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December 30, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· Journalists Roundtable: Year-End Review
In-Studio Guests:
· Howard Fischer, Capitol Media Services;
· Mark Flatten, East Valley Tribune;
· Doug MacEachearn, Arizona Republic.

Michael Grant:
Good evening. Welcome to a special edition of "Horizon". This is our annual year-end prediction show. Over the course of the next half-hour, our panel will look ahead and tell you what the headlines of 2005 will be before the stories happen. At least they'll try to do that. That's next on "Horizon".

>> Announcer:
"Horizon" is made possible by the friends of Channel 8, members who provide financial support to this Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Our panel includes Howie Fischer of Capitol Media Services, Mark Flatten from the East Valley Tribune, and Doug MacEachearn of the Arizona Republic. Before we turn to predictions for 2005, it's time to review how our panel did with their look at 2004. Producer Steve Clawson has the score card on the hits and misses.

>> Steve Clawson:
As last year's show came to an end, even Michael Grant was confident about the panel's predictions.

>> Michael Grant:
I feel good about this show. I have absolutely no idea why.

>> Steve Clawson:
Now on to the predictions. Of course the biggest question entering 2004 was who would win the Democratic presidential primary in Arizona and become the party's eventual nominee.

>> Mark Flatten:
I think Howard Dean is going to be almost impossible to stop, recognizing not a single ballot has been cast.

>> Howard Fischer
: I think Democrats have a wonderful death wish, they're going to do what Mark said, February 3, Arizonans are going to vote for him, moderately low turnout. At that point, given the nature of the party, he will have pushed through that and have enough delegates going to the convention.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Likely it will be Dean in Arizona, Dean in the primary.

>> Steve Clawson:
And when Howard Dean found out about the panel's reaction, he had this reaction. All right, so that wasn't in response to the "Horizon" prediction, but it's not too good to use one more time. By the way, this is Senator John Kerry, the man who won the Arizona primary and the Democratic presidential nomination. His name didn't come up on our prediction show last year. Our panel thought it would be against Howard Dean, but a prediction is a prediction. When it came to issues here in Arizona, there were several it appeared voters would have to decide, among them Protect Arizona Now and repeal of Clean Elections.

>> Mark Flatten:
You may as well lock that one up now. I'm completely sure that is going to make it to the ballot, I'm rather sure it's going to win by close to a two-thirds margin. Clean Elections is a little tougher. They had a little trouble getting off the ground. I have no doubt it will make it to the ballot. If I was to guess, I would say it's going to be a close decision that could go either way, but I would probably say the repeal will pass.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think Protect Arizona now will get on the ballot. For all the reasons that Mark stated, I concur. I'm going to guess, however, that Clean Elections is going to, the repeal of Clean Elections is going to run into some problem maybe in signature gathering, maybe in the courts.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think Protect Arizona Now, one of those little point things, I think within three weeks of that, somebody will be in court asking for an injunction. Clean Election makes the ballot, however I think the repeal fails.

>> Steve Clawson:
For the record, Prop 200, the Protect Arizona Now initiative, did pass in November but is the subject of litigation. The repeal of Clean Elections never made the ballot because the courts ruled it violated the single subject rule. Another issue that was at the forefront was the transportation tax proposal. The question was whether it would appear on the May or November ballot and whether it would include light rail.

>> Mark Flatten:
I think it will include light rail and I think that will be a huge anchor that is going drag the whole thing down. I think the vote will fail.

>> Howard Fischer:
If it goes on the ballot, it goes down. I think there will be people turning out for Protect Arizona Now and everything else. I think it will include the light rail.

>>Doug MacEachern:
I think the proponents of it will pull out all the stops to get it on the May ballot. Also, I don't feel the pessimism regarding the light rail issue.

>> Mark Flatten:
I consider it optimism.

>> Steve Clawson:
The transportation package was approved by voters on the November ballot. As a prize for their predictions, though, we'll make sure Howie and Mark are invited on the inaugural run of the light rail. Our panel also got to play meteorologist. And the question was whether we would exceed 120 degrees in the summer.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think we are going to come just shy of 120, I don't think we're going to hit it.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I don't think we're going to come close. I don't know why, but I don't think it's going to come close.

>> Mark Flatten:
My concern is we might hit 120 Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit.

>> Steve Clawson:
The official high temperature this summer at Sky Harbor Airport was 112 degrees, on July 12th and again on August 8th. And one of the fun parts of the show is get a long shot and sure thing prediction from the panel.

>> Mark Flatten:
The long shot is the new Bush administration will invite John McCain to be a member of the team -- that would be my sure shot. The long shot the Democrats would repeat their Kyl situation and not put anybody legitimate up against McCain.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think that Paul Babbitt wins in Congressional District One

>> Michael Grant:
That's your long shot?

>> Howard Fischer:
That's my long shot. My sure shot, Saddam Hussein is found guilty of crimes against humanity.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Sure shot, Janet Napolitano will give a state of the state on a single subject this year, which hasn't been done by Bruce Babbitt. Long shot, Jeff Groscost is coming back to the legislature.

>> Steve Clawson:
Now it's time to announce this year's winner. The highest possible score is 12. It should be noted that a scoring system similar to the one used to determine this college football's national championship for the BCS was used to determine this year's winner. With that said, here are the results. Defending champion Doug MacEachearn has 7 points, Howie Fischer also has 7 points, and Mark Flatten finishes with 7 points, too. That's right, for the first time in "Horizon" history, we have a three-way tie.

>> Michael Grant:
Incredible. A three-way tie.

>> Howarde Fischer:
You have to understand, that's 7 out of 12. That doesn't pass the AIMS test. We all fail.

>> Mark Flatten:
I want to know why can't I get a 7, 7, 7 when I go to Las Vegas.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, you nailed a couple of those real good like we're not getting anywhere close to 120 degrees.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Win the easy ones.

>> Michael Grant:
Incidentally, the coaches of the big 12 to blame, they voted everybody else doing predictions high and you guys low, so that explains it. Let's get to 2005 predictions. And we'll start with a numbers question so we can guarantee that everyone is wrong. How many vetoes will Governor Napolitano issue on next year and how many will be overridden by the legislature?

>> Doug MacEachern:
You're looking at me. I'm with you. I think there's going to be quite a few. I think --

>> Howard Fischer:
We need a number, Doug.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I'm going to say an even two dozen.

>> Michael Grant:
Two dozen vetoes.
Any overrides?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I will say no.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay. Howie?

>> Howard Fischer:
I'm going to take his number and divide it by two. I think 12 vetoes including the line items and I don't think they're going to override because you don't have 40 in the House and I don't see any Democrat siding with the Republicans to override a veto, so I think it's going to be 12 at-bats, zero homers.

>> Michael Grant:
Mark?

>> Mark Flatten:
I would go lower than Howie, got to bracket somebody. I'll go with about 9 vetoes, I don't think any will be overridden. I don't think there is an issue strong enough to override.

>> Howard Fischer:
I have a scoring question. Is this like the Price Is Right where you go up to, but not over?

>> Michael Grant:
I was going to make a suggestion for Clawson.

>> Mark Flatten:
Yeah, I've got a suggestion for Clawson.

>> Michael Grant:
Mark, will the legislature move any major tax reform this session? And if so, what.

>> Mark Flatten:
I think it will and I think probably looking at either some sort of property tax reform, maybe some corporate tax reform or both.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug?

>> Doug MacEachern:
Mark, you're reading from my script. That's exactly right. I think there's going to be some major revision regarding corporate property tax.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think it's only going to be the corporate tax. The Citizens Finance Review Commission, the governor's commission made that its top priority because corporations pay property taxes two and a half times the rate. They're going to monkey with it in a way so that the burden is not passed on to homeowners and they're going to start phasing that in over perhaps five years.

>> Michael Grant:
Does it become one of the so-called wedge issues?

>> Howard Fischer:
No, I think even the governor is on record, saying if we had the money, she would like to do that. I think she recognizes that. She has to get one subject which we're going to talk about later, which is full day kindergarten. I think if she gets that, she signs off on the property tax.

>> Mark Flatten:
I was going to say as sort of a bonus answer, I think the governor will sign some tax reform bills this year.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, as long as Howie brought this up, he always does that, preempts me, all day K. Let me phrase it this way, does the five year phase-in plan for all day K continue?

>> Doug MacEachern:
To answer the first question that you almost asked but didn't, of course it will be continued because there is no way they'll be able to phase out what's there now. I think there will be the five-year phase-in. I have a sense there is some momentum building and they'll find a pot of money to deal with it.

>> Michael Grant:
Had a major seat change in the House and fairly major seat change in the Senate. Any possibility we go to a seven-year phase-in?

>> Howard Fischer:
It's possible. When this committee met a couple of months ago, they proposed a new five-year schedule, so we're already at six. I think they will provide some additional money this year. The revenue estimate suggests as of right now, as of the end of December and early January, we are close to 200 million above for projections for revenue. So I think they would be hard-pressed to say we won't use some of that money to continue the phase-in of full day kindergarten. If it becomes five or six more years, I think the legislature will take it one year at a time without a commitment to future years.

>> Mark Flatten:
I tend to agree. I think what they're going to do is at least say they are going to stay to the five-year schedule. They won't have to make the critical decisions about whether to stretch it to six or seven until we get closer to the five years. There will be some movement to stretch it out, but I think the Republicans are going to realize that this is just not a winning issue for them, all day K is something that I think folks in Arizona are supportive of. I think they're just going to realize it's not the battle worth fighting.

>> Michael Grant:
Another numbers question. I have an instruction on grading this one plus or minus 10 days how long is the legislative session going to run?

>> Howard Fischer:
145. Simple enough?

>> Michael Grant:
That's incredible. Doug.

>> Doug MacEachern:
That's amazing, Howie. I want to say June 7th, how many days that is. It sounds like under 100. No, over 100.

>> Howard Fischer:
Late April would be 100 days.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Yes.

>> Michael Grant:
You're about 140.

>> Doug MacEachern:
All right.

>> Michael Grant:
Still like that answer?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I like it. I'm going with 140 days.

>> Michael Grant:
That's your final answer?

>> Doug MacEachern:
It is my final answer.

>> Mark Flatten:
I was going to go with the first week in June, so just so Doug and I don't cross, I will say sometime before Doug's prediction. I would say the first week of June, probably the second, third, something like that.

>> Howard Fischer:
This is like The Price Is Right, you're trying to undercut him.

>> Michael Grant:
I should note, Doug, that you cheated on this one, you have inside information, but who will be the new chair of the Democratic National Committee?

>> Doug MacEachern:
Just before I left the office, and since I got here last, Tim Romer from Indiana is a late entrant to the sweepstakes. It seems as though he was encouraged by a lot of parties trying to get into the race and I just have a sense that it's Tim Romer.

>> Michael Grant:
Going to go with Howard Dean? Worked pretty well for you this year.

>> Mark Flatten:
I underestimated Howard's nuttiness. I got to go with my buddy, Doug. What he said.

>> Howard Fischer:
There's some procedure from Survivor, you get one free pass of something you don't want to deal with. Don't know, don't care.

>> Michael Grant:
okay.

>> Howard Fischer:
I pass.

>> Michael Grant:
It doesn't help your score. Jim Peterson, is he running against John Kyl in 2006?

>> Howard Fischer:
I think he will, if for no other reasons than he recognizes the party doesn't have anyone else that strong and he has more money than God, which certainly helps when you're running this kind of race. He sees Kyl much more beatable than McCain. So I think Peterson, absent. Obviously this year the party didn't put up anybody strong against McCain, and so I think Peterson, absent somebody else coming forward, is going to be the party's nominee.

>> Michael Grant:
Mark, do you think he goes or not?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think he goes. I think Peterson has seen this progression where he became the party chair and Napolitano was up and rising. She is where she needs to be. I think from the Democrat's perspective, he is the obvious choice to be the one to challenge Kyl. The question is whether Peterson will make a formal or obvious announcement or move towards his candidacy in '05. I think he will.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think.

>> Doug MacEachern:
He has not been getting a big bang for his buck in recent days. I'm going to say no. I don't think he will.

>> Michael Grant:
That was probably one of the major aspects of the November results, was a statewide as to look at the results. Each if you have a lot of money, wonder if he can do it.

>> Doug MacEachern:
After he saw the disintegration of Paul Babbitt, who I predicted would win.

>> Mark Flatten:
On the other hand, it's only been 2 years since he pumped $270,000 to help Governor Napolitano to get elected. I think he sees if there's a candidacy that he's got some sort of close say over -- obviously he didn't have much say over the Kerry campaign. I think he sees this is something that, I will be making the call, I will be running the campaign and I'll be fronting a lot of the money. I think he has made the decision that it's a matter of finding the opportune time.

>> Howard Fischer:
The wild card, of course, and this comes up every time there's an opening like Homeland Security Chief, which seems to happen regularly these days, Kyl's name always gets mentioned for some sort of Washington position. While the Senator said consistently, I like what I'm doing, I think if you make him the right offer, he may say what do I need to run for re-election for.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay. Good transition. 2005, any Arizonan in cabinet, high Washington, supreme court position?

>> Howard Fischer:
I don't think so. We have been unusual having two Arizonans on the Supreme Court. That's one of those quirks for a tiny state like we are. I don't see -- assuming Rehnquist leaves the court at the end of the 2005 session, I don't see an Arizonan replacing him. In terms of other folks in Washington, the one possibility, and this gets into some other questions, might be a Rick Romley. I think if the drug czar position comes open, I think Rick would jump at it.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think? Any Arizonan going to Washington at a fairly high level?

>> Doug MacEachern:
At some point I think John Kyl, his name rises as a prospect for the Supreme Court, but I don't see it as a first option for Bush. I think that's something that's going to remain an ace in the hole depending on how things go in the Senate.

>> Michael Grant:
He likes the Senate and maybe he likes 55-45.0

>> Doug MacEachern:
And drags what Republican Janet Napolitano would replace him with. I'm going to say no, I don't think there won't be any Arizonans named to any cabinet positions.

>> Mark Flatten:
I agree. Kyl gets mentioned a lot partly because he has been on judiciary and intelligence. He's got a good background in both. He is like number three now in the Senate. He has a good policy position. It would take a very high position, either on the Supreme Court or cabinet, to move him away from this. He is not going to be deputy undersecretary of agriculture or something like that, it would have to be homeland security or intelligence director. I don't think he is on the list for those. I don't think he will be called on to be in any of those positions. As for the Supreme Court, I don't see him making that list either. I don't see anybody going to a high position.

>> Michael Grant:
Campaigns, as you now know, take years instead of months. You think people are going to be declaring against Governor Napolitano next year for 2006?

>> Mark Flatten:
Maybe around the November/December time frame, maybe J. D. Hayworth if he choose not to run as a Clean Election candidate, which means he has to start raising money this year. I think it's very likely that sometime in December he would make that announcement. But I don't think we're going to see that until 2006.

>> Michael Grant:
Does he preempt Rick Romley?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think there will be an understanding reached by Hayworth and Romley, whereby, for instance, Hayworth gets a clear shot to run for governor, Romley runs for his seat, something on that nature. I think one of the things Republicans desperately want to avoid is a combative close primary between two candidates of that standing.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think? Next year.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think it's a lock that J. D. will announce eventually. When is the question? I think he is going to announce late next year. A twist in that, I think he likely will run as a Clean Election candidate in the end. Nevertheless, I still think he'll announce next year. A flag for this: If you see his wife get some sort of lucrative, good paying post in some think-tank somewhere that would hoist the family income, more than the piddle pay that we give our governor, then he is a dead set lock.

>> Howard Fischer:
I like the idea of using the wife as the bell weather on this thing. I think we will see an announcement from J. D. of an exploratory committee. I agree with Mark, I think there is no way Rick will go head to head. Rick may form an exploratory committee and then they'll have a little meeting of the minds, and I think Rick eventually ends up for Congress. Interesting question Whether he runs publicly financed or not. Matt Salmon chose not to and found the rules worked against him. I think it's going to depend on the way the legislature alters the matching system. If a match remains in place, every time somebody spends money on J.D.'s behalf Janet gets money, then in fact he is going to say, I'm going to be publicly financed because that will at least make it even. But if they get rid of the match, J. D. would be running privately financed.

>> Michael Grant:
The only way you could do that, though, is to blow the doors off the match limits which, I seem to recall, I don't know, about 2.2 million.

>> Howard Fischer:
As tripling because you get I think 700,000 for the primary and another 900,000 for the general and you can triple that and after that you're outside the match.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay.

>> Mark Flatten:
Unless you get Jim Peterson to write you a check.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, Congress going to take action on immigration reform next year? If so, what will it look like?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I go back and forth about immigration reform or whether to do something about Social Security. They seem to be gearing up toward Social Security, as best I can tell now, but I think sometime in the summertime you're going to see some emphasis on immigration reform and maybe spurred by some horrendous thing going on in the southwest at the border somewhere. Yes, I believe they will. I think it will take some major action on immigration.

>> Michael Grant:
Guest worker program, ID restriction?

>> Mark Flatten:
That's the tough question. I think there's definitely going to be some major legislation on immigration reform, along the lines of the thing that was left out of the intelligence bill, which is imposing on states certain requirements, they can't issue driver's license for illegal immigrants, maybe a separate drivers license for legal immigrants so that you can identify them. I think that's a definite that they're going to do. I think there will be probably a push for more, tighter border, maybe more sanctions things like that. I don't think the president plans -

>> Michael Grant:
Large guest worker program.

>> Mark Flatten:
The large guest worker program with the multiple arrows back and forth, returning to your home country and paying your fine, I don't think that is going to be passed this coming year.

>> Michael Grant:
Howie.

>> Howard Fischer:
It is the guest worker program that hits the hardest the business community. Bush's people want the guest worker program. They don't want to cut off the flow of the people across the border, they have become financially dependent on it. It is so politically divisive. I think if you're going to get action on that, you will get it in 2005, rather than during an election year in 2006. I'm going to go on a limb, say in fact there is an immigration reform bill passed with changes in the guest worker program and perhaps including some normalization status, those here for some period of time will be entitled to a map to citizenship - not automatic, but sort of a road map on that.

>> Mark Flatten:
I think what they saw in the last election is that people are frustrated and they don't want to go to the amnesty route. I think that's going to scare off a lot of people in Congress who might otherwise have gone for it.

>> Michael Grant:
Speaking of potentially divisive issues, does the legislature refer to the people a constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage?

>> Howard Fischer:
If they keep it simple-- in other words, if the only thing they say is marriage is between one man and one woman and the courts may not order otherwise, that's fine. I think where they may lose is if they also say courts may not impose rights for gay couples. I think that loses them votes.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think this legislature has been heading in that direction, the election suggests that they've got the sort of people that want something like that, I think they'll come up with a proposal.

>> Michael Grant:
Do they pass it?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think they'll probably pass it. I don't know that it's going to be you know the big hard fought issue. There's really I guess at this point no reason to pass it or not pass it. We've got the federal defensive marriage act and the state's also got one which has been upheld by the court. They'll pass it essentially as a symbolic gesture.

>> Michael Grant:
Do they pass it because of 2006 political gubernatorial?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think there will be some, but that that's their motivation they will try to put together. She said she supported traditional marriage. They're going to try to use it to force her in a corner, but I don't think she'll be backed into one.

>> Michael Grant: I always do this, I run out of time. I need a sure shot and long shot.

>> Doug MacEachern:
My sure shot is that someone in Hollywood will make a major motion picture with overtly religious themes that tries to take in the sort of box office of the Passion of the Christ. My long shot, major Social Security reform passes.

>> Michael Grant:
Sure shot, long shot.

>> Howard Fischer:
Long shot is that the Arizona Daily Star and sold to Gannett and we all become Republic employees. My sure shot is next year I'll have less hair, you'll have more.

>> Michael Grant:
Mark.

>> Mark Flatten:
My long shot was going to be that the president's immigration reform bill goes nowhere, and my sure shot is that Kyl goes nowhere either.

>> Michael Grant:
We are completely out of time. Thank you very much. I'm sure we'll be very accurate for 2005. Thanks very much for joining us this evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

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