Cronkite-Eight Poll

Kyl continues lead over Pederson;
Governor Napolitano is heavy favorite against Republican challengers;
Arizonans support initiative measures that “crack down” on illegal immigration;
Initiative to ban same-sex marriages lacks support

TEMPE, Ariz. – With only two months to go before the November elections, former state Democratic chairman Jim Pederson's campaign to unseat incumbent U.S. Senator Jon Kyl has yet to catch on with Arizona voters, according to the latest Cronkite-Eight Poll . The statewide poll of 846 registered voters, conducted by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET-TV, found Kyl leading Pederson 46 percent to 36 percent with 18 percent undecided. Previous Cronkite-Eight Polls in April and June showed Kyl leading Pederson by 11 and 14 points, respectively.

According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, “Kyl is maintaining his lead over Pederson by winning the party crossover battle and by attracting socially conservative voters to his campaign. In the ‘crossover' battle, 22 percent of all registered Democrats are supporting Kyl while only 11 percent of the Republicans are defecting to Pederson. Because there are more Republicans than Democrats in Arizona , Pederson must strengthen his appeal to traditional Democratic voters and attract a majority of independents to his campaign in order to win. It is important to note, however, that almost one-in-five voters (18 percent) still are unsure about how they will vote, so Kyl does not have the campaign sewn up at this time.”

The poll also found a majority of voters indicate that they will vote against a constitutional amendment that would ban same sex marriages and deny governmental entities from providing benefits to unmarried domestic partners. Thirty-eight percent support the amendment, 51 percent oppose it and 11 percent are undecided.

The Cronkite-Eight Poll also found that Gov. Janet Napolitano has a significant lead over all four of her Republican challengers. She leads Don Goldwater 62 percent to 27 percent; Len Munsil 62 percent to 23 percent; Mike Harris 62 percent to 23 percent; and Gary Tupper 62 percent to 20 percent.

“While it is clear that the governor will have a strong initial lead over any Republican challenger, a large part of the governor's support is due to the fact that about 40 percent of registered Republicans indicate they will vote for the governor,” Merrill says. “As the election gets closer, party ties will strengthen somewhat and the election may become closer.”

The poll also found that Arizona voters continue to support strong measures to curb illegal immigration. Seventy-six percent of those surveyed support an initiative that would keep illegal immigrants charged with a serious crime in jail without bail; 67 percent support an initiative that would make English the official language of Arizona ; and 61 percent support an initiative that would keep illegal immigrants from receiving punitive damages in lawsuits. In addition, 50 percent of those interviewed say they will vote to ban illegal immigrants from taking state-supported classes or receiving in-state tuition. Thirty-five percent opposed that proposition.

The statewide telephone poll of 846 registered voters was conducted August 24-29, 2006, and has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.3 percent. Fifty-eight percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County , 18 percent in Pima County and 24 percent in the less populated counties. The sample was 39 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 26 percent independent. Fifty-two percent of voters interviewed were females and 48 percent males.

Question wording:

1. Republican U.S. Senator Jon Kyl is running for re-election this fall against former Democratic state chairman and businessman Jim Pederson. If the election were being held today, would you probably vote for

2. Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano is running for re-election this November. Her Republican opponent won't be chosen until the primary election in September. If she runs against Republican Don Goldwater, will you probably vote for

3. If Governor Napolitano runs against Republican Mike Harris, will you probably vote for

4. If Governor Napolitano runs against Republican Len Munsil, will you probably vote for

5. If Governor Napolitano runs against Republican Gary Tupper, will you probably vote for

We would also like to know if you probably will vote for or against each of the following initiatives that will appear on the ballot this fall.

6. Proposition 300 would prevent undocumented immigrants from taking English and other state-funded, adult-education classes and would not allow undocumented students to pay in-state tuition. Will you probably support or oppose this proposition?

7. Proposition 103 would amend the state's constitution to make English the official language of Arizona and would require most state business to be conducted only in English. Will you probably support or oppose this proposition?

8. Proposition 102 would prevent undocumented immigrants from receiving punitive damages in lawsuits. Will you probably support or oppose this proposition?

9. Proposition 100 would automatically keep undocumented immigrants in jail without bail if they commit serious criminal offenses. Will you probably support or oppose this proposition?

10. Finally, Proposition 107 would amend the Arizona constitution to ban same-sex marriages and would bar governmental entities such as cities, counties, school districts and universities from providing employee benefits to unmarried partners. Will you probably support or oppose this proposition?

Eight/KAET-TV is a member-supported service of Arizona State University.

For information contact: Dr. Bruce Merrill at (480) 965-7051.