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December 27, 2002

Host: Michael Grant
Topics:
The "Journalists' Roundtable"
In-Studio Guests:
Howie Fischer, "Capitol Media Services;"
Mark Flatten, "East Valley Tribune;"
Doug MacEachern, "The Arizona Republic;"

Keven Willey, formerly of "The Arizona Republic" now with the "Dallas Morning News"

>> Michael: Good evening and welcome to a special edition of "Horizon." This is our annual year-end prediction show. Over the course of the next half hour, our panel members will try to predict what will happen in 2003. Among the issues we'll be discussing is who will become the next Mayor of Phoenix, replacing Skip Rimsza and how many days will the new session of the Arizona legislature last. Before we begin our look at 2003, we need to review how well our panel did last year predicting what would happen in 2002. Producer Steve Clawson looks at the winners and losers.

>> Reporter: 2002 was a big year for election predictions. The biggest question was who would be elected Governor. When it came to the winner of the democratic primary, all of our panelists correctly predicted Attorney General Janet Napolitano would be it. In the Republican primary, Howie and Mark agreed that former congressman Matt Salmon would win; however, Keven went out on a limb for her prediction.

>> Keven Willey: I think Betsey Bayless could be the sleeper in this race. Certainly going forward there is a lot of conventional wisdom going on Matt Salmon, that makes a certain amount of sense, but if these guys are picking Matt Salmon, I'll go with Betsey Bayless.

>> Reporter: However, when it came time to predict the eventual winner, Keven was correct in predicting that Janet Napolitano would be the next Governor of Arizona. Howie also picked Janet Napolitano, but Mark Flatten didn't.

>> Mark Flatten: I think it's Salmon's to lose at this point, partly because of the Mahoney factor.

>> Michael: Is that a prediction?

>> Mark: Sure, why not.

>> Reporter: As for the attorney general's race, once again, two panelists got it right, one got it wrong.

>> Howard Fischer: I think the edge has to go to Terry Goddard based on name I.D.

>> Mark: I think Goddard if he plays his cards right will probably win that race, probably by a bigger margin than the other races.

>> Keven: I'm having a hard time talking myself into this, but I could see that he's very smart, very vivacious. Again -- I don't know, I guess I'll go with Dennis Burke.

>> Reporter when it came time to predict the Republican-Democratic split in the state senate, only Howie got it right.

>> Howard:There are Republicans who think they can get 18, 19 seats out of it. I'm going to say 17-13.

>> Keven: I think it'll be 16-14 Republican in the senate. I'm sort of flipping a coin here because we don't know the candidates or anything yet. I'm thinking it'll be pretty close.

>> Mark: I think it's probably right around 18-12 split, largely because of the way the districts are drawn up.

>> Reporter: On the gaming situation, both Keven and Howie correctly predicted there would be multiple ballot propositions. Mark however had faith that the legislature would solve it preventing it from going to the ballot. For the second year in a row panelists were asked to select where the new Arizona Cardinals football stadium would be built. Let's just say no one picked Glendale. When it came to the long shot prediction, our panel did pretty well.

>> Keven: My long shot, I guess is we will sadly be looking for Osama bin Laden next year at this time.

>> Howard: Long shot, we will have five Republicans elected to the Arizona Corporation Commission when we add the two new seats.

>> Mark: I think it's very likely John Shadegg will be the first congressman in Arizona to be in a leadership post since John Rhodes.

>> Reporter: Now it's time to crown a winner. Both Keven and Mark finished with 6 right and 6 wrong. Howie wins this year's contest with a record of 9 and 3. Oh, by the way, there was another issue everyone agreed on. It dealt with the question of whether the Arizona Supreme Court would rule Tempe Mayor Giuliano was serving a two-year term or four-year term and whether he would be in office at this time.

>> Keven: I don't really have insight into the court here, but I'm thinking the court will stick with the two-year term, so no, he will not be.

>> Howard: I think they are going to say it's a two-year term and the change that the Tempe voters approved on the four-year term did not take effect.

>> Mark: The court really has no reason to, you know, make a stretch here. Why not just say, you know, let's read the law for what it says and that means Neil's gone.

>> Reporter: Since everyone agreed there would be a new Mayor in Tempe, let's find out who is sitting in the chair these days.

>> Mayor Giuliano: Hi, Howie, Keven, Mark. Guess what, I'm still the Mayor of Tempe. Thanks to the predictions.

>> Michael: Joining me here in studio are three of the best prognosticators on television besides the infamous psychic Miss Cleo. Well, not really, but we had to get somebody to make predictions. Before we introduce our panel members in studio, we would like to welcome back former "Horizon" regular Keven Willey who recently left Arizona to take a job with the "Dallas Morning News." Keven is the defending prediction champion. Joining me in studio are Howie Fischer with "Capitol Media Services," Mark Flatten from the "East Valley Tribune" and Doug MacEachern with "The Arizona Republic." Keven, glad you could join us.

>> Keven: Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here. It's nice of you to invite me to join you one last time.

>> Michael: Congratulations incidentally on your win in that prediction marathon. I know you guys are always sweating that all year long as to whether or not you'll win. Neil Giuliano seemed a little upset that you guys indicated that he was no longer going to be Mayor.

>> Keven: I love that he came back with that. That was great. Actually, to tell you the truth, most of us can't remember what we predicted. So it's hard to know coming into this show whether we've won, lost or somewhere in the middle.

>> Michael: Incidentally, give us a fast update on how are things in "big D." How are you settling in? Those kinds of things.

>> Keven: Things are great in "big D." The weather has been wonderful here. It's about 70 degrees and sunny. Too windy for my preference, but we'll get used to it. Politics here are fascinating. I'm hear to tell you Arizona does not have a monopoly on bizarre politics. And there is some very interesting issues. Some of them very similar to Arizona, like smoking bans and air pollution, and others have been very different.

>> Michael: Well, incidentally, we'll let you go because we've got to get into the important business of making predictions, but do you have any advice for your successor, Doug MacEachern, on the predictions panel?

>> Keven: Well, I guess the only advice I've come up with, Doug, is to have fun with it. It's pretty boring if everybody predicts the same thing, so make a mark for yourself, and you know, have a good time doing it. And hey, you've got all of my confidence.

>> Michael: All right, Keven. Hey, listen, don't be a stranger. Good to see you again, and happy holiday.

>> Keven: Happy holidays to all of you. Thank you.

>> Michael: All right, you guys. That was nice to see Keven again. She looks very nice.

>> Howard: Yes, and proof once again that people keep tuning into this show with or without Keven, with Doug, with Mark and I and thinking we have some insight into what's going on out there.

>> Mark: Of course the difference between us and Miss Cleo, we don't have to refund $5 million.

>> Michael: That's right. Doug, since you're the new guy on the block, I'm going to start with you. 2003, Phoenix Mayor's race. First off, who do you think is going to run?

>> Doug: Well, it's starting to get to be kind of a crowded field. I think Randy Pullen has just made an indication that he might run. Peggy Billstein is a city council member. Phil Gordon another city council member. Trent Lott has got his hat in the act, but Cody Williams, former city council member. I think the list will grow a little bit.

>> Michael: All right. Now, who is going to win it. Who will be Phoenix Mayor?

>> Doug: This time next year, Phil Gordon.

>> Michael: All right, Howie, Who is going to run? Who is going to win.

>> Howard: I like the list that Doug came up with. Part of the problem that happens is you'll find, particularly in city politics, all of a sudden, someone will develop some base of support, some neighborhood activist sometimes. I think that Phil has got the edge, but Peggy knows how to generate some ink. She knows how to build some political alliances. I think it's going to be very close. But I think Phil has the edge at this point.

>> Michael: Cody Williams toss his hat in or not?

>> Howard: I think he explores it and decides that perhaps this is not the time and that he doesn't have the base of support to build the kind of money that he needs to run that kind of race.

>> Michael: Mark, that slate of candidates okay by you, and if so, who is the next Mayor of Phoenix?

>> Mark: Well, understand, as we just found out, I couldn't tell you who my Mayor of the town I live in would be this year, so much less a town I don't live in next year. As far as I know the list Doug's got, I'll defer to his judgment. Phil Gordon also sounds like a perfectly good pick to me, although I could go out on a limb and say Mayor Giuliano will move over to Phoenix and become Mayor there.

>> Michael: No, we need to come up with new and creative faux pas. Another two-part question on Senator John McCain. Will he announce in 2003 that he is running for senate in 2004 or running for president in 2004?

>> Mark: He will be running for the United States senate in 2004. I don't think he's got any -- I think he's got the presidential bug probably chased out of his system by reality. He's not going to run against Bush. He's not going to jump parties. He's not going to run into the presidential race again. I think he took his shot. He ran a good race, and he just didn't win. The bigger question is whether or not he will be running for the senate again. And there is a lot of second tier politicians hoping he won't. I think he will. I think the big fact will be his health. He's had some health problems. But I saw him a couple of weeks ago, and he looks better than I've seen him look in a year.

>> Michael: Howie, senate, presidency or maybe none of the above?

>> Howard: I think the presidency is off the table, unless somehow Bush is politically wounded and becomes not viable. He will not run against George Bush. There is no upside to that. I mean, as much as McCain considers himself an outsider and not beholden to the party, he would not go against a sitting incumbent. The senate, I don't know, I guess John has a lot of stuff still unresolved. As much as he thinks he's done on campaign finance, I think he believes that with another six years there, he's got items that he would like to accomplish, a legacy he would like to leave and leaving at this point makes no sense. I see an announcement. Does the announcement come by the time we tape this show next year as opposed to he's doing an exploratory committee, I don't know, but I think he's a candidate in 2004 for senate.

>> Michael: Of course, at that point -- well, at least in terms of the presidency issue, New Hampshire is six months -- or six weeks away or so. Doug, senate presidency, and here's another twist to this. There has been some talk, I'm not sure how idle, that maybe he might be considered as a vice presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket. Mix that in there if you want to.

>> Doug: I'm not buying that talk. Somehow, I just don't think so. President maybe, but no, honestly, I have some real insight about this. My wife recently dragged me on a home tour in central Phoenix that included his house. I went through his halls. They were filled with memorabilia of his presidential election, but it did not include my 2000 column that included writing about my mother voting for him. Based on that, I hereby predict that he will run for senate, not president.

>> Howard: I'm not sure I understand the nexus between your column and his presidential aspirations there.

>> Doug: You had to be there, Howie.

>> Michael: Let's shift to the Arizona legislature. It convenes. How long until it shuts down?

>> Howard: I think that with a freshman legislature, given that one-third of the legislature is people who haven't been there before, with the budgetary issues, even assuming they can deal with them in special session that may run concurrently or may not, I am guessing we're talking 120 to 130 days from January 13th. I don't see any way of doing this. Week of the 100th day was supposed to be under policy if not statute. It's going to take 120 days just to pull this together. The reason 120 becomes important, after the 120th day, the per diem allowance gets cut in half. I think that might finally send them home.

>> Michael: As a motivating factor, for scoring purposes incidentally, we'll do a plus or minus. Doug, what do you think? Is this a long drawn-out thing or do they get in there and knock the budget ball out of the ballpark and go home?

>> Doug: Mike, I think the recipe is perfect for a record-setting session. 150 days I don't think is out of the question. I think that everything focuses around the budget, but all of those super short sessions that they had in years past were predicated on fact that they had lots of money and they weren't going to fight to the death over cutting programs or possibly raising taxes, which I don't think they'll do. But, so I think they'll set a record, 150 days.

>> Michael: Mark, what do you think?

>> Mark: I'll come somewhere in between. There is an upside and a downside to not having much money. The upside is you don't really fight about a lot of other things, because there is just no money for all of these little pet programs that tend to draw things out. So that works in their favor. Working against them is coming down to the last little nitty-gritty, the last few programs, the issues of layoffs, things like that when the real pain starts. They've done all of their little smoke and mirrors, and now they will have to start doing some things. So, I'm going to come down in between Howie and Doug. I think it'll be a long one. I don't think that it'll be record setting by any means. I think they'll have a budget I don't know, probably in a 130-day range.

>> Michael: Now, speaking of pain, do Republicans -- are the budget difficulties so painful that Republicans break their pledge not to raise taxes?

>> Mark: No, sir. They ran on that pledge, and they are committed to it. They -- I don't even know that there's going be a lot of pressure on them to raise taxes. And I don't think they are going to do this little magic closing loopholes kind of thing. You need -- what is it? A two-thirds to raise --

>> Michael: You need two-thirds.

>> Mark: They need that to raise taxes. They will not get that. Fundamentally, there are not that many votes there to raise taxes. I don't know that Napolitano is really the traditional tax and spend Democrat that a lot of people think she is. I don't think she wants to raise taxes any more than they do. But, no, I don't think they are going to back down on that pledge.

>> Michael: Doug, you already touched on it just a couple of minutes ago. You don't think they are going to raise taxes?

>> Doug: No, I don't. I think that as Mark said, they have a mandate that most of them ran on that they wouldn't raise taxes. I think that if Janet had given more of an indication during the campaign that she thought this was a vital thing to do that you would have a bitter fight about it, but I don't think you will have a tremendous fight this time. I think the fight will come, but I don't think it's going to happen this year.

>> Howard: I think what you'll end up seeing is at best the restructuring of the taxes, not for the balance of '03, but a revenue neutral proposal which doesn't require the two-thirds vote. In other words, if in fact you tax more items under the sales tax and reduce the sales tax from 5.6 to 5.4, 5.3, somehow draw on the property tax base, you might be able to do that. That's the best-case scenario because you don't need the two-thirds vote. The only other possibility for discussing the taxes would be to put something on the ballot, take students first, the whole issue that we absorb the requirement to build schools from the local districts to the state, never add additional revenues, lawmakers might be able to put on the ballot or have a separate sales tax for that. They are not going to do that themselves.

>> Mark: There is one other dynamic that I think argues against the tax increase. There's a lot of the conservative Republicans from this neck of the woods who don't necessarily see a budget crisis as a bad thing. They've got a serious starve-the-beast mentality and their view is every 10 years or so when we have these troughs in the economic cycle, that's when you go in and look at what the state is doing and decide, you know, in the fat times it's easy to say throw money at that, throw money at that. A lot of them philosophically like to go back in and say, we shouldn't be in this at all, and I think they see this as that opportunity.

>> Michael: So is the budget glass half empty or half full?

>> Mark: It's not nearly as empty as it will be.

>> Howard: And the better prediction is which state agencies won't be around, which state services.

>> Michael: I'll believe that when I see it.

>> Howard: Well, obviously, we know that the Governor's Office for Excellence is going. That was Janet's cheap shot during the campaign. Are they willing to cut back the Department of Commerce so that you don't have all of these office of rural affairs or the Office of Tourism. That's where it's going to get interesting.

>> Michael: Gubernatorial- legislative relations, Doug, Janet Napolitano, Will she set a new veto record next year since she is facing a Republican dominated legislature?

>> Doug: Well, you know, I detect a trend, and thus far my trends have been rather extreme. I'm going to back off a little bit and I will say that, yes, Janet will have a goodly number of vetoes. The recipe is there, too, because there are a lot of freshmen legislators there feeling their oats and they will be sending up all sorts of nutty bills, but I think Janet will approach Babbitt's record, but not -- I think it'll fall short.

>> Michael: Mark, what do you think?

>> Mark: I don't think she will approach a record. Again, in part because with the budget problem so much on the table, a lot of these nutty bills that we all know are coming probably won't go anywhere. I don't think they want to focus on them. I think they want to go in, take care of business and go home. That doesn't leave a lot of opportunity to veto some of this nonsense legislation.

>> Michael: Actually, Howie, we've had a Republican Governor, Republican controlled legislature, and Jane Hull has vetoed a lot. How do you think Janet Napolitano is going to do?

>> Howard: Clearly the lawmakers, and particularly the House Republicans, the new conservative majority, wants to test. Everybody wants to see is Janet going to be as tough as she claims she's going to be. Is she willing to veto us. I think there'll be early bills, early vetoes, then everyone will settle down and say okay, we can waste time sending bills we know will be vetoed or we can go ahead and deal with the business of the state. I think that even as crazy as some of the house passed bills may end up being, the senate, even though it's back in Republican hands, there is a pragmatism that has always existed in the senate that has never existed in the house. Ken Bennett is no idealogue. When you head the State Board of Education, you have to deal with the realities that are there. And people like Tim Bee, they recognize that you have got to have some consensus here to get us out of it. So I don't see any record number of vetoes.

>> Michael: Resist the notion here, Mark, to say "none." What will be the single big issue at the legislature other than the budget?

>> Mark: None.

>> Michael: Thank you.

>> Mark: I don't know. Students first is, you know, going to have to be solved in some way, but again, that goes back to the budget. You'll have serious transportation issues coming up, but again, that goes back to the budget. So there are not a lot of issues that will stray too far from the budget line. I don't think you're going have a lot of social change type issues that are going to dominate the session.

>> Michael: Yeah, what about the social agenda? Do we see new abortion legislation, Doug, or some other subject sans budget?

>> Doug: It's hard to predict which ones will be there, but I'm going to stay my course on this one. And I'm going to predict that yes, I think that there will be -- there will be a fair number of social issues, particularly sponsored by a lot of the new East Valley freshman Republicans.

>> Michael: Howie?

>> Howard: I think the issues will be there, and they'll get out of committee and maybe out of the House, because you've got people in leadership, but they don't go anywhere. They don't develop traction. Students first I think is the other big issue.

>> Michael: They can distract, a lot though, regardless of the traction.

>> Howard: You've got -- I'm not sure what they're calling it this year, I think it's a property rights committee. There's always in the House a black helicopter committee, where they throw all the nut case lawmakers and all the nut case bills, and they go there and rant and rave and put out the bills, chlorofluorocarbons, you know, making them legal in Arizona, is a perfect example of that.

>> Doug: Well, Howie, they didn't go anywhere in a split senate, but they don't have that anymore.

>> Howard: But the fact is, even in the senate, there has always been a working together. They recognize that since they don't have a veto proof majority and that they have a Democratic Governor, all of the days that you remember when Bruce Babbitt was up there, they recognize they have to work with them.

>> Mark: I think if there is a nonbudget issue that emerges, and I'm not saying I think there will be, but I think there is going to be a big push to fundamentally reform a lot of the stuff in the whole education arena. They have been throwing a lot of money at the schools, and a lot of the conservatives are saying, you know, we're still not getting results, we're just throwing money. We need to go in and fundamentally rethink how we do some of this stuff. But again that keeps going back to the budget.

>> Michael: Incidentally, those choppers use global positioning satellite technology.

>> Howard: No doubt done by Honeywell.

>> Michael: That's right.

>> Howard: I knew there was a Valley angle here.

>> Michael: Will Jim Irvin be Corporation Commissioner this time next year?

>> Howard: That's a little more difficult. I believe that the county attorney at some point will try to bring criminal charges, but given how fast these things move, it could be that nothing will be resolved by that point. There have been, as you know by now, given what happened earlier this month, some calls for him to quote, do the right thing, including from Governor Jane Hull. I don't see him resigning. That's not in his interest. There is no reason for him to resign. He then even gives up the possibility of a state paid defense for any appeal that he wants. I don't see him quitting. I think if there are charges, I don't see any of that being resolved by the time we're sitting around this table next year.

>> Michael: Mark, what do you think?

>> Mark: I agree with Howie. I don't see him quitting, even if there is a criminal charge brought. I don't see it playing through the court system by the end. That leaves the only viable option to be impeachment. I don't see that happening. After what happened with Symington, I don't think they are in any mood, particularly after what happened with Mecham where he ended up getting acquitted, I don't think they are in the mood to second guess court system in any big hurry.

>> Michael: Doug, Jim Irvin still around this time next year?

>> Doug: You know, Mike, a jury said that he should pay $60 million for what he did. And not him personally, I don't believe, but the taxpayers could conceivably be on the hook for that, assuming it's not appealed and thrown out, but that's a lot of money, especially in the face of such deficits. I don't think that the legislature will look kindly on it. I predict, Howie --

>> Howard: Are you going off on one of your tangents again?

>> Doug: I'm just living large. I predict impeachment.

>> Howard: I don't see it. Let me correct one technical thing. The state law, while it does pay for actual compensatory damages, punititive damages cannot be paid by the taxpayers, so the $60 million, he's got to take it out of his own pocket.

>> Mark: He needs the job.

>> Doug: As I understand from his attorney, they are still weighing whether or not they will seek indemnification from the state.

>> Howard: It's prohibited by law.

>> Michael: What's the prediction?

>> Michael: Hey, we're almost out of time. We've got to get about three more in. I want to do a football question, mostly for Mark. Mark, let me tell you the teams that are actually in the game. It's Miami and Ohio state playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Who do you think is going to win?

>> Mark: I'll say Ohio State, why not.

>> Michael: That's almost as nutty as a some of Doug's predictions.

>> Howard: I want to say Syracuse University, go orange, but never mind, my alma mater. I think Miami is going to be almost impossible to beat.

>> Michael: All right, Doug, what do you think?

>> Doug: Miami, runaway.

>> Michael: I think you may be right. When does ground break on the Cardinals football stadium?

>> Doug: I believe it might break ground next month, in January.

>> Michael: Okay. Howie?

>> Howard: March. I don't know. Who knows on these things? How many years have we been talking about the stadium on this show? Where is it going to go, who is going to sue, and does John Long have something else up his sleeve.

>> Michael: Couldn't even get the location right.

>> Mark: I'll split it and say February, why not.

>> Michael: Almost out of time. A long shot prediction and a sure shot prediction.

>> Howard: Well, the sure shot getting back to John McCain, much to the chagrin of the liberal northeastern media, he will not leave the Republican party. The long shot is by this time next year there will be adequate signatures collected to put clean elections on the ballot.

>> Michael: Doug?

>> Doug: My long shot is that I see Phoenix -- the City of Phoenix getting some sort of funding package through the legislature for the Civic Plaza construction.

>> Michael: Okay. Sure shot.

>> Doug: Sure shot, a Democratic presidential hopeful will host Saturday Night Live.

>> Michael: Long shot.

>> Howard: Long shot, despite the budget problems, the legislature will approve jobless benefits increases next year. Sure shot, Janet Napolitano in her State of the State will wear something red or purple.

>> Michael: Panelists, I'm feeling good about this set of predictions. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for joining us and happy holidays. I'm Michael Grant. Have a good one. Good night.