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August 24, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· KAET-ASU poll;
· Congressional races
In-Studio Guests:
· Dr. Bruce Merrill, Director, KAET-ASU poll;
· Kathleen Ingley, "ArizonaRepublic" editorial board;
· Doug MacEachern, "Arizona Republic" editorial board.

>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," the latest KAET-ASU poll shows independent voters may play a deciding role in who wins the presidential election in Arizona. The poll also found fewer voters support a ballot measure that limits government benefits to illegal immigrants, although the majority still support the initiative. Plus, Representative Jeff Flake is one of many incumbent congressmen who face credible challengers in the primary election. We'll preview those congressional races. Good evening I'm Michael Grant. Welcome to "Horizon. "President Bush opens up a lead against his challenger, Senator John Kerry, and support drops for the Protect Arizona Now initiative. Those are just a couple of the results of the latest KAET-Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University poll. The poll of 400 registered voters was taken from August19th through the 22nd and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.Here are the results.

>> Michael Grant:
Here now to explain the poll results is Bruce Merrill, Director of the KAET-ASU poll.

>> Mike Sauceda:
The poll found that 47% of registered voters would cast ballots for President Bush, while 39% support Senator John Kerry.14% haven't made up their minds. Among voters with the highest probability of voting, the race tightened. In that group, 45% support Bush, 42% vote for Kerry, and 13% are undecided. Voters are steadfast in the support of their candidate.94% of those supporting Kerry say they plan to stick with their man.86% are sticking with Bush. Undecided voters are leaning toward Bush, 53% to 47%. We also asked voters about President Bush's performance,51% approve of the job he has done overall and 43% disapprove.46% approve of the way the president is handling the U.S. economy, while 47% disapprove.51% think the president is doing a good job in the war againstterrorism.46% approval of the way the president is handling the war in Iraq while 54% do not. Support is down for the Arizona taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act being pushed by Protect Arizona Now. The measure is aimed at denying services and voting rights to illegal immigrants. Last month, 74% supported the initiative. This month 64% support it, and22% are against it while 14%haven't made up their minds. Protect Arizona Now has named a racial separatist as chair woman of its national advisory board. We asked voters if this hurt orhelped.10% thought it helped.49% thought it hurt, and 41% had no opinion. Finally, we asked whether voters support ground level fogging to kill mosquitoes in an effort to stem the spread of West Nilevirus.64% support it.15% were opposed.21% had no opinion.

>> Michael Grant:
An improved set of numbers for the president from when we did this a month ago?

>> Bruce Merrill:
It is, Mike, but it is still not outside of what we call a statistical dead heat. Polls have plus or minus 5%sampling error. He does a little better than last month, but in the four months that we've been tracking, we can't really say anything other than it's a very close election in Arizona. Each one of them each month has gone up or down a little bit, but basically, all we can say from a polling point of view is it is still a very close race in Arizona.

>> Michael Grant:
Here is a peculiar thing. Most likely to vote, we asked questions to try to ascertain, are you really going to go to the polls, and you never ask are you going to go to the polls.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Because they all say they are.

>> Michael Grant:
No one wants to say "no, I'm not" to that question. Anyway, routinely when you go to most likely to vote, the R candidate always improves. In this particular case, we went from an 8-point spread to a 4-point spread?

>> Bruce Merrill:
It tightened up. It is very unusual. What I found is that the cycle graphics now, psycho graphics are how people feel as opposed to their education or their income level or gender or something like that. There are so many people that have such intense feelings, either for or against both of the candidates, that when you have very, very strong feelings, that actually increases your chance of voting. So somebody that we would normally put in the pool of high voters, like let's say a low --a person with a poor education, less than high school that doesn't make much money or something like that, they would normally not vote, but that person may hate George Bush so much, that he or she is going to vote, and so it's really kind of an interesting phenomenon. If you look at our poll results, 94% of Kerry's people say they are strongly committed to him and will not change. I think 89%, 90% of Bush's people are that way.

>> Michael Grant:
Does the same phenomena in large part explain why for the first time since1972, John Kerry did not get a bounce out of the Democratic National Convention?

>> Bruce Merrill:
That was one of the factors. There is one other factor, and that's that only 25 million people in America even saw the speech. And as you point out, the people that were most likely to turn in had already committed for Kerry. Very few of the Bush people do. Same thing is going to happen with bush. I don't think he'll get as big a bounce as we have in the past, largely because, you know, we're now approaching $500 million spent on the presidential election and over a billion has been spent nationwide when you throw in congressional races.

>> Michael Grant:
Right.

>> Bruce Merrill:
You'd have to live in a hole some place not to know what's going on and to have an opinion. And so I think that's a big part of the explanation.

>> Michael Grant:
You have pointed out several times that the key is approval rating and the president's approval rating improved this time around.

>> Bruce Merrill:
Well, again, but only a couple of points. And it's 51-52%. And remember with plus or minus5% error it, could be as low as47%.And you are right, though, Mike. The strongest predictor of who wins the election when you have an incumbent president is the approval rating of the incumbent the month before the election. So Bush is precariously low here. When you are around 50% and you are an incumbent, that's -- I'm sure he would like to have a little higher rating than that.

>> Michael Grant:
Protect Arizona Now moved from 74% approval to 64% approval and it's still overwhelming approval. But you were pointing out to me this time around we ask a significantly different question?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Yeah, you can't really even compare them. Last time we said how you feel about Arizona now, which is what the press was calling this thing. But when people go to vote on election day, all they'll see is proposition 200, and the title of the act, which does not have "protect Arizona Now," and it spells out what the act does and doesn't do, including the fact that state officials have to report suspicious people, people that they think are illegal immigrants. They have to report them, and if they don't, there is actually a misdemeanor penalty. So we included all of that in this particular question. I thought it was a pretty harsh question, and it was still 3 to1 favorable. So there is little question in my mind that, yes, how you word it and what you say is an important factor, but as it stands right now, there is a lot of support out there in Arizona for this initiative.

>> Michael Grant:
As we have discussed before, of course, in California, similar proposition, cleared handily?

>> Bruce Merrill:
It did. And the importance for Arizona, Michael, is that what it did in California is it really mobilized the Hispanic community and got them much more organized, much more involved in politics, which has had a very large effect on California politics over the last four years. And so I think that this bill or this initiative does have the ability to pull a few more Hispanics into the political process and maybe even get them a little bit better organized for the next four or five years.

>> Michael Grant:
Are you surprised by the result on the ground fogging on West Nile virus at all?

>> Bruce Merrill:
Not really. You have 65% of the people we talk to support it. Those with an opinion, it's 80%statewide, and in Maricopa County, it's 85%.I think there is a lot of people that are affected by pesticides and I don't minimize their concern and whether or not pesticides are good for you, but on the other hand, when you are talking about the mass public, there is a lot of concern about potential deaths associated with West Nile virus, and I think that's what people are reacting to.

>> Michael Grant:
I wasn't particularly surprised that a majority supported the operation, I just thought it might be a little narrower because there are people who obviously are concerned about --well, things floating around the air that kill bugs.

>> Bruce Merrill:
It's interesting. I did some of the interviews. And I talked with a lady about this from Iowa that had moved here from Iowa. So many people have moved here from Iowa, farm country, what do they do in farm country?

>> Michael Grant:
Sure.

>> Bruce Merrill:
They have pesticides. And so I think so many people are here from the Midwest, it's not a big deal or a new deal to them.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay. Bruce Merrill, thank you for the information.

>> Bruce Merrill:
And thank the volunteers again. They did a great job this week.

>> Michael Grant:
Absolutely.

>>> Michael Grant:
Only one of four incumbent congressmen face primary competition in 2002.This year half of the state's eight congressmen face challengers in the primary election. Some of them are giving incumbents a run for their money. Others face formidable obstacles. Here to preview the primary congressional races is Doug MacEachern and Kathleen Ingley, both members of the "ArizonaRepublic" editorial board. One of the most competitive races is in District 6 between Congressman Jeff Flake and former lawmaker Stan Barnes. Here is a look at the candidates.

>> Paul Atkinson:
43-year-old Stan Barnes lives in Mesa. The political consultant and lobbyist formerly served as a state lawmaker in both houses. Barnes' top three congressional priorities; the war on terrorism, stopping illegal immigration by improving border security, and ensuring Arizona gets back the gas tax dollars the federal government takes and spends elsewhere.

>> Paul Atkinson:
41-year-old Jeff Flake lives in Mesa. He was first elected to congress in 2000.Flake is the former executive director of the Goldwater Institute, a conservative Arizona-based think tank. His three top priorities; meaningful immigration reform, reducing gas tax and pork barrel transportation spending, and ensuring national security by improving our readiness to fight terrorism.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, no doubt this is really the premier of the primaries, and it's interesting from the standpoint that obviously both of them have very strong conservative credentials and sometimes you say, well, why is it that the two of them are running against each other?

>> Doug MacEachern:
It really is a good question in a lot of respects. These are two similar people politically. They have known each other for years. Their kids go to the same school. They live in the same neighborhood. And as I said, in political issues, they generally line up very much the same. Some have suggested that Stan Barnes is interested in this race is a strategic move, perhaps setting himself up as the premier candidate next time around since Jeff Flake has reportedly -- to this point, limited himself to three terms.

>> Michael Grant:
He is waffling a little bit.

>> Doug MacEachern:
He's hedging. It's interesting to ask him about that question, about his self-imposed term limits.

>> Michael Grant:
Kathleen, I guess two real issues playing here, number one, Barnes says that Flake is not bringing home enough bacon for the district, and the second one is the immigration reform issue.

>> Kathleen Ingley::
Right, right, yes. Flake has been one of the authors of immigration reform and has come up with a plan that includes guest workers and a mechanism for people who are here after paying a fine to become citizens. Stan Barnes says this is a poor idea that, what we need to do is we just need to baton down the hatches at the border and see if we can stop things there. And the other -- and another area that they have been battling on is the who can really get things done. This is a little bit mushy, but Stan is saying, I'll go there, I'll get something done, I won't stand on my principles. He claims that Flake too often will vote against bills just to make a point, to make a point and not -- for instance, not supporting the rail that we would very much like to get some federal money for here in Maricopa County.

>> Doug MacEachern:
It's a very narrow line that Stanley travels. He doesn't want to come out and explicitly say don't count on me to stand on my principles as the incumbent does, but in a sense, it's sort of what he's saying. And it's very -- on the flip side, it's very difficult for, I think, a Republican primary voter to look at this candidate and say, I put him in office four years ago. He's done exactly what I've said, why do I want to vote against him exactly, again?

>> Michael Grant:
Well, let's head west. Trent Franks, the incumbent in District 2 is finding himself against a well-financed opponent. Here's a look at the candidates in that republican primary.

>> Paul Atkinson:
47-year-old Trent Franks lives in Glendale. He was elected to his first term in congress in 2002.Franks has previously owned a small business. His top three priorities for congress; protect Luke Air Force Base from closure, finish the Hoover Dam bypass, and reduce unfunded federal mandates imposed on states.

>>> Paul Atkinson:
54-year-old Rick Murphy lives in Bullhead City, but also has a home in Peoria. He owns five rural radio stations. Murphy's three type priorities, Insurance solvency of Social Security, improve access to health care and fulfill promises to military veterans.

>> Michael Grant:
Kathleen, Rick, Murphy owns four or five radio stations in western Arizona. He's bringing some serious money to this race.

>> Kathleen Ingley:
He is. This is a big contrast with the flake-barnes race where flake looks to outspend Barnes 10-1.Here you have Murphy coming in with what he said a million dollars, and Franks still with debt from the past campaign. And as a matter of fact, that's where -- right there, you see what Murphy's platform is. He says that Franks is taking money from special interests. Campaigned saying I'm not going to take money from special interests. He has looked at his debts and said, well, you know, these are people who have legitimate political rights to donate money and I'll take some.

>> Michael Grant:
Are there any real issue difference floating between the two?

>> Doug MacEachern:
They are surprisingly close. Actually, when you go down the list and stack Murphy against Trent Franks in terms of what they support, both of them, I think, come out pretty palatable politically for your basic Republican primary voter. The interesting thing that I think Murphy is doing is challenging him on the matter of his -- not taking PAC money. It's not an issue that resonates, I don't think, with voters this time around.

>> Michael Grant:
Unless he's trying to -- as Kathleen indicated, load it up as a broken promise kind of thing, sometimes that will, but I tend to agree with you.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Trent's reaction to it is simple, yeah, you got me there. That's an interesting issue, go for it.

>> Kathleen Ingley:
We should mention, Murphy does have one other point that he's hitting on quite hard and that's Medicare. He does the broken promises them with Franks who ended up voting for Medicare, having said or having not voted for it, and he says that Franks was pressured by the White house. Franks says no, there would have been a worse bill and that's why I voted as I did. Murphy takes issue with the cost, and says that we should have the government have more power to bargain on prices for medications.

>> Michael Grant:
Three candidates are vying for the District 2seat in congress for the Democratic nomination. Here is a look at each.

>> Paul Atkinson:
44-year-old Randy Camacho of Goodyear teaches high school social studies. He was the Democratic candidate for Congressional District 2losing to Trent Franks two years ago. His top three priorities, making government responsible through a balanced government, reforming healthcare and immigration reform. The 71-year-old Larry Coor lives in Litchfield Park where he served on the city council. He spent 20 years in the U.S. Navy and another 17 years as a foreign diplomat for the State Department. Coor's three important priorities; improve senior healthcare by adjusting Medicare benefits, creating more jobs while improving salaries, and fully funding the no child left behind act.57-year-old Gene Scharer lives in Glendale where he teaches high school. He is an Army veteran and ran for Congress in 2000.His top three issues; stopping illegal immigration by going after employers, improve healthcare by phasing in a national system and creating jobs by reducing taxes on the working class and using tax incentives to keep jobs in the U.S

>> Michael Grant:
Doug you pointed out to me, Larry Coor is Lattie Coor's brother, the former president of Arizona State University.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Older brother, yes. When you sit down with Larry Coor and talk with him, the similarities jump out at you. You can tell once you start talking to him that they are related.

>> Michael Grant:
Now, the registration advantage, if I recall correctly, for Republicans in this particular district is somewhat overwhelming?

>> Kathleen Ingley:
5-3.

>> Michael Grant:
This is a scrap for the right to lose? Is that what it amounts to?

>> Doug MacEachern:
You could characterize it that way. Heaven knows it's going to be a tough row to hoe for the Democratic party candidate, whoever wins. That said, some very interesting candidates. Randy Camacho is a salt of the earth kind of guy who has been there all of his life and I believe he's kind of come up the ladder in his own school. He was a custodian at one time in the very school that he's teaching in now, which is a Great American success story.

>> Michael Grant:
Kathleen, if I recall correctly, Camacho, given the registration advantage in the district, didn't - placing things in context, didn't do that badly a couple of years ago against Trent Franks.

>> Kathleen Ingley:
Right, yes. He's been up against Trent Franks. He says that he has learned, start early. He also points out that he had acrot of crossover votes. He thinks that, you know, this time around, he could win it. Of course, you know, it's different when you are up against an incumbent. We -- speaking about as Doug was saying impressive candidates, Coor has great foreign service background, knows a lot of international issues. Sharer characterizes himself as progressive but a true conservative on things that matter to the folks in the district. None of them are positioning very far to the left.

>> Michael Grant:
A former public affairs director at Planned Parenthood takes on J.D. Hayworth for Congressional District 5.Here is a look at both of those candidates.

>> Paul Atkinson:
46-year-oldJ.D. Hayworth lives in Scottsdale. He served in Congress since 1995and formerly worked as a TV sportscaster. His top three priorities in Congress; winning the war on terror while strengthening national security, improving Arizona's economy, and improving education.

>>> Paul Atkinson:
59-year-old Roselyn O'Connell lives in Scottsdale. A transportation planning and engineering consultant by profession, she is president of the National Women's Political Caucus. Her top three goals; balancing the budget while prioritizing spending, investing in education, and improving access to affordable healthcare.

>> Michael Grant:
Kathleen, J.D. Hayworth is a very large target to try to take on now. He's not as large a target as he used to be.

>> Kathleen Ingley:
No, he's not.

>> Michael Grant:
He really has slimmed down.

>> Kathleen Ingley
: J.D. has slimmed down, tanned up. He has great-looking suits. He obviously is preparing for possibly running for Governor as well as this term in the house.

>> Michael Grant:
Is this a big pro-life/pro-choice campaign?

>> Kathleen Ingley:
They are not campaigning on those issues. It is a subtext because while O'Connell is trying to hit JD on the fiscal side saying he is a wild spend thrift, something that people I've talked to said this isn't going to resonate with voters because it goes against what they think of J.D. They don't think of him as a spend thrift. She is saying I'm the moderate alternative. She is the one who is pro-choice. If you look at her list of backers, Planned Parenthood is there. She makes no secret of that. She is looking to appeal to the independents and moderate Republicans.

>> Michael Grant:
J.D. Hayworth has paid a lot of attention to this district.

>> Doug MacEachern:
He has, yes, he has. He's been -- as a matter of fact, we were speaking just the other day with representative of a Native American group. They are very high on J.D. It's a group that's traditionally goes Democratic, they have no problem with him at all.

>> Michael Grant:
They talk about the advantage of the incumbent and certainly one of the clear advantages of the incumbents and they've gotten a lot better of it over the past 30, 40 years is delivery of constituent services inside of their own districts.

>> Doug MacEachern:
One of the things that J.D. did that I would never have expected from him is support for light rail funding for the City of Phoenix -- or for the Valley's light rail project.

>> Michael Grant:
Two Democrats are also running in Congressional District 5.We look at them.

>> Paul Atkinson:
49-year-old Ron Maynard of Chandler is an electrical contractor who served in the United States Air Force special forces. His top three issues; focus on medical research to reduce healthcare costs, tax reform, and eliminating the national debt.

>>> Paul Atkinson:
25-year-old Elizabeth Rogers lives in Tempe. She works as a medical claims clerk, having previously worked in customer care. Rogers' top three priorities if elected; improve America's healthcare system, increase school funding, including colleges, and reduce the potential for forest fires.

>> Michael Grant:
Kathleen, what do we know about these candidates?

>> Kathleen Ingley:
Well, not -- O'Connell -- I'm sorry, Elizabeth Rogers is very energetic and, you know, the energy that you would expect from someone coming out of - a Howard Deaniac. Lots of enthusiasm. Maynard is more experienced. He has big interest in healthcare issues. His own stem cell research is one of his big issues.

>> Michael Grant:
One last race to look at is Arizona's senior congressman Jim Kolbe facing competition from a conservative lawmaker down south.

>> Paul Atkinson:
45-year-old Randy Graf lives in Green Valley south of Tucson. He served in the Arizona House of Representatives since 2000,and is majority whip. Graf previously worked as a golf pro. His top three priorities; Stopping illegal immigration, preventing Arizona military bases from closing and lowering federal taxes while making sure Arizona gets back what it pays in taxes.

>>> Paul Atkinson:
51-year-old Jim Kolbe is from Tucson. A 10-term congressman and veteran formerly worked as a real estate development consultant. His top three priorities, win the war on terror by adopting the 9/11 recommendations, bring more resources to improve security, and make access to healthcare more affordable.

>> Michael Grant:
He's the lawmaker facing Jim Kolbe, but he's a very strong campaigner down there.

>> Doug MacEachern:
This is a classic Republican primary in my view. I think that this is sort of a referendum on the pan campaign, on the immigration issue. Graf challenging from the right.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug MacEachern, thank you for being here. Kathleen Ingley, our thanks to you as well.

>>> Michael Grant
: If you want to visit a candidate's web site, go to our home page at www.kaet.asu.edu. If you click on "Horizon" and look for today's date, you'll find a link that contains web sites for congressional candidates.

>>> Michael Grant:
"Horizon" is back on Thursday. Republican candidate Dan Saban will join me to talk about his run for office. Sheriff Arpaio declined our invitation. Also a preview of the crowded race for Maricopa County attorney. Thanks for joining us this evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one, good night.

 

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