A new statewide poll of 377 registered voters in Arizona conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University May 20-23, 2004, found the following:

· President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry are in a close race. Bush received 43 percent of the vote, Kerry 38 percent, Nader 2 percent; 17 percent were undecided. The difference between Bush and Kerry is not statistically significant.

· There has been little change in the Bush-Kerry race since last month's poll. In April, Bush received 41 percent of the vote, Kerry 38 percent, Nader 3 percent and 18 percent were undecided.

· Bush's ratings on how he is handling the economy, the war on terrorism and the situation in Iraq have declined over the past few weeks.

· Forty-one (41) percent of those interviewed approved of the way Bush is handling the economy, down from 44 percent last month.

· Fifty-one (51) percent approved of the way Bush is handling the war on terrorism, down from 60 percent in April.

· Thirty-nine (39) percent approved of the way the president is handling the war in Iraq, down from 46 percent in February.

· Most Kerry supporters still say their support is more a vote against Bush than for Kerry, but the percentage of those saying so (68 percent) has declined from 85 percent in last month's survey.

· The crossover factor which favored Bush in April (more Democrats voting for Bush than Republicans voting for Kerry) has virtually disappeared. While 13 percent of the Democrats are now voting for Bush, 11 percent of the Republicans are crossing over and voting for Kerry.

· Independents favor Kerry (47 percent) over Bush (35 percent). Four (4) percent say they will vote for Nader and 14 percent are undecided.

· A "gender gap" is emerging in Arizona with women more likely to support Kerry and men more likely to support Bush. The male vote was 53 percent for Bush, 33 percent for Kerry, 3 percent for Nader and 11 percent undecided. The female vote was 36 percent for Bush, 47 percent for Kerry, 1 percent for Nader and 16 percent undecided.

· A majority of registered voters felt Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld should not resign. Republicans, self-identified conservatives and people who regularly attend church were least likely to call for Rumsfeld's resignation.

· Most Arizona voters feel there has been too much media coverage of the prisoner abuse in Iraq. Fifty-eight (58) percent said there was too much coverage, 28 percent said the amount of coverage was about right, 11 percent said there should be more coverage and 3 percent had no opinion.

· Republicans, conservatives, and frequent churchgoers were most likely to feel there has been too much coverage.

· Sixty-eight (68) percent of those interviewed felt that additional pictures and videos of prisoner abuse should not be shown. Twenty-eight (28) percent wanted the additional pictures shown and 4 percent had no opinion. Women were less likely than men to want additional information released.

· Seventy-seven (77) percent of those polled did not favor showing the video in which an American hostage was beheaded by terrorists. Nineteen (19) percent felt the video should be shown and 4 percent had no opinion. Women were less supportive than men of releasing the video where the American hostage was beheaded.

· Eighteen percent (18) of Arizona voters said the extensive coverage of the prisoner abuse situation in Iraq changed their position on the war in Iraq. Ninety-four (94) percent of those who said they are having a change of mind were more negative toward the U.S. involvement in Iraq. Younger voters were more likely than older voters to say that the media coverage was changing their mind about the war.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, who conducted the poll, "The Bush-Kerry race in Arizona is still too close to call. The negative media coverage in the past week or two is beginning to have some effect on women and younger voters who are weakening in their support for Bush. Nevertheless, considering the amount of negative media coverage the administration has had recently, one is impressed that the percentage of people who say they will vote for Bush for president has not dropped. This indicates that if things go better in the economy and in Iraq, Bush's support in Arizona will likely increase. It also seems to indicate that while people are concerned about what is happening both domestically and in Iraq, Kerry has not convinced people that he can handle the problems better than Bush.
"It's important to keep in mind that public opinion polls measure what people are thinking at a particular point in time. There are still five months until the presidential election, and I expect that public opinion will be very volatile right up to the election."

The statewide poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.1 percent. Fifty-two (52) percent of those interviewed were female, 48 percent male. Fifty-eight (58) percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 16 percent in Pima County, and 26 percent in the less populated counties. The sample consisted of 41 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 24 percent independents.

1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president of the United States?

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the U.S. economy?

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war against terrorism?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq?

5. Thinking about the amount of coverage you've seen about prisoner abuses in Iraq, do you feel there has been:

6. Evidently there are more pictures and videos of the prisoner abuses that occurred in Iraq. Do you believe the additional pictures should or should not be given to the media?

7. Have the prisoner abuse pictures that you have seen changed your view of the war?

8. ASK ONLY IF #7 IS YES:
Would you say the pictures increased or decreased your support for the war?

9. Do you believe the video of the young American being beheaded by terrorists in Iraq should or should not be shown on television?

10. Do you think that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld should resign?

11. In the upcoming presidential election, will you probably vote for:

12. ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR KERRY:
Overall, would you say you are voting more for (CANDIDATE CHOSEN) or against (CANDIDATE NOT CHOSEN)?

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University