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Transcripts

September 8, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· Primary election wrap-up
In-Studio Guests:
· Chuck Coughlin, political analyst;
· Robbie Sherwood, Legislative Reporter, Arizona Republic

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," the primary election netted wins for conservative challengers. We talk about this key legislative Republican primary race and all the results of yesterday's primary elections statewide as well as in Maricopa County, what they may mean for the race in November. That's next on "Horizon."

Good evening. I'm Michael Grant. The outcome of Arizona's primary election places some conservative GOP lawmakers firmly in office. That means the party pendulum at the legislature is swinging back from moderate to the right. One race that was a microcosm of that conservative-moderate conflict was in legislative District 20 in the East Valley. Producer Merry Lucero tells us about that race.

>> Reporter:
Tuesday the sun sets on another chance to cast a ballot as the polls close on primary election day, barely 20% of the 2.4 million Arizona registered voters exercised that right. For some hanging out at Coffee Society in Ahwatukee where you can get a flavored tobacco hookah pipe with your Java, the opportunity to vote went up in smoke.

>> James Tomlin:
Literally there's no excuse. I just didn't do it.

>> Reporter:
Did you vote today?

>> Daniel Ashcroft:
Today I didn't, no.

>> Reporter:
Why not?

>> Daniel Ashcroft:
It's a bad excuse, but I was actually working all day. When I got off work, I still probably could have, I still had enough time, but I had a pretty worn day and just pretty much went home and crashed out. So I probably should have.

>> James Tomlin:
No, no, no, I should have voted today. I should have. That's one thing that I value most about us as Americans, is that we have that right to choose who is going to be running, who is going to be protecting us, and I think that if we have the chance we don't, then we don't have a right to criticize. I want to criticize. So, unfortunately, I don't get that right this time.

>> Reporter:
Not all 20-somethings bailed on voting. Kari Shekerjian did get to the polls.

>> Kari Shekerjian:
I think it's a shame when people don't vote and they complain about the parties or the people that are in the positions they are, and I think it's -- I just think it's important for people my age to vote.

>> Reporter:
A resident of legislative district 20, she voted for John Huppenthal. Her biggest influence in that decision?

>> Kari Shekerjian:
To be honest, I trust my mom's opinion on the people I vote for because she knows them. When I get a chance to meet them, she goes this is a nice person, I'll take that as a mental note. That's mostly why I voted for him.

>> Huppenthal party participant in front of computer, reading results:
Look at that!

>> Huppenthal party participant:
Great! Whoa!

>> Huppenthal party participant:
Yea!

>> Reporter:
And so did about 60% of the voters in district 20, which takes in Ahwatukee and parts of Chandler and Tempe. The campaign for that Senate seat was one of a few higher profile races in this primary. Incumbent Slade Mead is known as a moderate and one of a few Republican allies for Governor Napolitano. John Huppenthal held a Senate seat from 1992 to 2000, term limited out and was elected to the House of Representatives. He left that seat to challenge Mead. Their views differ widely.

>> John Huppenthal:
We're very deep in the hole right now, and we need to be just very careful moving forward. We can't afford to start up any new programs until we're sure we have some positive cash.

>> Slade Mead:
I guess I'm more worried about the direction the state is going to go in. I really worry about what we're going to be doing with our children in this state, and when I look up at the makeup of the legislature, I don't see public schools doing very well and I don't see things like CPS doing very well, and I hope that we don't go backwards.

>> Reporter:
Going forward this, race is decided since there were no challengers from other parties, but November will bring the real test for others.

>> Daniel Ashcroft:
Right.

>> Reporter:
Your next chance to vote will be in November. Will you vote in that one?

>> Daniel Ashcroft:
Yes, definitely.

>> Reporter:
Why do you feel more confident you're going to do that?

>> Daniel Ashcroft:
Why? Honestly I feel it's just more important election.

>> Reporter:
The general election is Tuesday November 2nd.

>> Michael Grant:
Here to talk about yesterday's primary, Chuck Coughlin. He is political analyst with High Ground, a political consulting firm. Chuck, good to see you again.

>> Chuck Coughlin
: Good to see you, Michael.

>> Michael Grant:
You know, Slade Mead, John Huppenthal had a debate on the program a couple weeks ago and Mead was very candid that if the independents and moderates didn't show up he was going to lose. And he lost.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
He did. He did. And that's typical of a Republican primary, when you have an 18% turnout, people are going to vote their pocketbook and vote their budget issues and I think the issue that clearly went across the board in all the Republicans primaries was the notion that we can't spend more than we take in, and that's -- that was a Huppenthal issue. That resonated in other races. The candidates had voted for the governor's budget went down, and their challengers succeeded. That's what's going to happen in that spectrum of the Republican electorate that's a primary voting Republican electorate that says we're not going to spend more than we take in. Simple proposition and simple people and they get that message.

>> Michael Grant:
Was it a double killer that the primary was the day after Labor Day? I mean, if you're a moderate running that particular day?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
Sure. It's always hard -- the most difficult thing in an election is to get people who are unaffiliated voter to go out and vote. It's easier, in my mind, to get a moderate voter, somebody who is middle of the road, undecided, who has a voting history, to actually change their mind on an issue because they are paying attention to the messages. They're culturally in tune. That's what they do. They vote. They participate in that. Independents typically unaffiliated do not respond in those primary messages to the kind of visceral things that happen in a primary. You get discussion of pro-life issues. You get discussion of gun control issues. You get discussion of budget issues. You know, gay marriage issues, those kind of culturally conservative issues that get discussed in a primary and are viscerally responsive to about 18 to 20% of the electorate and those are the people that come out to vote.

>> Michael Grant:
To a certain extent, if either by default or by choice you declare independent, it would seem to me psychologically consistent you're going to say for most primaries that's the game that I chose not to play in. I'm not in the R game, not in the D game, as a comment was made on tape.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
I think that's --

>> Michael Grant:
And November is the important election.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
That's what they generally say, I get turned off by that divisive primary type battle. The interesting thing, though, if you look at the numbers in that race, Slade tried to turn out independent voters. The net effect of, I believe, a Mead campaign was that he turned out independent voters which ended up flipping the house race around. Anton ORLICK was ahead earlier in the night, went to bed with a lead. This morning that flipped when the county recorder's office started counting the independent votes in that district. Now I think he has about 196 --

>> Michael Grant:
With about a thousand or so we think remaining to be counted of the 200 votes in a universe of a thousand is tough to make up.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
Hard margin to make up. Plus the early ballot count at the beginning of the night, if you looked at that race, both candidates were about neck and neck on early ballots. They were very competitive with one another.

>> Michael Grant:
Did the budget result… revolt in May particularly energize the right wing of the Republican Party?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
Yeah, I think it did. I think it did. I think the lack of the ability of the caucus to build a consensus and then with some of the members walking on that budget, I believe it was a message sending experience. Now, it probably will be revisited during leadership discussions down there this fall in how that materializes. You know, the big discussion within the Republican Party is how you bridge that cultural divide. There's moderate Republicans, there's conservative Republicans. I think they all generally agree being fiscally responsible is a good message and not spending more than you take in. And so how they bridge that gap is going to be a huge discussion this fall.

>> Michael Grant:
Chuck, as you know, though, a lot of this stuff gets pretty down and dirty. The Republicans keep talking about enlarging their tent. Doesn't this shrink their tent?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
You know, it does, but I think what Republicans would say in the big sense is that, you know, I'm going to go win that primary, I'm going to win it on principle, I'm going to win the argument on principle, and I'm going to stick with my principle and the principle in this case is I'm not going to spend more money than I take in. So they're going to stick to their guns on that. And as Slade said in the set-up piece you did tonight, I'm worried about the future. If you're worried about the future, reform the tax code. Make it more competitive. Create more jobs. Create more economic opportunity. I think there's other ways to do that other than to put the state in a debt position.

>> Michael Grant:
This build any momentum for George Bush in November? Of course, we got poll results today that indicated in this state he got quite a bounce out of the convention, but is this a one-day phenomena or does this roll a little bit toward 55 days from now?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
55 days is a short time period. I think it has to roll some. It demonstrates that part of the 18, 20% of the Republican Party is solid. But general elections are different experiences. General elections you have a lot of different issues, lot of different people coming to the polls. The president, in order to succeed in Arizona, has to do well in Maricopa County and not do poorly in Pima County. I haven't seen any numbers in Pima County recently, but generally speaking, for a presidential campaign to be successful out here you have to pull about 56, 57, 55 in Maricopa County --

>> Michael Grant:
In fact, I think that was the 2000 result. I think bush won Maricopa by 7 and the state by 3, something like that.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
And you -- you have to minimize your loss in Pima County. I think the state's still in play in a presidential election based upon the issue that, you know, you have a Pima County vote and you have an urbanizing Maricopa County that -- I think the trend could shift but the president looks good right now. He's running a solid campaign. Had a great convention, they stuck to the message. I think that energized the electorate, too.

>> Michael Grant:
Stayed on time.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
Stayed on time.

>> Michael Grant:
Both conventions stayed on time. You could have set your clock by the way they ran those things. Let's shift to the congressional stuff. Interesting race between Jeff flake and Stan Barnes in the East Valley. Both have very solid conservative credentials. Is the lesson of this, because, of course, Jeff flake won it, you don't knock off an incumbent congressman in the primary?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
I think it's hard to knock off an incumbent congressman if they break their word. Jeff never broke his word. Went to Washington. Said he's going to vote against pork. Said he's going to vote for smaller government. Going to be a conscience of the Republican Party on the right. So -- and he did that. He did that throughout the entire time that he was there. Stan rightfully took him to task on some issues with regards to supporting our troops on a budget -- on an issue there, but I think what people got in the East Valley, and, again, in an 18% turnout, people are going to pay attention to the messages. I don't think anybody in that election, while they felt Jeff may have not done the job they wanted him to do, I don't think anybody could say that Jeff didn't do the job that he said he was going to do.

>> Michael Grant:
J.D. Hayworth just blows away O'Connell. What was that about 4 to 1 or so?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
Yeah.

>> Michael Grant:
I was a little surprised by that. I expected J.D. to win but not 4-1.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
Not by that slugger's margin? I tell you, he is the best campaigner in the state. He takes nothing for granted. He works hard. He comes back to the district all the time. He's very in touch with the issues of the state and what's going on here. And he's working hard. I don't think he takes anything for granted. I think he's the hardest working politician in the state. He's a force to be reckoned with. I think that race should serve notice to that.

>> Michael Grant:
I was going to say, was this basically a staging plan for 2006 in the governor's race?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
I don't know.

>> Michael Grant:
What do you hear recently?

>> Chuck Coughlin:
He's the most frequently mentioned name out there, although to give up the Congressional seat he's going to have a great seat in Congress next time on the Ways and Means committee, he's risen in seniority where he can really help Arizona in a lot of ways. It would be a big sacrifice for him not only financially but to step away from that ability to help Arizona in that way to come back and I think that's a decision he's probably weighing right now.

>> Michael Grant:
Rick Murphy throws half a million bucks at Trent Franks and doesn't make much of a dent.

>> Chuck Coughlin:
And I think you have to give people -- you got to give an opponent a dent, you have to give them an angle to put a petition in. I don't think Franks did that. Franks was the deciding vote in the Medicare bill which could have been critical in the race, on a prescription drug bill, if he didn't go there. He voted for the president's package. It passed. And I think if he had gone a different direction he might have had a different vote. The demographics of that district are heavily senior. A lot of folks on prescription drugs. But, again, Trent served his district and Trent has been out there working on the district, working on Luke Air Force Base, working on prescription drugs for seniors, working on healthcare issues. I think a lot of people thought Trent would go to Washington and wave the conservative social Banner around that people were familiar with him out here in Arizona, but you know, he matured as a congressman in that way and he understands there are other issues, not those haven't been important to him, and they continue to be important to him but he devoted time and resources to do other issues that are important to the district, too.

>> Michael Grant:
Chuck Coughlin, good to see you.

Although there were no major upsets, few races for Maricopa County offices grabbed attention. Sheriff, county attorney, county assessor were among them. In a moment, more on those. First, here's a rundown of how those races shook out.

>> Reporter:
With more than 115,000 votes, Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio beat challenger Dan Saban in the race for sheriff. It was a comfortable victory with 56% of the votes. Saban had 91,000 votes. Arpaio faces Democrat Robert Ayala and Independent W. Steven Martin in the general election. In the race for County Attorney, Andrew Thomas came out on top of the six-way Republican race with 29% of the votes. The closest behind was Andrew Pacheco with 24%. The democratic nomination went to Don Harris with nearly 42,000 of the 73,000 votes in that race. For Maricopa County assessor, Republican voters chose Keith Russell 56 to 44% with more than 20,000 votes over incumbent Kevin Ross, who is facing a criminal indictment.

>> Michael Grant:
There is more to say about those county races. Here with insights on those and the rest of the primary, particularly the legislature… Robbie Sherwood, Legislative Reporter for the Arizona Republic. Good work in this morning's paper. Keep your eyes open, would you?

>> Robbie Sherwood:
I'm trying.

>> Michael Grant:
Wake up.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
I just had a cup of coffee. I'm doing the best I can.

>> Michael Grant:
Russell launched a last-minute phone blitz reminding people that there was an indictment hanging around here?

>> Robbie Sherwood:
Yeah, he seemed to be avoiding the opportunity on -- to use that information until the very end. I think he probably realized his race depended on it, went ahead and, like probably any challenger facing an opponent under an indictment, did -- used it against him. I guess I'm just overly cynical. I'm surprised it worked after having witnessed the Jim Irvin reelection with all that was hanging over his head as a Corporation Commissioner and seeing him reelected. I was surprised by that outcome as I was any other one I saw last night.

>> Michael Grant: Shifting to county attorney, Andrew Thomas obviously has a very strong platform on the right side of the party. I thought when that turned into a six-way primary it was pretty much a forgone conclusion he was going to take it. Quite honestly the surprise in that race to me was that Pacheco did fairly well.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
Andrew Pacheco ran a strong race. He just had five problems. That was the other people in that race, the crowded field in -- Chuck I think hit the nail on the head about the low turnout and how well conservatives can do. Andy Thomas staked out that ground. Although I think -- part of Pacheco's success is he's not so squishy himself, at least in terms of this campaign. And he had some good help and I think that the feeling about him is that he has a future in Arizona Public Service. Just not this time around.

>> Michael Grant:
On the D side of that race, Don Harris takes it from Jonathan Warshaw. There's a theory floating around that maybe because Thomas is so conservative that ala the 2000 Attorney General race that that might give Harris a boost. I just don't know that I see Don Harris and Terry Goddard, who won the general on the same level.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
They are nowhere near the same guys. Don Harris is a character. You're astounded that he would enter public life, I guess -- at least trying to go after a county attorney's race after his long history as a defense attorney and with some kind of controversial clientele that he had there. But if you read his quote in today's paper, you know, our reporter asked him, how do you feel after your win, he basically used it as a personal ad for himself. So he called himself the most eligible bachelor, I'm rich, I have money, a house in Vancouver, I'm the most eligible bachelor in the county, I guess. Great, you know -- what are you going to do as a county attorney.

>> Michael Grant:
Particularly with reference to the house in Vancouver, I was expecting a Travelocity spot in there. A strange response.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
Yeah, so the game plan for what happened with Goddard may not be as easy to pull off where you're going to see a lot of crossover of moderate -- those moderate Republicans who set this out -- sat this out being so scared of some of the things that Andy Thomas has said, done and written about in his past that they turn around and vote for the Democrat. It may not be so easy this time.

>> Michael Grant:
Sheriff's result, best we can say, it proves Joe Arpaio is a mere mortal politician?

>> Robbie Sherwood:
Yeah, you know, if you want to call a double digit win a close call, but, yeah, I think that Dan Saban ran about as good a campaign against this sheriff as you could. He had issues. There's no lack of ammunition on the way the sheriff has run his jails and some of the things that have happened there, but sheriff Joe is not just a politician. He's a legitimate celebrity. He's -- he has one of the highest name I.D. of any politician in the state except for maybe John McCain and our governor and it's hard enough to beat an incumbent, Chuck talked well about that, it's even harder when that incumbent is as well-known as Joe Arpaio.

>> Michael Grant:
Well, and has pulled approval -- polled approval ratings sometimes into the low 90s. It's been absolutely remarkable.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
Opposite a bad day.

>> Michael Grant:
Legislature, boy, the -- that house revolt, Chuck and I were talking about this, in May, it really seems to have particularly energized the right wing of the party.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
It did. They showed up and they showed some folks the door. There were four house incumbents who were part of that revolt. You have Phil Hanson in 9, you have, let's see --

>> Michael Grant:
Clancy JAYNE --

>> Robbie Sherwood:
In district 6. Bill Arnold in -- I think he's 12. Deb Gull was already gone. Carol Hubs in 4. They were targeted. There were a lot of races targeted but these were incumbents who were in the sights of some of these socially conservative, anti-abortion, anti-illegal immigration, they used those issues as a wedge in this low turnout and picked those people off quite easily. It's really going to change the tenor down there and make it pretty tough, I believe, the next couple years for the governor's agenda. I think she had it pretty easy the last couple years.

>> Michael Grant:
Incidentally, did she have a press conference today? I heard some comments -- she admitted it was going to be a little rougher around Bush trying to -- trying to put the best face on it she could.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
You almost stole the lead off my story. She put her brave face on the results. I think she was hoping for a lot better from her point of view. But she said the last two years has been no picnic, either. There was a center to work. I think a large part of the political center where she does her best business is gone, and she's going to have to find a new tactic to deal with this legislature, and she's going to be confronted with some bills that she could count on law makers to kill before it ever got to her desk, things like some of the tax cuts, expanding tuition tax credits, giving some tax cuts like the sales factor to business, things like that, that she really doesn't want to have to veto in -- coming up in an election year, or sign. She doesn't like the policies very much of either. So it's going to be interesting for the next couple of years.

>> Michael Grant:
The JAYNE result up in North Phoenix surprised me a little bit because even though he was in the so-called house budget revolt, he really has very solid conservative credentials on a lot of other subjects.

>> He really had accidents being lumped in with this moderate group. He likes to say that he scores 100% on the center for Arizona policy's scorecard for social issues, but they backed his opponent Pamela Gorman mostly because he bucked some house leaders that groups like that like on the budget. And he made some mistakes. He was a privately funded candidate who spent a part of his war chest, about $20,000, really before the race even started, and on things that weren't related to the campaign like some travel and things you can spend it on, but -- in a clean elections society we have here, whereas candidates -- his opponents were getting matched, the net effect was that he was -- he was outspent by Pamela Gorman two to one, and when it counted.

>> Michael Grant:
Ron Gould replacing Linda Bender, did the two house incumbents forget he was in the race or what?

>> Robbie Sherwood:
I think a lot of people did except the folks in Lake Havasu city who turned out strongly to vote for this man. It was a three-way primary but in most people's minds it was a two-way primary to replace Linda Bender. She's the other half of Thelma and Louise, they raised so much cane at the legislature over budget. She chose to retire and take herself out of the game and was backing big Wagner from the house to replace her. Wagner was being challenged by Joe Hart, a conservative. Two lawmakers, high name I.D. This guy named Ron Gould come out of nowhere.

>> Michael Grant:
Flies a confederate flag on July 4.

>> Robbie Sherwood:
That was making the rounds. I believe I got some pictures in the mail of that. He's very much into the gun rights, second amendment, abortion -- the same issues that so many of those other candidates were elected on but he just defied conventional wisdom because when you have two conservatives in a race you think they'll bump into each other and the moderate wins. Not this time.

>> Michael Grant:
Robbie Sherwood, thank you so much. To see transcripts about "Horizon," to find out about upcoming topics, visit the website. That address has changed. It's www.azpbs.org. Click on "Horizon," follow the links. Tomorrow Governor Janet Napolitano joins us for her monthly visit to "Horizon." You can send us a question for the governor via e-mail at horizon@ASU.EDU.

>> Moderates in the state legislature suffer losses in this week's primary election. How will that impact Governor Janet Napolitano's legislative agenda? Meanwhile the governor says she's against state lawmakers getting a pay raise and the governor's drought plan is out. All topics for Governor Janet Napolitano, Thursday at 7:00 on Channel 8's "Horizon" program.

>> Michael Grant:
Tomorrow following "Horizon" stayed tuned for "Horizonte," the program covering Arizona issues through a Hispanic lens. Thanks for joining us this evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

 

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