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Transcripts

October 16, 2002

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
Ad Watch: Congressional District 1;
A touching story of one Arizona school teacher' s efforts to help impoverished children in Central America
In-Studio Guests:
Dr. Bruce Merrill, political analyst, polster and Arizona State University Professor of Journalism and Telecommunication

>> Michael: Tonight on "Horizon," countdown to election day. Political television ads are taking center stage. We'll have an exclusive "Horizon" ad watch with some revelations on an ad for a congressional candidate.

>>> Plus, a touching story of how one Arizona school teacher is bringing impoverished Central American children a better world, one book at a time.

>>> Good evening, I'm Michael Grant.

>>> Lots of money and attention being pumped into the congressional district one race in Arizona. It is one of 35 races being watched nationwide that could change the power balance on Capitol Hill. One ad running is funded by a national Republican organization and makes claims against Democratic candidate George Cordova. "Horizon's" Mike Sauceda checked out the accuracy of that ad, and here is what he found.

>> Commercial: At a recent forum George Cordova asked whether people really need a tax cut, but George Cordova failed to pay his own taxes. Cordova was slapped with one lien for failure to pay his Arizona income taxes and this year Sonoma County slapped another lien against his business for failure to pay taxes. No wonder George Cordova asked if people really need a tax cut. He expects us to pay the taxes he won't. Call George Cordova. Ask him why we should pay his 2 taxes.

>>> In a recent forum, George Cordova asked whether people really need a tax cut.

>> Reporter: We are going to stamp this incomplete. That's because the National Republican Congressional Committee which paid for the ad could not tell "Horizon" where or when Cordova made that statement. They told us they would give us a tape of the statement, but as of air time, we have not received it.

>> Commercial: But George Cordova failed to pay his own taxes. Cordova was slapped with one lien for failure to pay his Arizona income taxes.

>> Reporter: Stamp this claim accurate. Cordova did have a lien placed against him for failure to pay all of his 1994 Arizona income taxes, confirmed by the Arizona Department of Revenue. A Cordova spokesperson says the reason he didn't pay the bill was because he had moved and the Department of Revenue was using an old address. However, according to the Maricopa County Recorder's Office, Cordova did live at the address the Department of Revenue was using when it filed the lien in March of 1996. The Recorder's office says Cordova's address did not change until he moved to Gila County in 2001. However as of air time, his campaign did not provide any proof that he lived at a different address that the Department of Revenue was using in 1996. Cordova's camp says the 3 candidate is in the process of paying that bill.

>> Commercial: And this year Sonoma County slapped another lien against his business for failure to pay taxes.

>> Reporter: This claim calls for misleading stamp. It is true that Kalm Group Holdings, a company in which Cordova help a minority ownership, did have a tax lien against it, however, according to the Sonoma County Tax Collections Department, there is a reason for that. The department said it had been sending bills to a Payson, California address. There is no Payson, California. The address the Sonoma County Tax Department was attempting to send the bill to was in Payson, Arizona. And the tax department says before that, the company's bills were paid on time. The National Republican Congressional Committee was unaware of the bad address but a spokesman says that changes nothing. Cordova's camp was also unaware of the situation. A spokesperson says that bill will be paid.

>> Michael: You've just seen a "Horizon" ad watch. We're also doing ad watches in conjunction with "The Arizona Republic." Here is an ad watch "The Republic" did on a commercial making claims against democratic attorney general candidate, Terry Goddard.

>> Commercial: After losing two elections for Governor, Goddard has decided being attorney general is good enough. He's campaigning on a soft-on-crime agenda of halting the death penalty, repealing mandatory prison sentences, and continuing to give plea bargains to child molesters.

>> Andrew Thomas: I'm Andrew Thomas, as attorney general, I'll fight for safer schools and neighborhoods, protect consumers from fraud, and put violent predators in prison where they belong.

>> Commercial: Paid for by Thomas for attorney general.

>> Commercial: Terry Goddard is back again, after losing two elections for Governor, Goddard has decided being attorney general is good enough. He's campaigning on a soft-on-crime agenda of halting the death penalty. >> Reporter: This claim is misleading. According to an ad watch by "The Arizona Republic," Terry Goddard has stated on numerous occasions that he supports the death penalty and opposes a moratorium. He does support a public vote on the death penalty but does not push for one.

>> Commercial: Repealing mandatory prison sentences.

>> Reporter: "The Republic" says this claim is accurate, but doesn't tell the whole story. It reports that Goddard has written that the legislature should carefully consider reducing the number of mandated sentences, especially for victimless crimes. Goddard also says that mandated sentences should be imposed selectively.

>> Commercial: And continuing to give plea bargains to child molesters.

>> Reporter: "The Republic's" ad watch reports this one should be stamped accurate. Goddard would continue plea bargaining with child molesters, but that is how the justice system deals with this crime. Goddard says that Andrew Thomas's plan to abolish plea bargaining for child molesters is not practical and is not a major part of the attorney general's job.

>> Michael: Some of the nastiest commercials have been in the race for Governor. We'll talk to polster and political analyst Bruce Merrill about that. But first, here's a look at an ad by Independent Gubernatorial candidate Dick Mahoney, attacking Republican Gubernatorial candidate Matt Salmon.

>> Commercial: Waco was nothing compared to Colorado City. I was taught as a child that one day we would go to war with law enforcement of the United States. Matt Salmon is, to my understanding, of the Mormon faith. He is not going to be able to address this issue because of a conflict in the beliefs of polygamy within that church. Richard Mahoney is an incredibly brave man.

>> Michael: Joining me now to talk about the mudslinging in political ads for the Governor's race, political analyst and polster, Dr. Bruce Merrill. Bruce, when does a campaign decide -- can going negative be good for a campaign?

>> Bruce Merrill: Well, yeah, there's two dimensions of negative campaigning, Michael. One, it's certainly legitimate to criticize your opponent, particularly if it's an incumbent in terms of his or her attendance, performance. If you saw in the last few days, for instance, Brewster has come out with an add attacking Chris Cummiskey saying as a Democratic senator that he's only been able to get one bill through the legislature with his name on it, and that as -- not chairman, but as member of the senate finance committee, that he's attended only about half of the time. Well, the question there is, is that true? Is it legitimate? And I think that kind of campaigning is negative, but I don't think it crosses the line. On the other hand, when you personally attack somebody, when you attack their sexuality, when you tack their religion, when you attack their family, those kinds of things are negative, and they cross the line, and they are unacceptable in our culture. So I think when we talk about negative campaigning, you're right. There are some ads that are negative, but they are legitimate kinds of criticisms.

>> Michael: So is it ever in those sensitive areas, and I think they are sensitive because the American public gets uncomfortable with those kinds of allegations, they don't perceive them as fair or kind of makes you -- you shudder. Is there a point in time where you make a deliberate decision to cross that line, or is the answer, no, don't ever cross that line?

>> Bruce Merrill: Well, I think that what happens with many campaigns, Michael, is polling has become so important in politics that you monitor, you really know where you are. Dick Mahoney knows he's getting 5% of the vote right now. Now, if you come to the conclusion that you can't win, then maybe you do something to really shake things up. You've got nothing to lose if the polls show that you're going to lose, and so sometimes ads that are very, very negative that cross the line, are kind of desperation kinds of ads to try to save a sinking campaign.

>> Michael: Lob in a hand grenade and see what happens?

>> Bruce Merrill: That's where we get the cliché about throwing mud up against the wall and see if it sticks. You don't have anything to lose, you might as well throw it up there.

>> Michael: Now, how do voters respond to negative campaigns? I've heard two schools of thought. One is voters are turned off, don't want to participate in the process, stay home, don't vote for that race. I've also heard that perhaps that is not the case in terms of what the voter reaction is.

>> Bruce Merrill: Well, it used to be that we just thought that negative campaigning depressed turnout, but there is a lot of recent research that shows because negative campaigning creates so much attention in the media, that the media begins to cover it. As you know, I've probably had 25 calls from the media in the last week or so wanting to know about negative campaigning. So, when there's a lot of negative campaign ads in the system, it -- there is a lot of media coverage, and we know that increased media coverage increases turnout. But I think the key thing is we have to be careful. Just to talk about negative campaigning, there's so many circumstances you have to take into consideration. For instance, in this election, Janet Napolitano is obviously a woman. Is it more or less acceptable for a woman to do that? Culturally we know that it's not as acceptable for a woman to be aggressive, to be negative.

>> Michael: Right.

>> Bruce Merrill: On the other hand, even there, is it possible that there's a cultural value that says when women are attacked, particularly if it's perceived as unfairly, that we would rally around and protect her because she's a woman?

>> Michael: Right. Stronger, protective instinct coming out.

>> Bruce Merrill: Right. Exactly. My suspicion is that the Mohoney attacks on Janet Napolitano have backfired and probably are actually helping Janet Napolitano.

>> Michael: Speaking of polls, I understand we're going out with a poll this weekend?

>> Bruce Merrill: We're going out with a big one this weekend and kind of take a final look at the races, and interestingly on this one, we're really going to trying to measure this negativity. We're going to try to figure out how the public is reacting to it, what they think about it, and who specifically they think is being the most negative.

>> Michael: You know, Bruce, frequently you and I are compressed for time. We've got a little extra time tonight. There is a question that I am frequently asked, and I try to answer it, hopefully accurately so, but let me ask you. We've covered it before and make sure I'm giving the right answer. People ask me, how do you do your most likely to vote. What sort of criteria, how do we cull down from general populace to who we think is most likely to vote?

>> Bruce Merrill: That's a great question, Michael, because the one thing that no polster can predict accurately is who is actually going to go to the polls on election day. And depending on who goes and what the turnout is, you can get very different results from what the polls are showing. Now, to try to overcome that, we do come up with a category called "most likely to vote." There's two ways that that is generally done. One way is to only call people that have a proven record of having voted. In other words, people that have voted in the last two or three or four elections.

>> Michael: And in formulating the database, we can go in and say, all right, we know this person voted in the last primary and the last election.

>> Bruce Merrill: Yes, because the parties know how important this is. So they go down and find out who voted, and then they go back and put whether or not a person voted on their records. So we can draw a sample of proven voters. The problem with that, there is a lot of new people coming into Arizona, and they don't have a record, and we know that a lot of people that did vote previously won't in this election. So, again, you have the same problem. The other way that we do it, and the way that we do it with the KAET Walter Cronkite poll, we take a whole bunch of demographic and psychographic variables, things like education, how long people have lived here, how interested they are in politics, how closely they follow politics, their media viewing habits, all of which are related to turnout, and we build an index of people that have all of those characteristics that are highly identified with turnout, and then we look at what they tell us, and as you would suspect, the people that have a more -- a higher probability of voting, tend to be older people that have lived here longer, higher educated, more Republican voters.

>> Michael: Why don't we just say, gosh, are you going to vote this time around?

>> Bruce Merrill: You know why? When we ask people, for instance, after the primary, we did a survey, and we asked people, did you vote. Now, remember, 20% of the people voted, you know how many percentage of the people told us they voted?

>> Michael: Tell me.

>> Bruce Merrill: 80%. One of the things pollsters learn, you don't ask questions that -- you don't expect somebody to say I'm a bad citizen, I didn't vote. So you've got to be very careful with some of those questions.

>> Michael: All right, let's touch on a couple of other general subjects. The speculation continues, and we have talked about this one before, but it bears revisiting a couple weeks out. What sort of impact on other races, and for that matter, maybe other ballot issues, are the gaming propositions going have that are going to have in excess of $30 million behind them?

>> Bruce Merrill: Well, I think that's the first thing that people should be aware of, is that these three campaigns are going to spend around $30 million, and that says something about the stakes that are involved in terms of the money that gambling brings into the state or generates for the people that make profits on it. Again, Michael, it's not clear what's going to happen. It has the potential, because so much of that money was spent on media, that it would increase turnout. There is also the possibility that the tribal leaders would go out of their way to get their people to come to the polls and vote. If they really encourage them, and if they help them get to the polls, then you're going to have more native Americans vote, and so the turnout will be higher.

>> Michael: For example, a safe assumption would be that some portion of that $30 million will be devoted to TV efforts either in terms of early balloting or day-of balloting.

>> Bruce Merrill: Absolutely. And if the Native Americans are successful in delivering their people to the polls, in my opinion, that would tend to help Janet a little bit, because traditionally, Native Americans tend to vote -- they're lower socioeconomic people, less education, they tend to vote Democratic, more than they vote Republican, if they vote. Now, there is a problem called drop-off. One of the problems with the Indian gaming issues is when there's intense interest, there is some possibility that some of those people would vote on those issues, but then just not know enough, they just don't vote on anything else. My guess is, that the gaming issues will increase turnout a little bit, but not as much as people might think. I'm still looking at a 40% to 45% turnout on election day, which is less than half the registered voters, and realize that only about 70% to 75% of those eligible to vote, even register. We're talking about pretty low turnouts.

>> Michael: One of the things that I've been kicking around here the past week or so in my own mind is the possibility of a no-vote on all three gaming propositions. What do you think?

>> Bruce Merrill: Well, I think that it is possible. Number one, you have a core vote that's kind of the Christian right, the conservative Catholics, Mormonss and conservative Christians that constitutes about 25% of the Arizona registered voters. It's probably even a little higher than that among those most likely to vote. Those people are going to vote no.

>> Michael: All three?

>> Bruce Merrill: All three. So then you've got about two-thirds of the electorate that's got to vote either yes or no on those other issues. And so it is possible -- and remember, as you and I were talking earlier, that many of the campaigns are running against the other campaigns, say vote no on that one, the 200 people are saying don't vote for 201 or 202, the 202 people are saying don't vote for the 201 issue, and so there is a lot of negative campaigning there saying this is what's wrong with that proposition or that initiative, and so there is a lot going on. And then I think you were saying that you had people last few days that are now running campaigns in the media to say, don't vote for any of these.

>> Michael: That's right.

>> Bruce Merrill: So it will have an impact.

>> Michael: Bruce Merrill, good to chat. We'll go to the poll this weekend, and I believe we'll release results on Monday.

>> Bruce Merrill: Monday.

>> Michael: Okay, hey, thanks. Our ad watch series is available on the Web site, go to www.kaet.asu.edu., click on "Horizon." We also have summaries of the ballot propositions and other election information as well as the program schedule and transcripts of "Horizon."

>>> Michael: The adult literacy rate in the United States is 99%, and even here, it is an issue to which many have dedicated their lives. But the struggle for literacy is greater in developing countries. That is why a former Phoenix school teacher, Kae Robb, has dedicated her life to bringing books to the children of Central American. Producer Merry Lucero and videographer Ben Avechuco bring you her story.

>> Reporter: Imagine being a child of 8 or 10 years old, never in your life having seen a story book or having been read a story. That is what Kae Robb discovered in 1996 when visiting her daughter on a peace corps mission. She went to see a school teacher in Guatamala, where the adult literacy is only about 66%.

>> Kae Robb: He knew I was coming. We had planned this ahead of time, and he prepared for my visit by collecting a lot of local newspapers for several weeks ahead of time. And then he had each one of the students read an article, make a little summary of the article, and then practice presenting their summary.

>> Reporter: Newspapers filled with kidnappings, murders, crime and political corruption were the only reading materials the children had.

>> Kae Robb: That's probably when I knew that I needed to do something for that school. And so I resolved right then and there that I would send them books that were, you know, classics and that were wonderful and that were funny and delightful and they had wonderful vocabulary in it, and they were age appropriate, because I didn't think that reading about kidnappings when you are 8 years old was a particularly inspiring thing.

>> Reporter: Kae did it and realized she must do it a thousand times over. She also set up scholarships enabling selected students to continue to attend school, because if there is no money for school supplies or uniform, the child doesn't go to school. Most scholarships are about $25 a year.

>> Kae Robb: There's great pride in being a scholarship student. I mean, they know who the scholarship students are. It's "I'm a scholarship student," and once a year, they write a letter to their patron, the person sponsoring them and get their picture taken, and so they feel very special that somebody here cares about them enough to keep them in school.

>> Reporter: But her first love and greatest challenge, setting up children's book collections in schools and community libraries. She formed the nonprofit "books for a better world," purchasing Spanish-language books through donations and shipping them ahead. Then she takes them to rural schools in Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Honduras, mostly by hitching, hiking and riding buses.

>> Kae Robb: On a daily basis, the books are put in a backpack and delivered to schools one backpack at a time. We're up to -- by the end of this school year, we will have delivered over 8,000 books.

>> Reporter: And Kae doesn't just deliver the books, she reads them to the children and her love for books shines through. [ Reading in Spanish ]

>> Reporter: Kae's daughter Stephanie encourages her mom all the way.

>> Stephanie Goins: We have the opportunity to travel with her last year, last summer, and we went to one of the schools, and it happened to be one of the poorer schools with, you know, wooden sides and barely a roof, and to see her delivering the books and, you know, taking out the backpack and opening up the backpack and showing the books to the kids and really to see that their faces, it was just -- it was just amazing and seeing -- in there and given their environment, and given the poor conditions that they are living in, and they have these jewels that she brings for them.

>> Reporter: But during her quest to bring literature and literacy to children of these impoverished developing countries, Kae has been battling more than just illiteracy.

>> Kae Robb: In 1998, I was diagnosed with breast cancer, and so I went through the mastectomy and chemotherapy and the whole process. I really was faced with the question of what do I want to do with the rest of my life, however long that might be, and I'm hoping to grow up to be a little old lady, but I decided I wasn't afraid of dying, that ultimately wasn't my fear. My fear was that my life would be without great purpose, and that I would die with the music still in me.

>> Reporter: Kae vowed to press on, but on this summer's trip, to deliver 650 books to Nicaragua, Kae knew she needed help, so she brought her neighbor, high school student Shelby Boyle.

>> Reporter: Shelby gets the window seat.

>> Kae Robb: We've been practicing reading so that I'll do the introduction and I'll leave and let Shelby read, and then I'll go to the next classroom and talk to the children, so they'll get double whammy. And I think it's important that they hear my story and hear my passion for books, but it's equally important that they see somebody who is young who also has that same passion for books and who can speak the language.

>> Reporter: Shelby was in for the experience of a lifetime.

>> Shelby Boyle: Wow, what an opportunity to go do this. It's just amazing. It's something that most people in high school don't get to do. To see the poverty, actually to be immersed in that was extremely difficult. That made me realize how lucky that myself and my peers are. Actually being there and then coming back has changed me entirely. I need to do something, and it's not about me anymore. It's about other people and making other people's lives wonderful and bringing something to the table of life that I can contribute myself.

>> Kae Robb: I think it's probably the best trip I've ever had. I've traveled a lot alone. That's not too much fun, and I've traveled with other people, that was fun, but to have Shelby with me this time was just a whole new look and a whole new feel to it.

>> Reporter: One very unexpected and unfortunate surprise upon returning from this trip, Kae had a brain seizure.

>> Kae Robb: Metastasized breast cancer. I didn't see it coming, and I thought that I had dealt with the cancer, and I was sort of home free, but apparently that was not to be, but I'm still optimistic, I've got places to go and people to see and things to do, and I'll beat it.

>> Reporter: Knowing Kae, you believe it. And on this trip, even more was accomplished through a new partnership with another children's literacy organization based in Nicaragua. With the help of the local government, they set up colorful book corners that unlike the schools which tend to guard the books, allow the children to take the books off the shelves at will.

>> Kae Robb: The whole place is bright and colorful and filled with characters, and then the municipality also provides someone to be there from 3:00 to 6:00. It has nothing to do with school. The children can come on their own time. The books are all out there to touch and to see and to browse. It's the browsing kind of idea.

>> Reporter: That organization shares the special care Kae takes with choosing the books for content, making sure they don't contain references that are foreign and unattainable to the children who will read them. She looks for books with themes like sharing, friendship and overcoming adversity.

>> Kae Robb: And when I talk to them, I talk to them about how they can make a difference, too, and when I stand in front of a class of students, I tell them, you know, I don't know who is in this classroom, but I think, you know, in front of me, I see artists, and I see people who will be honest politicians, and I see people who will be loving parents, and I go through a list of different occupations, and I say every one of you has, you know, a special gift that you're here to give the world, and one of the ways that you'll be able to give it is by being a literate, educated person. It's a lot more than delivering books. It's empowering children and their teachers to be the very best that they can be and to change things that are changeable and for them to believe that they can do it and to give them some really good examples of other people and other places where things have been difficult and things have changed. So when I say "books for a better world," that's really 20 what I mean.

>> Michael: For more information on "Books for a Better World," you can link to their Web site from "Horizon's" Web site.

>> Tomorrow we'll take a closer look at the District 1 Congressional race between George Cordova and Rick Renzi.

>>> And Friday, as always, join us for the journalists' roundtable edition of "Horizon," discussing the week's political developments and top news stories.

>>> Thanks for joining us on this Wednesday. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one, good night.