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Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill (480) 965-7051
Can be used after 12:00 p.m., Thursday, February 26, 2004

BUSH RUNNING EVEN WITH KERRY AND EDWARDS IN ARIZONA

PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMY HURTING BUSH

MAJORITY SUPPORT WAY BUSH IS HANDLING TERRORISM

BUSH PERFORMANCE IN IRAQ MIXED

If the election were being held now, President George W. Bush would be in a tight race with either Sen. John Kerry or Sen. John Edwards. According to a new statewide poll of 430 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University between February 19-22, 2004, 44% of all registered voters said they would vote for Bush, 46% supported Kerry and 10% said they were undecided. Edwards received 43% of the vote, Bush 42% of the vote and 15% were undecided.

Against Kerry, the likely Democratic nominee, Bush did well among Republicans (79%), self-identified conservatives (77%), people who attend religious services frequently (58%), college graduates (52%) and male voters (51%). He does poorly among Democrats (10%), self-identified liberals (8%), women (40%) and those who consider themselves to be politically moderate (34%).

While Arizona voters were evenly divided on how he is doing as President (48% approve and 47% disapprove), it appears that Bush's biggest problem is associated with the way he is perceived as managing the U.S. economy. While 40% approved of the job he is doing managing the economy, 54% disapproved and only 6% held no opinion. In November 2003, 47% approved, 45% disapproved and 8% had no opinion.

The President continues to receive his highest ratings in terms of the way he is handling the war on terrorism. A majority (54%) approved of the job he is doing, 40% disapproved and 6% had no opinion. Last November, 52% approved of the job he was doing, 42% disapproved and 6% had no opinion.

Bush's support for the way he is handling the war in Iraq is evenly divided. Forty-six percent (46%) supported him, 49% were opposed and 5% said they had no opinion. Last November, 45% approved, 49% disapproved of the way he was handling the war and 6% had no opinion.

The statewide poll of 430 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.7%. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17% in Pima County, and 26% in the less populated counties. The sample consisted of 41% Republicans, 36% Democrats and 23% independents. Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters interviewed were female and 48% male.

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President of the United States?