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November 15, 2002

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
The Journalists Roundtable
In-Studio Guests:
Keven Willey, Editor of the Arizona Republic Editorial page;
Mark Flatten, Easy Valley Tribune;
Chip Scutari, Arizona Republic;
Howard Fischer, Capitol Media Services

>> Keven: It's Friday, November 15th, 2002. In the headlines this week, Janet Napolitano was officially declared Governor-elect and is now preparing for the transition of power. Final results show proposition 202 was narrowly approved which will continue Indian gaming in Arizona. State lawmakers are expected to return for a special session soon to deal with Arizona's budget crisis.

>> Good evening, I'm Keven Willey with the "The Arizona Republic," sitting in for Michael Grant. This is the journalists' round table. Joining me to discuss these and other stories are Mark Flatten, with the "East Valley Tribune," Howard Fischer, Capitol Media Services and Chip Scutari with "The Arizona Republic." We finally have a Governor, Mark, what was the margin?

>>Mark Flatten: It turned out to be not much but enough. We stopped paying attention to it when it got down to about 13,000 votes separating them and it was clear that Salmon could not catch up, which occurred Sunday very late when Maricopa County posted their almost final results. They still had a few cleanup ballots to get through. Salmon called a press conference in East Mesa and then Janet Napolitano called one in Phoenix. It was a wild night. That's where the numbers broke. Salmon had been holding out hope that there was this big block of 2 conservative voters whose ballots had not been cast, people who had early ballots and turned them in on election day. It became clearer and clearer as the late ballots were counted and released that the trend he was hoping for just wasn't going to show up.

>> Howard Fisher: In fact, we talked about that this last week on the show. The whole idea of he was picking up essentially a 10% margin over Janet in Maricopa County, and we kept saying you can't get there from here, you know, you can't make up half the gap. No, no, no, my people voted late.

>> Mark Flatten: When we were talking about last week, there was still 180,000 votes out there.

>> Keven: It was tempting to say that because the majority of the votes are Maricopa County, you are accustomed to thinking of them as a Republican margin and they were, but apparently not be enough.

>> Mark Flatten: If you want to know where Matt Salmon died it was in Maricopa County. He did as you would expect in the other areas. He did very well in rural areas where he overcame the registration Democrats tend to have in those counties. They are very conservative Democrats. He overcame the margin in half of the rural counties. He held close to the margin in Pima and got slaughtered in Maricopa.

>> Chip Scutari: That proves once again that Arizona voters are totally unpredictable and independent. We saw a Republican sweep across the United States and yet Massachusetts has a Republican Governor, and Maryland, and yet Janet Napolitano wins in Arizona.

>> Howard Fisher: What it also proves is the further down you go on the ticket, the more party registration matters. The two high profile races were the Governor and the attorney general. I realize technically the Secretary of State is second in line, but who knew? Well, gee, I'm for voter registration. I'm for voter registration, too. I'm for protecting consumers. So am I. That came down to pure voter edge.

>> Keven: How significant do you think was the Pima County turnout? They are a democratic county and they had a high turnout.

>> Howard Fisher: It helped Janet because you need to win big in Pima County to overcome whatever loss you have in Maricopa. Obviously Janet's holding as close as she did in Maricopa made the difference. Pima gave it that edge. I mean --

>> Mark Flatten: I think she finished within about 3 percentage points of Salmon in Maricopa County, and if you factor in the registration advantage, she, to use bookie parlance, beat the spread by about 12 points. She beat it in Pima by 7 points, and obviously you are dealing with a much smaller population base, about 60% of the voters in Arizona are Maricopa County voters.

>> Chip Scutari: And I think there was some other external factors which we talked about, one being all of the Indian gaming propositions helped Janet. If the legislature had solved that last session, all of that money wouldn't have been out there. And they wouldn't have registered a lot of Native Americans which probably went Janet's way. Richard Mahoney, the Independent candidate, totally imploded with his bizarre Colorado City ads. If he had run a more populist compain, he would have sucked more votes away from Janet. And then the third thing which we've all talked about in previous stories, the Jim Petersen effect on the election, you know, pumping in $2.4 million to the Democratic party which benefitted Janet. All of that played in her favor.

>> Keven: What's next for the Governor elect? She named a transition team, transition team chair people. Where does she go from here?

>> Chip Scutari: Right now she's off to Austin, Texas to get orientated as to how to be a good Governor.

>> Keven: They know about that in Austin, Texas?

>> Chip Scutari: Yes, supposedly. Her first big deal is meeting with legislative leaders who are much more conservative than she is and dealing with the whole billion dollare budget crisis. It's amazing to see how this works out. I mean, I don't think the general public realizes how conservative the legislature is, not just the legislature, but the leadership with Representative Farnsworth, Jake Flake, Senator Ken Bennett. If this crisis gets solved before June 30th, the end of the fiscal year, I'll be really, really surprised.

>> Mark Flatten: Maybe I'm being a little foolish, but I actually --

>>Chip Scutari: It wouldn't be the first time.

>> Mark Flatten: Thank you, Chip. I think they'll get along a lot better than most folks think they will for a couple of reasons. Despite all of the campaign rhetoric, Janet is not some flaming San Francisco liberal. She's pretty middle of the road. She's not a big tax and spend type. She ran a good -- she comes from that law enforcement background. So on a lot of the high profile issues, I think they are going to get along fairly well. When it comes down to the budget fight, most of her budget plan, if you take out the loopholes thing, most of her plan was identical to Salmon's.

>> Howard Fisher: One of the issues Mark and I were talking about in the press room earlier today is what she needs is some good lieutenant in the senate. Remember when Bruce Babbitt was Governor, he dealt with the Republican legislature. What he had was Alfredo Gutierrez to play dealmaker. It was Alfredo's grocery store, you want the votes, you need the Governor to sign something, you're going to deal. She needs somebody who is trusted on both sides. We were thinking that the two likely prospects are Herb Guenther, a Tacna Democrat, but clearly no flaming liberal.

>> Keven: You might explain where Tacna is.

>> Howard Fisher: Tacna is between Yuma and nowhere. Tacna is, if you go to I-10, there is a bar there, and that's about it.

>> Mark Flatten: Tacna is a place where they raided all the water and shipped it to Phoenix.

>>Howard Fisher: And then Jack Roberts from St. Johns, in Northeast Arizona, who also is no flaming liberal, who is liked by Republicans, who had been in leadership in the house in his days there. If somebody can make that role, it's going to have to be in the senate, because the House is filled with ideologues who lost to the Newt Gingrich right ring. They can make this work. Bruce Babbitt made it work. If Janet is smart and surrounds herself with good people and works closely with Democrats and Republicans in the legislature the way Bruce Babbitt did, she can make it work out.

>> Keven: Has she started to do that with the transition team? Who are some of the key players on the transition team?

>> Howard Fisher: Well, you've got Republicans there, but these are Republicans who supported her in the first place, people like Jack Jewitt and Chris Herstam. She is reaching out to the middle of the Republican party. What she's hoping for is a certain schism where the moderates of the party are looking at Eddie Farnsworth and Randy Graff, saying where are we going to go? And on certain issues perhaps, on those marginal issues, building those coalitions.

>> Mark Flatten: I talked to a number of the names we've mentioned here earlier this week, and what they are telling me is, you know, there is a lot of common ground here, and there are a lot of things that we're kind of optimistic we can work through. I think they are on board with the across-the-board budget cuts, saving education and prisons, I guess, is her platform. They don't have a problem with that. She talked about consolidating agencies, getting rid of duplication, looking at additional ways to cut the budget. I think what they are going to find is, you know, coming out of the fiery campaign, she may not be as hard to deal with as a lot of people -- and the legislature may not be as hard to deal with.

>> Keven: Before we leave this segment, I want to talk about the Corporation Commission. We have a corporation commissioner who was in court today. Howie was there with him. How did that go? What is the overriding import of it?

>> Howard Fisher: Well, Jim Irvin is a defendant in a civil lawsuit. He is being investigated by U.S. Attorney's office and County Attorney's office on charges he may have used his office to influence a merger. Now the Attorney General's office, not wanting to be left out, perhaps, is investigating whether he and his wife forged signatures on contribution forms for the clean elections. In order to qualify for clean elections funding for the Corporation Commission, which is $100,000, you have to gather 1500, $5 donations each from separate individuals who are registered to vote. There is some question now based on an investigation done, sort of as a peripheral issue to this whole Southwest Gas-Southern Union lawsuit that's playing out in federal court as to whether Jim Irvin and Carol Irvin forged some of these signatures. There are affidavits that the attorneys got that said in at least three cases, people whose signatures have turned up on it have said I did not give $5 to Jim Irvin, and I did not sign this form. Now we're in an interesting situation. Technically, even if the Clean Elections Commission were to determine that the forms were forged and he didn't qualify for the money, that doesn't overturn the election. He's still elected. But if he's convicted of a felony and there is precedent for this back when 2003 candidates were charged with felonies, then he would be --

>> Keven: What I want to know, is there a single prosecuting agency in the State of Arizona that is not looking at investigating Jim Irvin? >> Howard Fisher: I'm not sure if the U.S. Marshal's office has gotten involved yet.

>> Mark Flatten: Actually, tt would be funny if he gets a parking ticket he doesn't pay, then he could be investigated by every level of government, the feds, county, state and city. One of the ironic twists of all of this is another quirk in clean elections law. Apparently, as we understand it, if you forge signatures, they can't remove you from office. If you file a report late, they can. If it's too late and too big.

>> Howard Fisher: That gets to the larger issue, are we going to repeal clean elections. Voters in Massachusetts apparently decided to get rid of it. We're going to have that on the ballot. There is so much wrong with this system, the question is can it be fixed or is it going out the window?

>> Keven: Very quickly, With all of this against Jim Irvin, how did he win reelection?

>> Mark Flatten: He was a Republican.

>> Howard Fisher: He was a clean elections candidate and a Republican. The fact is Jim Walsh did not do such a great job of pointing out the guy's legal problems.

>> Keven: Let's shift to the legislature here. It appears that state lawmakers will return to the capitol later this month for a special session to deal with the budget crisis. Chip, what is the status of the special session at this point? Are they going to do it before Thanksgiving?

>> Chip Scutari: The plan is to do it the Monday before Thanksgiving, kind of a one-day cut of about $240 million out of the $500 million hole. Unlike Mark's optimism he expressed earlier in the segment, I don't agree with that. It's probably the one time I'm being more cynical than Mr. Flatten. 10 A lot of the stuff he talks about is low-hanging fruit. We'll consolidate, do this, do that. Last year we saw that it got sticky and tense and that's when we had a Republican Governor and that's when we had a rainy day fund and other accounting gimmicks. I just don't see -- I think there will be a lot of talk of bipartisanship in January, but by the end of January that will fizzle away. Janet made a prominent point about closing sales tax exemptions which she calls corporate loopholes. But Eddie Farnsworth, a Republican, says if you do that, they call it a tax hike. So they'll get this one-day special session done, but when January comes, I just don't see -- I'm not optimistic about a lot of bipartisanship.

>> Keven: What's the goal of a one-day special session? How much do they want to try to whack?

>> Chip Scutari: $240 million to whack half of the problem this year.

>> Mark Flatten: When you get to the tax end of Napolitano's proposal, that's off the table. She wants it on the table, but the Republican --

>> Keven: This year or next year?

>> Mark Flatten: Any year. The Republicans are not going to raise it. They need a two-thirds vote in both chambers to raise taxes. That's not going to happen. I'll tell you what I think a lot of conservatives are going to push for is to say we can't raise taxes, you want to protect 11 schools, let's take a look at some of these other agencies and see not just can we cut them but can we completely get rid of them. Starve the beast essentially.

>> Howard Fischer: That gets into other issues. Farnsworth will be back with his concurrent resolution to limit the size of government to inflation plus population growth. The real key there is what do you use as a base here. If you use this year as a base year when government is limping along, then you basically permanently cripple Governor. If you use 1999 as the base year, that gives more wiggle room there.

>> Chip Scutari: You know, I think that was called the taxpayer Bill of Rights in Colorado, and Colorado has a $700 million deficit, so that's not the panacea that conservatives are talking about. It hasn't worked in other states.

>> Howard Fischer: Eddie Farnsworth loves it.

>> Mark Flatten: It may work in other states. They may have a $700 million deficit to get under that cap. People think fine, if you are in hard times, you need to cut your budgets.

>> Keven Willey: Do you see any agencies biting the dust?

>> Howard Fischer: You mean the Governor's Office of Excellence that everybody is -- there will be consolidation. The question is, do you need a separate tourism office from the Department of Commerce? Now, if you talk to the Goldwater Institute, we shouldn't have an Office of Tourism. We probably shouldn't have a Department of Commerce. Heck, they probably think we shouldn't have a university, but they are off in their own little la-la land there. But there are questions of what is the basic role of government. The tricky part for conservatives is, for example, the constitution does not require a State Department of Environmental Quality. But the businesses, they want a DEQ, because if we don't have environmental laws here, we have to answer to the federal government and their laws in San Francisco. It's hard to say this isn't part of basic government, yet the business community wants local control.

>> Mark Flatten: If I worked for the State Commission on the Fine Arts, I would not take a 30-year mortgage out.

>> Keven: What about the impact on cities? They depend on state shared taxes. Do you expect them to be hit as hard or harder in some ways by the State?

>> Howard Fischer: This gets tricky, because revenue sharing, like a tax hike, would require two-thirds vote. There are enough people elected in enough different cities whose mayors call them up at three in the morning and say if you vote for this, I will make sure you are a one-term lawmaker. That does not mean you can't shift burdens and obligations to cities and counties, but in terms of cutting the revenue sharing, it's difficult.

>> Mark Flatten: For some reason, they are scared to death of touching revenue sharing. Everybody is. I don't know why. I don't know any Mayor that's going to cost the legislature their seat.

>> Chip Scutari: I think Janet said she wouldn't cut revenue sharing just like Matt Salmon wouldn't. It's a sacred ground for some reason.

>> Mark Flatten: That was part of the thing in the debates. They would get all hot and point their fingers, but what they were saying was not remarkably different aside from the loopholes business, which is a red herring anyway. The biggest component of her loophole closing is this sale on natural gas to Arizona power plants. Beyond that, she estimates that at $80 million, but beyond that it's chicken feed, it's the soap bottles you get at the hotel.

>> Howard Fischer: What you're really going to see is restructuring. All of the candidates, Democratic and Republican, agreed that we have a very high business personal property tax. Businesses pay tax every year on every typewriter, printing press, camera, and that's a disincentive to high tech firms that pay high wages. While you're not going to get the votes to simply raise other taxes, if in fact there is a tradeoff, if we can lower the business personal property tax and get rid of loopholes, then maybe you can cut a deal. It doesn't solve the budget problem.

>> Mark Flatten: You don't get into the two-thirds requirement. There are Republicans that are perfectly happy to look at the tax structure. If they do this loophole thing and lower the business personal property tax, Napolitano can say, I delivered on two of my promises and didn't raise your taxes.

>> Keven: Let's go on the table here real quick with some predictions. The first budget that Governor Napolitano receives, does she sign it or veto it?

>> Howard Fischer: You're forgetting the line-item in there.

>> Keven: That's true, she has an option.

>> Howard Fischer: The problem is as Chip points out, they will take the low-hanging fruit this time and then they still have another $250 million to cut. It isn't a question of budget but revenues at this point. I don't think there is going to be something in there she doesn't want to sign. The question is can we have the revenues to match it. If they send her a budget that the revenues don't match, what does she do?

>> Keven: You are saying line item?

>> Chip Scutari: I think there will be some line item in there if the revenues don't match.

>> Keven: Sign, veto, line item?

>> Mark Flatten: I say veto. Given the understanding that they cannot crack the school funding, and they know that going in, I think it will be a long process, but I think ultimately they'll reach an agreement and she'll sign it. >> Keven: Well, interesting. It sounds like it's going to be a very interesting year. 15 I'm kind of sorry that I'm going to be missing it.

>> Howard Fishcer: Well, to that point, as many of you know, today was Keven Willey's last day as the editorial page editor at "The Arizona Republic". After more than 20 years at the state's largest paper, Keven will take over the Editorial page at the "Dallas Morning News." That means she will no longer be a contributor to this fine show. Since Kevin has played a large part in the success of this program, "Horizon's" producers thought she shouldn't go away without a formal goodbye. So here are some of the people Keven has worked with or have been subjects of Keven's editorials saying, don't let the boot kick you on the way out of Arizona.

>> Howard Fischer: We all know that politicians have said that Keven Willey has a problem getting her facts right in her editorials. But Laurie Roberts who has known Keven from her days at "Associated Press" says that's a problem that goes way back.

>> Laurie Roberts: I think my favorite story about Keven stems from when she was a very young reporter. She worked for the "Associated Press" as an intern when "The Arizona Republic" was back at its old building. She worked in a cave-like office with no windows. One night she's there manning the wire, when a weather report comes over the machine, and she runs over to find out what's going on with the weather from the weather service and finds out that there are hail storms throughout state that have devastated crops across Arizona. Well, the reporter that she is, Keven raced to her PC. She fired up her machine. She banged out a story and she threw it out onto the wire to inform the people of the state about this amazing storm, and sat back and thought she had done a good job. And a little while later there is a radio guy calling saying, Keven, the weather is fine here, what's going on? Where is this bad weather? And she gets one or two more phone calls like that and begins to wonder where exactly is this devastating hail storm, and she goes back to the weather wire to further read this report. This time, though, Keven decides to read the header on the report, and it says "Arizona's weather report 100 years ago today." So hopefully the weather will be a little bit better in Texas for you, Keven.

>> Howard Fischer: When Steve Benson came to Arizona, he was a young conservative Mormon. Well, Keven Willie took over the editorial pages, and all that's changed.

>> Steve Benson: Keven, it's been a great five years. You've been my inspiration, my perspiration and my frustration. But like any good interview, you've provided that flurry of attention that has brought me to new heights and has helped me do new work. I can always remember you coming into my office saying that's lousy, you stay inside until you come up with something decent. This is a cartoon that she killed several months ago. 17 It shows the twin terrors, Osama Ben Falwell and Osama Ben Robertson. The reason she killed this cartoon is because there might be people out there who think that's what Osama Ben Falwell and Robertson wanted to do. I said what's the problem? But, Keven has been great as an editor. I remember when she came in, my first impression of her was and I told her this, Keven, you are anal retentive but in a good sort of way. And she is leaving us now anal retentive in a good sort of way, and she is going to Dallas. I was raised in Dallas. Boy, howdy, they won't know what hit them. I meam, you think Texas is flat now, just wait until she gets there. She's going to roll them. She's organized up the wazoo. She's systemized up to her eyeballs, programs, big vision, drive, drive, drive, and if we get a cartoon in once in a while, great.

>> Howard Fischer: If Keven Willie represents the left wing on Friday "Horizon" editions, we know who represents the right wing, Mark Flatten.

>> Mark Flatten: ou know, I found Keven to be one of the most frustrating people I've ever dealt with in Arizona, and it's not the trite editorials or the sophomoric conclusions that she draws; it's the fact that as hard as Howie and I tried to get a rise out of her, she just answers it with that schoolmarmish little grin of hers, which is terribly frustrating when your sole purpose is to rattle her and you can't rattle her.

>> Howard Fischer: ane Hull came into public life about the same time as Keven Willie. They both had a fairly meteoric rise in their career. And now Jane Hull is leaving the state. Is there any wonder that Kevin is doing the same?

>> Jane Hull: You know, I've known Keven for a long time, a really, really long time. She and I were both mere children when she came in to the legislature as an intern in 1979 or '80. I think she's been so kind to me in the past because she knows that we both know a lot of secrets from the legislature side, and I might share them with people if she's too bad to me. It's been a great friendship. We're going to miss her. I've really enjoyed watching her grow over the years. I know that she would really like to use the state plane, and I'd like to offer it to her to go to Texas. In fact, I'd like for her to take Steve Benson with her to go to Texas. In fact, she could take the whole TSA with her and go to Texas as far as I'm concerned. The only problem about the state plane is I have to go with it, and I'm going to stay here. Just one more thing I have to say, Keven, indeed I am going to miss you, but it's going to be so nice not do be sitting there, quietly having coffee with my husband, peacefully looking at the paper and have him say -- I won't say what he said, That Keven, look at the crap she put in about you today. So, Keven, we'll miss you. Take care and stay in touch.

>> Howard Fischer: After the election of the fab five, Kevin Willie said it was a great idea to have people with pink underwear running the state. Well, Sheriff Joe heard about it and he took it too far.

>> Joe Arpaio: Keven, I don't know if you need any help, but I'll be glad to help you pack your bags as you head for Texas. Really, let me tell you something, I'll never forget 1992 when I was running for sheriff against the incumbent, and we had lunch and you called me a gadfly. I still don't know what that means, but I'm sure they won't call me a gadfly over at the paper you are going to because they already did a big profile on me, and it was a nice one, not like the one "The Arizona Republic" does. We'll miss you. You did a lot for the state. You did a lot for the newspaper. Arizona's loss will be Texas gain. I want to wish you good. You did a lot, a lot, for this State, regardless of the criticism by some of your peers. You know, they ought to look at themselves instead of blasting you, especially cartoonists who think they are experts or something. If he had any guts, Benson would do a nice cartoon on you. But I don't think it would be nice. He doesn't know how to do nice things. But anyway, other than that, have a nice trip. I hope one day, one day you come back home with your husband who is a great guy, come back home, and I hope I'll still be around.

>>Howard Fischer: Well, and if you thought you were getting away without a comment from me, I just want to let you know what a great job you did turning "The Republic" from a conservative newspaper, into a paper whose editorial policy closely matches that of "The Arizona Daily Red Star." We're all going to miss you. The folks at "Horizon" put together a little plaque here because we don't want you to forget the time you spent on the show, hosting it, sitting on this side of it saying a few words of wisdom and adding to the great discussion we've had around here.

>> Keven: Thank you, guys, it's been great. I love it, and I'm looking forward to the future.

>> Howard Fischer: We'll see if we can get you on by satellite from Dallas. What's your first change in the editorial policy of the Dallas paper going to be?

>> Keven Willey: I don't think we're going to make any major changes right away. I've got a lot to learn about Texas, and we'll do some of that first, but I've had a fabulous time in Arizona. I want to thank each one of you, particularly those who have skewered me from time to time. It's been fun and made life interesting. I'm very much looking forward to the future.

>> Howard Fischer: And we're sending you their way.

>> Keven: That would be good. Thank you very much. That wraps it up for this evening on "Horizon." We're out of time. Oh, my goodness. Have an incredibly good weekend. I'm Keven Willey. Good night.