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February 2, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· Arizona's Democratic Presidential primary
In-Studio Guests:
· Christa Steverns, Democratic political consultants;
· Bob Grossfeld, Democratic political consultants

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," Arizona one of seven states holding contests tomorrow for the democratic presidential race. We'll show you how the candidates stand on the issues and what we can expect in relation to Arizona's primary. Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. Arizona Democrats will choose a presidential candidate tomorrow. That election, of course, culminating an unprecedented amount of attention given the state by political heavy weights. We begin tonight with a couple of stories, the first a look at the impact presidential politics has made on students at Arizona state, produced by ASU student Mary Sturgill. Second a look at the political faces making a appearance in the Valley in the week leading up to the election.

>>Mary Sturgill:
We'll have a political showdown in Arizona in October. The presidential debate. An ASU students are rallying behind their candidates hoping to help them gear up for the big fight.

>>Bruce Merrill:
There is enormous political potential just from what I would call the Arizona constituency. A few years ago I did a survey where I asked people in Maricopa County did they graduate from ASU, had they attended ASU, were they taking classes at ASU, were any of their kids taking classes at ASU? And it was absolutely mine boggling, 23% of all the adults living in Maricopa County had what I consider a pretty direct relationship with the university.

>> Mary Sturgill:
That relationship could be pretty powerful if mobilize to do its potential.

>>Bruce Merrill:
So even in terms of mass politics, being felt potentially at something like the ballot box, that is an enormous political power that can be mobilized.

>>Mary Sturgill:
Students are hoping that they will make a difference at the ballot box.

>>Brian Collier:
Then there's this core group of really super active, politically active people, and it mirrors the state somewhat that people that are from here are somewhat conservative and people that are not from here are the more liberals.

>>Mary Sturgill:
Haley Ivans and the rest of her generation Dean crowd are out every day trying to garner support.

>>Haley Ivans:
So we're really trying to educate people and get them interested in politics.

>>ASU Student:
Dean coming to campus tomorrow.

>>Mary Sturgill:
And other students are taking no, sir dis.

>>Alana Wagner:
They're just so passionate about it that I feel especially when you're that passionate about it and you're in the middle of such a big school you can kind of branch out and make more people passionate about the candidates such as Dean in this case, not saying I'm for Dean, but it kind of spreads like wildfire.

>>Mary Wagner:
That wildfire on campus is spreading to a whole new generation.

>>ASU Student:
The reason we don't vote is because we're not given a reason to vote. And this campaign is about giving young people like you and giving young people like me and giving young people at heart like all of you out that there came out to be in the sun a reason to vote, to beat George W. Bush.

>>Larry Lemmons:
The Massachusetts senator arrives at Cesar Chavez high school and is treated like a celebrity. Ted Kennedy is a political celebrity, of course, and he's lending his considerable cloud to his fellow Massachusetts senator John Kerry.

>>Sen.Ted Kennedy:
You can say why is Arizona important? Because John Kerry wants to be the president of all the people. Arizona, New Mexico, the southwest is not New Hampshire and it's not Iowa. That is why we need your help in the final hours of this campaign next Tuesday is the time, and the eyes of the country are going to be on Arizona. They're going 'to say, well, John Kerry won out in Iowa, in the farmlands. He won in New England. Okay, he's a native New England New England. They're going to watch in South Carolina, he's going to do well in South Carolina because South Carolina has lost more jobs per population than any other state. But you've lost many of your manufacturing jobs.

>>Larry Lemmons:
Kennedy's campaigning with Arizona congressman Ed Pastor who previously had endorsed Dick Gephardt. Kennedy says the support Kerry has received is a result of his message.

>>Sen.Ted Kennedy:
He first of all has demonstrated his extraordinary personal courage. It was shown when the veterans who had served with him in Vietnam came to support his candidacy because they had seen him under fire. They know the personal qualities and strength and character that he had and the leadership that he has.

>>Gen.Wesley Clark:
Thank you so much.

>>Larry Lemmons:
Another candidate popular with veterans is retired general Wesley Clark who campaigned in Arizona earlier in the week. Clark is calling for what he says is a higher standard of leadership.

>>Gen. Wesley Clark:
I'm talking about a higher standard of leadership that looks for what's good for the country as a whole. It's not captive to special interests. It's a higher standard of leadership because it looks beyond the next election cycle to what's good for the next generation. It's a higher standard of leadership that I want to bring because it's not afraid to lay out the specific things you're going to get done, and then have open and honest government and be held accountable. Get it done. That's what I'm going to do.

>>Larry Lemmons:
Not wishing to be drowned out by the Democrats' drum beat, the bush-Cheney re-election campaign sent its own big gun to Arizona, Texas governor Rick Perry spoke with Arizona small business leaders. He said Arizona is not a sure thing for either party.

>>Gov.Rick Perry:
This is a state that I think is up for grabs, if you will, from the standpoint of close election last time. The president's going to be spending time here. He's going to have people like myself in here talking about his vision, talking about the principled leadership that George Bush is showing, not only in the war against terrorism, but also creating jobs and giving those tax cuts to small businessmen and women across the country to generate the jobs that in turn generate the wealth that drive this economy. You're going to see a president who strongly is talking about a national tort reform movement to stop the frivolous lawsuits that are costing all of us, whether you a doctor, nurse, hospital administrator or small business person, nationally billions of dollars to our bottom line because so many of these frivolous lawsuits are going forward.

>> Michael Grant:
Joining me to talk about the Arizona primary, what it mean to the candidates, a look at the big election picture, democratic political consultants Christa Severns and Bob Grossfeld. Good to see both of you.

>>Bob
Grossfeld: Michael.

>> Michael Grant:
Bob, is this all over but the shouting, or the growing? Is John F. Kerry the winner tomorrow and we might as well just pack this thing in?

>>Bob Grossfeld:
Oh, this is still very, very early. I know it's frustrating to -- the millions of people who want to see George Bush escorted out of the White House but it's going to take a while. This is a long process. Kerry would fairly well have to sweep every primary, I think, before you start seeing the bottom starting to fall out of the rest of the field and they start pushing them out and suddenly it just gets down to two or maybe three and then that's decided in a week or two. So it may take a while.

>> Michael Grant:
The front-end loading, though, of the process, Christa, you know, Kerry picks up enormous momentum in Iowa that repeats in New Hampshire, and this thing really, you've got almost all of the delegates picked by, what, March 7 or 9?

>>Christa Severns:
Most of them. His win in Iowa was like giving him opportunity to be on the highest ski slope before he goes to do the big swoosh off to see how does he. I mean, it's also dangerous because as the front-runner you become the target. Look what happened to Howard Dean. When everyone started hitting him.

>> Michael Grant:
I'm tired of being a pincushion, I think, was the quote.

>>
Christa Severns: That's right. We got a new pincushion. So when we start poking him and poking his wife and things like that, or when the press and things start doing that. But his momentum was huge. It's a really interesting phenomenon a state where maybe only 135,000 people would participate in a caucus or less has such a huge momentum. Eights 'huge momentum bringing him into New Hampshire and then the re: Of the country.

>> Michael Grant:
Now, I know everybody is looking at the most recent pom data and, Bob, you have the ZOGBY trackers and other sources. What I've been seeing is a fairly consistent Kerry 12 points up on Clark and then Dean a distant third. Any data arguing with that in Arizona?

>>Bob Grossfeld:
No, as a matter of fact, it's all fairly well supporting that. The difference between one and the other vary a little bit but certainly the order is identical in Kerry, Clark, Dean and in some structure. I think it all -- at that point you start looking, how are they defining the undecideds and how are they breaking within a given poll but I don't think there's any doubt about it.

>> Michael Grant:
One of the thing that has changed campaigning just remarkably in the past 10 years is the early ballot. Now, in this case the early ballot period, Christa, didn't start until January 19th, basically the day of Iowa. But who of these candidates in Arizona was perhaps best positioned to maximize the early ballot?

>>Christa Severns:
Well, it certainly wasn't Dean. The poor guy, talk about bad timing. Starting at that point. Kerry, really, I mean, without momentum coming out of Iowa in his early ballots. I know all of the campaigns took early balloting very seriously, and it's one of the few ways in which you can collect your votes, harvest them and then Sheep heard them through and make sure they get their votes in.

>> Michael Grant:
You likened to kind of a caucus process.

>>Christa Severns:
Yes it is, it's one of the few processes where you can collect and keep contact with the voters and try to get them -- make sure they're solid, they'll actually turn out for you.

>> >> Michael Grant:
Any possibility, Bob, of surprises from someone who did the early ballot thing better than somebody else that --

>>Bob Grossfeld:
Absolutely, and that might wind up being the biggest irony for the Dean campaign here, because they were active very early in the process doing a lot of the harvesting work that Christa referred to, sending out mailerers, getting people to apply for a vote by mail ballot, doing all that early activity, only to see the ballots hit just as their candidate is going down in Iowa, Kerry is going up.

>> Michael Grant:
And here they are armed with all these ballots. Obviously 5 of the 7 candidates attending the LULAC convention. Everyone keeps talking about the importance of the Hispanic vote, but Hispanics are not very efficacious voters.

>>Christa Severns:
Not yet and there's sort -- maybe this will be the time. We keep building up to it. But I think we're still a number of years out until we see a high efficacy of the Hispanic vote. I also think in this case the vote is fairly split between the candidates. They're not voting as a block in this election. They're voting just like other Democrats for the person that they feel is most likely to beat Bush.

>> >>Michael Grant:
Where does electability loom in any of this?

>>Bob Grossfeld:
It's interesting, because in the world of the press, media, punditry, that's the big buzz word, electable but when you poll on it doesn't come out the way as if it should. It's about a 50/50 split between people saying the only reason I'm going this way is because I think they can win --

>>Michael Grant:
This guy can win.

>>Bob Grossfeld:
And that's very thin support.

>>Christa Severns:
It's sort of like when people go to choose a candidate, in a since it's like choosing a spouse. If you choose a candidate simply because he's better than the other guy, what's that all about. You want to find someone who makes a true commitment to the candidate and if that's all they do is say he's better than the other guy, the chances of them following through and voting is much lower.

>> Michael Grant:
there are seven different candidates asking for vote tomorrow. Bob and Christa will rejoin after hear what the candidates say on the issues.

>>Larry Lemmons:
Wesley Clark is retired general from the United States arm. If elected Clark with repeal the portions of the tax cuts that benefit those making over $200,000 a year. He does not believe in eliminating tax cuts for middle class families. He would promote trade include continued American leadership with the World Trade Organization. He would oppose measures to increase retirement or replace Social Security's guaranteed benefits. He would call on Congress to fully review each provision of the Patriot Act and eliminate provisions that threaten our civil liberties. Clark says he would transform the military operation in Iraq into a NATO operation. He says we need responsible gun laws without unduly imfringing on the rights of legitimate gun owners. He says we need to invest in hiring new teachers. He believes same sex couples should have the same rights under the laws. He says he will not tolerate discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Howard Dean is the former governor of Vermont. If effected Dean says he would repeal all the tax cuts and start over reforming the tax code so it doesn't, he says, subsidize corporations who harm the environment or export jobs. He says we need enforceable labor and environmental standards in all existing and future trade agreements. He says he will not privatize Social Security. He says his top pry tore tea is to provide affordable health insurance to all Americans. He says reconsideration of certain provisions of the Patriot Act is warranted. Dean wants to reduce American force level in Iraq by getting NATO in. Dean favors improving the Brady law so that the instant check system is used at gun shows. He opposes the pending gun bill to exempt the gun industry from liability. Dean says he will work education accountability standards and reduce the reliance on testing. Dean says same sex couples should have the same legal rights and responsibility at other couples. John Edwards is a United States senator from North Carolina. If elected Edwards says he would repeal the tax cuts that benefit the top 2% of Americans and will make permanent the tax cuts for middle class. Edwards says he will protect Social Security. Edwards says we need trade and tax policies that will create jobs in the United States. He says he will cut taxes by 10% for companies that create jobs at home. He says we must provide healthcare coverage for every child in America, extend coverage to the most vulnerable adults and strengthen the healthcare safety net. He says he will amend the Patriot Act. He says we would bring NATO in into Iraq immediately with the goal of replacing -- he says the supports the second amendment right to bear arms but wants to close the gun show loophole. He says quality teachers must be a top priority and would raise teacher salaries. He supports partnership benefits for gays and lesbians in committed relationships but does not support gay marriage. John Kerry has been a United States senator from Mike Sauceda since 1984. If elected he says he would roll back the tax cuts for the we thesest Americans to invest in education and healthcare. Supports continued negotiations with the world trade association. But he says trade agreements shouldn't move forward without labor and environmental standards. Kerry says he opposes privatization of Social Security. He says he'll give every American access to the healthcare plan that the president and Congress already have. Kerry says he'll replace the Patriot Act because he says the spirit of the law has been abused by the Ashcroft Justice Department. He wants to establish a multi-national military force in Iraq under U.S. command. He would require all handguns be sold with a child safety lock. He would close the gun show loophole and support the ban on military style assault weapons. Kerry proposes a national education trust fund. He strongly supports civil unions. Dennis Kucinich has been a United States representative from Ohio since 1996. If elected Kucinich says he would repeal tax cuts going to the very wealthy by restoring the top 2 1/2 income tax brackets as well as tacks on investments and estates. Kucinich favors American withdrawal from the World Trade Organization and N.A.F.T.A. He says he will protect Social Security against privatization. He says he would end for profit insurance and replace with it universal comprehensive coverage. He says he would persuade Congress to repeel the Patriot Act. He would end the U.S. presence in Iraq 90 days by rotating troops out as a U.N. multi-national peace keeping force was rotated in. He would renew and strengthen the federal assault weapons bans and would require background checks for firearm sales by unlicensed gun dealers. He would work to make sure all children 3, 4 and 5 years old have access to a prekindergarten education. He supports a right to same sex marriage. Joe Lieberman has served 14 years as United States senator from couldn't couldn't. If elected Lieberman says he would repeal the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and eliminate waistful corporate welfare while cutting taxes for 98% of all taxpayers. He says he will open new markets. He says he will safeguard Social Security. Lieberman would move toward universal healthcare in an affordable way beginning by providing health coverage to every child in American. Lieberman wants review of the powers of the Patriot Act. He says we must establish security and protect the troops in Iraq by sending more of the right kind of troops and secure the assistance of other nations. Lieberman supports gun safety laws such as closing the gun show loophole and enforcing the Brady Bill. He would support more funding and flexibility in education in exchange for accountability. He's opposed to gay marriage but believes states have the right to adopt for themselves laws that allow same sex unions. Al sharpton is an ordained Pentecostal minister. If elected sharpton says he would slightly increase the income tax for those making over $150,000 and decrease taxes for those making 25 to 75,000. He would propose a two-year tax amnesty for all new small businesses. He said the United States should not participate in the World Trade Organization. Sharpton opposes proposals to privatize Social Security. He supports universal healthcare and stem cell research. Sharpton says the Patriot Act should be repealed pep says we should bring the troops home from Iraq and negotiate the U.N.'s introduction into the process. Sharpton would reinstate an an assault weapons band with a more clip limitation without infringing on real hunting rifles and allow police agencies access to the Brady database. He says the no child left behind plan does not adequately address the needs of those who need help.

>> Michael Grant:
Democratic political consultants Bob Grossfeld and Christa Severns are still here with us. Christa, Howard Dean rides the war to a zenith, or the war issue, in 2003. Does the January 2004 collapse indicate that's not the issue to run or win on in 2004?

>>Christa Severns:
I think that adds to the collapse but I think that that was -- his ZENITH was fueled by hype by the media. You have a 24/7 media function, they look for an underdog, they look for a Cinderella story. So like when mill bury was mumbling the Cinderella story in caddy shack, they want somebody -- they want the drama and I think that added to it. I think it was less about -- I think the is -- has war helped him quite a bit with his Internet and finding voters but those weren't necessarily people that would go out to the polls.

>> Michael Grant:
Then that 27-by-7 media can turn and can keep playing that 13 second sound bite from Iowa with the scream at the end and it's just terrible.

>>Christa Severns:
Tears him down immediately. This is nothing new. It's going to continue to happen in politics in every cycle.

>> Michael Grant:
So, Bob, the war in Iraq, the right issue for 2004 or not?

>>Bob Grossfeld:
Oh, I think it's clearly one of the top issues. I think we may have a case of right issue, wrong candidate where Clark and Kerry are now getting the benefit of Dean having raised that issue because their respective military background are now coming into play and they're gaining great credibility over that. I think the -- the issue is clearly going to be continuing straight through the end of the primary process and into the fall and here's the great unexploded grenade, is every democratic operative knows the bush administration has control over that agenda, what's going on in Iraq and they've got Saddam waiting in the green room. We haven't seen him. We haven't heard about him for quite some time. And if that issue begins to cause some degeneration in the White House credibility, they're going to haul Saddam out, it's going to be a media trial that will make the Michael Jackson thing look like back page funnies.

>> Michael Grant:
Wesley Clark, the toughest guy for George Bush to run against?

>>Christa Severns:
I think so. Wesley Clark is an unknown quantity to the bush administration. Here's a man with a war record, tough on defense, but also very smart man who can get up on the issues fairly quickly. One of his greatest accomplishments is that he doesn't have a record to run on except for his military record.

>>Michael Grant:
Is he a one-trick pony, though?

>>Bob Grossfeld:
Well, we're talking about earlier, that may be, but if so, it's one heck of a good pony, and he may be in the, lack of a Bert phrase, the seabiscuit position where if everybody saw the movie, the way that horse won races was not to get out in front, but to just hold back enough and then come surging through. Clark may be positioning himself tonight to do that.

>> Michael Grant:
Certainly, he continues to build in the polls. Kerry's got a different kind of military background. Does it play as well as Clark's? Some of the polls indicate that it does, but it's a much different military background.

>>Bob Grossfeld:
Sure. I think one plays as commander and chief. This is the Eisenhower image, if you will, with Clark. The other is incredibly reminiscent, for those of us in the baby boomer, incredibly reminiscent of JFK, the images they're using and just the idea of a second lieutenant. More people -- actually I think it was John McCain who noted that there are more second lieutenants who had received the congressional medal of honor than any other rank, and there's a reason for it, they get killed a lot.

>> Michael Grant:
Christa, what other key issues do you see right now and for that matter over the next eight, nine months?

>>Christa Severns:
I think it's more about the connectivity with voters. I think we can talk about issues and talk about where they stand on things, but Democrats are pretty uniform in differences than President Bush and repealing the tax code and dealing with healthcare in different ways than we're seeing this president do it. So the message that's really -- that's really going on with people is do I -- can I connect to this person? Can I commit to this candidate? Is this candidate somebody that I want to see run this country? And that's an emotional -- that's an emotional connection and we're in the process now of watching them try and kind of fold that out and either they define themselves or the press will define it for them, or the public will as we go forward.

>> Michael Grant:
Almost out of time, but at the end of the day, is it the economy that's stupid?

>>Bob Grossfeld:
Always. In the absence of any anything else, it's going to be the economy because the economy reaches out and touches every other element of our lives. And if somebody can pull it together, that's the story.

>> Michael Grant:
Bob Grossfeld, thanks much for the insight. Christa Severns, good to see you again. You can find out more about tomorrow's election on a special website we have prepared. Here's how to get to our site. Go to www.kaet.asu.edu. When you get to our homepage, click on the "vote 2004" button. That will take you to the Arizona primary website. There you can find information about the candidates, commentary about Arizona issues pertinent to the race, KAET/ASU poll results on how the president stacks up against major democratic candidates and information about the Latino vote, which is considered crucial in the presidential election. And there's an added bonus... commentary on the upcoming election only available at our website.

>>Larry Lemmons:
Tuesday on "Horizon" we'll have the latest on Arizona's democratic presidential primary. Arizona lawmakers seek to prevent cities from using taxpayer money to lure major and minor retail developments. Plus a look back at the recently concluded prison hostage situation. Tuesday on "Horizon".

>> Michael Grant:
Wednesday a look at the impact of tomorrow's primary. Thursday join us for first Thursday, our monthly visit from the governor. Thanks very much for being here on a Monday evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

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