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Transcripts

October 13, 2003

Host: Cary Pfeffer (substituting for Michael Grant)
Topics:
· Democratic Presidential candidates debate
· A conversation with Arizona Senator Jon Kyl
In-Studio Guests:
Alfredo Gutierrez, former state senator;
Bob Robb, "Arizona Republic;"
Arizona Senator Jon Kyl

>> Cary: Tonight on "Horizon," were there winners or losers? We look back at the democratic presidential debate in Phoenix. And familiar faces. Republicans announce the state's leadership for the president's reelection campaign.

>>> And a conversation with Senator Jon Kyl. Good evening, I'm Cary Pfeffer.

>> Cary: In tonight for Michael Grant. There were nine and then there were ten and then there were nine again. Florida senator Bob Graham dropped out of the democratic presidential race, but retired General Wesley Clark joined the fray. The nine candidates campaigned and debated in Phoenix. Producer Larry Lemmons brings us a recap of the events.

>> Reporter: It's a lesson in politics for youngsters at Sutton school in Phoenix. For presidential candidate Joe Lieberman it's a chance to be an example to the kids.

>> Joe Liberman: I love those kids at the Sutton school. They're beautiful children. The teachers are so committed to helping them realize the American dream. I was touched by it because I'm the first in my family to go to college. I never would have had that opportunity if I didn't go to a great public school system. And I saw those kids, I said to them, hey, look where I am today. One of you can run for president one day because you're going to a great school.

>> Reporter: Heading into the Phoenix debate Lieberman has a strong following in Arizona, although a national poll of Democratic voters puts the Connecticut senator in third. Not to be outdone by his fellow New Englander, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry gets the firefighter endorsement and a ride in a truck.

>> John Kerry: Hey, guys.

>> Reporter: Nationally with Democrats, Kerry is third with Lieberman was has received important state endorsements.

>> John Kerry: We are here at the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency. And we're -- and the evidence -- the evidence of what I just said is all around us in this country. 3.1 million jobs lost for our fellow Americans. 2 million Americans have lost their health insurance. Countless numbers of seniors who have had their retirements blown away or frozen. People have had to defer their dreams and hopes. Children in schools who were promised something better being left behind by the millions. I say to you that when you add up the devastation in this country, the crushing of the dreams, the inattention of this administration, one thing is clear today to us and it will be clear in November of next year to all of the country, the one American who deserves to be laid off is George W. Bush. We're going to do it.

>> The next president of the United States, Howard Dean!

>> Reporter: Currently in second nationally, but the fund raising champion so far, former Vermont governor Howard Dean. Dean looks for votes at a pre-debate rally at Arizona State University. He's making regular visits to the state appealing to a grass roots following with Internet savvy.

>> Howard Dean: Politician come to college campuses all the time and say you are the foot soldiers of my campaign. You are not the foot soldiers of my campaign. You are driving our campaign. It is hour campaign that's going to take back the White House together all of us, the generation of 18 to 30-year-olds has made 25% of all the contributions to our campaign. This is a different kind of a campaign than the Washington-based campaigns. What good does do it to change presidents if you don't change America and this campaign is about changing America. We have -- we raised three times as much money any of the other democratic candidates last time. That is not the big deal. The big deal is that we have 200,000 people who gave us money and the average donation was $72. That's how you do campaign finance reform.

>> Reporter: Holding first nationally among Democrats the most recent arrival to the race, retired general Wesley Clark.

>> Wesley Clark: What I want to pass on to each and every one of you tonight from GERT and me is our determination, our willingness, our sustainment, our beliefs that all the great things in life that this country stands for we must protect by standing up for, by fighting for -- I'm talking about democracy, civil rights, patriotism, the ability to speak out and criticize our government and say it like it is, and we will do so.

>> Reporter: At the Phoenix debate, Clark's position at the top makes him fair game for the other candidates.

>> Joe Liberman: I must say that I've been very disappointed since Wes Clark came into this race about the various positions he has taken on the war against Saddam Hussein.

>> Reporter: Clark's strategy is to take the high road.

>> Wesley Clark: I would like to rebut this. I'm not going to attack a fellow Democrat because I think everything on this stage shares the same goal. I think it's embarrassing appear group of candidates up here are working on changing the leadership in this country and can't get their own story straight.

>> Reporter: Lieberman's reply comes later in the debate.

>> Joe Liberman: Very quickly, first thing I want to say, Wes Clark, welcome to the democratic presidential campaign.

>> Reporter: After the debate, the crush of the spin room allows the candidates to speak directly to the press.

>> Rev. Al Sharpton: When we see how people are treated at the Mexican border as opposed to people at the Canadian border, I think when we see the opportunities in business and in other things, to people that are Spanish speaking or Latino, it is different, and we as a party -- that's why I said today, we have got to stop thinking that the only way to win is going to the so-called sweet water on the other side. We have to start addressing voters, that if we address them, register them, that is our margin of victory.

>> Dick Gephardt: I think I have the best plan. I wrote it with the Hispanic caucus, Ed Pastor who is my friend and in charge of my campaign in this state, who contributed mightily to that bill. It's a good bill. It's something that I think America is ready to hear about which is called urged legalization.

>> John Edwards: We need immigration reform for those people living in this country who earned the right to be American citizens.

>> Carol Moseley Braun: We ought to have a national immigration policy that makes sense. We need to reengage with the Mexican leadership so we have -- not necessarily treaties but so we have a working arrangement with them so there is one set of standards we can begin to regulate the traffic back and forth.

>> Dennis Kucinich: How can we afford to continue to put the wealth of this nation and to sink it into Iraq for occupation? What are we paying -- two-thirds of that cost is for occupation. We have to bring our troops home.

>> Reporter: Outside the Orpheum Theater away from democratic campaign talk the other side is trying to take the spotlight. As reporters prepare to discuss the cacophony of political voices rising from Phoenix, it is clear Arizona has become a battleground in the 2004 election.

>> Cary Pfeffer: And here to talk about the campaign are a couple smart guys, former state senator Alfredo Gutierrez and former candidate for governor, and Arizona republic columnist Bob Robb. Thank you both for being here.

>> Bob Robb: Our pleasure.

>> Cary Pfeffer: Let's start with you Alfredo, any sense of this ended up changing things, adjusted things? You don't expect seismic changes from something like this, but any sense that that particular forum ended up adjusting anything.

>> Alfredo Gutierrez: Not really. I think things pretty much stayed the same. I think John Edwards had an opportunity to do a cameo that he took great advantage of. Reverend Sharpton continues to resuscitate himself, to redefine himself in a very positive fashion. Most people had expected that what would be an attack on general Clark, and indeed that occurred, and an attack on Governor Dean and indeed that occurred. So it really -- I think at the end of the day there were very few losers, if any, and the winner, if there was one, was general Clark simply was there was so -- because there was so much attention paid to him and he generally handled himself very well.

>> Cary Pfeffer: In that sort of situation the difficulty for the candidate is to sort of manage that correctly. For somebody like Howard Dean or somebody like general Clark they have to make sure they don't mistakes as opposed to making points, it seems like.

>> Alfredo Gutierrez: I think that's true. They've also got to show their supporters that they're capable in that context and I think they both did that. They weren't vicious attacks or horrible attacks. But frankly, the one sort of shining moment was governor -- excuse me -- was senator Edwards when he became incredibly Clinton-like --

>> Cary Pfeffer: Talking about his past and sort of where -- the question was, where did you -- you always talk about your humble roots, and that way you are sort of trying to distinguish yourself from, for example, senator Kerry, and he handled that --

>>Alfredo Gutierrez: He handled that beautifully but he had another great exchange when he got the question about healthcare, he rolled up his sleeves and he started asking the questioner questions himself and just sort of changed the context of this very formal, very -- it was -- it was a terrible format, really, but he just humanized it. It was a powerful moment.

>> Cary Pfeffer: And he is' got some progress to make. Bob Robb, let's talk a little about your take on this. You've got, as Alfredo mentioned, nine people up on stage. It's an unruly sort of circumstance in the first place. What's your sense of sort of the winners and losers out of that?

>> Bob Robb: I think it was impossible for anyone to win, given the format, the number of candidates and I don't think anyone did so badly to say they damaged themselves. However, I believe that the individual who did the most to advance his cause was Howard Dean. And the reason for that is that the defining issue in the democratic primary so far is the war on Iraq. He's made a deep emotional connection with democratic activists and liberal activists by his forthright opposition to it from the beginning. Post-war events are beginning to cause these people to feel validated in their feelings. So the energy is there and he was able to reinforce that sharp demarcation between himself and the other main contenders. The individual who had the most at stake was Joe Lieberman. He really -- for the rest of the candidates, winning Arizona would be a boost. For Joe Lieberman it's shaping up as a necessity because he's not evening expected to do well in Iowa or New Hampshire. He needs to win something in the February 3rd states before you get to the really big states. Arizona and Oklahoma are thought to be his best opportunities. And while I thought did he fine in the debate, he didn't seize the day. He didn't do anything to distinguish himself in a forum in which in all likelihood there were more Arizonans watching than in any other forum he is going to participate for the foreseeable future.

>> Cary Pfeffer: A window he sort of had to make the most of --

>> Alfredo Gutierrez: Frankly I would have declared him irrelevant before the debate, but I think in the debate he sort of stabbed himself again. The emotional issue driving this campaign to this moment, as Bob says, is the war, and this very, very, very strong feeling by Democrats that we were, at least fraudulently -- at least incompetently, if not fraudulently, dragged into this. That's what governor Dean has seized. It's Joe Lieberman's complete misunderstanding of where Democrats are that he proved once more that makes him increasingly relevant. He may indeed be able to win Arizona and Oklahoma and rise again but I suspect he's increasingly irrelevant.

>>Bob Robb: But Lieberman's position on the war has as consistent and pure as has Dean's and so I think -- as has John Edwards, who has not apologized and not tried to reshape his support for the war, and I think the guys that are in trouble on the war are actually the guys that are trying to occupy the middle ground, which is Kerry and Clark and Gephardt. All of whom had pro war things to say at one point in time and now are trying to recast that. So I think -- I think that Lieberman leads among the candidates on the values debate. That's where --

>> Alfredo Gutierrez: I think he's true -- those -- the three he mentioned are indeed in trouble but they're still in the battle. I don't think Joe Lieberman is. I think Lieberman was wrong then and is wrong now. Consistently wrong.

>> Cary Pfeffer: He gets credit for that perhaps. Of course, the Democrats aren't the only ones stoking the campaign fires. Increased presence of their opposition in the state has prompted the Republicans to mobilize forces.

>> Reporter: A day after the democratic debate in Phoenix, the Arizona Republican party you a nouns the Bush-Cheney Arizona leadership team. Leading the national campaign former Montana governor and recent RNC chairman Mark Rosco, United States Senators John Kyl and John McCain join the reelection team comprised of present and former state office holders.

>> John McCain: When the 8 and 9-year-old boys were released from prison in Baghdad, when the mass graves were uncovered, when the atrocities that were committed by his own sons, which are unimaginable, my friend, we freed the people of Iraq. It was the right thing to do. It was good for Iraq.

>> Reporter: After the announcement, "Horizon" spoke with senator Jon Kyl. Senator, we're talking to you the day after the democratic debate here in Phoenix. This particular debate they were attacking each other more so than they were actually attacking President Bush, but what were your thoughts about that?

>> Jon Kyl: They're trying to draw distinctions between them so that they'll get a little bit of an edge and maybe be the winner in the primary. But they also all appeal to their base by attacking President Bush, too. That's to be understood. I enjoy debates even among Democrats. I guess maybe especially among Democrats. But -- my reaction generally was that there wasn't a whole lot new. They all new exactly what the sound bites are they want to get out there and it doesn't matter what the question was -- Judy Woodruff said I've heard all your sound bites but now could you answer the questions. They went right back to their sound bites. They have a certain question message they want to convey. They're disciplined. They're on their message. I didn't hear a whole lot new.

>> Reporter: This morning in Arizona they launched the reelect Bush-Cheney campaign. You and Senator McCain are on the leadership on that. And it is unusual, isn't it, to begin so early in the campaign for Republicans?

>> Jon Kyl: It is, and frankly the reason we're doing that in Arizona is because of the early February primary for the democratic candidates. They're going to be out here. They're going to be on television. They had their debate last night. And the president obviously can't allow all of the charges to be leveled against him, the attacks that they'll make against him, without responding to that, and so his campaign in Arizona is going to have to be accelerated. He won't be here to the same extent those nine democratic hopefuls are, but still we'll have to be talking about his positive agenda. He probably won't have the same type of media they have but at least will be trying to answer their charges and put his agenda forward at the same time.

>> Reporter: You think the president will be making more appearances in Arizona considering?

>> Jon Kyl: There's a possibility for two reasons that he might make more appearances here than usual. First, because of the democratic candidates will have been here and secondly because Arizona is not a state that the president can take for granted. It is a Republican state, nevertheless, if he doesn't campaign here, if we don't do a good job for him, it is a state that could go the other way, and he knows that.

>> Reporter: In fact, governor Mark Rosco said as much this morning, as did Ed Gillespie earlier, thanks very competitive race generally around the country, but also in Arizona, as you said, you can't really take it for granted.

>> Jon Kyl: That's right. I mean, we have the top two state office holders are Democrats, granted virtually everything else is Republican but there's a lot of volatility here. There's so much in-migration from all over the country, primarily California, but really all over the country, it's a new population every few months, and so you can't sit on -- rest on your laurels if you are going to talk to all these new people, you have to be out there pretty much all the time and that's why I think you'll see the president's campaign really starting not long after the first of the year here in Arizona.

>> Reporter: The Democrats are making a lot of effort to get Hispanic voters to come onboard. Are the Republicans doing the same?

>> Jon Kyl: You bet and this president, George Bush, has a special talent, I think, for appealing to the Hispanic vote. Did he in Texas. Did he in his first election campaign for president. And I think he'll do even bet they are next time. People know his heart. I mean, the president wears his heart on his sleeve. You know exactly what he's thinking and why. He shows people he cares. That's important to people who are a minority and the Hispanics. They will listen to what he has to say, but they won't necessarily buy it. They want to know how much you care before they care how much you know applies here and he shows them that he cares. Then we have an agenda, he has an agenda that is focused on better education for kids, better security, doing better for business, for example, small business, there are a lot of Hispanic small business people, and that is the president's agenda. I think if the president can demonstrate first that he cares and secondly that he has a good agenda that will help all people but in particular the Hispanics, I think they will do -- the president will do very well with that devoted group.

>> Reporter: Bush's poll numbers have been dropping since September 11th. What do you think are his greatest challenges.

>> Jon Kyl: That's correct. Of course, they spiked way up, and now they're down in the more normal levels. The good news is that the slump for president usually comes in the third year and then they bounce back in the fourth year. That's when the president's slump has come. But if you look at Reagan and you look at Clinton -- dole was actually ahead of Clinton at this point. Reagan was behind. So the president's generally tend in their third year to decline in popularity and come back up after the other party has nominated its candidate. I think you'll see the president rebound. The economy will be a big factor, and it is now beginning to turn around. This last month for the first time --

>> Reporter: The unemployment figures --

>> Jon Kyl: Things are starting to look good and I think as people realize the economy really is bouncing back and we've got basically a full year for that to be demonstrated they'll feel much more confident about the future and that will help the president.

>> Reporter: What about Iraq?

>> Jon Kyl: Iraq and the war on terror generally, I think you put it all together, can be an up and down affair. The president warned of that right after September 11th, he said this won't be quick, it won't be cheap, it won't be easy, we have to have patience and have confidence. I think by and large the people do. Although, his opponents naturally are trying to raise all kinds of questions, I don't see that they have a lot of answers, but they're raising a lot of questions, and that will tend to cause some confusion in the electorate. If thing were to go badly, then that could hurt the president. If things continue to improve in Iraq and in the war on terror generally, I think that will help the president but those are very volatile issues and it's pretty hard a year away to predict what the situation will be a year from now.

>> Reporter: Thank you very much, senator.

>> Cary Pfeffer: And we're back live with Alfredo Gutierrez and Bob Robb. Let's start with you on this segment. It is telling that the Republican party has to be this visible and this organized this early.

>> Bob Robb: It is, but probably the most significant thing that happened was John McCain agreeing to lead the president's reelection efforts here in Arizona. One of the questions was whether McCain could be seduced back into this race if Bush's numbers continued to drop and whether he'd be an active supporter of the president. He answered that. I think -- I really think less strategic than it is attention envy that's going on. The Republicans statewide have been really petulant about the attention on the democratic side of the ticket. They tried to defund the election, which would be a sharp blow to we political journalists. Don't know what it means for the state but it's very good for political journalism. So I think it's less strategic than it's, hey, we're the majority party, let's pay attention to us.

>> Cary Pfeffer: That's right. Alfredo, what's your sense as far as where we're going? How vulnerable do you think the president is going to be in Arizona?

>> Alfredo Gutierrez: I think Senator Kyl, though in a very defensive fashion, had it correctly. If the economy continues to go downwards, the president is going to be in trouble. He happens to see that there is one indication of employment going upwards by a nudge and Republicans are having celebrations on it. If it indeed turns into a trend, if we turn this around, we've lost over 2 million jobs in the last couple of years, we turn that around, then indeed the president is going to be in a much stronger position. The situation in the war is something I don't believe is going to be helped between now and then. The question is whether the war itself is sufficient to defeat President Bush. I don't think it's going to get any better. It's just simply going to get worse. And at some point here it's going to get ugly. Now, it's predictably, so, I don't think anybody predicting otherwise, including the administration at this point, I think the days of playing top gun and landing on aircraft carriers and acting like Tom cruise are long gone and they wish they'd never done it, but those are the two questions on how vulnerable he is.

>> Cary Pfeffer: How do you think, Bob, especially the war issue, is going to play here? Whether you feel like there's a chance for progress there or not, what's your sense of that?

>> Bob Robb: My sense is that if reconstruction continues to go poorly and the American financial commitment continues to mount, it will be a serious negative for the president. He needs to stabilize the situation and he needs to show that there's an end to the American financial commitment or I think he's in trouble here and elsewhere. Otherwise, even a moderate economy, I think, puts Arizona in the fairly safe territory. He won the state by 6 percentage points, basically the registration advantage. In reality, if a Republican is in trouble in Arizona, a Republican is probably dead nationally.

>> Cary Pfeffer: And a lot of other places in very serious trouble. It's important to point out, when it's the president against question mark, the poll numbers are sort of all over the place until it's the president against a specific person, then we really sort of stabilize.

>> Bob Robb: Politics always comes down to compared to what, much to the relief of a lot of candidates.

>> Cary Pfeffer: What is being ignored, do you think? I'll leave that as the last question to both of you? We see the attention on a few different issues but what perhaps is not being paid attention to that should be or is going to end up playing a role, do you think?

>> Alfredo Gutierrez: I think what is going to be significant in the next few months is how Congress treats with immigration reform. There's all this talk about, we love Hispanics. But the Hispanic community has been mercurial in all kinds of fronts except one, and that's on immigration reform. George Bush won with substantial Hispanic support and the promise, implicit or otherwise -- it was explicit and implicit, in terms of his heart that Senator Kyl mentioned, there would be major immigration reform. September 11th change all that. In fact, it has gotten much, much worse. The question is what can Dee between now and then? If he doesn't make a significant change, he will have the great support of the Cuban community, the Cuban American community. The rest of the Hispanic community isn't going to be there.

>> Cary Pfeffer: Give you I don't think last --

>> Bob Robb: The sleeper issue in this campaign is straight. The Democratic Party is becoming increasingly protectionist, except for Joe Lieberman, the president continues to be a strong advocate of free trade and that may be the sleeper issue of the campaign.

>> Cary Pfeffer: Thanks to both of you. Here's what's coming up tomorrow night on "Horizon."

>> Arizona forests are in critical condition. Poor management practices and years of drought have made Arizona's forests more susceptible to fire and a little bug called the bark beetle. How did our forest get this bad? What needs to be done to save them. Find out in a special edition of "Horizon" Tuesday at 7:00.

>> Cary Pfeffer: Thanks very much for watching tonight's "Horizon." We will see you back here tomorrow night.

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