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July 20, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· KAET-ASU poll;
· Political machine;
· Mexico Rx: Arizona senior arrested
In-Studio Guests:
· Dr. Bruce Merrill, director, KAET-ASU poll;
· Tara Blanc, assistant, KAET-ASU poll;
· Ray Lindell, the Valley man who spent eight weeks in a Nogales jail for buying pain medication without a prescription from a Mexican doctor

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," the latest KAET-ASU poll shows overwhelming support for the Protect Arizona Now initiative and little support for dumping Arizona's system of public campaign financing. The poll shows President Bush's approval rating is down, plus a look behind-the-scenes of the ground war waged in the presidential campaign in Arizona.

>> Ana Ma:
In the past, more than anything else people paying people. That's changed because of campaign finance. So everybody, we depend on the volunteers 110% and that's basically our soul of the campaign.

>> Michael Grant:
Thousands of Arizonans cross the border each year to buy prescription drugs. We will talk to a man who spent eight weeks in a Mexican jail after buying Valium for his ailing wife. Good evening. I'm Michael Grant. Welcome to "Horizon." The latest KAET-ASU poll surveyed voters' initiative to overturn Clean Elections. 387 voters were surveyed July 15th through the 18th. The KAET-Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication Arizona State University poll also asked voters about President Bush's job ratings and checked their opinions on the presidential race and the Protect Arizona Now initiative. The poll has a margin of error of 5% and here are the results.

>> Reporter:
There was a dip in all of President Bush's performance ratings this month as compared to last month's KAET-ASU poll and the overall approval in July -- 47% questioned approve the job president bush is doing and 47% disapprove. Last month 42% approved of President Bush's performance and 47% question President Bush's handling of the U.S. economy, 46% disapprove and in June -- 46% disapprove President Bush's handling of the economy.

In this month's poll president's handling of the war in Iraq. 42% surveyed -- 55% disapprove and last month 44% approved of the handling of the war in Iraq. This month the president's approval rating on the war against terrorism was 48% and 46% disapproving that's down 52% approval rating from the category last month. Turning to the presidential race it's become closer. Last month 47% supported bush and 35% supported presumed presidential nominee John Kerry. This month 41% say they will vote for Bush and 42% say they will vote for Kerry and 17% undecided. We asked voters if support was actually a vote for their candidate or protest vote against the other guy. 66% voting for Kerry say their vote is really a vote against Bush and 34% say it's a vote for Kerry. 78% say their vote is a vote for their candidate and 22% say it is a vote against Kerry. Survey participants are solidly standing behind their man. 86% of Kerry supporters say their support is firm and 41% say they might change their minds and 46% of Bush supporters say they won't change their might. We wanted to know what the addition of John Edwards had to the race and 62% said it would help and 6% said it would hurt, 42% said it wouldn't make a difference. Two initiatives will be on the November ballot. 74% say they will vote for the Protect Arizona Now initiative designed to block illegal immigrants getting state and local benefits and requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote. 56% say they will vote against it and 10% said they would vote no.

We also asked about the initiative to overturn Arizona's Clean Elections system for public campaign funding and 18% say they will vote to overturn Clean Elections and 57% say they will vote against overturning it and 25% don't know.

>> Michael Grant:
Joining me to talk about the poll is Dr. Bruce Merrill, he is the director of the KAET-ASU poll and with us is his assistant Tara Blanc. Good to see you both.

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
This is the "Beauty and the Beast" presentation and we will take a poll of our audience to see who is the beauty and who is the beast.

>> Michael Grant:
I hate to tell you, we took that poll. You lost. [laughter] Okay. Why did the president tank?

>> Bruce Merrill:
We are not so sure he did. We have taken this, this is our fifth poll and the one poll last month has been very, very close. Actually, the difference between last month and this month isn't really out of sampling error, it could have been a little blip and it could have been things going on. Very consistent here. Very consistent nationwide. Basically, all the polls show is a very close election.

>> Michael Grant:
And as you know, over at the behavioral research center cut loose instead of polling data last week was quite consistent with some of our poll results from last month. Now, I'm assuming he polled sometime in the past week. We would have been polling fairly contemporaneously. How do you explain spreads like that?

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
You have to keep in mind and make sure the polls you are comparing used the same sample. Are they most likely to vote? Are they registered voters, adults, heads of households. Second the timing of the poll and third is the actual questions themselves. It is really hard to compare them. The national polls showed Bush had gone up a little bit. And remember, since polls measure public opinion in a particular moment in time and we are living in a volatile time with a lot of events happening in mass media. Something like an execution happens and people see that, it can, in the short term affect it. Last month we found the gender affect after the executions - women moved away from bush. This month we found no gender gap whatsoever. There was no difference between how men and women were supporting it.

>> Michael Grant:
Tara, obviously, we were curious about how Arizonans viewed the selection of John Edwards as vice presidential candidate for John Kerry and in general they saw it as a positive pick.

>> Tara Blanc:
The general opinion, perception among most people seems to be Edwards was a good pick and I have heard several analysts say it would bump up Kerry in the polls. But we did what we call an experimental design in the survey and split the survey in half randomly, half questionnaires with the group and another questionnaire to the other group and questions were worded slightly differently and asked half the group if they would vote for Bush or Kerry and the other half if they would vote for Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards. And what we found was, when we asked it that way, it didn't make any difference. In fact, it wasn't statistically significant, but interestingly enough, it actually seemed to help Bush a little bit. When we, for the group that got the question as the whole ticket as opposed the candidate.

>> Michael Grant:
We were getting data and as I recall it was 60% or so --

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
52.

>> Michael Grant:
52 where they would say it was a good pick and constructing the questions in two different ways.

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
The difference between an opinion and behavior. I mean, you know, you can -- I think John Edwards is a young, dynamic and engaging guy and so it seems you can say it helps. As Tara points out, there's no evidence that it really helped Kerry very much.

>> Michael Grant:
Now, one of the things we have found consistently over five polls is a lot of polarization, and number two, a lot of Kerry support really still hinging on not so much support for Kerry but opposition to George w. Bush.

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
Yeah. That's weakened a little bit. It is still 3-1. Most of the Kerry vote is still anti-bush. But Mike, as we have talked before, it is simply consistent with the idea that what this election is about is bush. Not Kerry. Is bush doing a good job? Should he continue to lead us for the next four years?

>> Michael Grant:
Protect Arizona Now. It goes up in flames. Tara, what were the results?

>> Tara Blanc:
74% of people we polled said they would vote in favor of Protect Arizona Now and 16% say against and 10% undecided and numbers similar to what we did, we asked the question five months ago. Five months ago it was 70% said they would approve it that's within sampling error. It has held consistently over the months with all the discussion about it.

>> Michael Grant:
74% is -- we rarely get --

>> Tara Blanc:
I think it is because it is an emotional issue. You have two divided camps on this. This is what we heard when we were actually doing the poll. A lot of people who look at this as a very necessary thing and are concerned about illegal aliens taking jobs and services from people here legally and those who look at this and say this initiative won't do anything, and in fact, it is a mean spirited piece of legislation and are very much against it. There's not much of a middle ground. Emotions are running high on both sides. But, I think it is the fear factor pushing people towards thinking they want to approve this.

>> Michael Grant:
Bruce, we did not have a strong Hispanic population segment in this survey. To the extent we did, Hispanics were breaking about even?

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
You know, Mike, it is interesting. This is the exact same piece of legislation that passed in California four years ago. The post election polls there showed Hispanics were about evenly divided on it.

>> Michael Grant:
If memory serves it passed 64-40 in California.

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
It did. My best guess, data subsamples really aren't large enough to make conclusive comments about it, nevertheless I would say that somewhere between 35 and 45% of Hispanics in Arizona tend to be supportive of this legislation.

>> Michael Grant:
Our first look at the Clean Elections issue indicates that -- at least right now people are saying we would like to keep Clean Elections.

>> Tara Blanc:
I think it goes back to being an emotional issue where people are looking at the idea that campaign funding has been a real problem in elections in terms of people and the ability to raise money. For example, Bush and Kerry will spend nearly half billion dollars on the presidential campaign by the time we are done. It's a lot of money and people are uncomfortable with what's being spent and the kind of influence money has and that's why we are seeing some support for maintaining or keeping a law than overturning it.

>> Michael Grant:
Next month's poll will fall with the democratic convention and assume Kerry will get -- he will get a balance.

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
He will get a media bounce. A lot of coverage.

>> Michael Grant:
All right. Bruce Merrill, thank you for being here.

>> Dr. Bruce Merrill:
Good to be here.

>> Michael Grant:
Tara Blanc, good to see you.

>> Tara Blanc:
Thank you very much. Volunteers did a great, great job.

>> Michael Grant:
As always thanks to the volunteers. Democratic National Convention beginning next week in Boston. The Republican National Convention in New York at the end of August. A valley man spent 8 weeks in a Nogales, Mexico jail. We'll have that story in just a moment. First let's take a look at the ground war in the Republican and Democratic presidential elections.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Of the United States. We are familiar with the big picture of politics. The heartfelt waves, the poignant embraces. This is the view from the ground. Peggy Plewes and Mario Martinez are foot soldiers in the ground war of the presidential election. They are canvassers for America coming together that go door-to-door using the latest in Palm technology, asking registered voters which issues are most important to them.

>> Resident:
Probably health care right now.

>> Mario Martinez:
Health care. Okay. Great. With the second most important issue what do you think is second most important issue?

>> Resident:
The Iraqi war.

>> Mario Martinez:
The Iraqi war. Okay.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Sometimes they get what they want. Sometimes they don't.

>> Mario Martinez:
Okay. We just asked. Thank you.

>> Resident:
Bye.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Sustaining them on this blistering July day is their passion for work.

>> Peggy Plewes:
I believe the more voters are involve in the electoral process, the more they are paying attention to issues that concern them the most and more likely it is we will get a government next time that represents what Americans say they care about.

>> Mario Martinez:
The reason I got involved, I think it's very important that the voters get involved and get this country turned around.

>> Larry Lemmons:
America coming together, or act is known as a 527. 527 refers to the internal revenue codes governing the group. They attempted to influence political campaigns and they benefited from an alleged loophole and campaign finance reform.

>> Michael Frias:
The purpose for financial reform is put up a wall between the federal candidates and soft money and that's what has effectively been done. We don't communicate with the state party or federal candidates. What do have are 527's like America votes that coordinate efforts of other 527's or 501 c-4's and the media fund and you have act, America coming together and you also have what's called the thunder road group, a research body. We are all considered in some ways 527 and we are able to share resources with each other.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Those resources can be substantial. Campaign finance reform limits the amount of money a candidate can receive from donors; there's no limit to the money a 527 can receive. And even though there can be no money or contact between a 527 and a political candidate, there's no doubt what act's goal is.

>> Michael Frias:
I think we share a common mission in our willfulness to defeat George Bush.

>> Larry Lemmons:
It might appear that's nothing but good news to the Democratic Party but doesn't save Kerry/Edwards supporters any labor.

>> Jim Pederson:
It is a regrettable outcome, perhaps an unintended consequence of a goal that they have taken resources away from state parties that are tightly regulated and there are caps. We can't accept corporate money and has to be reported almost immediately to the independent committees where you don't have the control. So that unintended consequence was really shifting resources to independent sources and you don't know who is contributing and you don't know who is in charge.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Conservatives have their own 527's like progress for America. They are not so well established on the ground. The local Bush/Cheney '04 campaign hits the phones to drum up support.

>> Florence Brice:
I am a volunteer calling on behalf of the Bush/Cheney '04 and President Bush has an optimistic view for America.

>> Larry Lemmons:
All grassroots campaigns rely on enlisting and organizing volunteers. Obviously volunteers are more politically motivated than others are. Most times they start their political education early and tend to feel more idealistic about the process.

>> Myron Moton:
Well, when I started when I was 14. I would do phone banks for President Reagan in my hometown where I grew up. My mom stopped me from doing it because she was a Democrat and didn't like that. She did not like that.

>> Florence Brice:
I taught school for 32 years and after teaching students that you need to take part in democracy, this is something I am able to do.

>> Vance Phillips:
I think a lot of people, especially younger people -- not that I am old myself -- don't understand the importance of being able to vote, what a gift it is to be able to vote and be a part of what you believe in.

>> Lisa James:
President Bush like any campaign I have seen motivates to your heart and speaks to your spirit and are dedicated to be here.

>> Volunteer 1:
What does everyone think of our new ticket? [cheers and applause ]

>> Larry Lemmons:
Democrats of course have devoted volunteers as well.

>> Ana Ma:
Volunteers are crucial to our efforts. Right now what we have used in the past is more than anything else, people paying people. That's changed. Because of campaign finance. So everybody, we depend on volunteers 110%.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Making signs the night before a political event, volunteers from many primary campaigns now gather for a common goal.

>> Sue Castner:
I was special assistant and that meant I did what nobody else wanted or could do and that's why I volunteered. you need somebody to go out and stand with 107-degree heat with a sign, I will do it. you need someone to organize Kerry parties, I will do that.

>> Vanessa Gonzalez:
I am here because of my experience in Washington and seeing what President Bush and his lack of leadership has done to our community. I worked in the Hispanic community and was utterly frustrated at good law that should have gone into effect and didn't for political reasons and political bargaining which should never have been put in that position.

>> Volunteer 2:
Right now we've got a dozen people. we have a dozen people signed up to host house parties on these national women for Kerry day.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Working behind the volunteers of both parties are the local campaign organizers who direct the energy.

>> Ana Ma:
From house and house parties and getting as many neighbors and friends and co-workers to look at this Kerry/Edwards ticket and getting them to commit to vote for the team.

>> Lisa James:
We are going to reach out by phone, by knocking on people's doors. At events, for instance at the 4th of July weekend we were at more than 25 events throughout the state, and parades and booths and different places. Those are things we are doing. We are organizing our coalition's efforts. veteran's, farmers, ranchers, women through the Viva Bush coalition.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Efforts of all volunteers are focused to promote the party or candidate's message.

>> Jaime Molera:
I think with this campaign we are looking at twofold. The big piece of this will be the grassroots effort. Neighbors talking to neighbors. There's mass media, which you have to do. You touch everyone.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Sometime called spin -- the message is everywhere from T-shirts to posters.

>> Jim Pederson:
The parties will do that. The candidates will do that. Try to spin the issues. Try to spin their strengths. Try to minimize weaknesses. That's what the campaign is all about.

>> Jaime Molera:
Spin happens on both sides. Not just the politicians and the campaigns but from the media.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Which is why it is essential for campaigns to get as much favorable attention from the media as possible.

>> Volunteer 3:
Feedback from the folks at Tucson is that their television interviews went very well for them.

>> Michael Frias:
The protest was good.

>> Volunteer 4:
Really?

>> Michael Frias:
Yes.

>> Volunteer 4:
Were there cameras?

>> Michael Frias:
Yeah. There were a few cameras.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Media includes the Internet. On the Internet, you can see anti-Bush ads from the media fund. pro-bush ads from George w. Bush.com and anti-Kerry message from the Republican National Convention. A pro-Kerry ad from John Kerry.com. The message is refined, framed and delivered. Meanwhile, back on the ground canvassers more often than not come across not so much opposition but apathy.

>> Mario Martinez:
The purpose is to get voters vote in the upcoming election. We are not selling anything. Are you registered to vote?

>> Resident:
Yes, I am.

>> Mario Martinez:
Would you mind if we asked you a few questions about what's important to the election?

>> Resident:
I'm not really into politics to tell you the truth.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Which is a stark contrast from the men and women involved in the campaign from top to bottom and no better way to describe them as passionate and devoted.

>> Jaime Molera:
The simple reason I am a Republican is how I grew up. I grew up in Nogales, bordertown. mother raised four boys of their own and refused to take governmental aide and felt it was her responsibility and her job to help raise her sons and work hard to do that. This was embodied in me. And to me that's what the Republican Party stands for. I became a big fan of President Bush when he was then governor. I had the opportunity of meeting him with Governor Holmes and we became friends and staffs worked together on a number of different issues and I was impressed with the man. Because he just had the kind of values that I think was important.

>> Jim Pederson:
I have always been a Democrat. I lean toward my party's views on most of the issues. I am not an extremist. I am a very moderate middle of the road pragmatic person and prefer that approach to politics and I think most people do. I think most people are moderate. They don't want a rigid ideology from government or leaders. They want practical solutions to the problems they face every day and we have gotten away from that, down at our state capitol and also back in Washington, D.C. where most of the decisions, most of the efforts and the energy is based on ideology, not practical solutions to the problems we all face as Americans and Arizonans.

>> Larry Lemmons:
So it is clear despite conflicting messages coming from both parties they do emphatically agree on one point. in a viable democracy it is imperative that we exercise our democratic right. The right to vote.

>> Michael Grant:
A valley man spent eight weeks in a Nogales jail for buying pain medication without a prescription from Mexican doctor. 66-year-old Ray Lindell was arrested May 19th after buying 270 valium pills from a pharmacy. Lindell purchased the three-month supply for his wife and was unaware he needed a Mexican prescription for the controlled medication. When Lindell was released July 13th after charges were dropped. Joining us now is Ray Lindell. Ray, obviously, welcome stateside.

>> Ray Lindell:
Thank you very much, mike. Very happy to be here and very happy to have my freedom back.

>> Michael Grant:
What officially were you charged with?

>> Ray Lindell:
I believe I was charged with possession of a controlled substance, possession of a controlled substance for sale and transportation of that controlled substance.

>> Micheal Grant:
Two of the charges, the first two of those charges were dropped almost immediately.

>> Ray Lindell:
Within eight days. Took eight days to get those two charges dropped.

>> Micheal Grant:
The more serious charge was the transportation charge?

>> Ray Lindell:
Yes. Carried a five-year sentence without bail.

>> Michael Grant:
For some reason they felt because of the number of Valium involved in this that you were transporting not for personal use?

>> Ray Lindell:
I believe that's what they thought. My prescription had written across the face of it 270 pills and that was a three-month supply for my wife.

>> Michael Grant:
Interestingly enough, you purchased Valium a couple, three months before this occurred?

>> Ray Lindell:
I purchased a two-month supply back in the beginning of March.

>> Michael Grant:
No question about the validity of the prescription?

>> Ray Lindell:
The prescription was a valid prescription from our family doctor. She had been giving my wife these prescriptions for years, and my insurance company quit carrying the brand name Valium for my insurance as of January 1st this year and that's why I started going to Mexico.

>> Michael Grant:
Should you have gotten the prescription rewritten by a Mexican doctor? Was that the problem?

>> Ray Lindell:
They seem to have said I should have gotten a prescription from a Mexican doctor and should have had my wife with me and shouldn't be buying prescriptions for anyone except myself and shouldn't have over one gram of valium which was approximately 90 milligrams or 100 pills.

>> Michael Grant:
Ray, you did not run into any problems at all at the pharmacy itself, a couple blocks from the border?

>> Ray Lindell:
That's correct. I went into the pharmacy and showed them my prescription and they filled the prescription and made no reference whatsoever to any of those Mexican laws applied to me. I walked out of the pharmacy and crossed the street and went to a kiosk and bought a wallet and went to another kiosk and bought a necklace for my wife. At that time a Mexican lady came behind me and said I was not allowed to have that many pills with me and said I would be arrested and offered to take the pills to the border for me for $150 and I declined and she said you will be arrested.

>> Michael Grant:
And you were arrested shortly thereafter. Do you have any indication the woman was working actively with the police?

>> Ray Lindell:
I think she was working with the police. I have no proof of that.

>> Michael Grant:
Let me quickly read a portion of the statement we got from the Mexican Consul General. He basically says that it shouldn't be construed this will happen to everyone buying prescriptions. That they should come with prescriptions issued by physicians for limited quantities for their own personal use if they comply with the simple requirements. They shouldn't have any problems with the Mexican legal system. What do you think about that statement?

>> Ray Lindell:
As far as I'm concerned I came with a legally issued prescription on the face of the prescription. It was an original prescription. It was not a copy. If you copy an original prescription, a copy machine will show a copy across the face of the prescription. At any rate I have a prescription that said 270 pills, Valium pills, 10 milligrams to be taken one, up to three times a day as needed.

>> Michael Grant:
Ray Lindell, we are almost out of time. What is your advice to someone looking for cheap drugs in Mexico?

>> Ray Lindell:
I advise them to go to Canada or the Internet and so forth. If they go to Mexico, be prepared for the corruption and I was subjected to direct corruption. They took my personal belongings and put me in jail and kept my belongings and I have not gotten them back and used one of my credit cards illegally.

>> Michael Grant:
Ray Lindell, thank you for joining us and I'm glad you made it back okay.

>> Ray Lindell:
Thank you. I'm glad to be here as well.

>> Michael Grant:
Thank you for joining us on this Tuesday edition of "Horizon." I'm Michael Grant. Have a good night.

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