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September 28, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· KAET-ASU Poll;
· Proposition 103
In-Studio Guests:
· Bruce Merrill, Director, KAET-ASU poll and political science professor, Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication
· Tara Blanc, KAET-ASU poll assistant;
· Lester Pearce, North Mesa justice of the peace Lester Pearce, former presiding justice of the peace for Maricopa County;
· Richard Tracy, retired City Court Judge

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon", the latest KAET ASU poll shows President Bush widening his lead against democratic challenger senator John Kerry in Arizona. The poll also looks at support for major ballot propositions. Plus, a closer look at proposition 103, which would remove the requirement that only attorneys can serve as temporary justices of the peace.

>> Underwriter:
Horizon is made possible by the friends of Channel 8, members who provide financial support to this Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. Welcome to "Horizon". President Bush is doing better in Arizona, and support remains solid for proposition 200. But voters don't want to give state lawmakers a pay raise. Those are the latest results of the KAET-TV Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University poll. We talked to 553 registered Arizona voters from September 23rd to the 26th which resulted in a poll with a margin of error of 4.1%. We'll get an analysis of the poll, but first, here are the results.

>> Mike Sauceda:
the poll shows President Bush with an 11 point lead over senator John Kerry.
49% of those polled say they will vote for Bush. 38% support Kerry. 1% would vote for the Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik, while 12% remain undecided.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Support for each candidate is rock solid. 93% of those supporting Bush are firm in their support, while 7% might change their mind. 86% of Kerry supporters plan to stick with him, while 14% might have a change of heart. We asked voters what they think about the job the president is doing. Bush's overall approval rating is 51%, with 46% disapproving of his performance. 46% of those polled approved of the president's performance on the U.S. economy, while 48% disapproved. 54% approve of the President's handling of the war against terrorism. 44% did not approve. And 47% approved of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, while 50% do not approve.

>> Mike Sauceda:
We polled voters about how they plan to vote on four Arizona propositions. Proposition 101 will require voter-approved issues to have their own funding source. 49% plan vote for that, 15% say they plan to vote against it, while 36% are undecided. Proposition 102 would allow universities to own interest
in private companies when the companies are using technology developed by the universities. 52% of those surveyed plan to vote for that. 24% say they will vote no, while 24% remain undecided. Support for proposition 200 remains strong. It would deny certain services to illegal immigrants who require documentation when registering to vote and when voting. 63% of those polled support the measure, 23% do not, while 14% haven't made up their minds. Finally, we asked voters how they plan to cast ballots on proposition 300, which would provide a $12,000 pay raise to state lawmakers. 36% support the measure, 47% do not, while 17% don't know how they will vote on that issue.

>> Michael Grant:
Joining me now is Bruce Merrill, director of the KAET-ASU poll and a political science professor in the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. Also here is Tara Blanc, KAET-ASU poll assistant. Tara, you cracked the whip on the volunteers this time.

>> Tara Blanc:
We did. They did a great job.

>> Michael Grant:
553 responses.

>> Tara Blanc:
People were anxious to talk this time.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Volunteers are all quitting, Mike, but we'll have a good poll this week.

>> Michael Grant:
There will be no October poll.

>> Michael Grant:
Thank you, Tara, we appreciate that. I'm seeing a nexus here between Senator Kerry pulling his ads in the state and our poll result. Am I over thinking this one?

>> Bruce Merrill:
No, not at all. All of our polls have basically showed Bush ahead 5 to 8 percentage points. That's not outside what we call statistical error, so we couldn't really say he was clearly ahead. This poll, he has 11% advantage among all registered voters and 15% advantage among those most likely to vote. There is no question that he has taken a very strong position in Arizona and it's going to take a lot to reverse that. I would be surprised if Kerry is able to come back from that much of a deficit.

>> Michael Grant:
Crossover democratic voters figuring strongly in this equation?

>> Bruce Merrill:
That's where it's coming from. By a Two to one margin, about 15% of the Democrats in Arizona say they are going to vote for Bush, only about 7% of the Republicans are going to vote for Kerry. When you're a minority party, as the Democrats are in Arizona, you can't afford to lose more of your people defecting than the Republicans.

Michael Grant:
Tara, was it '96 that we had soccer moms? '92, '96?

>> Tara Blanc:
It's actually been more recent than that.
It was in effect in Janet Napolitano's winning the governor's election, I think.
>> Michael Grant: I tend to associate it first with the Clinton campaign. In any event, in 2004, the term has been "security moms". Did it play in this poll?

>> Tara Blanc:
It didn't in this, we didn't find any difference between men and women in the presidential vote, but there has been a lot of talk about aiming campaigns specifically at women, that women who have children in that same sort of demographic as the soccer mom, but the security moms come from for a lot of women, the importance of health and education issues have been replaced by need for security.

>> Michael Grant:
Concerned about terrorism?

>> Tara Blanc:

Yes. But then you find the split because women are concerned who have children or spouses or brothers and sisters that are serving in Iraq. There has been concern about the safety of the family members who are there as opposed to those who are looking at the safety of the family members here. There's a lot of issues involved in the security mom thing, but it's become a real target for both sides to get the vote of that demographic.

>> Michael Grant:
Bruce, we have been finding consistently, for lack of a better term, polarization. Maybe stated another way, very strong commitments on both sides to their man. That concept continuing to be reinforced here?

>> Bruce Merrill:
94% of Bush people say they are not going to change and 86, 87% of Kerry's people. People have very, very strong attitudes. There's not much of an undecided vote left, 7, 8%. Most of those people aren't undecided, they are people that are not very well informed and won't vote on election day.

>> Michael Grant:
We have talked about approval rating is the single most prevalent pointing factor if you're going to win or going to lose, and the president's approval rating above 50% in this poll.

>> Bruce Merrill:
It is, and the overall rating is important, the economy is important, domestic issues are important. We are finding, when you're at war, the overriding issue is being at war. And as Tara talked about, the security issue, people being safe. I think basically this is coming down to a choice between who is the best time war-time president. I think people have, the Kerry people really have not convinced the American people that Kerry is the better choice than Bush to lead us in time of war. And I think that's going be the biggest issue.

>> Michael Grant:
This is a conjecture question. We are moving up on a foreign policy debate. Got a strong lightning strike? Could you move this result? If John Kerry performs, if he drives the ball out of the stadium on security, Iraq?

>> Bruce Merill:
He would have to do that. Tara is more trained than I am in that area, and I'm sure she has a comment on that. There was a national poll today that asked who people thought was going to win the debate and it was 2-1 Bush. The mind-set of the American people is already in favor of Bush. There is not much undecided vote out there. Kerry would have to do something so remarkable to change this, and I don't see it happening. Tara might have a feeling.

>> Tara Blanc:
One of the things we talked about quite a bit is the fact that there's a lot of people that are very upset with Bush, but they still for whatever reason don't see John Kerry as a viable alternative, whether he hasn't presented enough specifics or he hasn't come across enough in terms of character or personality, whatever those reasons are. I don't know in the debate he is going to be strong enough to turn that.

>> Michael Grant:
This was an articulated concern for a long time in relation to the Kerry campaign that he was pulling his support primarily from people who didn't like George Bush as opposed to affirmatively pulling them --

>> Tara Blanc:
Anybody but Bush.

>> Michael Grant:
Yeah, because you like the candidate. And that's not a very good platform to attract the middle of the spectrum.

>> Tara Blanc:
Especially when you're the challenger trying to unseat the incumbent. The incumbent always has the advantage, especially in this kind of situation, a wartime situation. The known, even if you don't like it, is a better alternative than the unknown.

>> Michael Grant:
Bruce, given the strong support on both sides for the candidate, if it's even, if the expectation it was even remarkable performance by either one would be greeted by movement.

>> Bruce Merrill:
I don't see much movement occurring. It's kind of sad we call them debates, they aren't really debates.

>> Michael Grant:
Press conferences.

>> Bruce Merrill:
They really are. And the issue really becomes one again of style and leadership. And that's where I think it's going to be hard for Kerry. People aren't really affected by as much about what they say substantively, it's how they present it, are they tough, do they look each other in the eye, are
they aggressive. I think that's where Kerry is going to have to show he can stand up to Bush, not so much in what he says.

>> Michael Grant:
Flashing back to 1960, make sure you wear make-up. Tara, let's go to some of the propositions. Proposition 200, protect Arizona now. This result pretty consistent with the one last time?

>> Tara Blanc:
It is, in terms of the approval rating, pretty much same across the board last month. 63% said they will vote for it. 23 won't, and 14% undecided.

>> Michael Grant:
We have asked the question both ways, the support on proposition 200, I seem to recall on another poll we described the component parts.

>> Tara Blanc:
It's evident that the support is there. It's across the board, not really divided by party, it's support is stronger is among Republicans and conservative, two-thirds of the Democrats we polled said they will vote for this initiative.

>> Michael Grant:
We have previously to attempt to ascertain what the Hispanic level of support might be. Were we able to do that here?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Since it's been so consistent, we took all of the polls and pulled the Hispanics out of all three so that we have a fairly large sample. From what it looks like for us, it's about a third of the Hispanics are actually voting for this thing. And that's not surprising. The people that come across the border illegally from Mexico are probably most likely to compete for jobs already being held by Hispanics. So we don't think that's really surprising.

>> Michael Grant:
The so-called tech transfer amendment that would allow universities to take stock in exchange for information change, that's being overwhelmingly supported.

>> Tara Blanc:
Our poll showed that 51% of the people said that they would vote for it. I'm not sure that people really know what you're talking about on this proposition or as familiar with this proposition as they might be for proposition 200. I think the sense is that universities need to be able to capitalize on the technology they develop. And looking at a way in which the technology can be transferred not to just the big corporations that can afford to pay the licensing fees, but the smaller companies who can take the technology and run with it and the university can grow along with this company. There are those who believe there is a an opportunity for crony-ism and some fraud -- not fraud, but favoritism and the fact whether it would be out on bid or whatever.
But I think overall people are pretty supportive of the idea.

>> Michael Grant:
They apparently do not like the pay raise thing. Although this result was a little closer than I anticipated.

>> Tara Blanc:
36% of the people said they would support a pay raise from 24 to 36,000 a year for state legislators. Again, there's a sense out there, you've got two camps, people who work hard and deserve more money and others say they work half-time and can't even get a budget together, why should we raise their salaries.

>> Michael Grant:
On that positive and uplifting note, Tara Blanc, thank you very much for joining us.

>> Tara Blanc:
Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Bruce Merrill, good to see you again. I guess next month will be the last of our cycle.

>> Bruce Merrill:
It will be the last election poll. We'll do it about 10 days before the election. We're excited to see what will happen.

>> Michael Grant:
We're excited to see if any volunteers show up.

>> Tara Blanc:
Thanks to the ones who did.

>> Michael Grant:
Arizona voters will decide the qualifications for those who serve as temporary justices of the peace. Justice courts have been around since territorial days and handle 94% of cases in Arizona's judicial system. Justices of the peace are elected. The qualifications are minimal: 18 years of age or older, and a person of good moral standing. The job pays well, up to $85,000 a year. Part-time justices of the peace or pro temps make about $40 an hour, making it a coveted part-time job. The same qualifications used to apply to temporary justices of the peace. But an administrative order from the Supreme Court two years ago allowed only attorneys to serve as justices of the peace pro tem proposition 103 seeks to eliminate that requirement by asking voters to change the constitution specifying that pro tem JP's need only to have the same qualifications as elected justices of the peace. We'll get to debate on the proposition in just a moment. But first, Paul Atkinson looks at why the measure is on the ballot.

>> Paul Atkinson:
This is Scottsdale justice court a couple years ago. On the bench, Jerry Porter, an attorney appointed by the Superior Court. Porter replaced a Justice of the Peace who had so many complaints about his conduct he was removed from the bench and resigned. Supreme Court Chief Justice Charles Jones is ultimately in charge of supervising all
courts in Arizona. In a June 2002 letter to Colin Campbell, presiding judge of Maricopa County Superior Court, Jones listed the need to reform justice courts, saying over the past 30 months eight of Maricopa County's 46 limited jurisdiction courts, more than one in six have had serious operational administrative or misconduct problems. Jones goes on to cite the following problems: A Chandler JP sentenced to federal prison for fraud, a Scottsdale JP removed for unprofessional conduct, a Phoenix JP removed for tardiness and improper conduct, a Glendale Justice court clerk sentenced to prison for fraud and bribery. The high court has tried to push justice court reform through the legislature, but has been defeated every time by Justices of the Peace who may serve in the lowest courts but have significant political clout. During the period of these reform efforts, the question of who can serve as temporary justices of the peace was brought to the high court's attention, causing the chief justice to further investigate. In a memorandum dated June 21st, 2002, Jones writes, article 6, section 31, provides that all pro tem judges appointed at any level be members of the bar in good standing and meet the other requirements of Section 22. Some have read the Massey case, in which the Supreme Court found that the use of the phrase, Courts inferior to the Superior Court through the constitution excludes justice courts. However, section 31 uses different and broader language, Courts inferior to the Supreme Court. Justice Courts are clearly governed by the provisions of Section 31 due to this broader language. The accompanying administrative order mandated that only lawyers could be appointed pro tem justices of the peace causing those who weren't to lose their part-time jobs. Lawmakers sought to reverse that, by putting a proposed amendment to the constitution directly to voters. Now voters will decide if temporary justices of the peace should be attorneys or have minimal qualifications to serve the same as full-time justices of the peace.

>> Michael Grant:
Joining me now to debate proposition 103 is North Mesa justice of the peace Lester Pearce. Judge Pearce is the former presiding justice of the peace for Maricopa County and favors the constitutional amendment. Opposing proposition 103 is retired City Court Judge Richard Tracy. Judge Tracy is a member of the bar and served on a court reform committee chaired by then Senator Sandra Day O'Connor. Thanks to both of you joining us. Judge Pearce, why should people vote to amend the constitution on prop 103?

>> Lester Pearce:
The constitution was written as we know in 1912 and has endured all the time of judges pro tems not being attorneys. 1960, there was a massive amendment to the constitution, in article 6, which is your judicial section. It's been interpreted 42 years as pro tem judges not having to be attorneys. Even in 1996 there was the Massey case, a lawsuit where the Supreme Court ruled that article 22 did not refer to justice of the peace courts. Therefore, they have always had these non-attorney pro tems. In the rural areas, especially -- it's not so bad in Maricopa County because there's plenty of attorneys, as everybody knows, you can find pro tems, but you go in the rural areas, you may have one or two attorneys in the whole community, and sometimes none. You have to bring an attorney from miles away to pro tem or that judge can't take vacation or be sick.

>> Michael Grant:
Are those the circumstances where you have a pro tem JP, vacation, illness?

>> Lester Pearce:
They're used in three areas. Pro tems are used for vacation, illness and continuing education.

>> Michael Grant:
Judge Tracy, let me invite you in here. Why is this a bad idea, in your opinion?

>> Richard Tracy:
In 1960, the modern courts amendment was enacted in Arizona, as well as most of the other states in the country which had not gone into a modern court system. They grandfathered in the JP and within a generation all of the people sitting on the bench and having the jurisdiction of a judge, the ability to arrest, the ability to put in jail, the ability to take funds away from somebody, they were all required to be lawyers. Arizona, the effort was blocked. All of the cities amended their charters that I know of to require that a person be an attorney and have at least two years of practice before he could become a municipal court judge. And they did that with the help of Bobby Kennedy who felt that it was time for people to move ahead in the legal system and be assured their rights when they went to court. Arizona resisted that. Senator O'Connor, who is now Justice O'Connor, headed a legislative judicial committee. We were going to put it into effect, it would apply only to Pima County and Maricopa County. Those two counties have doubled in population since 1974 when we knew a change had to be made, and yet we still have a system.

>> Michael Grant:
People should vote for this basically, because more broadly --

>> Richard Tracy:
Actually, this is a step backwards to enable legislators who only work half the year to maybe work part-time as a judge, because they don't have legal training, they would qualify. Otherwise, they wouldn't qualify.

>> Michael Grant:
Judge Tracy, doesn't it seem a little strange that the qualifications should be different? A permanent justice of the peace doesn't have to be a lawyer but to be filling in for three days of sick leave, you need to be an attorney?

>> Richard Tracy:
If a man, say he only comes into the court 20 times during the year, it's good that he has the legal education and knows what he is doing. He is going to get the salary of a professional, he should be a professional, not a brother-in-law or somebody in the investigation that was done by the Supreme Court. Prior to the time that this change was made, there were a lot of abuses found. A waste of taxpayers' money, especially in the smaller counties and we have had a lot of good people who took the job and found out that they couldn't handle it and either got removed, they violated regulations they didn't even know about.

>> Michael Grant:
Judge Pearce, what about that argument, that if you're bringing in somebody on short notice, better for them to know the legal ropes so in effect they don't mess up?

>> Lester Pearce:
Number one, there is not a pro tem judge that is not in ongoing training. There is a requirement that they do certain training before they are appointed. Even attorneys that wanted to be pro tem judges have to comply with that training. There are so many facets of the legal profession that someone can't just say, I've been through law school and I know what to do in Justice Court. They may know a little bit about the law in their area or a lot in another area. Justice courts take a lot of training. We are required to be trained as judges constantly, we have so many hours of Cojet training. It's not an easy job to get in there.

>> Michael Grant:
Why should an exception be made, though, for justice courts if generally across the board, with the exception of permanent JPs, you require people sitting on the bench to be attorneys?

>> Lester Pearce:
Let's start with the basics. Justice courts are in the most rural areas of Arizona. In the municipal court you have to have a city big enough to have a municipal court. In rural areas, down by Yuma
there's a little town. It doesn't have an attorney that lives in the town, but do have a JP. If that judge wants to go on vacation or is sick, there's nobody to cover for him.

>> Michael Grant:
Strong argument for not going on vacation. What about the rural issue?

>> Richard Tracy:
The U.S. Supreme Court in 1975 had said no one could be sentenced to jail unless the person who is on the bench was a lawyer. And the communities where they did not have lawyers, a lesser degree person who is trained could handle the case provided there was an immediate appeal available so that in JP court you can appeal within 10 days. So that appeal was available in the smaller communities but not in the large communities. It gets lost in the shuffle.

>> Michael Grant:
Judge Tracy, we are out of time. Thank you very much for the input. Judge Pearce, good to see you.

>> Lester Pearce:
Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Want more information on tonight's KAET-ASU poll? Check out the channel 8 website at its new address, www.az.pbs.org. If you click on "Horizon", you'll find poll results, transcripts and a list of upcoming show topics. If you want to see debates, we are the home for presidential debates. The first presidential debate is this Thursday. It covers foreign policy. On Tuesday, October 5th, is the one vice presidential debate. Friday, October 8th is the town hall format debate, covering all issues. And the final matchup between President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry is Wednesday, October 13th. That is the one here in Tempe. The topic: Domestic issues. All four debates begin at 6 p.m.

>> Merry Lucero:
Poverty and hunger in Arizona are on the rise. According to the census data, Arizona's poverty rate is higher than the national average. Organizations are working to shed light on the social and economic problems that lead to hunger and find solutions to help end hunger and poverty in our community. That story and others Wednesday on "Horizon".

>> Michael Grant:
Wednesday, proposition 105 which adds a couple seats to the State Board of Education. And a look at voter registration as the deadline draws near to register for the November election. Thank you very much for joining us on a Tuesday evening. I'm Michael Grant. I hope you have a great one. Good night.

 

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