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November 3, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· Post-election
In-Studio Guests:
· Bob Robb, columnist, Arizona Republic;
· Fred DuVal, political analyst

>> Michael Grant:
Arizona voters approved some of the more controversial ballot propositions while dismissing others. Post election analysis tonight at 7:00 on "Horizon."

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," victory for the "Arizona Republican” party. Supporters of President Bush and other Republican candidates celebrate. We look at what it means for Arizona.

>>> Michael Grant:
Plus, we'll talk about the results of state and local elections such as Prop 200 and prop 400. Next on "Horizon."

>> Announcer:
"Horizon" is made possible by the friends of channel 8, members who provide support to this Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. It was an incredible day for the Republican party in our state. The grand old party racked up wins on the national level and every other level of government. Mike Sauceda was with the winning party last night as they celebrated their victories.

>> Mike Sauceda:
It was the happiest place in Arizona last night.

>> All over the country. What a great night for Republicans.

>> Mike Sauceda:
President Bush won big in Arizona, 55 to 44%, and took the national popular vote by at least 3 million ballots, 51 to 48%. He won 274 electoral college votes compared to Kerry's 252. The Republican party chairman Bob Fannin loved the win.

>> Bob Fannin:
I'm happy for all of these people here as well, and all of Arizona, because these people here tonight and a lot of other volunteer Republicans worked very, very hard on all of these contests, especially for President Bush. They made over 1 million telephone calls and door knocks in this last weekend to both turn out the vote.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Yesterday's election produced a high voter turnout.

>> Bob Fannin:
I don't believe so this time, think we really worked hard for the last year and a half to get people registered, and identify who our supporters where and got them out to vote.

>> J.D. Hayworth:
Well, the great thing today is just this remarkable turnout.

>> Mike Sauceda:
JD Hayworth said bush's win was made possible by attracting voters beyond Republicans.

>> J.D. Hayworth:
It's a great testimony not only to the volunteers who were here celebrating tonight, but the fact that so many folks joined us. With all of the talk about polarization, the fact is, a lot of good Democrats, a lot of Libertarians, a lot of independents joined with us in this effort.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Now that congress and the presidency are in control of the Republicans again it's time to get to work on the agenda.

>> J.D. Hayworth:
I'm returning for the 6th term. Our agenda is clear. We understand number one, national security is of vital importance. We couple that with economic security, with equal opportunity in education, recognizing that public education is the foundation of our process, but that one size does not fit all, and at the same time, we understand that we have to balance our fragile environment with our unique economy in Arizona. So there is a lot of work we have to get done here now.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Trent Franks was returned to congress by a large margin. He credits bush's energized base for the reelection.

>> Trent Franks:
The night was very, very good to me. We got 60% of the vote, but the thing I'm so, so happy about is that it looks like President Bush is going to be reelected. I can't tell you how relieved and thankful I am that that's the case, because I believe that the entire march of human freedom came to a crossroads tonight and I think we barely dodged a disaster.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Republicans picked up more seats in the U.S. senate giving them control there. Republican congressman Jeff Flake who won reelection says that means an easier time for Republicans in appointing judges.

>> Jeff Flake:
The biggest shift is to have the president with a good senate in order to appoint judges with that. That, by far, is the most important thing about electing George Bush again, and when you look at maybe four appointments on the Supreme Court, look at the federal bench in the 9th Circuit, we've got to have somebody who is going to appoint judges that will interpret the law and we'll have that for another four years.

>> Mike Sauceda:
That could make a difference on big issues.

>> Jeff Flake:
I think certainly, as the president has said all along, reasonable people can differ on, you know, what you do with "Roe v. Wade" but there are practical measures that ought to be taken like a ban on partial birth abortion. I think that ban will be upheld if we have a court that has judges that will interpret the law.

>> Mike Sauceda:
The crowd was focused on the presidential race, but there were several Arizona races decided yesterday. The high state office in this election was the Corporation Commission, which had a quorum at the Republican party last night.

>> It's a great day for the Republicans, thank you all.

>> Mike Sauceda:
All Republican incumbents were elected, including Chris Mays who was elected for the first time after being appointed to the agency, which regulates utilities.

>> Kris Mayes:
Looks like we did pretty well. All four commission commerce were elected and reelected. So it's -- we're going to retain this commission. I think it shows that the voters are confident in this commission and know that we're working hard and doing a good job.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Former state lawmaker Stan Barnes says the state legislature became more conservative after yesterday's election.

>> Stan Barnes:
I think this election gives us a much more conservative senate. The Republicans have been in charge for the last couple years, but that's only nominally. They haven't really been in charge. Now there is going to be 18 Republicans and they are going to work well together, and it's going to be a very different senate than it was last term. That's going to change a lot of things at the state legislature. The house is going to shift just a little, but ideologically, it's about the same.

>> Joe Arpaio:
I thank all of you for your support. I thank my family, I thank my staff, thanks to all of the supporters and the people that are keeping me in office. Once again, good luck. Thank you.

>> Mike Sauceda:
Republicans also maintain control of Maricopa County sheriff and attorney with sheriff Joe Arpaio being elected again and Andrew Thomas winning for county attorney.

>> Jeff Flake:
Ohio continues to come in. We're leading in Ohio. Wore' leading in Michigan as well.

>> Jeff Flake:
It almost makes you want to do the Howard Dean scream, doesn't it?

>> Mike Sauceda:
After a long night of winning, some Republicans were tired waiting for conclusive results on President Bush's bushes win which didn't come until today.

>> Michael Grant:
Bob Robb joins me to talk about the elections and political analyst Fred Duval. Fred, Arizona permanently a red state?

>> Fred DuVal:
No, of course not. Of course not. We've got a Democratic Governor and a Democratic attorney general. It was a strong day for Republicans. Arizona goes Republican in national elections much more effort but we're competitive on the ground in state elections we need to convert that to the federal races.

>> Bob Robb: I really think that the Democrats and the Republicans to a lesser extent over emphasized the importance of Napolitano's win in 2002. That's what's caused the Democrats to say Arizona is going to be in play, we're going to invest here. Well, in 2000, bush won by the registration margin, about 6%. This year he doubled the registration margin, which had shrunk to 5%. According to the exit polls, 14% more self-identifying Republicans voted than Democrats. We'll get to the state legislative races, but none of those were close. Even though there was a ton of money dumped into it. And I think increasingly that 2002 race is looking at -- looking like an exception to the rule, and if you look beyond the two races that Fred mentioned, you have a clean sweep for Republicans of all of the other statewide races, and 100% of the Corporation Commission, which ordinarily had been seen as a place where you want some Democrats to keep the utilities honest.

>> Fred DuVal: I just want to add, Clinton did carry Arizona in 1996, so it can be done.

>> Michael Grant: Right, but was that -- I guess what we're searching for, was that just an aberration? Was that Bill Clinton in 1996 and I might quickly add, bob dole on the Republican side.

>> Bob Robb: With Perot on the ballot as well.

>> Michael Grant: True.

>> Fred DuVal:
I think that was a factor. You know, how many aberrations until you've got a base of support that you can leverage. You've got Clinton in '96, Napolitano and Goddard. It's a Republican state. I'm not disagreeing, but we can in the right circumstances with the right issues, make Arizona competitive, it didn't break our way this time.

>> Michael Grant:
Right circumstances obviously not present in the Renzi-babbitt race. Was the size of that margin surprising to you, Fred? You have some experience --

>> Fred DuVal:
I've got history in that district. Mammoth districts the size of Pennsylvania. Renzi has been running aggressively for two years. Ed he had substantial help. He outspent Paul 2 to 1. He got an enormous amount of help from the congressional leadership in terms of surrogate visits. They identified him as a seat they were going to protect at all cost and they spent every dime they needed to spend to win it.

>> Bob Robb:
This was a nationally targeted race. The Democrats enjoy a 10% registration advantage in the district, and both sides piled in a ton of money. The candidates kind of became bystanders in their own election as the two national congressional committees pounded the district. The question now is what do Democrats do next? I mean, they've run a Udall who didn't even make it through the primary. They've now run a Babbitt. I don't know if there is a Kennedy lurking somewhere in the district. The question is whether this remains on a target list.

>> Michael Grant:
Well, but to a certain extent, Fred, doesn't some of this just demonstrate the power of the incumbency?

>> Fred Duval:
Sure it does. Incumbency is powerful and Renzi leveraged it effectively.

>> Michael Grant:
What conclusions if any do we draw about the new voter from these results?

>> Fred DuVal:
Well, this was, of course, other than who won, this was the story of the day, this massive swelling of turnout. Everyone assumes these are new voters, motivate bide change. For every new Democratic voter it was matched by a Republican voter. It was a swell on both sides.

>> Michael Grant:
Did we find out that the new voter votes pretty much the same as the old voter?

>> Bob Robb:
In Arizona, about 13% of the electorate were people who were voting for the first time. They broke narrowly for bush. So -- and in Arizona, which is different than the other states in terms of trying to swell voter registration, the Republicans actually marginally outperformed the Democrats.

>> Michael Grant:
The mood was different at Democratic party headquarters. Hopeful but guarded was the atmosphere as Arizona Democratic supporters, voters and candidates waited for the results of the presidential election and other races. Merry Lucero reports on that.

>> Merry Lucero:
Early on election night, Democrats were optimistic but cautious, anticipating a long night ahead as some voters still stood in line to cast their ballots. The lines as well as uncounted provisional ballots were considered advantages for John Kerry, although the Governor would not declare triumph for the senator.

>> Gov. Janet Napolitano:
We don't know yet the final results of this election, but we do know this, we do know this. Let me be very serious here for a minute. Every election has winners and losers, but we have so many people to thank. One, to thank the people the candidates who have put themselves out for months.

>> Merry Lucero:
Napolitano did say voters were the winners because of the turnout.

>> Gov. Janet Napolitano:
So even this early in the evening, I can declare a winner, and the winner is the electoral process in our State of Arizona.

>> Merry Lucero:
Democratic party chairman Jim Peterson now has a party that can win elections.

>> Jim Pederson:
We have a party that can represent what the majority of the people think and feel about these critical issues.

>> Merry Lucero:
Democratic candidate Stuart Starky conceded to John McCain early in the evening.

>> Stuart Starky:
I lost. It's okay, we can say it.

>> Merry Lucero:
But came through with invigorated inspiration for the Democratic process.

>> Stuart Starky:
You know, on appreciation for what it is like to be a voter out there and to be able to put a spot in the Democratic ticket that otherwise would have been empty, and nobody would have been able to use that voice to talk about issues. And just to be able to travel around the entire state and I hit just about every county and talked about the things that are important in my life and in the area where I teach and just an understanding that will allow to be in it. So maybe the teacher didn't win, but maybe the next one is a fireman or police officer says hey, if a teacher could try -- I had somebody who said you inspired me.

>> Merry Lucero:
Two new candidates were Democrats David Lujan (phonetic) and Kirstin Cinema. They wrapped up their races for central district 15 and will be first time lawmakers in nut session.

>> Kirstin Cinema:
We had a great run. We worked very, very hard, both of us worked doors, worked the polls and made sure we talked to voters, and this past week was pretty rough, but we made it through it and came out on top.

>> Merry Lucero:
Kerry supporters watched and waited.

>> Kerry Supporter:
I am so nervous and anxious that I wanted to be around people who feel like I do, so I came down and I'm keeping my fingers and toes crossed for the right results.

>> Kerry Supporter:
Arizona was in play, and I hope I did my part to move Arizona to blue.

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