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October 11, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· ASU Professor of Economics Edward C. Prescott wins the Nobel prize;
· Debate Preview;
· Debate Behind the Scenes
In-Studio Guests:
· Edward C Prescott, W. P. Carey Chair of Economics, Arizona State University and Nobel laureate;
· Neil Giuliano, Director, Community Relations and Development, Arizona State University;
· Brooks Simpson, Professor of History, Arizona State University

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon", an ASU professor of economics wins the Nobel prize. Only two days to go before the next historic debate in the 2004 presidential election. And a look at the impact and significance of past debates. Those stories are coming up.

>> Underwriter:
"Horizon" is made possible by the friend of Channel 8. Members who provide financial support to this Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. Today, ASU professor Edward C. Prescott was awarded the 2004 Nobel prize in economic sciences. It's the first ever Nobel prize received by an Arizona State University scholar. He shares the prize with Finn Kydland of Carnegie-Mellon University. Their work contributed to "dynamic macroeconomics, the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind the business cycles." Joining me now is the W. P. Carey chair of economics, Nobel laureate, Edward Prescott. Dr. Prescott, congratulations seems an inadequate term somehow, but congratulations.

>> Edward Prescott:
Thank you. It's exciting.

>> Michael Grant: I bet. You were awakened at 4:00?

>> Edward Prescott:
4 a.m. in the morning.

Michael Grant:
Can I safely assume that is one phone call you did not mind being awakened for?

>> Edward Prescott:
I did not mind one bit. I sort of kept myself prepped so I would wake up and hear things and I did.

Michael Grant:
How does this process work? You obviously knew that the decision was coming down today. But beyond that, do you know much about how it works?

>> Edward Prescott:
The committee mails out 500 nomination forms to leading economists throughout the world. Some fill it in, nominate one or two people or I guess they can nominate three. And from the set of nominated people each year the committee meets, they met this morning. And then makes the decision. Just to make sure there is no leak, when they walk out the door they announce it.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay. So there's no possibility, they don't hang around marshalling the forces, I take it.

>> Edward Prescott:
There is no period between when the decision is made and when it's announced.

>> Michael Grant:
You made the comment to me before we went on the air, this is my word, not yours, I forget the one that you mentioned, but you referred to it as kind of a validating --

>> Edward Prescott:
Validating, certifying that this is the research has resulted in something that is accepted as being
socially useful. And valuable in economics, which is basically an applied science.

>> Michael Grant:
How do you work with your co-contributor, Finn Kydland? How does that relationship work?

>> Edward Prescott:
First I returned to Carnegie Mellon and a faculty member and he was an advanced graduate student, and I ended up being his advisor. He arranged for me to go to Norway with my family in 1974-75. That's when we wrote one of the papers that is so important. A couple years later he joined the faculty at Carnegie Mellon. And there we did some collaboration.

>> Michael Grant:
This is a long-standing relationship.

>> Edward Prescott:
We didn't have much contact for about five years, then we visited at the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis one I was a consultant and we did more collaboration.

>> Michael Grant:
Is it possible for you to put in words that I can understand your theory?

>> Edward Prescott:
This is the logic of dynamic economic theory. We used to think in terms of policy as being what can you do to control the economy. Do we have to dampen the economy, do we have to stimulate the economy? The view is that the economy, by doing this we can make the economy perform better and have large social gain to the people. So thought about this. Then along came dynamic economic theory when they tried to, and the conclusions were, applying people into models and thinking about the problems they faced. Finn and I said, what is the implication of this? How do we go about collecting policy? What is analogous to trying to control or stabilize the economy.

>> Michael Grant:
It sounded to me like your theory was more focusing less on large major policy events and much more on the individual decisions that a variety of different people make and the economic results that those derive.

>> Edward Prescott:
There's lots of people in the United States and most countries and we think in terms of what policies or what policy -- we argue that rules are better than discretion. We don't think about what should you do in the current situation. Policy makers should say is this rule with this operating characteristics better than this rule? Not what should we do now, tell me now and tell me what will happen under these three alternatives and we'll pick the one that best achieves what society wants.

Michael Grant:
Dr. Prescott, again, congratulations. It's remarkable news and a remarkable achievement on your part.

Michael Grant:
The media have begun to arrive for Wednesday night's debate between President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry. This event will be held at Arizona State University at Gammage Auditorium. Producer Larry Lemmons followed governor Napolitano, as she got a tour of the facility last week.

>> Larry Lemmons:
A week before the presidential debate at ASU's Gammage Auditorium. ASU officials await the governor's arrival for a tour of the facility. Organizers say planning for the event has been an exercise in complexity.

>> Colleen Jennings-Roggensack:
This is about 1000 moving parts. It's about the media filing center, it's about working with security, making sure credentials are done, background checks, which the secret service handles. It's about making sure that we have an event in Gammage Auditorium that's televised even and yet we stage it as we would a Broadway show. And so all of those things come together. It's about making sure the press know what's happening and are informed. It's about making sure the community, the city of Tempe, knows what's happening and are informed because they will be impacted by this event. It's all of the moving parts and unlike the super bowl, we spent about 18 months in the planning process.

>>Larry Lemmons:
When Janet Napolitano arrives, the local press falls in line to follow the governor through the tour. The first stop is the auditorium itself where the candidates will debate. There has been some confusion over the availability of tickets.

>> Colleen Jennings-Roggensack:
The way the tickets go is all are divided into three compartments, one for the Republican party, one for the Democratic party and a third go to the commission on presidential debate. Out of the commission tickets are for the Arizona State University students, for the individuals that have helped us put on this debate. It is privately raised funds. That is where those funds go.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Earlier in the week, reconstruction of the auditorium allowed for the construction of platforms upon which the television networks will operate.

>> We were told the networks were probably, if they needed siding, they would bring that. We were told they would need a platform --

>> Larry Lemmons:
The governor is shown where she will be seated in the auditorium with the guests and dignitaries.

>> Governor Janet Napolitano:
Am I a guest or a dignitary?

>> Colleen Jennings-Roggensack:
This is your home, Governor. This is your house.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Outside the auditorium, Napolitano continues the tour to the media filing center. The center is south of the auditorium that will serve as the media center and spin alley. The media will watch the debate, file stories and afterwards conduct interviews.

>> Colleen Jennings Roggensack:
The press need to be able to leave the debate and come over here and file their stories. Both campaigns need to have surrogates or as we are used to calling them, pundits, leave the debate and come over here and visit spin alley and put their spin on what each of their candidates has said.

>> Larry Lemmons: The governor walks what will be spin alley on the night of the debate. She greets volunteers already at work. Crossing the length of the media filing center, Napolitano discusses the magnitude of the job required to organize this event.

>> Governor Janet Napolitano: Neil, how do you feel about this? It's an amazing effort.

>> Neil Giuliano: You called in January of 2003.

>> Governor Janet Napolitano: Right.

>> Neil Giuliano: And we were selected in November of 2003. We literally have been working on this a year, more than a year, with a lot of partners and a lot of support.

>> Larry Lemmons: The governor is confident visitors will leave with a good impression.

>> Governor Janet Napolitano:
First of all, I know they'll take away the impression that Arizona State University really put on a first class show. It will bring people to our state who probably haven't been here before and are relying on old stereotypes when in fact Arizona is making itself as we speak because of the growth, because of all the things that are happening. I think that people will come away with perhaps a greater perception of some of the political issues that are really important in the west and particularly in a border state like Arizona. It's attention to our state, attention to Arizona State University. Then for Arizonans, you know, there's an economic good economic impact for all the people coming in. I think the real benefit for Arizonans is having the center of American democracy being right here and in a sense being a part of it. So it's all very exciting, it's all good.

>> Michael Grant:
Neil Giuliano joins us now. He is the ASU director of community relations and development, and, of course, the former mayor of Tempe. Neil, been a long time.

>> Neil Giuliano:
Yes.

>> Michael Grant:
You said the campaign showed up. You've been rearranging things over the past 24 hour. What happened?

>> Neil Giuliano:
Some logistical issues on the site, with regard to the placement of trailers for their surrogate speakers.

>> Michael Grant:
These are the people who populate spin alley?

>> Neil Giuliano: Correct. The folks who have to provide information and data, all of the logistical information for both campaigns. We have done a little reconfiguring to make it work and it's all going to work out. We have a great team, really professional and outstanding team with partners in the community who made this work.

>> Michael Grant:
I want to talk a little bit about how we got to this point. The first part of that process was deciding We wanted to try to land the presidential debate.

>> Neil Giuliano:
That's a decision in itself. We thought about this way back in 1991. I was on the Council as director for federal relations at ASU and met with Janet Brown, the executive director of the commission on presidential debates. Talked about Arizona State University. She said that sounds great, submit a bid. We ran it up the flagpole and the university decided not to submit a bid then. I stayed in touch with Janet for the '96 cycle, the 2000 cycle. 2002, we had a new governor, energetic, and a new university president, Michael Crow, who said we should aspire to have national and international prominence, not just a regional prominence in the southwest. So everything sort of aligned. We got the go ahead from President Crow to prepare the bid. The governor was very supportive, Senator McCain was very supportive. We went through the process, 14 finalists, got selected, and here we are, two days from a historical event for Arizona and Arizona State University.

>> Michael Grant:
What are the mechanics of the bid process? What things do you stress? What things do you cover?

>> Neil Giuliano:
Kind of similar to a Super Bowl bid. They want to know the number of hotel rooms you have within a certain mile distance, they want to know the kind of transportation infrastructure you have, they want to know your experience with these events, they want to know your experience with law enforcement, high profile events where the Secret Service has been involved, and everything from when Vice President Gore was here for the Fiesta Bowl when Tennessee played to President Clinton's event, to when President Reagan was here, to Senator Goldwater's funeral at Gammage, the Super Bowl, Pope John Paul, II, all of that history speaks to having the professional experience to deal with anything that gets thrown your way from a logistical standpoint hosting this kind of event with this kind of magnitude.

>> Michael Grant:
The logistics I would think would be daunting, although you have listed several events that have been done.

>> Neil Giuliano:
This is different because it's shifting sand, as has been noted. It wasn't until after the Republican convention when both of the campaigns finally agreed to the whole series of debates and then our topic of course switched from foreign policy to domestic policy. Everything has come together in the last month or so. We have a great relationship right now. The commission is on site, the campaign representatives are on site, a lot of communication, it's going to be a stellar event.

>> Michael Grant:
And both campaigns announcing they're going to have some follow-up events, Republicans at BOB and Kerry at Tempe Beach. I thought that may throw a little twist.

>> Neil Giuliano:
For Secret Service perhaps and for security in logistic issues. For us on site at Gammage it doesn't, but in the broader picture it does. It gives our students and the community an opportunity to play a part in the democratic process. Which really is why you do this, you don't do it to just do it, it gives our students an opportunity to be up close and personal with history. I guarantee all these students will remember they were students when Senator Kerry and President Bush had their final debate at their university.

>> Michael Grant:
Thursday morning, going to think about a long weekend?

>> Neil Giuliano:
Long nap, maybe a long weekend.

Michael Grant:
Best of luck, a lot of stuff.

>> Neil Giuliano:
Thanks.

>> Michael Grant:
The debate this Wednesday night at Gammage will be the third and final meeting between President Bush and Senator Kerry. This kind of event has played an increasingly important role in presidential politics. In case you missed the last one Friday night in St. Louis, here's a short clip.

>> John Kerry:
Now the president wishes that I changed my mind. He wants you to believe that because he can't come here and tell you that he has created new jobs for America. He's lost jobs. He can't come here and tell you that he has created health care for Americans because we have 5 million Americans who have lost their health care. 96,000 of them right here in Missouri. He can't come here and tell you he has left no child behind because he didn't fund No Child Left Behind. So what does he do? He is trying to attack me.

>> George W. Bush:
He talks about a grand idea, let's have a summit. We're going to solve the problem in Iraq by holding a summit. What is he going to say to the people that show up to the summit? Join me in the wrong war at the wrong time in the wrong place. Risk your troops in a war you call a mistake? Nobody is going to follow somebody who doesn't believe we can succeed and somebody who says the war where we are is a mistake. I know how these people think. I meet with them all the time. I talk to Tony Blair all the time. They're not going to follow an American president who says follow me into a Mistake.

>> Michael Grant:
If you'd like to learn more about the role debates have played in American presidential election history, head down to the museum at Papago Park tomorrow night for a presentation by this man, Brooks Simpson. He's a professor of history at ASU. We chatted a couple weeks ago about debate history and I've been thinking about it ever since, Brooks.

>> Brooks Simpson:
It's been quite a series so far and we're going to
see a bang-up debate this Wednesday.

Michael Grant:
You think conventional wisdom is correct in who won, who lost so far, right?

>> Brooks Simpson:
Yes. Kerry won the debate in the first one, the vice president and town hall were both a tie. If anything the Bush camp was unable to do was to reverse any of the momentum that Kerry picked up during that first debate.

>> Michael Grant:
President Bush clearly more comfortable in the town hall format, you could see that in that little clip that we ran.

>> Brooks Simpson:
A little more conversational, a little more give and take with the people around him. A bit more ease. I think he was now aware that the stakes are high and at the same time it was not the sort of stage situation that a normal debate tends to be.

>> Michael Grant:
Much was made of the cutaways to him in the first debate. And that he was showing too many grimaces and that kind of thing. You were making the comment that you were watching to pick up any of that on Friday and didn't see that.

>> Brooks Simpson:
I saw that he blinked his eyes an awful lot, but otherwise he understood and learned his lesson from the first debate. And I think you will see that he will maintain his composure much better this time in Tempe.

>> Michael Grant:
Have the debates played -- I said they had, I'm not sure I'm correct -- have they played an increasingly important role in presidential politics?

>> Brooks Simpson:
I think so. For one thing now, with the nominating conventions become pro forma coronations, so to speak, Most voters start to tune in, not on Labor Day, as they used to, but now waiting for that first debate. Everything sort of slows down to a crawl as we anticipate this clash of Titans that's supposed to happen every late September and early October. So I think now voters, those voters especially that haven't made up their mind or who are wavering, they wait for these debates to see what they're going to do.

>> Michael Grant:
Why the increased level of interest this time around?. I think I'll get close to the numbers, 36 million for debate one four years ago, 60 to 65 million in viewership this year, that's an incredible increase in television viewers. Why do you think?

>> Brooks Simpson:
Americans aren't sure about either one of these people at this point. They see this as more important than before. In 2000, it was debate over domestic policy, foreign policy was rarely mentioned. This time foreign policy is at the forefront of many people's minds and at the same time the economic situation is a little more complex, a little more challenging than four years ago.

>> Michael Grant:
Any particular debate that stands out in your mind or for that matter you think had special importance in shaping the outcome of the presidential race?

>> Brooks Simpson:
I think that in 1980 when Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter faced off in Cleveland, with just days to go before the presidential election, people who were not happy with Carter but were worried about Ronald Reagan, Reagan's calm, smooth reassuring performance, probably ended the last question of this is a guy that we can trust in the White House.

>> Michael Grant:
I recall that. Interesting point. It was important for him to appear presidential because a fair portion of the country wasn't sure if they had an actor or leader on their hands. And you're right, you jogged my memory that actually was sort of a verification exercise for him. How badly was Michael Dukakis hurt in 1988 with his answer to -- rather cold-blooded answer to Bernard Shaw's question about rape of his wife?

>> Brooks Simpson:
I think that really hurt. That confirmed an impression people had, mechanical, that he was unfeeling. The camp had done all this work trying to make him look like a more loving, caring man. Then he gave that answer and it was stale, cold, clinical answer that you really didn't want to see from him if you were interested in his candidacy.

>> Michael Grant:
Was President Ford going to lose anyway, regardless of the fact of his blooper on the eastern European countries not dominated by Russia?

>> Brooks Simpson:
He was so far behind when he accepted the nomination. The one advantage I think he thought he had that as president he was the man filled with foreign policy. That ripped up that notion, he came across and spoke about how eastern Europe was not under Soviet domination and repeated that when prodded to make sure that's what he wanted to say.

>> Michael Grant:
Brooks Simpson thanks very much for joining us.

>> Brooks Simpson:
Thank you.

>> Paul Atkinson:
With the firs two debates behind them, President Bush and Senator Kerry prepare for their final debate at ASU in Tempe. "Horizon" looks at the issues that will be addressed. Plus, a debate moderator of CBS news talks about his role in preparation for the debate. Tuesday at 7 on "Horizon".

>> Michael Grant:
Thank you very much for joining us this evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

 

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