 | Visit the Horizonte Web site |
Cronkite-Eight Poll |
FOR INFORMATION: Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill at (602) 618-1320 or Dr. Tara Blanc at (602) 524-6392 EMBARGOED UNTIL 7 P.M. August 19, 2008 • McCain maintains lead in his home state
• High undecided vote with two months to go before the
election
• Both candidates’ supporters feel strongly about their
choice
• Significant anti-Obama vote found in Arizona
• One-third of voters see both candidates as running
negative campaigns
TEMPE, Ariz. ––Republican Sen. John McCain
continues to lead Democratic challenger Sen. Barack Obama by 10 percentage
points in Arizona, according to a new Cronkite/Eight Poll conducted August
14-16. The statewide poll of 402 registered voters found that 40 percent
support McCain, 30 percent favor Obama, 2 percent support independent candidate
Ralph Nader and less than 1 percent will vote for Libertarian candidate Bob
Barr. Twenty-eight percent were undecided. The undecided vote is surprisingly high for this late in the
campaign; however, those who have made up their mind feel strongly about their
decision. Seventy-four percent of McCain’s supporters and 80 percent of Obama’s
supporters say they feel very strongly about their choice. The poll also found that almost one-third (30 percent) of
those supporting McCain said they were voting against Obama rather than
supporting McCain. Sixteen percent of Obama’s supporters said they were voting
against McCain rather than for Obama. About one-third of Arizona voters said both candidates were
running negative campaigns, with more voters perceiving McCain as running a
negative campaign (38 percent) than Obama (26 percent). According to poll director, Dr. Bruce Merrill, “McCain
continues to lead Obama by about 10 percentage points but with an unusually
high 28 percent of the voters still undecided. McCain maintains his lead in
Arizona mainly because evangelicals and conservative Democrats are
disproportionately supporting him. The McCain campaign also appears to have
successfully created a fairly strong anti-Obama sentiment in the state. It will
be interesting to see if the Obama campaign chooses to campaign heavily in
Arizona. Voter turnout also will be an important factor in the final outcome of
this contest. Polls are not very good at determining who will and will not
vote. A higher turnout will probably help Obama more than McCain. Another
factor will be whether the Latino vote in Arizona turns out in significant
numbers.” The
Cronkite/Eight Poll also found that almost three-fourths (72 percent) of all
registered voters said they would favor reducing the work week in governmental
state and local governmental agencies from five to four days and extending the
hours that offices are open. Support for the proposal was found across all
political and demographic groups. The statewide telephone poll of 402 registered voters was
conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at
Arizona State University and Eight/KAET-TV. The survey has a sampling error of
plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The sample was 39 percent Republican, 33
percent Democrat and 29 percent Independents. Fifty-six percent of the
interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 19 percent in Pima County and 25
percent in Arizona’s other counties. Forty-seven percent of the voters
interviewed are men and 53 percent are women. Salt River Project and The Summit Consulting Group, Inc.,
provided funding for this survey as a public service. Cronkite/Eight Poll results are located on the Eight Web
site at www.azpbs.org. Question wording: First, we would like to know who you will probably vote for
in the upcoming presidential election in November. Will you probably vote for
Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Robert Barr or
Independent Ralph Nader? McCain 40% Obama 30% Nader 2% Barr * Undecided 28%
ASK ONLY IF WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN: Would you say you feel
very strongly about your support for John McCain or not very strongly? Very
strongly 74% Not
very strongly 25% Don’t
know/no opinion 1% ASK ONLY IF WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN: Would you say you are
voting more for McCain or more against Obama? More
for McCain 60% More
against Obama 30% Don’t
know/no opinion 10% ASK ONLY IF WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA: Would you say you feel very
strongly about your support for Barack Obama or not very strongly? Very
strongly 80% Not
very strongly 15% Don’t
know/no opinion 5% ASK ONLY IF WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA: Would you say you are
voting more for Obama or more against McCain? More
for Obama 76% More
against McCain 16% Don’t
know/no opinion 8% Thinking about the campaign that John McCain is running
against Barack Obama, would you say that he is running a very positive
campaign, a positive campaign, a negative campaign or a very negative campaign? Very
positive campaign 7% Positive
campaign 41% Negative
campaign 26% Very
negative campaign 12% Don’t
know/no opinion 14% Thinking about the campaign that Barack Obama is running
against John McCain, would you say that he is running a very positive campaign,
a positive campaign, a negative campaign or a very negative campaign? Very
positive campaign 11% Positive
campaign 46% Negative
campaign 20% Very
negative campaign 6% Don’t
know/no opinion 17% Now, on a different topic, some state, county and local
government agencies in Arizona are considering going from a five day to a four
day work week and extending the hours on the four days that these offices are
open. In general, would you tend to favor or oppose this idea? Favor 73% Oppose 16% Don’t
know/no opinion 11% |
