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transcripts
Transcripts
October 14, 2003
Host: Michael
Grant
Topics:
· Health and History of Arizona's Forests
In-Studio Guests:
Dr. Stephen Pyne,
Arizona State University professor
>> MICHAEL: TONIGHT ON HORIZON, THE HEALTH OF
ARIZONA'S FORESTS CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN, HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF ACRES HAVE BEEN LOST TO WILDFIRE IN THE PAST FEW
YEARS, MILLIONS MORE BEING DESTROYED BY THE BARK BEETLE INFESTATION.
FOREST EXPERTS SAY A NUMBER OF FACTORS HAVE LED TO THE SITUATION.
THE QUESTION NOW IS WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE. GOOD EVENING, I'M
MICHAEL GRANT, WELCOME TO A SPECIAL "FOREST ISSUES"
EDITION OF HORIZON. ARIZONA'S FORESTS ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE. BUT
THE UNDERLYING REASONS GO BACK MUCH FURTHER IN HISTORY THAN MANY
MIGHT THINK AND HAVE A GREAT DEAL TO DO WITH OUR ADVERSARIAL RELATIONSHIP
WITH WILDFIRE.
>> REPORTER: FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS, LONG NEEDLE PINES LIKE
THE PONDEROSA HAVE DOMINATED THE LANDSCAPE IN ARIZONA'S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, FORMING WHAT IS TODAY THE LARGEST PONDEROSA PINE FOREST
IN THE WORLD. BUT DURING THE LAST TWO CENTURIES, THE SERIES OF
MAN MADE CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE NUMBER OF
WILDFIRES THAT OCCUR NATURALLY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. BRINGING ABOUT
SOME VERY NEGATIVE CHANGES. RESEARCHER WALLY COVINGTON HAS BEEN
STUDYING FORESTS AND THE DYNAMICS THAT HAVE SHAPED THEM FOR ALMOST
THREE DECADE.
>>WALLY COVINGTON: FORESTS THIS DENSE ARE REALLY UNUSUAL
IN THE HISTORY OF PONDEROSA PINE ECOSYSTEMS. BEFORE SETTLEMENT,
THERE WERE ONLY ABOUT 20 TO 30 TREES PER ACRE ON THESE AREAS,
AND MOST OF THE TREES WERE THESE BIG YELLOW BARKED PINES WE SEE
HERE, TYPICALLY RANGING FROM 180 TO MAYBE 500-PLUS YEARS OLD IN
AGE. THE FORESTS WERE VERY OPEN AND PARK LIKE. THE FREQUENT FIRES
HELD PINE POPULATIONS IN CHECK SO THAT GRASSES AND WILDFLOWERS
COULD FLOURISH AS WELL AS TREES. BUT SHORTLY AFTER FIRE EXCLUSION,
A TREMENDOUS POPULATION ERUPTION BEGAN OF PONDEROSA PINE TREES.
YOU SEE THESE BEHIND ME HERE. THERE ARE NOW ALMOST 12 HUNDRED
TREES PER ACRE.
>> REPORTER: FOR EARLIER SETTLERS IN PLACES LIKE FLAGSTAFF,
TIMBER WAS A VALUABLE RESOURCE AND ESSENTIAL TO THE AREA'S GROWTH
AND PROSPERITY. AT THE TIME THE GOAL WAS TO MAXIMIZE THE HARVEST
OF WOOD. WILDFIRES WERE CONSIDERED WASTEFUL AND THEIR IMPORTANCE
TO THE FOREST WAS NOT UNDERSTOOD.
>> WALLY: WHEN YOU READ THE EARLY FOREST PLANS FROM BACK
IN THE EARLY PART OF THE 20TH CENTURY, EARLY FORESTERS ACTUALLY
ENCOURAGED OVERGRAZING BECAUSE THEY FIRE WAS SUCH A BIG THREAT
TO THE FOREST. AND THAT OVERGRAZING REMOVED THE GRASSES AND WILDFLOWERS
THAT HAD ALLOWED FIRES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE ON THAT HIGH
FREQUENCY.
>> REPORTER: RESEARCHERS ARE ABLE TO GAUGE THE BEHAVIORAL
HISTORICAL OF WILDFIRE BY EXAMINING CROSS SECTIONS OF OLD-GROWTH
TREES WHICH INDICATE NOT ONLY THE AGE OF THE TREE BUT ALSO HOW
OFTEN FIRES OCCURRED.
>> WALLY: EACH OF THESE LITTLE ARROWS THAT YOU SEE HERE
REPRESENTS A FIRE SCAR. THIS PARTICULAR TREE HAS A CENTER DATE
OF 1692. YOU CAN SEE STEADY FIRE SCARS UP UNTIL 1876. THEN WHEN
THE LIVESTOCK SHOWED UP, THAT'S WHAT STOPPED FIRES ORIGINALLY
HERE IN HERE. AFTER THE FREQUENT FIRES WERE DISRUPTED, THEN THERE
WAS NOTHING TO CONTROL PINE SEEDLING ESTABLISHMENT.
>> REPORTER: AS THE OVERALL NUMBER OF TREES IN THE FOREST
MULTIPLIES, THE COMPETITION FOR WATER AND NUTRIENTS BECOMES MORE
INTENSE. THERE IS AN INCREASE IN THE MORTALITY OF OLD GROWTH TREES
WHICH WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SAW SEPTEMBER TUBULE DROUGHT AND
ATTACK BY INSECTS LIKE THE BARK BEETLE. SPACES BETWEEN THE LARGE
TREES BECOME FILLED WITH DEAD VEGETATION, AND THE SMALLER YOUNGER
TREES CREATE FIRE LADDERS THAT EFFECTIVELY FUEL A VERY DIFFERENT
AND DEVASTATING KIND OF FIRE.
>> WALLY: INSTEAD OF FIRES BURNING THROUGH THE SURFACE
VEGETATION, WHICH WAS THE NATURAL FIRE REGIME, WHAT WE STARTED
SEEING IS FIRES GETTING UP INTO THE CANOPIES OF THESE OLD GROWTH
TREES AND THE FIRES ARE GETTING BIGGER AND BIGGER.
>> REPORTER: ACCORDING TO FOREST SERVICE RECORDS, BETWEEN
1910 AND 1930, THE OVERABUNDANCE OF TREES IN COMBINATION WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, HIGH WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION RESULTED IN
A SERIES OF CATASTROPHIC WILDFIRES IN A NUMBER OF STATES, INCLUDING
ARIZONA. CONSEQUENTLY, AN OFFICIAL POLICY OF FIRE SUPPRESSION
BEGAN TO EVOLVE OVER THE DECADE THAT FOLLOWED.
>> BRUCE: DURING THE '40S AND THE '50S WITH WE STARTED
TO PREVENT FIRES, VERY SPECIFIC DIRECTION IN FIRE POLICY TO SUPPRESS
FIRES, WE UTILIZED THROUGHOUT THE FOREST SERVICE, AND PARTICULAR
LOW PUBLIC LAND, DURING THIS SAME TIME WE HAD VERY ACTIVE, VERY
PROLIFIC REGENERATION IN THE FOREST.
>> WALLY: THE MAIN DUTY OF PUBLIC LAND MANAGERS WAS TO
PROTECT THE FORESTS. THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE PROTECTING THEM FROM
THE FIRE. IN FACT, THEY WERE JUST DELAYING FIRES, IS ALL THEY
WERE DOING.
>> WALLY: THROUGH THE '50S AND '60S, EVEN INTO THE '70S,
WE WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL IN MOST CASES OF SUPPRESSING FIRE. THE
VEGETATION IN THE FOREST CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME ESTABLISHED.
DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME, HERE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA FORESTS,
ON MANY OF THESE FORESTS, WE COULD EASILY HARVEST 150 MILLION
BOARD FEET A YEAR AND STILL HAVE WOOD FIBER GROWING MORE RAPIDLY
THAN WHAT WAS HARVESTED. SO IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE FOREST WE
WERE NOT EVEN KEEPING UP WITH THE GROWTH EVEN BY HARVESTING THE
TIMBER AT THAT TIME.
>> REPORTER: DURING ANOTHER 70S AND '80S, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
MOVEMENT BECAME A POWERFUL FORCE. LEGISLATION WAS ENACTED THAT
ALLOWED THE PUBLIC TO TAKE ON A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN NATURAL RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT. AND AS PEOPLE BEGAN TO TAKE A GREATER INTEREST IN
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ISSUES, ACTIVISTS BEGAN TO CHALLENGE MANY
OF THE TRADITIONAL
PRACTICES IN THE PUBLIC FORESTS.
>> WALLY: WOOD PRODUCTION INDUSTRY CONCENTRATED ON BIG,
OLD-GROWTH TREES AND A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MONEY WAS MADE, OF
COURSE, OUT OF HARVESTING THOSE OLD-GROWTH TREES. BY THE 1960S
AND '70S, THE OLD-GROWTH TREES, THESE OLDER YELLOW PARK TREES,
WERE BECOMING RARER AND RARER. THERE WAS SUCH A CONCERN ABOUT
OVER-CUTTING OF FORESTS GLOBALLY AS WELL AS IN ARIZONA THAT A
LOT OF ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVIST GROUPS STARTED WORKING TO TRY TO
ELIMINATE THE WOOD PRODUCTS INDUSTRY, ESPECIALLY THAT SECTION
THAT USED THE LARGE OLD TREES.
>> SANDY BAHR: WHEN THE SIERRA CLUB IN PARTICULAR AND ENVIRONMENTALISTS
REALLY ENGAGED IN FOREST PLANNING ACTIVITIES, LOOKING AT TIMBER
SALES, REALLY STARTED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE 1980S AND OVER TIME
THE INVOLVEMENT HAS INCREASED. WE HAVE 5% OR LESS OF OUR OLD GROWTH
FORESTS LEFT IN THE SOUTHWEST. SO IF IT'S GOING TO INVOLVE OLD
GROWTH LOGGING, YOU CAN BET PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTED
AND VERY CONCERNED.
>> BRUCE GRECO: WHEN WE GOT INTO THE MID-'80S, A LOT OF
LITIGATION, LAWSUITS, OTHER REASONS THAT THE TIMBER INDUSTRY BASICALLY
WENT AWAY. BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE THE TIMBER INDUSTRY AVAILABLE
OR THE TOOLS AVAILABLE TO HARVEST THE TIMBER AND TO THIN THESE
STANDS OUT, WE'VE HAD TO REALLY CHANGE THE POLICY AND THE TACTICS,
IF YOU WILL, AT HOW WE MANAGE A FOREST AND HOW WE PROTECT IT FROM
WILDFIRE.
>> REPORTER: THE DEBATE CONTINUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
COMMERCIAL LOGGING CAN PLAY A ROLE IN SOUND FOREST MANAGEMENT.
BUT IN THE EARLY DAYS OF THE 21ST CENTURY, MOST AGREE THAT ARIZONA'S
PINE FORESTS WILL REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE HELP IF THEY ARE TO BE
RESTORED TO HEALTH AND CATASTROPHIC FIRE IS TO BE AVOIDED.
>> SANDY: WHAT I HOPE HAPPENS IS YOU WILL SEE A MORE THINNED
FOREST AROUND COMMUNITIES WHERE THEY WILL HAVE TAKEN OUT THE SMALLER
TREES, DONE SOME PRESCRIBED BURNING. BEYOND THAT, YOU KNOW, WHAT
WE WANT IS FOR A MORE NATURAL SYSTEM TO COME BACK.
>> BRUCE GRECO: THE CHALLENGE THAT WE HAVE IS TO PHYSICALLY
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FUEL THAT'S GOING TO CONTRIBUTE TO WILDFIRE,
DEFEATING THAT MONSTER. WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT IN THAT PROCESS
THE PUBLICS INVOLVE ALL INTERESTS, ALL AGENCIES TOGETHER TO MOVE
FORWARD. BUT WE HAVE TO MOVE VERY QUICKLY TO DO THAT. OUR LANDSCAPE
IN ARIZONA IS AT EXTREME RISK.
>> WALLY: WE BASICALLY HAVE ROOM ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
THROUGH FLAGSTAFF FOR ABOUT FOUR RODEO-CHEDISKI-SIZE BURNS TO
OCCUR BEFORE IT'S ALL GONE. IN PRACTICAL HUMAN TERMS, IT'S A PERMANENT
LOSS. SO WE OWE IT NOT JUST TO OURSELVES BUT ALSO TO THE REST
OF THE NATURE TO RESTORE FOREST HEALTH. JOINING ME TO TALK ABOUT
THE ROLE OF FIRE IN FOREST HEALTH IS FIRE EXPERT AND ASU PROFESSOR
STEPHEN PYNE. THANKS FOR JOINING US.
>>STEPHEN PYNE: MY PLEASURE.
>> MICHAEL: I'M NOT SURE WHETHER TO REFER TO THE RELATIONSHIP
AS SCHIZOPHRENIC, BUT HISTORICALLY SCHIZOPHRENIC BUT OUR RELATIONSHIP
WITH WILDFIRES ARE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN?
>>STEPHEN: I DON'T THINK OUR RELATIONSHIP TO WILDFIRE HAS
BEEN SCHIZOPHRENIC, WE HAVE ALWAYS DISTRUSTED WILDFIRE SIMPLY
BECAUSE IT WAS OUT OF OUR CONTROL. WE HAVE A MUCH DEEPER RELATIONSHIP
WITH FIRE AND THE USE OF FIRE. ONE COULD MAKE A CASE AGAINST THE
DEFINING TRADE OF OUR SPECIES. OTHER ANIMALS KNOCK OVER TREES
AND DIG HOLES IN THE GROUND, HUNT. WE DO FIRE. THAT'S HOW WE DEFINED
OURSELVES.
>> MICHAEL: THE SCHIZOPHRENIA I WAS REFERRING TO WAS OUR
ATTITUDE ON WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS GOOD, BAD, COMPLETELY TAMED
DOWN, SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO GO, YOU KNOW?
>> STEPHEN: NO, NO. THAT'S AN EXCELLENT POINT. FOR THE
MOST PART WE HAVE TRIED TO CONTROL FIRE AND USE IT TO OUR ADVANTAGE.
AND THIS IS MEANT CEILING IT IN HEARTHS AND FURNACES BUT ALSO
IN THE LANDSCAPE. THAT HAS ONLY CHANGED WITH THE INDUSTRIALIZATION.
ONE CAN SEE GLOBALLY THAT THE WORLD IS DIVIDING INTO TWO LARGE
COMBUSTION REGIMES. ONE OF WHICH THAT BURNS LIVING BIO MASS AND
THE OTHER WHICH ONLY BURNS FOSSIL BIO MASS. THEY TEND NOT TO OVERLAP.
ONE WIPES OUT THE OTHER. THAT EVEN IN THE U.S. IS THE STORY OF
FIRE. IT'S THE REMOVE OF FIRE FROM THE LANDSCAPE. REMOVE REMOVAL
FROM ACTIVE CULTURAL LANDS. NOW IT ONLY EXISTS IN ENCLAVES, SOME
OF THEM QUITE LARGE, OF PUBLIC LANDS. IT'S THE CREATING OF LICK
LANDS AND THE DESIRE THAT CREATED THE DILEMMA.
>> MICHAEL: YOU REFERRED TO FIRE SUPPRESSION IN THIS SCENARIO
AS AN EASY VILLAIN. WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY THAT?
>>STEPHEN: EARLIER IN THE 20TH CENTURY IT WAS SIMPLE FOR
THE NEW AGENCIES WITH THE PUBLIC LAND, PARTICULARLY THE FOREST
SERVICE TO DEMONIZE FIRE AND THEN WE'LL ATTACK FIRE. BUT IN MORE
RECENT DECADES WE HAVE SEEN FIRE SUPPRESSION HAS BECOME EQUALLY
DEMONIZED, SO THAT ALL OF PROBLEM ARE THE RESULT OF HAVING SUPPRESSED
FIRE OR TRYING TO SUPPRESS FIRE. THE FIRE SUPPRESSION THE ERA
OF HIGH INTENSITY FIRE SUPPRESSION LASTED 35-45 YEARS DEPENDING
ON WHICH FEDERAL AGENCY YOU LOOK AT. SOME OF THE AGENCIES HAVE
HAD A LONGER PERIOD BEYOND THAT ERA THAN THEY HAD DURING THE ERA.
SO IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO SAY THAT FIRE SUPPRESSION EITHER CAUSED
IT BY ITSELF WHICH IT DID NOT, GRAZING AND LOTS OF OTHER THINGS
WERE INVOLVED AND IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO SAY ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS
REPLACE THE POLICY. WE HAVE HAD THE POLICY REPLACES. WE HAVE HAD
ARGUMENTS FOR A MORE PLURALISTIC APPROACH TO FIRE. WHERE ARE THE
RESULTS? WHY HAVEN'T WE SEEN MORE HAPPEN ON THE GROUND? MAYBE
THE POLICY IS BY ITSELF INCOMPLETE AND IT MAY BE THAT IT'S NOT
ALL TOGETHER A POLICY PROBLEM.
>> MICHAEL: WHAT ABOUT SANDY BAHR'S COMMENT ON TAPE LOOSELY
SAY LET'S DO THE INTERFACE THING AND LET'S LET NATURE CORRECT
THE SITUATION?
>> STEPHEN: TWO PARTS TO THAT. ONE IS THERE'S STILL A LOT
TO FIGHT OVER ON THE INTERFACE ISSUE. IT'S NOT JUST ENOUGH TO
PROTECT INDIVIDUAL HOUSES. YOU HAVE TO FIND A DEFENSIBLE SPACE
FOR COMMUNITIES. ONE OF THE SIMPLE THINGS GOVERNMENT COULD DO
IS FORCE PEOPLE TO CLEAN UP LOTS ABSENTEE LAND OWNERS JUST AS
YOU HAVE TO CLEAN UP VACANT LOTS IN THE CITY. THAT REMOVES A HUGE
HAZARD AND THEN THE ISSUE BECOMES HOW FAR DO YOU EXTEND THE ZONE
OF PROTECTION. YOU WON'T CONSTRUCT A FIRE MOTE. WHAT YOU NEED
IS A FAIR GREENBELT. YOU NEED AN EXTENSIVE AREA PROBABLY ANYTHING
LESS THAN A MILE WON'T DO MUCH GOOD. PROBABLY GOING TO NEED A
MILE AND A HALF OR MORE? WHY? BECAUSE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS EMBERS
WILL START FALLING. YOU'LL GET SHOWERS OF SPARKS COMING DOWN WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE FLAMING IN FRONT. THAT'S WHAT WILL TAKE.
>> MICHAEL: IF I RECALL CORRECTLY THEY HAVE DONE SOME OF
THEM IN THE MOUNT LEMMON ASPEN FIRE AREA AND SOME OF THE EMBERS
WERE THROWN THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE APPROACHING A MILE. OF COURSE
THE HEAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRES IS JUST --
>> STEPHEN: RIGHT. THOSE DON'T HAVE TO BE TAKEN OVER. THEY
HAVE CAN BE TASTEFULLY LANDSCAPE AND YOU HAVE A SERIES OF THINNING.
THAT'S THAT PROBLEM. BUT HOW FAR THEN DO YOU PROJECT THAT OR DO
YOU JUST TURN IT OVER TO NATURE? WE HAVE A LOT OF EXPERIENCE FROM
THE EARLY YEARS OF LETTING FIRES BURN BECAUSE YOU COULDN'T ATTACK
THEM OR BECAUSE IT SEEMED TO EXPENSIVE. WHAT YOU LEARNED IF YOU
LEAVE FIRES TO LOITER IN THE LANDSCAPE THEY GO LOOKING FOR TROUBLE.
DURING DRY YEARS THEY STAY OUT THERE FOR MONTHS. SOONER OR LATER
THE COMBINATION OF CIRCUMSTANCES WILL COME TOGETHER AND IT'S GOING
TO BLOW UP. THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF SMOKE AND ESCAPE FIRES.
YOU'LL HAVE LAWSUITS, HUGE EXPENSES.
>> MICHAEL: YOU'RE LATEST BOOK IS "SMOKE CHASING".
ARE WE SUCCESSFULLY CHASING IT? HAVE WE CAUGHT IT?
>> STEPHEN: WE'RE ADEPT TO CHASING IT. YOU CAN CATCH IT
IN THE WAY YOU CAN CATCH A TIGER BY THE TAIL. THE QUESTION IS
HOW DO WE COPE WITH IT NOW? THE FIRE PROBLEMS THAT WE HAVE ARE
THE RESULT OF EVERYTHING WE HAVE DONE AND EVERYTHING WE HAVEN'T
DONE FOR OVER A CENTURY. THERE'S NO SINGLE THING YOU ARE GOING
TO DO GET IT BUT THERE ARE THINGS WE CAN DO.
>> MICHAEL: PROFESSOR PYNE STAY THERE WE'LL BE BACK IN
A COUPLE OF MINUTES.
>> MICHAEL: WE CONTINUE OUR COVERAGE OF FOREST HEALTH WITH
A REPORT WHAT THE FUTURE MAY HOLD FOR THESE TROUBLED LANDS AND
WHAT THE LANDSCAPE MIGHT LOOK LIKE WHEN THE BARK BEETLES HAVE
HAD THEIR FILL.
>> REPORTER: AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE, MILLIONS OF TREES
THAT HAVE BEEN KILLED BY THE BARK BEETLE INFESTATION. BEFORE IT'S
OVER, MOST OF THE PINES IN PLACES LIKE THE PRESCOTT BASIN COULD
DIE, AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS DEVASTATION WILL TRANSFORM ARIZONA'S
FORESTS FOREVER.
>> STEVE SAMS: UNFORTUNATELY, WITH AN EPIDEMIC OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT LANDSCAPE SCALE CHANGE ON THE FOREST.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE PREDOMINANT VEGETATION
AND ALL THE THINGS THAT THAT CREATES ONCE THE UPPER CANOPY IS
DEAD AND EITHER FALLS DOWN OR IS CONSUMED BY FIRE.
>> REPORTER: THE ARIZONA FORESTS TO WHICH WE ARE ACCUSTOMED
ARE UNIQUE TO THE LAST CENTURY. BEFORE HUMAN ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED
THE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE OF NATURAL WILDFIRES, THESE AREAS HAD
FAR FEWER TREES, MAKING THEM LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO DROUGHT AND INSECT
DAMAGE. BUT IN THE FORESTS OF TODAY, THOSE IMPACTS HAVE RESULTED
IN THE DEATHS OF MILLIONS OF TREES, ALTERING THE FOREST ENVIRONMENT
IN WAYS THAT ARE UNPRECEDENTED IN THE STATE'S RECORDED HISTORY.
SIMILAR CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED, HOWEVER, ON DIFFERENT SCALES AND
AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND PLACES THROUGHOUT THE PAST, ALLOWING RESOURCE
MANAGERS TO ANTICIPATE WHAT WILL COME NEXT.
>> STEVE: WHAT WILL HAPPEN IS THAT AS THE TREES DIE, THEN
THE NATURAL PROCESS IS THAT FIRST WE'LL HAVE THE FORBES AND GRASSES
THAT WILL COME IN, AND THEN BRUSH SPECIES, OR IN SOME CASES WHERE
THERE'S BRUSH SPECIES PRESENT IN THE UNDERSTORY NOW, THEY WILL
BYPASS THAT FIRST STAGE AND GO RIGHT TO BRUSH AND THOSE WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT PLANTS. THE SHADING WILL BE DIFFERENT, MOISTURE REGIME
WILL BE DIFFERENT. WE'LL SEE WITH A REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF
PLANTS ON THE LANDSCAPE, ONE OF THE THINGS WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE
IS ACTUALLY AN INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF WATT INNER OUR SPRINGS
AND RIPARIAN AREAS BECAUSE THERE'S FEWER PLANTS OR TREES TO TAKE
THAT WATER OUT OF THE SOIL.
>> REPORTER: AS THE FOREST EVOLVES INTO A NEW HABITAT TYPE,
THERE ALSO WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WILDLIFE.
>> STAN CUNNINGHAM: THIS IS GOING TO BE A SLOW CHANGE.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF DEAD TREES COULD PROVIDE SOME EXCELLENT BE
A AT THAT TIME FOR SOME SPECIES, WOODPECKERS ARE GOING TO LOVE
IT. I SUSPECT THE MULE DEER WILL DO REAL WELL AS IT OPENS UP A
LITTLE BIT AND WE HAVE A LOT MORE BRUSH. I WOULD ANTICIPATE A
FEW MORE ELK DOWN HERE IF NOT MORE. TURKEYS WILL DO WELL WITH
THAT IF THEY HAVE A PLACE TO ROOST. I WOULD ANTICIPATE RIPARIAN
AREAS FLOURISHING AND ACTUALLY DOING BETTER. THAT, OF COURSE,
IS SO IMPORTANT TO SOME OF OUR BREEDING BIRD SPECIES.
>> REPORTER: A GLIMPSE OF THIS FUTURE LANDSCAPE CAN BE
FOUND ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF PRESCOTT IN PART FOREST THAT BURNED
TWO DECADES AGO.
>> STEVE: THIS IS AN AREA REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT WE CAN
EXPECT SIMILAR TO THE PRESCOTT NATIONAL FOREST TO LOOK LIKE AFTER
THE BEETLE EPIDEMIC RUNS ITS COURSE AND WE LOSE THE PONDEROSA
PINE OVERSTORY.
>> REPORTER: A NUMBER OF BRUSH SPECIES WILL DOMINATE THE
GROUND. AND ALTHOUGH THE PINES WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, OTHER
TREES WILL TAKE THEIR PLACE.
>> STEVE: AS WE MOVE INTO SITES THAT ARE COVERED WITH TALLER
VEGETATION, LIKE THE JUNIPERS, THE PONDEROSA PINE THAT ARE COMING
BACK IN AND THE OAK SPECIES, YOU START TO GET THAT ARRANGEMENT
OF VEGETATION THAT FORMS THE HABITAT FOR A MULTITUDE OF SPECIES.
>> REPORTER: BECAUSE OF THE VAST AMOUNTS OF DEAD VEGETATION
IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THE BARK BEETLES, WILDFIRE POSES AN ESPECIALLY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
>>STEVE: SHORT-TERM, OUR BIGGEST CONCERN IS GOING TO BE
THE FIRE THREAT. ONCE THESE TREES DIE, THE AMOUNT OF FUEL LOADING
THAT IS GOING TO OCCUR ON THE FOREST IS GOING TO BE TREMENDOUS.
WE'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT 60 TO 80 TONS OF FUEL PER ACRE AND
WHEN A FIRE OCCURS IN THAT, IT WILL BURN WITH INCREDIBLE INTENSITY.
>> STAN: WHAT MAY DO WELL WHEN THERE'S DEAD TIMBER STANDING
MAY NOT DO AS WELL AFTER A FOREST FIRE COMES THROUGH AND REMOVES
THAT FUEL. BLACK BEARS DON'T DO WELL. SOME SPECIES WILL DO REAL
WELL, LIZARDS WILL DO REAL WELL. SO IF YOU HAVE A CATASTROPHIC
BURN, COULD BE A WHOLE NEW SHOW.
>> REPORTER: CATASTROPHIC WILDFIRES LEAVE IN THEIR WAKE
LARGE TRACTS OF LAND THAT ARE RESISTANT TO RESTORATION EFFORTS.
DRAMATIC EVIDENCE OF THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
OF FLAGSTAFF.
>> WALLY COVINGTON: WE DON'T KNOW ENTIRELY WHAT'S GOING
TO HAPPEN, BUT IN THE SEVERELY BURNED AREAS, MANY OF THEM, THOUSANDS
OF YEARS OF SOIL BUILDING ARE WIPED OUT IN A MATTER OF MONTHS
AND WE SEE THIS HERE IN FLAGSTAFF, A CLASSIC EXAMPLE IS THE MOUNT
HE WILL DENY BURN THAT OCCURRED IN 1977. SEVERE EROSION OCCURRED
ON THAT SITE. IT WAS REPLANTED REPEATEDLY WITH TREES, BUT MOST
OF THAT AREA IS IN SHRUB LANDS AND IT'S NOT GOING TO COME BACK
TO FOREST IN MANY GENERATIONS OF HUMAN BEINGS.
>> REPORTER: THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF SUCH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS
OF FOREST IS AN ALARMING PROSPECT, AND YET BECAUSE IT IS THE ESSENCE
OF NATURE TO CHANGE, LIFE CONTINUES, EVEN IN PLACES VISITED BY
SUCH ENORMOUS UPHEAVAL.
>> STAN: WE'LL HAVE LESS PONDEROSA PINE. WE'LL HAVE MORE
BRUSH, MORE CHAPARRAL VEGETATION. WE'RE GOING TO SEE MORE DIVERSITY
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CANOPY OF THE FOREST, AND THAT WILL RESULT
IN THE FOREST NOT ONLY LOOKING DIFFERENT BUT FUNCTIONING IN A
DIFFERENT WAY IN TERMS OF THE THINGS IT PROVIDES.
IT'S GOING TO LOOK DIFFERENT THAN IT DOES TODAY, BUT IT'S STILL
GOING TO BE AN ATTRACTIVE SETTING.
>> MICHAEL: BACK WITH US IS ASU PROFESSOR STEPHEN PYNE.
DO WE REALLY KNOW WHAT WE NEED TO DO TO RESTORE FOREST HEALTH?
>> STEPHEN: THERE ARE TWO ISSUES HERE, ONE IS FIRE AND
ONE IS FOREST HEALTH. THEY'RE NOT IDENTICAL, BUT THEY CLEARLY
CONVERGE. I THINK WE KNOW QUITE A LOT ABOUT WHAT WE CAN DO FOR
FIRE. THERE WERE CERTAIN OPTIONS YOU'VE GOT, JUST GENERAL OPTIONS
IN THE FIRE-PRONE PUBLIC LAND. I MEAN, YOU CAN LEAVE IT ALONE,
LEAVE IT TO NATURE. YOU CAN TRY TO SUPPRESS IT. YOU CAN TRY TO
DO THE BURNING YOURSELF. OR YOU CAN TRY TO CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE
SO THAT WHATEVER KIND OF FIRE OCCURS, IT BURNS WITH CERTAIN PROPERTIES.
I THINK WITH A WE'VE LEARNED IS NONE OF THOSE WORKS BY ITSELF,
THAT YOU HAVE TO HAVE MIXTURES OF THOSE ADJUSTED TO PARTICULAR
SITES. SO THAT WHAT WORKS AT 3,000 FEET DOESN'T WORK NECESSARILY
AT 8,000. WHAT WORKS ON A SOUTH FACING SLOPE MAY BE DIFFERENT
FROM A NORTH FACING SLOPE. THOSE ARE REALLY THE APPEAR SHUNS YOU'VE
GOT AND SOME KIND OF COCKTAIL OF THOSE TREATMENTS.
>> MICHAEL: THERE'S BEEN THE BIG EMPHASIS, UNDERSTANDABLY,
ON THE SO-CALLED URBAN INTERFACE, THE AREA WHERE THE FOREST --
WELL, DEVELOPMENT HAS CRASHED INTO THE FOREST, REALLY. IS THAT
AN APPROPRIATE FOCUS FOR YOUR COCKTAIL?
>> STEPHEN: YES, IT IS, BUT IT REQUIRES ITS OWN MIXTURES.
SO I THINK IN THAT YOU'RE NOT GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM IT AND YOU'RE
GOING TO HAVE A HARD TIME DOING MUCH BURNING. SO YOU'RE LEFT WITH
LANDSCAPING AND THE SCALE OF THE LANDSCAPING WILL VARY ON THE
CONTEXT AND YOU'RE LEFT WITH SUPPRESSION. I MEAN, YOU'RE NOT GOING
TO ALLOW WILDFIRES TO RAMPAGE THROUGH. IF YOU MOVE AWAY FROM THAT
ZONE, THEN YOU MAY BE ALLOWED TO LET -- GIVE FIRE SOME EXTRA SPACE,
NOT TRY TO CROWD IT SO MUCH. YOU MAY BE ABLE TO DO SOME BURNING.
WE KNOW, THOUGH, THAT WE CAN'T SUPPRESS IT, WE CAN'T KEEP FIRE
OUT. I MEAN, IT'S JUST -- IT'S LIKE A DECLARATION OF MARTIAL LAW
WHEN THERE'S AN EMERGENCY AND IN A SENSE YOU SEND IN THE TROOPS,
YOU QUELL IT, YOU TRY TO PUT IT DOWN BUT YOU CAN'T GOVERN A LANDSCAPE
THAT WAY. IT DOESN'T WORK OVER THE LONG TERM. AND THE FIRE AGENCIES
WILL TELL YOU THAT. WE KNOW THAT. BUT WE'VE ALSO LEARNED THAT
YOU CAN'T SIMPLY REVERSE THE PROCESS, AND SENSE PART OF THE PROBLEM
WAS TAKING FIRE OUT, WE ONLY PUT IT BACK IN, IT ALL GOES AWAY,
SOME KIND OF ECOLOGICAL PIXIE DUST AND WE SPRINKLE IT OUT AND
ALL THE BAD STUFF DISSOLVES AND WE HAVE A GOOD FOREST. WE HAVE
LEARNED THOSE FIRES DON'T BURN AS THEY WOULD HAVE BURNED 100 OR
200 YEARS AGO, THAT IT'S LIKE REINTRODUCING A LOST SPECIES. YOU
HAVE TO CREATE A HABITAT FOR IT.
>> MICHAEL: AND DO YOU CREATE THAT HABITAT WITH A MIXTURE
OF CONTROLLED BURN AND FOREST THINNING?
>> STEPHEN: YEAH, I THINK -- I MEAN, THOSE ARE THE OPTIONS.
IF NOT FOREST THINNING, LET'S -- SOME KIND OF LANDSCAPE CULTIVATION.
IT MAY BE BY GRAZING. IT MAY BE BY CRUSHING BRUSH IN PATCHES.
IT MAY BE BY THINNING OUT OVERGROWN FORESTS, MAYBE BY CREATING
GAP CANOPIES. IT MAY BE MY RAKING NEEDLES AROUND A HOUSE. THERE
ARE LOTS OF WAYS TO DO THIS. IT MAY BE GETTING GRASS BACK IN.
I MEAN, IN SOME WAYS IN THE SOUTHWEST, OUR WHOLE OBSESSION WITH
TREES IS MISPLACED. WHAT'S GONE IS THE GRASS. THAT'S WHAT ALLOWED
THE OLD FIRE REGIME. SO MAYBE INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT FOREST
THINNING WE'RE TALKING ABOUT GRASS RESTORATION. THERE ARE CERTAIN
GRASSES YOU HAVE TO KEEP OUT. SO IT GETS COMPLICATED, BUT THOSE
MIXTURES OF THINGS ON A SITE SPECIFIC BASIS, ANYTHING ELSE IS
JUST THEOLOGY.
>> MICHAEL: IS -- WHY IS THIS -- SEEMINGLY -- ONE OF LIFE'S
GREAT MYSTERIES? I WOULDN'T THINK IT WOULD BE. I MEAN, YOU'RE
DEALING WITH FAIRLY NATURAL STUFF HERE.
>> STEPHEN: WELL, I THINK PART OF IT IS THAT WE HAVE NOT
BEEN SERIOUS ABOUT FIRE AS A FIRE PROBLEM, AND WE SEE THIS EVEN
NOW. WE'VE BEEN IN AN INTERESTING ERA FROM ALMOST A DECADE. WE
HAVE SORT OF CELEBRITY FIRE SEASONS BUT THEY HAVE BEEN COMING
EVERY TWO YEARS, SORT OF DIABOLICALLY CUNNING. FIRE HAS BEEN POLITICIZED.
SO IT'S GOTTEN ON THE POLITICAL AGENDA, BUT PEOPLE AREN'T SOLVING
IT AS FIRE. THEY WANT TO USE IT FOR SOME OTHER PURPOSE. SO EVERYBODY'S
STANDING WITH A BIG FIRE BEHIND THEM, BUT THEY'RE TALKING OUT.
THEY WANT TO USE IT TO ENFORCE SOME ENVIRONMENTAL MESSAGE. OR
THEY WANT TO USE THIS SOMEHOW, WE'LL REINTRODUCE LOGGING OR REVIVAL
OF COMMUNITIES. OR WE'LL DO SOME OTHER MESSAGE. INSTEAD IF THEY
WOULD TURN AROUND AND LOOK AT IT, TALK TO ONE ANOTHER ACROSS THE
FIRE THAT THEY SHARE, WE COULD BEGIN SOLVING THE FIRE COMPONENT.
BUT ANY TIME YOU WANT TO DEAL WITH SOMETHING WITH THE FIRE, YOU'RE
DEALING ABOUT -- YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT CHANGING THE LANDSCAPE,
AND THAT TRIGGERS ALL KIND OF OTHER CONCERNS.
>> MICHAEL: ALMOST OUT OF TIME.
>> STEPHEN: SORRY.
>> MICHAEL:, NO PROBLEM, BUT I -- LOOK AHEAD FOR ME FIVE
YEARS. ARE WE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE WIPED OUT BY WILDFIRES?
>> STEPHEN: WELL, IT DEPENDS ENTIRELY. ON A FIVE-YEAR SCALE,
IT DEPENDS ON THE DROUGHT. IF THE DROUGHT CONTINUES AT THE LEVEL
IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS THERE'S NO OTHER FUTURE BUT
FIRE AND BEETLES. THE FOREST WILL BE OBLITERATED AND WHAT WILL
COME BACK IS ANYBODY'S GUESS.
>> MICHAEL: SO WE PRAY FOR RAIN.
>> STEPHEN: YEP.
>> MICHAEL: PROFESSOR PYNE, THANKS VERY MUCH.
>>STEPHEN: MY PLEASURE.
>>MICHAEL: IF YOU WANT TO SEE WHAT IS COMING UP ON HORIZON
GO TO OUR WEB SITE. CLICK ON HORIZON AT THE LEFT OF YOUR SCREEN
AND FOLLOW THE LINKS. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US FOR THIS
SPECIAL EDITION OF HORIZON. I'M MICHAEL GRANT, HAVE A GREAT ONE.
GOOD NIGHT.
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