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August 17, 2004

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· Legislative Races;
· Black Expo
In-Studio Guests:
· Le Templar, "East Valley Tribune;"
· Chip Scutari, "Arizona Republic;"
· Denise Meredith, CEO, Black Expo leadership consortium

>> Michael Grant:
The signs are all around, so the primary election must be near. Tonight on "Horizon," a look at legislative races. Some pit current lawmakers going for the same suit, some want to unseat incumbents. Plus a preview of a weekend trade show that highlights African American entrepreneurs. Redistricting and term limits are making for interesting legislative races come primary election day in just three weeks. There are also other subplots in this year's election, such as conservative and moderate Republicans going head to head after a contentious year at the legislature. First lets give you some perspective. There are 10 fewer contested primary races for this year than in 2002. But those 28 races, 7 in the senate, 21 in the house, are about average for a legislative election over the past 10 years. Since 1994, the typical legislative election features 30 competitive races, 9 in the senate, 21 in the house. Here to break down this year's primary races are Le Templar of the "East Valley Tribune" and Chip Scutari of the "Arizona Republic." Lets start with what is turning out to be a pretty contentious senate race in district 20. That encompasses Ahwatukee and Chandler. Senator Slade Mead and John Huppenthal, who previously served 8 years in the senate before term limits forced him to run for the house. Le, I think is kind of poster child for the conservative moderate struggle, is it not?

>> Le Templar:
Absolutely. John Huppenthal has been well known for a conservative voice in terms of avoiding any tax increases, limiting government growth, alternative choices in education, charter schools. He was a key proponent of that a decade ago through the past decade. Whereas Slade Mead has played a critical role in supporting some of Janet Napolitano's policies on budget issues, a strong defender of additional funding for K-12, universities, community colleges, which has been a priority of the Governor's and willing to buck the senate and Republican leadership on those issues.

>> Michael Grant:
Well, Chip, obviously it was the combination of Linda Binder and Slade Mead last year on the budget which forced -- left the Republicans without a majority to approve the budget in the senate?

>> Chip Scutari:
Yeah, and he angered a lot of people with that vote, being the renegade with Senator Binder. And this is the one primary that really has a statewide feel to it. It's intense and there is a lot of money and pressure on both of these candidates. The thing that John Huppenthal is trying to get across to voters is that Slade Mead is not one of us, he is an FOJ, friend of Governor Janet Napolitano. John Huppenthal was against Governor Napolitano's all-day kindergarten plan saying it costs too much. Slade Mead was a big backer of it. So you can't really confuse the two. So it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out in this overarching moderate versus conservative race.

>> Michael Grant:
A lot of it hinges on how much of the Ahwatukee vote turns out?

>> Le Templar:
Yes, the maximum in Arizona has been in Republican primaries, the conservative base comes out, that's who tends to win in these races when it comes down to this. Ahwatukee has a lot of independent voters. That is where Slade Mead is strongest because he kits on the Kyrene school board district, and so if he can get his supporters out, he has an excellent shot at John Huppenthal, but if they don't come out, it's likely that John's will.

>> Chip Scutari:
In theory, if any moderate, if you want to call Slade moderate, some call him a liberal Republican, could win, it should be him because he is on the school board. He's been walking neighborhoods. He's got teachers unions. He's got firefighters. A lot of people might do independent expenditures for him as they will do for Huppenthal. In theory, he might be the one who can do it but as we mentioned in our pre-game warm-up, September 7th is right after Labor Day, and that's going to bode well for John Huppenthal and his supporters.

>> Michael Grant:
Five Republican candidates are vying for the two district 20 house seats. Jeff Dial, John McComish, Anton Orlich Robson and Linda Wellenger.

>> Le Templar:
Representative Robson is the only incumbent. He teamed up with John McComish in order to know he could have somebody to work with. He will run for house speaker if he wins. And formerly, they are being challenged by the other team of Jeff Dial and Orlich who describe themselves as conservatives in this race. They are strongly opposed to the Governor's budget, strong on social issues. They have trouble questioning Bob ROBSON's positions, but have gone after John McComish. The person circling on the outside trying to find her way in is Linda Wegener. Generally considered a moderate, a little bit more fiscally conservative, a small business owner and former educator.

>> Michael Grant:
Chip, you were making the point that this leadership struggle is another subplot, theme that plays in a number of these races.

>> Chip Scutari:
Underlying in most of these races is the house leadership races. There is five or six or seven people running for house speaker next year, and of course, Bob Robson wants to be the speaker and has made no secret about it. He has to be careful of the Mike Gardner rule where the former Tempe rep was campaigning so hard to be speaker that he forgot about the campaign. Bob Robson has to play the balance between campaign in his district while also campaigning for speaker. He's hoping a guy like John McComish is another safe vote for him for speaker. Another big issue in addition to the moderate versus conservatives at play is who are going to be the votes for speaker, John McComish will be a big one, we'll get to other people who will vote for him over Eddie Farnsworth.

>> Michael Grant:
One of the most watched races are the primary in central Phoenix. Redistricting Representative John Allen in a contest with Alberto Gutier and Steve Tully, Deb Gullett dropping out after she was challenged. Alberto Gutier has worked this district for a long time, Chip. What do you think about this one?

>> Chip Scutari:
He's been at the capital more than the cleaning crews. He's always at the capitol, always in the press room. He's lived in that district for 60 years. He just got endorsed by Senator John McCain who endorsed Steve Tully. He's an unusual first-time candidate. John Allen is an incumbent but from district 7 which is a completely different area. I think Tully is the odds-on favorite. Then it's a battle between Mr. Gutier and Mr. Allen to see who can get out, once again, the moderate vote for Alberto Gutier on September 7th. That'll be a huge plus for him.

>> Michael Grant:
Incumbent Steve Tully ran strongly last time.

>> Le Templar: He surprised everybody by finishing as the top vote getting in the primary two years ago running with public financing. He is a hard campaigner, he does a lot of door-to-door and visiting with groups. And a little less focused on mass media advertising. I think that's one of the reasons he caught people off guard.

>> Michael Grant:
Any -- I hesitate to mention this, but any issues that play in any of these races?

>> Le Templar:
In particular, John Allen is a good example. He is campaigning hard on fiscal issues and on social issues, on -- are you going to stand up for a ban on same sex marriages, federal constitutional amendment will you support informed consent. The bill was vetoed by the Governor. And he's carrying that conservative banner as hard as he can. He's trying to push Alberto around on that, particularly since Alberto says he's personally pro life, but generally would vote probably pro-choice based on the specific issue.

>> Chip Scutari:
If you read some of the campaign material, you'd think that the only two abortions -- I mean, the only two issues that the legislature deals with is abortion and gay marriage. It's so heavy on the social issues in the Republican primary issues. None of the budget battle has really surfaced a lot and only in some key races, but really hard on the social issues and a lot of these districts.

>> Michael Grant:
John, the thought, the NRA promised retribution perhaps for the failure to pass the guns in bars bill. Any evidence that that's been playing at all?

>> Le Templar:
Not so far. Our history has been in the last couple of election cycles with Clean Elections, that the independent expenditures for the most part try to wait until right before the primary day as opposed to the start of early voting. That could still be coming.

>> Michael Grant:
It could be?

>> Le Templar:
It could be.

>> Michael Grant:
Of course, early voting, the problem it may render part that have strategy null and void --

>> Le Templar:
That's true.

>> Michael Grant:
Because people vote early.

>> Le Templar:
For the first time, election officials predict that most over half of the ballots will be in from early voting. The overall turnout will be smaller because the primary is after Labor Day.

>> Michael Grant:
Linda Binder is not running, which sweeps a lot of northwest Arizona hoping to take her place is Ron GOULD. He faces Joe hart and Bill Wagner. What you do think, Chip?

>> Chip Scutari:
I would say if this was a straight up race between the two house incumbents, Wagner and Joe hart, Joe hart might have the edge as being a stronger conservative, but with Ron Gould in the race, a very conservative gentleman, Wagner has the edge. Binder endorsed him. You know, he was a fire chief up in Bullhead City, very popular among them. So I think it's going to be a close race, but I think in the long run, Wagner could squeak by because of the third person in the race.

>> Michael Grant:
The wife of Mesa mayor Keno Hawker is challenging Republican incumbent Karen Johnson for the district 18 senate seat. What do you think, does Mary Jo Vecchirelli have a chance?

>> Le Templar:
She pulled in a lot of political players in Mesa to support her to show she is a credible player here and despite what she and Karen Johnson will say, you look at this race from the outside and the real differences are pretty paper thin. They are very much like-minded conservatively. Mary Jo is campaigning on working better with the Governor and moderate Republicans that are still going to have a lot of sway, regardless of how things go. Karen Johnson has a record of being staunchly conservative and not willing to -- she would say play games, other people would say compromise, when it comes to key issues.

>> Michael Grant:
In that particular district, Chip, certainly railing against the 9th floor may get you a couple of votes.

>> Chip Scutari:
But Lee covers this district closer. Isn't it true that the district is changing a little bit? It's still conservative but not as conservative as five or six years ago?

>> Le Templar:
Right. It's get more diverse, more Hispanics live in the district now than used to, and that has potential for change. But the question is, who is going to turn out in the primary? Clearly the trend here is only the conservative base comes out before the general election. And for somebody to change the dynamic -- play off the change of dynamics, they have to get those other potential investigators to the polls. I don't think that will happen.

>> Michael Grant:
Susan Burk, the school board president of the school valley school district challenge jack Harper for the district 4 seat that covers the northwest valley. How is that race shaping up?

>> Chip Scutari:
Senator Harper for -- he is a colorful character at the legislature and he's -- he works hard in his district. He is walking a lot. He's been walking for several months. I think Ms. Burke faces a real uphill battle and it looks like Harper is going to take that seat. He beat a moderate, Ed Cirillo, when he ran last time and now he's taken over the reins of that district. Until someone with more conservative credentials comes along, it looks like he will win that district if turnout is what we think it's going to be and conservatives come out to vote on September 7th.

>> Le Templar:
The other thing is senator Harper, whatever else you want to say about him, has kept in mind who lives in this district and it's dominated by the Sun Cities. He's kept in mind the mindset of older residents and their issues throughout his two-years in office, and I think that's probably going to play well through the rest of this primary season.

>> Michael Grant:
When you talk about efficacious Republicans in primaries, there are no more efficacious Republicans in primaries than the residents of Sun City; right?

>> Chip Scutari:
That's exactly why Senator Harper has been walking that district for months. It really pays off, the personal contact in the district. You know those voters will come out in primaries. The other thing we should just mention maybe as a public service to or audience is that most people don't know independents can vote in Republican primaries, and they can make a huge difference now because they are about 23% of the electorate. Most independents just take a pass on primaries. They think it's a Republican or Democrat thing, but they really can make a difference if they cared in some of these primaries.

>> Michael Grant:
It's interesting, though, oftentimes some of the issues that are playing are not necessarily motivating a lot of independents to show up in September, more motivated perhaps obviously to show up in November.

>> Le Templar:
The one race I'm aware of where candidates are clearly reaching out trying to grab independents is Slade Mead. It was a strategy when he first ran for office and he's playing it big again. He has admitted, without independents it's nearly impossible for him to win that district.

>> Michae Grant:
Term limits force District 23 Senator Pete Rios to run against two other Democratic incumbents in the house, Ernest Bustamonte and Cheryl Chase. The district sweeps Pinal and Gila County. I'm feeling a sense of déjà~vu all over again.

>> Le Templar:
Remember 20 years ago or so, Senator Rios went from being the senate president to run for Secretary of State, so his daughter Rebecca Rios ran and held the seat. Two years later she stepped down and he ran again and won. He's been there ever since. Term limits caught up with him. Rather than get out of politics entirely he decided to make a play for the house. His daughter is running for his senate seat in the same district and the outcome here is Ernest Bustamante who was a low vote getter of the two incumbents two years ago has to be worried. The Rios name is extremely well known, even with the redistricting process that took place, and Pete Rios, as far as I know has never lost an election in the district.

>> Chip Scutari:
Also, Cheryl chase is being the one female in the group that pays dividends. With Rios' popular name, his long-term service, he's been out in that district for a long time, and he's one of the few Democrats at the capitol who really hold sway with Republicans and Democrats and all of these budget battles for the last four, five years. He really has a lot of credentials with conservative Republicans. I look for him to win and with Cheryl Chase.

>> Michael Grant:
As Le mentioned, here who is running to replace Rios, Bob Mitchell facing Rebecca Rios. Married to former house minority John Lorado. Does Mitchell have a chance?

>> Le Templar:
Definitely. He's the brother, of course, the current city Harry Mitchell from Tempe, a popular mayor of Casa Grande which has grown a lot the last decade. There is a larger voter base to work from. He's fighting the Rios name at this point. We'll just have to see if he can overcome it.

>> Michael Grant:
Mitchell is a powerful name as well.

>> Chip Scutari:
Yeah…Mitchell and Rios, it's a family affair for both families.

>> Michael Grant:
Senator Carolyn Allen is facing challenger Robert Ditchey in the primary race. Is that another classic conservative-moderate showdown?

>>Le Templar:
It is in that Carolyn Allen has coined all year about senate Republicans trying to -- conservative Republicans trying to set her up to be knocked off by a challenger, because she's pro-choice, was one of the key votes that blocked a resolution supporting a federal constitutional amendment. The problem in this race is Carolyn Allen raised a ton of money, over $100,000, through May. I mean, who knows what she's raised since then. Robert Ditchey was having trouble getting qualified for Clean Elections funding. Being that he is not well known, although I think he did run for office two years ago, just defeating the power of incumbency with a ton of money to campaign with, who knows if there is a real race or not.

>> Chip Scutari:
The other big thing that Senator Allen goes for her is everyone knows her on that district. She was on the Scottsdale planning committee several years back and really has a nice political machine. She kind of fits the blue blood Scottsdale area. A lot of people like her. She has defended the arts funding over the years. She has made a name for herself so Robert Ditchey has his work cut out for him.

>> Michael Grant:
She is a very strong presence in that district.

>> Chip Scutari:
And she has been for sometime now.

>> Michael Grant:
Newcomer Royce Flora taking on Michele Reagan and Colette Rosati. Chip, an e-mail is causing a stir in that race.

>> Chip Scutari:
Yeah, Representative Rosati sent out an e-mail to some of her supporters. It was really silly and uncalled for, kind of mocking her two opponents for kind of questioning why they don't have children, and you know representative Reagan responded kind of in a joking manner that boy boyfriend would get a kick out of this and Royce Flora was upset because him and his wife have tried to have kids. She's had illnesses and operations. So it really backfired on Rosati. There will be some independent expenditures on behalf of Royce Flora and Michele Reagan. That's one area, which could play into the speakers race if Royce Flora beats Rosati. Rosati only beat Jenny Chen by 60 votes in a heavily Republican district.

>> Michael Grant:
Four Republicans vying for District 7. Ray Barnes, Wes Marsh, David Burnell Smith and Tom Von Hapsburg. Le, any clear-cut favorites there?

>> Le Templar:
Marsh has an ability to tell the truth on his record, getting a lot of attention. The trick has been in this district, the four challengers have been trying to out-conservative each other, but then Von Hapsburg who is gay and used to be president of the Arizona Republicans finds himself under fire from the other conservatives, particularly Barnes and Burnell Smith, for his sexual orientation and he's arguing well, a lot of -- well not a lot, but we have several lawmakers that have served effectively and that shouldn't be an issue. We'll see what the voters think.

>> Chip Scutari:
This is a district where turnout will be huge. It really helps Von Hapsburg and hurts the others. We'll see what happens.

>> Michael Grant:
District 6 features four candidates in the Republican house race, Ted Carpenter, Pamela Gorman, Clancy Jayne and Rick Robinson. Chip, Clancy Jayne was sort of key in the house Republican budget revolt. Is that playing particularly strongly in that district?

>> Chip Scutari:
Well, yeah, this is interesting. Clancy Jayne was called a moderate even though he's pro life, has 100% voting record for the NRA, but he dared to challenge house leadership on the budget to fund education, universities. So he's kind of being attacked by more conservative groups, but I think when all is said and done, he should do well and him and Ted Carpenter will probably prevail because it's so tough beating incumbents in Republican primaries because of the low voter turnout.

>> Michael Grant:
That district is basically north Phoenix?

>> Chip Scutari:
North Phoenix, yeah, roughly around there. Clancy Jayne had run for City Counsel and went to the State House after that.

>> Michael Grant:
Well, that was -- we got to as many of those as we could, and I think, you know, a lot of the key races, certainly. Chip Scutari, Arizona republic, thanks for being here.

>> Chip Scutari:
Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Le Templar, our thanks to you as well. We'll see what happens in three weeks.

>> Le Templar:
Absolutely.

>> Michael Grant: Different kind of trade show at the Phoenix Civic Plaza this weekend. It is the fourth annual Arizona Black Expo. Earlier this evening I talked to Denise Meredith, CEO of the leadership consortium about the trade show. Denise, welcome back. What's the Arizona black exposition?

>> Denise Meredith:
Well, we're pretty excited this year. The Arizona black expo will be at the Civic Plaza down on 111 north Third Street. This year we'll have the black expo. That involves -- we'll have 200 booths. It's a trade show. This is the largest minority trade show in Phoenix, and so august 21st this, Saturday, there is going to be 4,000 attendees there at Phoenix.

>> Michael Grant:
Why a black exposition?

>> Denise Meredith:
It's really an opportunity to showcase black talent and black business skills. A lot of people I talked to, they don't -- you say name a black business and they go huh? They just can't think of one. Here you are going to see quite a few on display, quality goods, quality services. So it's a great opportunity for African American businesses to showcase themselves.

>> Michael Grant:
I understand that the founder of famous Amos cookies is going to be a speaker?

>> Denise Meredith:
Wally Amos comes on at 12:30 there at the Phoenix room and he's going to talk about the ups and downs of business because he's certainly had them.

>> Michael Grant:
How has the exposition -- this is its fourth year?

>> Denise Meredith:
Fourth year.

>> Michael Grant:
How has it changed, grown, matured over the years?

>> Denise Meredith:
Yeah, it's definitely grown. It's been bigger every year as far as attendance. It was started by Kevin and Sondra Solomon. They moved here in 2001. Blacks Expos are a big thing around the country. They are pretty popular cultural event in different cities across the country. They brought that idea with them and started it here.

>> Michael Grant:
Give me some idea of -- I mean, what component parts do I see on the floor? What engages my interest?

>> Denise Meredith:
Well, this year, we have a different setup. We are setting it up in villages. There will be different villages. There will be a media village and a hospitality village, a technology village and a children's village. So there will be lots of things for families to do. We're most excited about the health village in which people will be able to have screenings done and tests done and learn about different health issues, and the career work force village where there will be people there recruiting on site. So we asked people to bring résumés, be prepared to find a job or find a contract.

>> Michael Grant:
That's the jobs component.

>> Denise Meredith:
Uh-huh.

>> Michael Grant:
Is that new this year?

>> Denise Meredith:
Yeah, yeah. It's never been to this extent before that we're focusing on that. And we have every one from hunt Russell Alvarado and construction to the City of Glendale, city of Avondale, City of Phoenix. There is going to be a lot of people there looking for good folks.

>> Michael Grant:
So not necessarily -- I mean it sounds to me like from the entities you just ticked off that really a fairly wide selection of jobs not targeted at any particular economic sector?

>> Denise Meredith:
Yeah, it will be a wide selection of jobs.

>> Michael Grant:
What are some of the other reasons that is people should attend?

>> Denise Meredith:
Well, it's for majority owned companies it's a way to showcase their products to African American audience. African American buying power is very huge nationwide, $600 billion or so nationwide. Here in Phoenix, in Arizona, there is a lot of buying power in the African American community. I think we have sponsors like Wells Fargo, Business Journal, M & I bank, people like that. They want to reach these new audiences.

>> Michael Grant:
Give me the basic statistics on the exposition one more time.

>> It's at the Phoenix Civic Plaza, 111 North Third Street. It starts at 10:00. We'll have some early entertainment. We asked people to get there early. We'll be giving away special coupon books for Desert Ridge Mall for the first 500 that show up. There will be raffles all day long with great prizes. There will be entertainment all day long. Wally Amos is on at 12:30 and the whole thing runs until 6 p.m.

>> Michael Grant:
That's this Saturday?

>> Denise Meredith:
This Saturday.

>> Michael Grant:
Denise Meredith, thanks for joining us.

>> Denise Meredith:
Thanks for inviting me back.

>> Michael Grant:
If you would like more information on the topics on tonight's show visit our web site at www.kaet.asu.edu. If you click on "Horizon" and go to tonight's topics, you'll find a number of election related links.

>> Cutting edge biomedical research and a new medical school and hospital in downtown Phoenix, made possible through a partnership between ASU and an expanded U of A medical school. The Phoenix biomedical campus of the university system was announced last week. Find out what the plan means for the valley, Thursday at 7:00 on "Horizon."

>> Michael Grant:
Also Thursday, domestic violence, we'll look at an upcoming conference sponsored by the men's anti-violence network. On Friday, of course, the Journalists' Roundtable. I'm Michael Grant, have a great one, good night.

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