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Cronkite-Eight Poll

FOR INFORMATION:

Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill at 602-618-1320
or Dr. Tara Blanc at 602-524-6392

EMBARGOED UNTIL 7 P.M. JUNE 24, 2008

MCCAIN LEADS IN HOME STATE, BUT MANY UNDECIDED;

CLINTON COULD HURT RATHER THAN HELP OBAMA IN ARIZONA;

VOTERS BLAME LEGISLATURE FOR IMPASSE OVER BUDGET

TEMPE, Ariz.  - Putting Sen. Hillary Clinton on the ticket as his vice-presidential running mate could cost Sen. Barack Obama about 5 percentage points in Arizona, according to a new statewide Cronkite/Eight Poll conducted among registered voters June 20-21, 2008. When asked whether they would vote for Sen. John McCain or Obama, 38 percent said they would vote for McCain and 28 percent said they would vote for Obama 34 percent were undecided. When asked whether they would vote for McCain or an Obama/Clinton ticket, 47 percent said they would support McCain and 32 percent said they would choose the Obama/Clinton ticket 21 percent were undecided.

According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, “Sen. McCain probably leads in Arizona by about 10 percentage points and will be hard to beat in his home state. He divides the independent vote in Arizona with Obama but appears to be attracting conservative Democrats to his campaign. There is an unusually high undecided vote but that is probably due to the fact that Democrats are still trying to sort out how they feel about the intense primary battle between Obama and Clinton. The poll also found that as expected, younger voters are voting heavily for Obama, while older voters strongly prefer McCain. No gender gap was found in Arizona, with women about evenly divided between the two presidential candidates.”

The Cronkite/Eight poll also found that most voters blame the legislature for the current impasse over the state budget. More than one-half of those interviewed (52 percent) said that the Legislature was to blame for the impasse, 19 percent said it was the governor’s fault, 13 percent said both were to blame, and 16 percent didn’t really know who was to blame.

The telephone poll of 350 registered voters in Arizona was conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET-TV. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 percent. The sampling error for the split samples, one with Clinton included and one without Clinton, is plus or minus 7.4 percent. The sample was 40 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 26 percent Independents. Fifty-eight percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 18 percent in Pima County and 24 percent in the less populated counties. Forty-eight percent of the voters interviewed were men and 52 percent were women.

Question wording and results:

1. First, we would like to know who you will probably vote for president this November.
(ASKED OF A RANDOM SAMPLE OF ONE-HALF OF THE RESPONDENTS): Will you probably vote for John McCain or Barack Obama?

McCain 38%
Obama 28%
undecided  34%

(ASKED OF A RANDOM SAMPLE OF ONE-HALF OF THE RESPONDENTS): If John McCain runs against an Obama/Clinton ticket with Barack Obama running for president and Hillary Clinton for vice-president, will you probably vote for McCain or an Obama/Clinton ticket?

McCain 47%
Obama/Clinton ticket 32%
undecided 21%

(COMBINED RESULTS FROM ALL RESPONDENTS FROM ABOVE TWO QUESTIONS):

McCain  42%
Obama 31%
undecided 27%

2. ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS: If Arizona state government shuts down because the governor and the state legislature cannot agree on the budget, who do you think is most responsible for the impasse – the governor or the state legislature?  

state Legislature        52%
governor  19%
both equally 13%
don’t know/no opinion 16%