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September 13, 2002

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
The Journalists Roundtable
In-Studio Guests:
Mark Flatten, East Valley Tribune,
Keven Willey, The Arizona Republic;
Chip Scutari, The Arizona Republic

>> Michael: It's Friday September 13th, and in the headlines this week, the results of the primary election are in. As expected, Matt Salmon easily won the Republican primary while Attorney General Janet Napolitano cruised to victory on the democratic side. Incumbent superintendent of public instruction Jaime Molera defeated by challenger Tom Horne. And several members of Arizona's legislature defeated in their bids for reelection. Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. This is the journalists roundtable. Joining me to talk about these and other stuff are Mark Flatten, political reporter with the East Valley Tribune, Keven Willey, editorial page he had you are for "The Arizona Republic," and Chip Scutari, legislative reporter for "The Arizona Republic." For the past year Matt Salmon, Janet Napolitano had carried the label of front runners in their respective races. On Tuesday night both of them easily won their primary races. Mark, let's jump to the general. You have Matt. You have Janet. You have Dick. Who Wins?

>> Mark Flatten: Well, this far out, you know, the cards at this point I think are in Salmon's hands. One, did he very well in the primary. Far better than I think anybody expected him to do. I think people expected him to win. He was n deed, the front-runner but his margin of victory over Betsey Bayless was very big. That's going to help him raise money. That's going to energize his people, his base. It gives him a good launching platform. Janet Napolitano also did very well. She is a very attractive candidate in the general. During the primary she refused to move to the left. She is a very conservative, law and order Democrat. That's how she portrayed herself. Normally I would say Janet would have an excellent probably 50/50 shot, the problem is she has a come other guys, Dick Mahoney, an independent, former democratic Secretary of State, long time democratic family in Arizona. What he offers is if people are not -- don't like Janet, would never vote for Matt, he is sort of a safe haven for a lot of Democrats. The other complicating factor and I don't know if this is going to iron itself out is Alfredo Gutierrez was not at all enamored with January oat election night. He said he's going to sit the race out, not back her, not help her.

>> Michael: He is going to sit but not affirmatively endorse Mahoney? >> Mark Flatten: At this point he is not going to affirmatively endorse Mahoney or Napolitano although it was expected Mahoney was expected at Gutierrez headquarters on Tuesday night. Normally an independent like Mahoney maybe he'll draw 5, 7%, not necessarily Mahoney, he may do much better, but any independent if they draw 5, 7%, that may not be enough to sway a race. But I think the Salmon-Napolitano head-to-head matchup will be close enough to where those are going to be tough to overcome.

>> Chip Scutari: Piggyback on Mark said about the independent candidate, unlike previous years, Mahoney will have 720,000 dollars of clean elections money which can he do a lot of radio, lot of television and, he is very smart, quirky, eccentric guy. He can get the media by doing different media stunts. He was down in Tucson the other day with -- they call it the human billboard. He has like four or five volunteers that say are you tired this, this and that and he holds the last sign that says vote Mahoney. When he goes into rural area, Phoenix and Tucson, people really don't pay a lot of attention to the governor's race but here in a little town like Winslow or somewhere like that, a gubernatorial candidate comes to your town, it's a big deal.

>> Michael: Why does Betsey Bayless never gain traction in that race?

>> Keven Willey: I think largely it's a function she doesn't fit well in the mode of the Republican voter who turns out. You had a learn turnout. Primaries in general tend to attract the extremists on both ends. Plus that's exacerbated when you have such a low turnout, 19 or 20%. That was really Betsey Bayless comfort zone. She comes from a very long standing Republican party -- Republican family, but she's been largely appointed to the jobs, first time around, she's done well when she had to run for reelection, but that has never been her strength.

>> Michael: On the other hand, Mark, Carol Springer obviously well positioned for that side of the Republican party. She gets 7 trillion dollars on August 20th. Was it just too much too late?

>> Mark Flatten: I think that was part of it. She didn't get her money until early voting was already something like two weeks along. So the question is, is that -- you know, can you effectively use that much money? There were a couple other factors. Again, Salmon has effectively been running for this job for two years, since he left Congress and probably even before that. He had a good organization in place. His people were energized. Contrast with that Betsey Bayless and Carol Springer, who were not dynamic campaigners, neither one of them really gave you any particular compelling reason to vote for them. I mean, Carol Springer's ads were, I'm Carol, I'm a very nice conservative person and she is, but that doesn't really give you reason to split off from Sam un and go vote for Carol. Betsey was -- has never really had to fight for an office like she had to this time.

>> Keven Willey: I think from here forward the outcome depends on who defines Matt Salmon. If Matt Salmon defines Matt Salmon in the minds of voters, he will define himself as a moderate Republican and you can tell by those who have covered a number of his campaign stops, he sort of shifts his message according to which group he is talking to when he speaks to a woman's group, he is one way, when he talks to a district meeting of the Republican party he speaks another way. He is very adroit, adept at shifting his message. On the other hand, if Dick Mahoney or Janet Napolitano define Matt Salmon based on his record and his much more conservative stance on issues than had a Matt Salmon likes to talk about, then maybe one of them has a chance of doing much better.

>> Mark Flatten: But one of the -- one of the -- it's largely going to be tax and spend. Coming out and saying, I won't raise your taxes. Well, how do you paint him into a corner saying that? Spending, he will have to say we'll have to cut some programs. One other thing about Mahoney, he is not your quintessential independent candidate. He is a very, very bright guy, very dynamic campaigner and I think he has a pretty strong base, particularly in the democratic party.

>> Chip Scutari: The one thing I think Matt has going for him, which Janet might not, is just that intangible, whether you like him or not, when he is on the stump, he is more charismatic. I covered one of his speeches at some rotary club and he told some great speech about how his dad was injured and put on his boot for three weeks and his ankle was swollen. The crowd really -- pushed up in their seats and listened. That's the one intangible, whether it's Reagan or Clinton, they connect with voters and Matt does that.

>> Michael: Speaking of tangibles, and this is going to impact a lot of races, and that's three gaming propositions with a lot of money pulling out a lot of people. Who benefits in the governor's race or who benefits generically? Do all D's boats rise --

>> Chip Scutari: That's the common wisdom, the common thinking the Democrats are going to do the huge get out to vote with millions of dollars to get people on the reservation to vote for Janet and the statewide office holders, Chris Comiskey for Secretary of State, and on down the line. But the Republicans I talked to don't seem too concerned. I don't know if that's spin control or what. They say it will be a little bump for the Democrats but don't seem too concerned. From what I'm hearing, it's going to be an unprecedented amount of money they put into the get out to vote.

>> Mark Flatten: But who off the reservation is really going to be that compelled to get out and vote for that? I don't know --

>> Michael: People who recently won a large --

>> Mark Flatten: Won large, and there ain't a lot.

>> Keven Willey: I don't know any longer you can define gaming issues as partisan. Maybe in years past it was a democratic issue more. I don't think that's the case anymore. You still have a very small pocket of people who for moral reasons oppose gambling, but that's a very small pocket. I don't know that beyond that it's a partisan issue anymore. I think as many conservative Republicans do the slot machines as liberal Democrats.

>> Chip Scutari: Here is one thing that might come into play. Bob Fannin, chair of the Republican party, you know was the chief lobbyist for the tracks for a long time, so some native American groups like Salt River and a few others have dumped a lot of money into the democratic pockets, or into the coffers of the state party. That may sway some votes because when you get a lot of money you can do lot of mailers.

>> Michael: Conventional wisdom, Tom Horne beats Jaime Molera because of money, correct?

>> Mark Flatten: Well, really there are sort of two competing theories as to why Tom Horne beat Jaime Molera. The first one goes like this, across the board, conservatives turned out in huge numbers. Every contested race that showed up. Jaime was weak on AIMS. Jaime was weak on bilingual. Jaime never defined a big picture vision for education. And Tom Horne spent a lot of money. The second theory from the editorial board is Republicans are all racists, if you look at the numbers --

>> Keven Willey: Which is a grace misstatement --

>> Mark Flatten: Which if you look at the numbers, almost two to one Republicans voted for Jaime over comparable number of Democrats voting for Alfredo Gutierrez. Yeah, obviously money was the huge factor. Jaime was not at all a dynamic campaigner. Jaime was a Jane Hull appointment who never really took that office anywhere, never really did much with it. The irony here is that Tom Horne has sort of portrayed himself as a dynamic champion, but when he was in the legislature, he was almost part of the furniture. He was not exactly the bold, dynamic visionary --

>> Keven Willey: To portray this as the fact that the conservative Republicans won is ludicrous. Horne is a former Democrat. I don't think it was the partisan -- what it was was the spending. I mean, he outspent five to one. It's not just the act of spending, it's what you do with the money. What he did with the money was run a set of commercials that lays the race issue in a way that was unfair and reflected poorly on Jaime Molera and that's why he won.

>> Mark Flatten: No, what he ran on the race -- the so-called race issue was bilingual education which was approved by a fairly substantial margin by Arizona voters. He convinced people that Jaime was not committed to it, that he was not enforcing it.

>> Keven Willey: Yet when Jaime talks, he talks about how he was raised in Nogales and the he is the perfect example of how important it is to learn English when you are young and speaking Spanish. So that's not an issue at all.

>> >> Michael: I like it very much, Chip and I'm trying to move to other races here. Very quickly. Tom Horne's victory good news for Jay Blanchard?

>> Keven Willey: I don't know how to measure that, whether it's good news or bad news. I think it will be a hot race. Jay Blanchard certainly can bring his education credentials to the table and talk a blue streak there. On the other hand, here's Tom Horne who dipped into his pocket for $500,000 or something in the primary. I assume he has more than pennies left for the general. Jay Blanchard may find himself up against a well financed campaign.

>> Mark Flatten: Before you move off that, can I say -- one -- one more thing about the republic -- the biggest factor in the race might be Mrs. Horne and whether she wants him to continue dipping into his money. But when we talk about conservative candidates doing well, that's not just the Republican race. If you look at the governor's race, Janet Napolitano ran as the most conservative Democrat and Jay Blanchard ran as the most conservative Democrat.

>> Michael: Andrew Thomas also a key pen fishery of the -- beneficiary of the conservative turnout?

>> Chip Scutari: That's another example of running a good race. Whether you like his tactics or like his politics, he was out there full force about, I'm the best -- I'll be the toughest on child molesters, he ran hard against his two opponents and hit them really hard, you know, on the radio and TV. He was swept up in the conservative movement, and made him the Victor on Tuesday night.

>> Michael: Secretary of State will be Ruth Solomon versus Jan Brewer. What do you think?

>> Keven Willey: Secretary of states, Chris Comiskey --

>> Michael: I'm sorry.

>> Keven Willey: That's a tough one, because, I mean, you look at voter registration figures, the Republican normally wins that seat without too much trouble. I think Chris Comiskey can campaign like nobody's business, he certainly knows how to exploit free media. We all get a little tired of him from time to time. I guess I would have to, if you go by conventional wisdom, go with the Republican, but Chris Comiskey will run a strong campaign.

>> Chip Scutari: I agree with Keven, but Chris has been really strong on this no-call list and telemarketers and the one thing that sells with voters out there, are you tired of telemarketers calling you when you have your Franks and beans at night or whatever you eat. I don't know where Jan stands on that. I think Chris will try to make a lot of hay out of.

>> Mark Flatten: East good campaigner and I'm not sure Jan Brewer is as good a campaigner. She does have the registration edge and she is obviously a very credible candidate. She has been on the board of supervisors. She knows what she is doing but I don't know if she has that sort of populist streak.

>> Michael: Let me get Ruth Solomon's replacement correct. State treasurer Ruth Solomon versus David Peterson. What do you think?

>> Keven Willey: Wow, that's a tough one. I mean, you have -- the guy who ran that office scandal free essentially for a dozen years or more, defeated by David Peterson who has no background or expertise in managing the state's $20 billion. Ruth Solomon was appropriations chairman in the Senate. Ole scale you would like to think she would do well in this race. She's a Democrat from Tucson. Two tough things to overcome in a statewide race. She has an uphill climb.

>> Michael: With the creation of two new congressional seats in Arizona and the retirement of incumbent Bob stump several crowded congressional races. Keven, let's start in stump's old district. How did Trent Franks win?

>> Keven Willey: He did a lot of last-minute campaigning, sort of below the radar screen. He was sending -- he had a lot of radio, first of all, which wasn't really below the radar screen, but I don't know how many of you received e-mails from Trent Franks where if you click on the e-mail, his voice pops out of the computer and starts talking about why you should vote for him. I was not personally acquainted with those kind of campaign techniques before.

>> Michael: Makes you want to reach in there and pull out the sound board.

>> Keven Willey: Absolutely! He poured something like $200,000 of his moan money in there -- his own money in there towards the end. Nobody was looking at him -- I think it was a seven-way race and he was like fourth. Nobody gave him a lot of attention and he kind of skyrocketed to the front at the last minute.

>> Michael: But, Mark, you know, Trent Franks, Andrew Thomas, David Peterson, Matt Salmon, I mean, there's a lot of conservative candidates running --

>> Mark Flatten: I don't know hoot dog and who the flea is in this but somebody obviously, I think, pulled a lot of very conservative candidates -- very conservative vote has turned out. Look at the west Valley, Trent Franks winning. Again, Andrew Thomas. The people that a lot of folks had just sort of written off as the right wing nut. They did very well. It was a combination that they were good campaigners, they're credible candidates, for the most part, and -- and turnout.

>> Chip Scutari: The other thing, Michael, a lot of Democrats and moderate Republicans started whining, the ultraconservatives -- yeah, they are, they're well organized and why don't you guys do that. Stop whining and get out there.

>> Keven Willey: That underscores why there's such a disconnect between the Arizona legislature and general Arizona. You have low turnout primaries, dictating who the candidates and you get a very conservative legislature. On the other hand, when you have general election contests over raising taxes or education or spending more money for healthcare for the working people, general Arizonans vote in favor of those. You have that on the one hand and the legislature on the other. You have kind of a disconnect, kind of the recipe for financial disaster.

>> Chip Scutari: This state's politics is bizarre. We have clean elections and we have Trent Franks and Andrew Thomas.

>> Mark Flatten: Andrew Thomas being the only clean elections candidate in the race which is sort of ironic.

>> Michael: CD 1 up north, George Cordova beats Steve Udall in Apache County.

>> Chip Scutari: I mean, the rural area up there fought hard for their own district and they got it and then two carpet baggers pretty much win. Rick Renzi is from Virginia, showed up a couple months ago and George Cordova somehow beat Udall and Fred Duval. A lot of people were scratching their head over those two races. One thing is for sure, the Republican national committee and the democratic national committee are going to dumb appear lot of money into that race because it can have big ramifications in Washington D.C. It.

>> Keven Willey: Tells you how much Arizona has changed when you have a Tenney, a whiting and a Udall on the battle -- three old Arizona names almost up there like with Babbitt and gold water and all three go down.

>> Michael: Absolutely. Mark, it's a point that needs to be driven home, because that legislative district is one of a few nationwide that both parties will dumb appear ton of money in because, what, you only need a five or six-vote swing in the U.S. house for control?

>> Mark Flatten: Yeah, and what they're going to be looking at now is two factors, you know, how close is the district and who are the candidates, obviously. But if you look at what, for instance, the district two race, the Trent Franks race we just talked about, if the margins were close enough, you would see a lot of money going into that. But Republicans have such an overwhelming registration advantage. That northern district, it's pretty close. It's worth it for both parties to sinking a lot of must not knee, particularly if you factor in the Indian gaming initiatives.

>> Chip Scutari: Don't be surprised to see President Bush hugging Rick Renzi pretty soon.

>> Michael: Down in congressional district 7, I was absolutely astounded by Raul Grijalva's primary victory.

>> Keven Willey: I was, too. Not so much that he won, but he almost won two to one in an eight-candidate field.

>> Michael: Three other Hispanics

. >> Keven Willey: It's almost mathematically impossible when you think bit, he dusted everybody, including Elaine Richardson, who finished second.

>> Michael: That's another one where the primary is effectively the general --

>> Keven Willey: Yeah, there is a Republican running but the district just horribly unbalanced down there, so I'm sure we will have congressman Grijalva, and I think this is a function of the primary vote and turnout being more liberal. He was probably the most liberal candidate among the eight. Very well connected in Tucson. Pima County supervisor. Clearly knows the machine and probably created after the machinery down there. So, again, not surprised he won but the margin was phenomenal.

>> Mark Flatten: But that is a big factor in a crowd race when you have seven or eight candidates, that guy that's got the organization, you know, hum history, some name I.D., that's like the one recipe that can walk away from with a huge margin like that. Because the rest of the candidates didn't seem to have too much organization going for them.

>> Chip Scutari: I'm just hoping Raul and Trent Franks can come up with good compromise legislation for the citizens of Arizona.

>> Keven Willey: I want to listen to that conversation.

>> Michael: several incumbent lawmakers went down to defeat in the primary elections, while some races are so close there will probably be a recount. Let's start in district 11. That's kind of in the pre-Mary -- I think it's ironic it's so close we're waiting until Monday.

>> Chip Scutari: Steve Tully didn't have a lot of money, was outspent by more than 50 thousand tow by his two opponents, walked neighborhoods and won, and Deb Gullett and Steve May the other two are fighting for their lives in the recount. Then on the Senate side you had Sue Gerard, the incumbent and Barbara Leff coming over from the house, they're in a 27-vote recount. So the premier district isn't lacking for entertainment. Looks like it will play out until Monday.

>> Keven Willey: It's amazing, we all cynically say, how much does our vote count, does it mat center the house race, the difference between Deb Gullett and Steve May was 13 votes. This isn't a huge district.

>> Chip Scutari: So maybe he should have stayed here and knocked on the Macedonia to observe the elections.

>> Mark Flatten: He spent a lot of his campaign money on radio ads just blasting clean elections.

>> Michael: I suppose ultimately we will get used to this, Mark, but I keep forgetting about the fact that those early ballots that come in on Tuesday don't get counted -- we've gone through this now for a couple of election cycles, but on any close raise you have to remind yourself doing election coverage and watching this stuff that we're not going to know the results on this one until next Monday. It's not like 4:00 in the morning.

>> Mark Flatten: And essentially what they're checking out is, let's say I request an early ballot and then show up at the polls. They need to make sure I didn't vote both times. That takes a little bit of cross checking.

>> Keven Willey: Also, if you just show up at the polls with your early ballot and hand it to them, they take it, set it aside -- if it comes in the mail, they take it and set it aside and count it later. So there is a bigger pool a lot of us remember on election night still out to be counted.

>> Michael: So does Jim Waring win or does Wes Marsh self-destruct?

>> Chip Scutari: Waring knew McCain, knew lot of people in the political world and Wes Marsh couldn't find his home address, had trouble locating it or telling the media where he lived. I think it was a combination of both. But Waring, he ran a solid race, and Wes Marsh is going to have to look for work elsewhere.

>> Michael: Speaking of address difficulties, is that the reason for Debra Brimhall's defeat?

>> Mark Flatten: You know, that district, I don't know the reason for Debra Brimhall's defeat. I don't know the reason she got elect in the first place. You explain it. I can't.

>> Michael: That was a good answer.

>> Chip Scutari: Keven is going to be upset that both Debra Brimhall and James craft --

>> Keven Willey: I'm crying in my milk over that.

>> Michael: House was Slade Mead able to beat Lori Daniels.

>> Chip Scutari: He raised the whole alt fuels flag, how Lori had or had not bought an alternative fuel vehicle and hit her hard before she responded, had a lot of money, and Lori responded too late in the game and that's why she lost.

>> Mark Flatten: He also had the backing of the police and firefighters unions, which on the day before September 11th is good to have on your side.

>> Michael: That's right. Down in South Phoenix, the Bill Brotherton, Earl Wilcox, Senate race, Brotherton actually wins that fairly handily.

>> Keven Willey: He's the incumbent, so you would think he would have some small advantage, although Earl Wilcox served in the legislature for many years many years ago. So I'm sure he thought he had some advantage there as well. I have happen to live in that district and I got lots and lots of Brotherton mail pieces or door hangers, and I got also from the house candidates as well. I didn't get a thing from Wilcox at all. So I think it must come down to just better organization.

>> Mark Flatten: Which is unusual given the Wilcox machine that has been so effective in the past.

>> Keven Willey: Right.

>> Michael: Cynthia Dunn loses to Vershure in District 22. That was kind --

>> Chip Scutari: She's too liberal. No, I mean, Thayer -- that comes down to who is the most conservative, and he is the big grass roots guy, district committee man, looked like he outworked her, but who can figure out these races. You would think she is a early for Gilbert Mayor, she knows a lot of people, she'll win but nothing makes sense.

>> Mark Flatten: When I said I don't know who the dog and who the fleas are, I think he's one of the fleas. I don't think -- I do think he benefitted from whoever drew the conservative vote out.

>> Michael: Across all of these races, and by that I guess I'm back sort of generally, certainly will set up statewide races in a variety of others some clear choices for voters.

>> Keven Willey: And that's why it's so important how the candidates get defined. I mean, on the one hand you could argue that this is the beginning of a conservative raid, so you can expect a lot of Republicans do very well. A flip side was that I heard someone make the Republican party nominated people so far to the right it's a prime opportunity for the Democrats to come in and appear mainstream and sweep the state. I think it's critical from here forward how the candidates are defined and how voters -- in a general election, a very different electorate, how they respond.

>> Mark Flatten: That will also depend on the count. I mean, Samson a very bright, articulate guy that will be hard to redefine by the others. Trent Franks is pretty well locked in cement. He will be easy to define.

>> Michael: We'll try to define them over the next six weeks or so. Thanks a lot. That was a fun show. To see a transcript of tonight's show, which you should do, or to share your views or contact us, please visit the Channel 8 website at www.kaet.asu.edu, click on "Horizon" on the left side of the screen, and follow the links. Monday, join us as we start our look at 15 measures on state and county ballots. We start with proposition 200, the Colorado River Indian tribes gaming initiative. Tuesday, the City of Peoria is working to strike a balance between the needs of developers, retailers and residents with a new set of design guidelines. We'll talk about those. Wednesday, a look at another ballot measure, proposition 411, which asks voters to extend the Maricopa County jail tax. Thanks for joining us on a Friday. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great weekend. Good night.