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September 20, 2002

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
The Journalists Roundtable
In-Studio Guests:
Robbie Sherwood, The Arizona Republic;
Howard Fischer, Capitol Media Services;
Chip Scutari, The Arizona Republic

>> Michael: It's Friday, September 20th, 2002. In the headlines this week, there is a new development in the battle over gaming. Court of Appeals ruling this week could allow Governor Hull to sign new gaming compacts before November's election. The race to succeed Governor Hull heated up this week as Matt Salmon came under afire for his role as a lobbyist and is as the state legislature ponders way to deal with the budget crisis, Senate president Randall Gnant released a list of possible spending cut. I'm Michael Grant. This is the journalists roundtable. Joining me are Robbie Sherwood of "The Arizona Republic," how word Fischer from Capitol Media Services and Chip Scutari from "The Arizona Republic." On Thursday panel of the 9th circuit United States Court of Appeals overturned a previous ruling that prevented Governor Hull from signing new gaming compacts but, Howie, the court didn't reach the merits of the case.

>> Howard Fischer: I love it. They had some really important issues there in terms of did the legislature unconstitutionally delegate its authority to governor Symington. Was it constitutional to allow gaming on reservation and not off reservation? They found a little out here. When the track sued the state and got Robert Broomfield to rule last year that the law is unconstitutional, they only sued the state. What the 9th circuit said is you also should have sued the Indians because the Indians were parties to this. The Indians had the compacts, the Indians' compact entitles them to automatic renewal and by leaving them out, by denying them the chance to defend the law, you have essentially made the case null and void.

>>Robbie Sherwood: Does this open up a window for the governor to run in and sign a compact before their appeal and maybe undo some of the ballot propositions that are coming in November?

>> Howard Fischer: There is going to be a real race between now and November 4th. Under the federal procedures, Neil wake, who represents the tracks, has 14 days to ask the full 9th circuit to review. Assuming it will take two, three weeks after that for the court to decide, then they would issue what they call a mandate. At the point they issue a mandate, Governor Hull could say, hey, I negotiated a deal, I'm going to sign it. Neil wake has said he is going to ask for a stay at that point and take it to the U.S. Supreme Court. But it's far from certain whether the 9th circuit would give a stay on such a technical issue.

>> Michael: Howie, the other interesting point -- how long has this suit been going on, a year-and-a-half?

>> Howard Fischer: Yes.

>> Michael: After a year and a half, we don't know any more about the core questions today than we knew a year and a half ago.

>>Howard Fischer: And that's different than watching "Horizon," I guess? That really becomes the issue. This ruling essentially tells Neil wake, even if you lose all the way up, go back, start over again.

>> Michael: Duty whole thing over.

>> Howard Fischer: Let's assume the voters approve one, two or three of the measures. On a theoretical basis, if they approve props 200 or 202, which are Indian gaming initiatives, the new law takes effect, the tribes can get new compacts and they can go ahead. Even with 201 with the tracks they get Indian gaming but so duty tracks. But now you get into fascinating areas where wake is still going to relitigate the issue can you allow different forms of gaming on and off the reservation? That still is a ripe issue. You have the question if Governor Hull or her successor signs a new gaming compact, assuming all three fail, what happens if wake wins somewhere down the road in 2004, 2005? We have muddled the situation here.

>> Michael: Well, Joe Arizona debuts. Chip, I understand you're a big fan of Joe Arizona?

>> Chip Scutari: You know, I am no one to criticize radio ads, but I was listening to it the other day over my morning coffee and it just -- a little annoyed me a little. I don't know what about it just annoyed me. Kind of reminded me of the $5 bill, the guy for clean elections. Everyone now is looking for a character to sell their product and I think what the tracks are trying to do is do something different. The tribes are going to do the old sovereignty ad, this is how we make our living, we need this. Arizona Joe will stand out as being a little different. But a couple people are saying it was modeled after the Molson beer add, I am a Canadian ad. We will see if it works for the voters. It didn't rock my world.

>> Howard Fischer: One of the interesting things about it, you know what the message is, greed is good. It says the CRIT initiative gives you 25 million a year, the 17 tribe initiatives gives you 89 a million and our measure gives 300 million a year back to the state.

>> Michael: Possibly.

>> Howard Fischer: Possibly.

>>Robbie Sherwood: So it's trying to hit that note that this could help -- it's funny, it's a local comedian, I believe, a guy named Nick Tar who is this Joe Arizona character. It's funny at first. The repetition, I think, is what wears on you. The other -- the other initiatives are countering with ads directly to you, they're telling you what that ad fails to mention, is that they would turn racetracks into big casinos and this is really Joe California, backed by track owners from out of state.

>> Chip Scutari: Maybe I'm an east coast guy and I don't like the abrasive hard sell --

>> Howard Fischer: You just don't like the fact that Joe Arizona has less hair than even you do.

>> Chip Scutari: Oh!

>> Michael: In fact, from an advertising standpoint, Chip, picking on the point that Robbie just made, having an having an actor/comedian as a front man for the tribe's proposition seems was almost an invitation for the tribes to come back as they did in their ads and say what they aren't telling you is this is about out of state track owners.

>>Chip Scutari: Exactly. They are going to play that whole out of state versus in state. I think when you put into it the big context of this whole Indian gaming issue, the airwaves, both on the radio and television, are going to be saturated with television ads, radio ads, mailers. There is going to be unprecedented amount of millions of dollars thrown at these three initiatives. I am wondering if you are an average voter, not like one of us that covers the stuff, you will say, I don't know the difference between 200, 201, 202 and vote no on all of them.

>>Howard Fischer: That's what we came back to what we were talking about, if they vote them all down, which is the Jeff Groscost scenario, then we're back to the scenario where this governor, December 31st, or the next governor after December 31st, could, in fact, sign the very gaming compacts this legislature refused to ratify back in May.

>> Michael: Well, no doubt, Robbie, it is going to be a very expensive campaign. We are six, seven weeks away from the general election, and I don't think I've been able to turn on a radio this week without hearing a spot by somebody.

>>Robbie Sherwood: I think national public radio ratings are actually going to go up from people trying to get away from it.

>> Chip Scutari: I think the CRITs are going to spent 17 million, tribes and the tracks 5 million.

>> Michael: Those are California size numbers on campaigns. We started with courts in this segment. We will close with courts. Colorado River tribe getting some bad news on state regulation on their casino. >>Howard Fischer: Well, as you know, the CRIT tribe had already been separate from most of the rest of them which is why they have their own initiative, in fact. They don't believe in state oversight and they believe that their sovereign rights and the strict terms of the gaming compacts allow them to say to the state, no, you can't look at our employees, you can't have this oversight. A federal judge said, no, that's not way either the Indian gaming regulatory act works or the specific terms of the compacts.

>> Michael: Some concerns raised by some this week about lobbying efforts by Republican gubernatorial candidate Matt Salmon. Chip, why did this become an issue?

>>Chiup Scutari: I think what happened was some people have supported -- reported Matt had been a lobbyist for Phoenix and Qwest, and it was put into specifics what the contract entails and as we talked about before the show, it's the L word, and I don't mean landscaper, I mean a lobbyist. People in Arizona just seize on the word if you are a lobbyist. It doesn't matter if you're a consultant. If you talk to public officials, people for some reason, When you are in politics and you are a lobbyist, that's kind of a stigma. And Matt, to his credit, has always said I am doing this for my family, I have to make a living. We didn't make Janet Napolitano who's the Attorney General quit her day job. It might benefit Matt in the long run. This is out there and everyone knows what he does for a living. The one question I have is Phoenix getting their money because Matt does a lot of work on the campaign trail. He might work the hardest of any of the gubernatorial candidates --

>>Howard Fischer: You know what Phoenix is buying, the same thing everybody buys when they get a lobbyist, buying access. The folks in Phoenix and I talked to a city councilman this week, said we wanted entree to the congressional Republican delegation. We want Jon Kyl to come around on the issue of mass transit and light rail. We want the J.D. Hayworth on our side. How do you do that? You hire a Republican. I mean, it's very simple. You are buying access. Even if the reduced rate of $6,000 a month they are paying him, that's all they are buying.

>> Michael: Robbie, on the other hand, though, does the legislature need to pass a really resign to run law? Are we basically saying that you can't work for a living and run for office?

>>Robbie Sherwood: No, the fact is Matt Salmon has every right to earn a living, and in any way he really chooses, more or less, give or take a few lines of work, but the fact is this becomes a problem only if he's elected and then I don't think that having an open lobbying contract --

>> Michael: I think he would have to shut it down.

>>Robbie Sherwood: His opponents are clucking about and it making hay with it, but really does have a right to make a living.

>> Michael: Well, how did the Salmon campaign convince President Bush to come here next week?

>>Chip Scutari: I think Bush and his political strategists in the White House see Arizona as, I think, one of six states that's key to 2004. Bush didn't beat Gore by that much in Arizona and they really want Matt Salmon to be the next governor of Arizona, because when that 2004 presidential race comes around, they are going to need Arizona to win to keep Bush in the White House. So Bush is coming out next Friday. There's rumors Cheney and other cabinet officials will come out for fund raisers later in October and it's really a two for Matt, one being the president is coming, so he is going to raise big bucks, they're hoping a million bucks, the other thing is he is coming before early balloting, which is October 3rd. They need money to do TV ads. It's perfect timing. But it also benefits Janet Napolitano, because with clean elections, after Matt raises $615,000, she will get matched dollar for dollar. So she is happy, too. And Richard Mahoney, the independent is happy.

>>Robbie Sherwood: I am sure they're printing thank you cards for the fund raiser when Bush comes.

>> Michael: Robbie, one of the other aspects, you kind of get double bang for the buck because a portion of the proceeds are going to go to Rick Renzi in District 1 and that's a target race for both national parties in terms of control of the U.S. house.

>>Robbie Sherwood: A key swing district and neither candidate who emerged from there is -- was the conventional wisdom candidate, I believe. So both parties are going up there and getting to know some people, introducing themselves, and saying, sorry we didn't return your calls during the primary, go get them.

>>Chip Scutari: I think earlier in the day that Friday I think Bush will be up in Flagstaff for some kind of political rally with Renzi and Salmon.

>> Howard Fischer: It will be interesting to see whether Jon Kyl shows up, because you remember RENZI got his derriere in trouble by claiming to have been a major Kyl staffer and been part of drafting legislation. Kyl said the guy was an intern. He didn't do anything here.

>> Robbie Sherwood: Rick who?

>> Michael: All right. Well, obviously the primary election over. Both the Republicans and the Democrats hit the road with some unity tours and those kinds of things.

>>Robbie Sherwood: Yeah, the Republicans got on an airplane with the two also-rans, Betsey Bayless and Carol Springer in a major show of unity. At least between Salmon and Bayless the primary was not pleasant at times and that showed the wounds have healed. We're behind Matt all the way. The Democrats got on a bus, Chip got to go on a plane, I got to go on a bus.

>>Chip Scutari: This plane, they pitched it as plenty of room, spread out, bring your laptop. It was claustrophobic airlines, 19 seats. Like a tube. It wasn't like I was going in first class.

>> Robbie Sherwood: Cry me a river boat, cowboy. Anyway, on the bus, where I was, you saw all the democratic statewide candidates and I think they've locked on to a theme as it's been reported now on the Republican side of the primaries, the most conservative candidates in almost every single race won and the Democrats have set themselves up to at least from their perspective they have a villain, or as George Cunningham calls them, a gaggling cabal of ideologically challenged fanatics. I think you will see a lot more rhetoric in along those lines.

>> Michael: Was the absence of Alfredo Gutierrez on the bus noticeable or not?

>> Robbie Sherwood: Well, the way it was structured, I don't think anybody that lost their primary was invited. I think -- but Napolitano is going around and trying to get endorsements from the other people in the race. Alfredo has taken a pass, but a lot of his key supporters are coming on board, in particular representative John Laredo, who was sort of a -- honorary campaign chairman.

>>Chip Scutari: But, as Robbie says, the Democrats are trying to paint this as the most right wing ticket when Matt and McCain and Kyl went around at least five stops, they went to Phoenix, Tucson, Yuma, Flag and Prescott, they were totally painting Janet as the Clinton clone. She got her political -- she started off working for -- was appointed by Clinton and knew Gore and another Janet Reno. There's clearly not going away from the Clinton bashing.

>> Howard Fischer: This is typical. I mean, each side will try to paint the other as the extremist. In general elections, you have to pull in the vast center and despite the talk about Arizona and there are segments of certainly Yavapai County where somewhere to the right of Attila the Hun. The vast majority of state isn't. I am waiting now for Salmon's people to talk about Janet and Anita Hill. Talk about a 15-year-old story, close to that. I'm certainly waiting for Janet to talk about how Matt Salmon was so far to the right he shoved out Newt Gingrich. Clearly they are both going to paint each other. This is where it's going to get fun for Dick Mahoney. Mahoney's got nothing to lose. He decided to go after the elderly voters. His first ad shows him on a bus with a bunch seniors going to Mexico to pick up their prescriptions. He's no dummy. In terms of high efficacy voters, elderly, Sun City, he could be a spoiler for Matt as much as he could for Janet.

>> Michael: Primary election day finally came to a close this week.

>>Chip Scutari: Sort of.

>> Michael: Almost. District -- Legislative District 11, we got a clear winner and then we got a recount. >> Chip Scutari: Yeah, actually Saturday night when I was on the unity tour we found out that Deb Gullett had edged out Steve May by 58 votes and as we know, Steve May was a heavy favorite, he had raised $150,000. He lost by 58 votes. The surprise was that representative Steve Tully who didn't have a lot of money, walked door to door and what we are hearing now is the right to life people got out for Tully. He was the only pro life in the three-way race, did a lot of calls for him and what they call single shot.

>>Robbie Sherwood: The right to life and some of the other conservative groups did a lot of work in a lot of the primaries and were key to a lot of those victories, but the fact is Steve Tully just outworked Steve May. May had all this money, I think did he one or two mailers. He was spending his campaign election cash on anticlean elections ads, you know, which doesn't say vote for Steve May. Then a lot of people see this as arrogance. I think his heart was in the right place but he took off for Macedonia to be an election observer on the day before the primary and it was reported before the primary that was what he was going to do and I imagine there were probably some voters who said, if he doesn't care, I don't care either. I am voting for the other guy.

>>Chip Scutari: One of the ironic things about the clean elections ad is he criticized Andy Thomas who won the GOP primary. Maybe there's some justice in that.

>> Michael: Given the fact this is not Florida, would we expect any change in the Leff-Gerard result with the recount --

>>Chip Scutari: I don't think. I think the count of September 23rd when it becomes official and looks like representative Barbara Leff will unseat the veteran Sue Gerard, which we are going to miss her quotes and her honesty and independence at the state house.

>> Michael: We're going to have to have a statewide recount on the Libertarian race because it's inside, what, the 300 vote threshold there. That's fine. The impact of that, though, Howie, is nobody can print ballots for another four or five or six days. So it may have an impact on the start of early balloting.

>>Howard Fischer: And that gets even more squirrely. People say, well, gee, you'll mail out the ballots late. Except for the fact that because Arizona is under certain sections of the Civil Rights Act, if you change anything, you almost have to get permission of Congress. I mean, really, you might have to go to a federal court to say we cannot physically print the ballots, have them out 33 days ahead of the general election. So if in fact there is that delay, you're going to have to go into federal court and explain why.

>> Michael: Interesting additional argument maybe for having an earlier primary, but politically, I don't think that's ever going to happen.

>> Howard Fischer: The problem is, how much earlier? If you do it over the summer, nobody cares over the summer. Half the Arizonans are in San Diego.

>>Chip Scutari: Or Laveen.

>> Howard Fischer: Where it's nice and cool, thank you for the plug. But how much earlier do we want it? Do we really want primaries in February or March and then I realize the parties would like it, then everything gets to heal over, do you really want to have Matt Sam un and Janet Napolitano banging on doors from March through November? Oh, Lord, save us!

>> Michael: One other thing that was finally decided, although it wasn't in much question, was the -- they firmed up the results in the second congressional district race, it's Trent Franks versus Randy Camacho.

>>Chip Scutari: I want to say Hector Camacho.

>> Michael: There was some speculation that the Democrats might make a run, but the registration advantage of the Republicans in CD2 is just overwhelming.

>>Chip Scutari: I think it's 18 or 19 points. I don't think they're going to have a good shot but they might make a run at it.

>> Howard Fischer: We're back to the issue of do you take Trent Franks' record and talk about what he has voted and maybe scare people up there.

>> Michael: Speaking of a pretty strong message, DPS Director Dennis Garrett coming out heavily against the marijuana Proposition 203.

>> Howard Fischer: And it was -- aside from the public policy issues of do we want the State to decriminalize marijuana, do we want to make medical marijuana available based on a doctor's note, he said, look, let me talk about this purely from a personal perspective. This initiative would require me to set aside people to give out marijuana, two ounces a month to anybody with a note, and I'd actually have to test it. He said, look, we seize loads of this stuff. Who knows, there's strychnine in there, there's horse manure in there, and so I'd have to test it, which would cost millions of dollars just to set up a lab. Of course, when I said, So, Dennis, if you get to charge for the dope, would you be willing to support the initiative? He didn't like that as an option.

>> Chip Scutari: Michael, I just want to know why every medical marijuana question always goes to Howie? Is he an expert?

>> Michael: He is our resident expert. In fact, I was just going to ask you if there is manure in the marijuana, does it really impact --

>>Howard Fischer: It just smells a bit. I told Dennis there is no problem. You need a marijuana tester?

>> Michael: As Arizona lawmakers figure out how to deal with the growing budget crisis, and I try to figure out how to deal with Howie, Senate President Randall Gnant this week released a week of possible budget cuts. Robbie, what's on Gnant's chopping block?

>> Robbie Sherwood: Lot of things. A lot of the stuff has been talked about by the governor in her list of priorities. The federal premium tax that the feds have agreed to pay and the legislature turned their noses up at, 30, 40 million dollars there. He's also talking about a couple of other new taxes on satellite services. He's talking about going along with the governor's $150 million in budget cuts that she's ordered right now from her agencies. You're starting to see some of the effects from those in other -- the department of real estate closed their Tucson office this week and laid off five or six people. So --

>>Howard Fischer: Actually the funny part is they undid that. We got a press release from the department of real estate saying, this has been ordered, in fact, by somebody that didn't have the authority and by the way, that closure we announced, never mind?

>> Robbie Sherwood: I was off today.

>> Michael: That's right, Robbie. What is the reality check here, though -- Gnant was obviously talking about a special session pre-general. That just ain't going to happen.

>> Robbie Sherwood: Gnant is making a lot of noise saying that the sooner we get in there the better. I think that he's making that -- rattling some sabers and trying to stay at the forefront of the issue because -- and always has been sort of a man without a caucus. He's the president of a 15-15 Senate and, you know, neither side is really -- members of his fan club at times and so he is trying to stay engaged on this issue. But the governor and the rest of them are just political realists. Over our dead bodies will we come in before our elections.

>> Michael: How would you rate the chances of a special session after the general, a lame duck special session?

>> Robbie Sherwood: I would rate them as high. Very high. Because the problem is real. It's growing. It's $400 million hole in this year's budget, and their list of options is dwindling. The more time that goes, the less they can do to solve the problem.

>> Howard Fischer: And things aren't looking better. We got the latest unemployment statistics the other day and what it showed while unemployment is down, which has to do with people going back to education jobs, retail employment, the stores, are actually employing fewer people now than they were a year ago and that's kind of scary when you consider the fact that this is what drives the economy and the sales. What's happened is consumer confidence hasn't returned. We not only have post 9-11, we have the talks of layoffs, and the threat of war. People don't spend money when they are scared.

>> Michael: Another couple budget impacting related developments this week, the courts cutting the budget some slack on the settlement in relation to the tax dividend class action suit.

>>Howard Fischer: What happened was, as you know, last year the State Supreme Court had gone ahead and said, you can't have class action lawsuits for refunds of income taxes illegally paid. So what this did is it took Helen Laudwig's (phonetic) case, and Helen Laudwig actually died shortly after filing the claim, and it became a 300-plus million-dollar case. They finally worked out a deal. I think the State finally saw the writing on the wall and said, Look, we owe the money, and the way taxes are, it's not like you can make a claim against the state. You get to take the money out of the tax receipts there. So they cut a nice deal, which actually is going to help the state -- not really help but won't hurt the state in the long run. They said we'll make it over four payments but the first payment isn't due until August of 2004. So you not only don't affect the 400 million short fall this year but the 1 billion shortfall next year.

>> Michael: Why is everybody shoving a duck at you, Howie?

>>Howard Fischer: This is your typical Republican attitude. The Republicans sent out these ducks today --

>> Chip Scutari: Notice the Republican one compared to the Capitol Media Services --

>>Howard Fischer: Oh, dear. Is this duck envy?

>> Robbie Sherwood: The big duck.

>>Howard Fischer: And the -- Brian Murray, head of the party said here is the deal, it's Janet Napolitano's fault that we have to pay this money. She should have settled the case earlier, except for the fact that up until the state Supreme Court ruled, there was never a class action lawsuit allowed in income tax cases. In fact, when I talked to Mark Killian today, former Republican lawmaker, he said, basically that's crap. It was my decision as the head of the Department of Revenue not to settle, not Janet Napolitano's. So --

>> Michael: So the duck is --

>> Robbie Sherwood: Ducking her responsibilities.

>> Michael: Ducking the issue --

>>Howard Fischer: And the other half of it is, you know, here's my feeling, if it quacks like a duck, it's believable. This is the Republican -- the Republican duck.

>> Robbie Sherwood: That's your duck.

>> Robbie Sherwood: Brian Murray will be surprised to learn he is the head of the Republican party, but that -- he has made a habit of second-guessing every decision --

>> Michael: On that ducky note, we are out of time.

>> Howard Fischer: Get the duck out of here.

>> Michael: To see a transcript of tonight's show or share your views or contact us, please visit the Channel 8 website at www.kaet.asu.edu, click on "Horizon" on the left side of the screen, and follow the links. Monday, continue our comprehensive coverage of this year's ballot measures with a look at proposition 201, the gaming initiative sponsored by the racetracks. Tuesday, the latest KAET/ASU poll results of a survey on the top statewide races, including governor. Also on Tuesday, the scoop on proposition 101, which will allow the state to trade state trust land for other public lands. Wednesday we start out ad watch for election 2002, checking Indian gaming ads for accuracy. Thursday more proposition information, pros and cons, on 203 and 302. Thanks very much for being here this evening. Have a great weekend. I'm Michael Grant. Good night.