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December 26, 2003

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
· Journalist Roundtable: Year-End Review and Predictions
In-Studio Guests:
Howie Fischer, "Capitol Media Services;"
Mark Flatten, "East Valley Tribune;"
Doug MacEachern, "The Arizona Republic."

>> Michael Grant:
Good evening. Welcome to a special edition of "Horizon." This is our annual year-end prediction show. Our panel will try to predict what will happen in 2004. Among the things our panel will try to answer is, will President Bush be reelected. Will what will the makeup be of the Arizona legislature after the election. And will the Arizona Supreme Court rule in favor of gay marriage.

>>> Michael Grant:
Our fearless panel of predictors includes the semi-legendary Howie Fischer of "Capitol Media Services." Mark Flatten from the "East Valley Tribune" and last year's rookie, Doug MacEachern of "The Arizona Republic." Before the panel tries to guess what will happen in 2004, we need to so how well they did in predicting the events of 2003. Our producer has the scorecard. The prediction panel at a new look as two grizzled veterans, Howie Fischer and Mark Flatten were joined by Doug MacEachern. First question, who would win the Phoenix mayoral race in 2003.

>> Michael Grant:
Who will be next Phoenix mayor?

>> Doug MacEachern:
This time next year, Phil Gordon.

>> Mark Flatten: I think it's going to be very close, but I think Phil has got the edge at this point.

>> Mark Flatten:
Phil Gordon sounds bike a good pick to me, although I could say mayor Giuliano will pack up and move over to Phoenix and become mayor there.

>> Reporter:
On September 9th, Phil Gordon cruised to victory with 72% of the vote. They weren't so good when predicting what would happen when Corporation Commissioner Jim Irvin.

>> Howard Fischer:
Is I don't see him resigning. That's not in his interest.

>> Mark Flatten:
I don't see him quitting even if there is a criminal case brought. I don't see it playing through the court system by the end. That leaves the only viable option to be impeachment, and I don't see that happening.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think I predict impeachment.

>> Reporter:
On September 23rd, Jim Irvin resigned from the Arizona Corporation Commission.

>>> Reporter:
One of the things we always wonder about is how long will the Arizona legislature meet every year in its regular session.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's shift to the Arizona legislature. It convenes. How long until it shuts down?

>> Howard Fischer:
I am guessing we are talking 120 to 130 days from January 13th.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think a recipe is absolutely perfect for a record-setting session. 150 days, I don't think is out of the question.

>> Mark Flatten:
I'm going to come down in between Howie and Doug. I think it'll be a long one. I don't think it will be record-setting by any means. I think they'll have a budget, I don't know, probably in the 130 range.

>> Reporter:
The correct answer was 158 days. Our panel was asked to play the roll of football prognosticator. The biggest question was who would win the Fiesta Bowl game between Miami and underdog Ohio State.

>> Mark Flatten:
I'll say Ohio State, why not.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think Miami is going to be almost impossible to beat.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Miami, runaway

. >> Reporter:
Final score, Ohio State 31, Miami 24 in what turned out to be a game for the ages.

>>> Reporter:
and speaking of football, one of the things our panel has been dealing with for years is the new cardinals football stadium.

>> Michael Grant:
When does ground break on the cardinals football stadium?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I believe ground breaks next month in January.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay. Howie?

>> Howard Fischer:
March. I don't know, you know, who knows on these things?

>> Mark Flatten:
I'll split it and a February, why not.

>> Reporter:
The official ground-breaking occurred on April 12th. One thing that's always a lot of fun to predict is a long shot at a sure thing.

>> Mark Flatten:
The sure shot getting back to John McCain, much to the chagrin of the liberal northeastern media he will not leave the Republican party. The long shot, I guess is by this time next year there will be adequate signatures collected to put Clean Elections in on the ballot.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay, Doug?

>> Doug MacEachern:
My long shot is that I see Phoenix -- City of Phoenix getting some sort of funding package through the legislature for the Civic Plaza construction.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay. Sure shot?

>> Doug MacEachern:
A Democratic presidential hopeful on hosts Saturday night love.

>> Michael Grant:
Long shot?

>> Howard Fischer:
Despite the budget problems, job less benefit increases next year. Sure shot, Janet Napolitano will something red or purple.

>> Reporter:
There were a total of 10 questions asked last year. Some were two parter so it's possible to get a half point in the scoring. The final score shows Howie Fischer in third place with 4.5 points. Mark and Doug were actually tied going into the month of December, but thanks to Al Sharpton's appearance on Saturday night live, Doug wins with 6 points, finishing a half point ahead of mark.

>> Michael Grant:
Immortalizing you?

>> Doug MacEachern:
We talked.

>> Michael Grant:
That's remarkable. I forgot that you predicted that.

>> Mark Flatten:
I can't believe you are going to take that one.

>> Michael Grant:
That's incredible, Doug, first appearance, knocking the ball out of the park, congratulation.

>> Doug MacEachern:
To tell you the truth, I too have also forgot the minute I walked out. I fully expected I would get them all wrong.

>> Howard Fischer:
What's really fascinating is that the top scorer in this panel of experts is 60%. Going down from there me at 45, if, you know, it's a good thing we don't do this during pledge drive or we wouldn't have any money for this station.

>> Michael Grant:
Six out of ten is real good. You only got 4.5.

>>> Michael Grant:
Who will win the Democratic presidential primary in Arizona?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think in Arizona and the national primary, I think Howard Dean is impossible to stop at this point, recognizing that not a single ballot has been cast, he has got the momentum. Al Gore endorsed the guy and he is such a cautious man that he is not going to endorse anybody until he's shore it's a done deal?

>> Michael Grant:
Does Lieberman get any kickback

>> Mark Flatten:
He's in the middle of PAC. That's where he's going to finish.

>> Michael Grant: Howie, let's roll together both ultimate result and also Arizona primary.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think the Democrats have a wonderful death wish and I think they will do what mark said, which is on February 3rd, Arizonans are going to vote for him, and moderately low turnout. I think at that point, given the nature of the party, it'll have, you know, push through that and have enough delegates going into the convention. You know, the only thing that may change all of that is if Dean self-destructs on some issue, you know, the issue of the records, for example, why is he hiding 40% of his records?

>> Michael Grant:
His gubernatorial records?

>> Howard Fischer:
If that catches traction -- but this guy has been Teflon coated.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, you get to play cleanup.

>> Doug MacEachern:
It's entirely likely that it will be Dean in Arizona, and Dean in the primary, but in the general -- but -- and so that'll be my prediction. I do think, however, Joe Lieberman will have a better showing in Arizona than people anticipate.

>> Michael Grant:
Now, let's stick with you, Doug. Let's go to November, President Bush versus the Democratic nominee, who wins.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I really do think that at this point, and mind you, the recent developments in Iraq tend to give bush a pretty good bump right now. I think he carries it through. I think the sort of election era luck that followed him in 2000 continues. I think it'll be bush in '04.

>> Michael Grant:
No repeat of George Bush seen U.S., George Bush junior gets reelected?

>> Howard Fischer:
It use the line of what defeated his dad, it's the economy stupid. If the Dow stays above 10,000, people have jobs, they are happy, you know, Saddam is on trial somewhere by that point or whatever, people tend to stick with what they know and like. If the economy goes south, I mean, heck, Al Sharpton could be elected.

>> Michael Grant:
Was that a prediction for George Bush?

>> Howard Fischer:
That was a prediction for George Bush.

>> Mark Flatten:
Sort of semi quoting a lot of Democrats I've talked to, the problem with that the Democrats are going to have is that Howard Dean is getting so much strength in the quote, unquote, base of the party, which is basically the left end of the party, that's why some of the more moderate Democrats like Lieberman aren't getting the kind of big ticket traction. The problem with that is, I think Dean is going to come out very strong from the primary, but he's going to have the solid left locked up. He's not going to have a base in the middle which a Joe Lieberman could have tracked, and there is just running off a Cliff at this point. They've got a lot of very good middle of the road centrist candidates, but they are going nowhere, so I think with Dean's nomination, I don't think Bush will have too much trouble.

>> Michael Grant:
Not an unusual phenomena in presidential parties to veer to the right or the left of their party. It does seem it's been more pronounced in this cycle.

>> Mark Flatten:
The advantage that Bush has got from incumbency, there is the old saying you run from the extremes and govern from the middle. Bush will have had four years to govern from the quote, unquote, middle. I know a lot of folks don't see him as in the middle but he's a heck of a lot closer than where Dean is going to be coming out of the primary.

>> Howard Fischer:
Always the wild card becomes does he push some idiotic energy bill, a James Watts style, let's kill all of the trees because they are sucking up the oxygen, but if he doesn't make a misstep, that's the key.

>> Michael Grant:
2004 elections will any Arizona congressman decide not to run or be defeated?

>> Howard Fischer:
I think they all want to run. I don't see anyone stepping down because of health. I think Rick rim see is in trouble when you have somebody named Babbitt running against you. It's a darn good possibility that rim see goes home next November.

>> Michael Grant:
What do you think, mark? Trent Franks in any kind of difficult --

>> Mark Flatten:
The only vulnerable would be Renzi. I don't know that the name Babbitt carries the cachet up there that it used to. If I have to offer a prediction, I would say he gets reelected but it's another tough campaign.

>> Michael Grant:
What do you think, Doug?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think that Trent Franks would have some reelection difficulty if, say, Lisa Adkins went and tried it again and ran a better campaign. I think she could get traction there. But I don't see him as -- I don't see that scenario coming together, so I think it's probably going to be Franks. I do think, though, Renzi has got real difficulties. I think it was really evident last time around when a really damaged Democratic candidate, Cordova, very nearly beat him any way. If he has a solid candidate that doesn't have the baggage that Cordova had at the end of that race, I think he would take it and Babbitt would do that. That's going to happen, I think.

>> Michael Grant:
Couple of likely ballot propositions. Protect Arizona Now and Clean Elections repealed. Do you think they'll make it to the ballot? If so, what do you think the result will be?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think Protect Arizona Now. You might as well lock that one up now. I'm completely sure that's going to make it to the ballot. I'm rather sure that it's going to win by probably close to a two-thirds margin. I think you got a taste of it with the English only or the bilingual reform last time around.

>> Michael Grant:
Right.

>> Mark Flatten:
I don't see that thing losing. There is a lot of frustration out there with the costs both social and economic. So I think that'll pass rather handily. The Clean Elections is a little tougher. They had trouble getting off the ground and getting the organization going. I have no doubt that it will make it to the ballot. If I was to guess, I would say it's going to be a very close decision that could go either way, but I would probably say that the repeal will pass.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, Protect Arizona Now, Clean Elections?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think Protect Arizona Now will get on the ballot. For all of the reasons that is mark stated, I concur. I think -- I'm going to guess, however, that the Clean Elections is going to -- the repeal of Clean Elections is going to run into some problem, maybe in signature gathering, maybe in the courts afterwards. I don't think it's going to make the ballot.

>> Michael Grant:
Howie, what do you think?

>> Howard Fischer:
I think they'll both make the ballot. I think Protect Arizona Now does pass and one of those half point things that the producer likes doing, I think that within three weeks of that, somebody will be in court and asking for an injunction. Clean Elections makes the ballot. I think, however, the repeal fails. I think that there are enough people out there who believe that it has reduced the influence of money. I'm not saying it has. It's a perception, but I think there are enough people who think this isn't such a bad way to go. I think it makes the ballot but fails.

>> Michael Grant:
Perception is reality. Let's move to the legislature. First off, what do you think the split will be, senate and house when the dust settles in November?

>> Howard Fischer:
I think the senate is going to be much more Republican. I think it's going to be like 18-12. The Republicans have been struggling with the fact that right now they've basically got a 16-14 split. I think that some of the seats that went over to the Democrats are going to be problematic. I think the house, however, which already has 38 Republicans, 39, I guess, actually, and an independent, I think the Republicans may lose a couple of seats there. There is some up and coming Democrats, I'm guessing 36-24, Republican hands.

>> Michael Grant:
What do you think about the legislative split, senate and house?

>> Doug MacEachern:
It strikes me that I don't think that the senate number Naomi is going to change at all. I think they'll stay the same.

>> Michael Grant:
17-13? Do I have my math right?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I thought it was --

>> Michael Grant:
I think it's 17-13.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Whatever it is. It's going to stay that way. And --

>> Howard Fischer:
People are tuning into this, us as the experts here.

>> Michael Grant:
Sort of guessing here.

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think that the Republicans may lose a seat in the house, one seat.

>> Michael Grant:
All right.

>> Mark Flatten:
I don't see any big seat changes. I guess the Republicans will hold their own in the house or maybe pick up a seat, probably pick up a seat in the senate.

>> Michael Grant:
Big issue, early issue, we've got the opportunity to be really wrong on this really early.

>> Mark Flatten:
We won't pass that up, will we?

>> Michael Grant:
I don't know I say we, I don't do any predicting. What will happen with the transit sales tax plan and will it include light rail?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think it will include light rail, and I think that is going to be a huge anchor that will drag the whole thing down. I think the vote will fail.

>> Michael Grant:
Do you think it will make the may ballot or do they put it off to November?

>> Mark Flatten:
Well, as long as it won't count against me, I probably -- I don't want to wind up at 45%, you know.

>> Michael Grant:
We'll tell Claussen not to grade this.

>> Mark Flatten:
I think they are going to realize this isn't where we want it to be.

>> Michael Grant:
Sales tax plan and Light rail?

>> Howard Fischer:
You are backing into it with the issue of November versus may. Clearly the proponents don't want it on the November ballot. They would like it as a special election where only the proponents turn out. If it goes on the November ballot, it definitely goes down. I think there are enough people turning out on Protect Arizona Now and everything else. I think it will include the light rail. I think as mark says, that's going to be a real problem, because every time we say the word "trolly" on this show, people say why would we want to pay for a trolly. I think if somehow they can get it out to get it on the ballot in may, however, I think it'll pass by 53-47, but I'm not -- I don't think it will get on the May ballot.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think there will be tremendous pressure to keep it from going onto the November ballot for all of the reasons stated. I think there is so much going on and -- that it becomes so questionable that I think the proponents of the -- of it will pull out all of the stops to get ton the May ballot. So I think it'll happen there. Also, I don't share the pessimism regarding the light rail issue.

>> Mark Flatten:
We consider it optimism, actually.

>> Doug MacEachern:
Good point. I think, however, that the transportation issue was so important to voters that they'll see the plan, see the advantage to the plan for highway construction for --

>> Michael Grant:
Street improvements

>> Doug MacEachern:
Street improvements and all of that, that they'll bite the bullet.

>> Mark Flatten:
If you had that as a standalone, I think people will pass. I they don't mind paying for freeways and roads, but when you throw the albatross around the neck, they have no interest in mass transit.

>> Michael Grant:
I vote to see a roof on I-17. I can't wait for that one.

>>> Michael Grant:
All right, some legal subjects. Howie, how will the Arizona Supreme Court rule on gay marriage? And there is a subissue on this one, will the Arizona Supreme Court even take up the case?

>> Howard Fischer:
Well, assuming that between the time we're taping the show and this actually airs that the court doesn't deal with it, and I don't think it will, I think they will accept jurisdiction on it. I think the Court of Appeals ruling, as a public decision gives them heartburn because what the Court of Appeals said is it's the ability of men and women to pro create that makes -- that is why we should limit marriage between a man and a woman, and even if the Supreme Court believes that you should uphold marriage between only a man and a woman, I'm not sure that's the language they want in the state. I think the court will take it up. I think they may do a variation of what happened to Massachusetts or perhaps even Vermont where they will tell the legislature we're not going to say you have to have gay marriage, however, you cannot deny certain benefits, certain rights, to gay couples, and may direct them to do a variation of what happened in Vermont with some sort of domestic partner law.

>> Michael Grant:
A civil union type thing?

>> Howard Fischer:
Yes.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think about the issue before the Supreme Court?

>> Doug MacEachern: Because of the language of the state constitution, I couldn't -- assuming they take at some point -- I could not see the Arizona court doing a Massachusetts court style ruling. I don't think it will go that far, but I think there is a clear trend in state high courts to rule sympathetically for -- on this issue. I tend to think that if they do take it up, and I suspect they might, that they'll do something akin to Vermont as opposed to Massachusetts.

>> Michael Grant: Mark, are you going to make it three for three or do you disagree?

>> Mark Flatten:
Well, my guess would be that if they do take it up, and they may just decide, we don't want any part of that, because it's too volatile, my guess would be if they do take it up, they would come down and say, in essence, it's a legislative issue, that there is no constitutional right, but as Howie says, that doesn't mean you can discriminates it, just means in terms of state recognition of a gay marriage, it's a legislative issue and it's not our purview.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's move from five Justices at the State Capitol to nine Justices in Washington with the U.S. Supreme Court. They have taken up the now infamous "under God" pledge of allegiance decision by the Ninth Circuit? How do you think they will rule?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think they will rule that it's perfectly permissible. I think their language will be, probably for the majority, something along the lines of this is sort of a social/cultural/historical reference and it's acceptable. You will see concurring justices like Scalia say that the constitution guarantees freedom of religion, not freedom from religion.

>> Michael Grant:
One nation blank blank or not?

>> Doug MacEachern:
Under God. One nation under God. I think if you score these things as sports teams go that -- water under the bridge.

>> Mark Flatten:
I'm trying to throw you off so you don't beat me next year.

>> Doug MacEachern:
In terms of the culture wars, I think that the other side is due one from the Supreme Court, and I think they are going to make this one it. They will -- the high court will keep the "under God" reference.

>> Howard Fischer:
I think it's true. What the courts have already said, for example, the state motto of Arizona, is "ditat deus," which is "god enriches," but they've concluded that that's meaningless verbiage. It's like having "in God we trust" on the coins. I think the court will say that the kids stand there and they look at the wall and put their hands over their heart and it may or may not have any meaning. The one thing that will give them heartburn is it's children, but by virtue of the fact that nobody is forcing a child to recite the pledge of allegiance, I think they'll let it stay.

>> Michael Grant:
Given recent development, do you think we'll find Osama bin Laden in 2004?

>> Howard Fischer:
The difference is that Saddam was hungered down in a cave, not going anywhere. Whereas Osama is comfortable in the mountains where our troops who are used to fighting a more traditional style war tend not to go. I'd say probably not. I think Osama, assuming he is still alive and we don't know whether these videotapes have all been predone and held for broadcast as they say at a more convenient hour, but I think that he's going to be up in the mountains, unless somebody turns him in, we're going to sit around the table next year saying "where's Osama"?

>> Michael Grant:
Mark, do you think that we'll find Osama bin Laden and if we do will America be a safer place as a result?

>> Mark Flatten:
I think in 2004 that bin Laden will either be caught or dead. I mean, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that he's going to get bombed out of a bunker somewhere, so I guess you could theoretically say yeah, we caught him or pieces of him, any way. As to whether we'll be safer, I guess it depends on whether Howard Dean wins, we'll see.

>> Michael Grant:
Doug, what do you think about the Osama question?

>> Doug MacEachern:
I think he will be our ghost for a long, long time. That is a mighty big mountain range he is hiding in on the Pakistani border and I think he will find some holes to dig in that are deeper than the ones that Saddam was dug into.

>> Michael Grant:
We rarely do weather on this program. Let's do a weather question. Will the Phoenix high temperature exceed 120 next year?

>> Howard Fischer:
Depends on whether the City of Phoenix does that little scam they did several years ago and moved the thermometer. You may remember it goes back about 7, 8 years ago, after the temperature got up to 122, we moved the thermometer at the airport, which is why we haven't hit it yet. We got up to 117.

>> Michael Grant:
We moved it to the San Diego airport. Most people do not know that.

>> Howard Fischer:
That may be why. It was a funny sort of thing. They said this is more accurate over here and we don't like being on the news at 122. I think we are going to come just shy of 120. I don't think we'll hit it but we're clearly going to go higher than we did this year at 117. I warming trend is there. I think that the weather patterns are such. It'll feel like 122 but it'll only be 119.

>> Michael Grant:
That was a much more deliberative answer than I really expected Doug. Do you think we're going to get over 120 or not?

>> Doug MacEachern:
You know, Sean McLaughlin you're not. I don't think we're going to come close. I don't think it's going to come close.

>> Michael Grant:
What do you think?

>> Mark Flatten:
Leave it to Howie to develop conspiracy theories. Yeah, I think we'll hit 120. My concern is that we might add 120 Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit.

>> Michael Grant:
I think I've left enough time for long shot, sure thing. What's your long shot prediction?

>> Mark Flatten:
My long shot is that the new Bush administration will invite John McCain to be a member of the team. That would be my sure shot. My long shot would be that the Democrats will repeat their Kyl situation and not put anybody legitimate up against McCain.

>> Michael Grant: Doug, go ahead and roll them together. What's your long shot and sure thing?

>> Doug MacEachern:
In terms of my long shot, this is risking rolling a previous question into this question, but I'm going to do it any way, I think that Paul Babbitt wins in congressional district 1. I think that --

>> Michael Grant:
That's your long shot?

>> Doug MacEachern:
That's my long shot. My sure shot, Saddam Hussein is found guilty of crimes against humanity.

>> Mark Flatten:
Unless he is tried in Los Angeles.

>> Howard Fischer:
If the glove doesn't fit...

>> Howard Fischer:
Sure shot, Janet Napolitano will give a state of the state on a single subject this year which hasn't been done since Bruce Babbitt. Long shot, Jeff Groscost will come back to the legislature.

>> Michael Grant:
What will the Governor be wearing?

>> Howard Fischer:
Hey, I've given up on that. She's probably going to watch the show, go shopping just to mess with my head.

>> Michael Grant:
I feel good about this show. I have absolutely no idea why, but in any event, gentlemen, thank you very much. I'm sure that it will be a very accurate 2004. Thank you very much for joining us. We appreciate your attention. Have a great one. I'm Michael Grant. Good night.

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