A new statewide poll of 372 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University November 18-21, 2004, found that President George W. Bush carried Arizona largely because of personal characteristics such as leadership ability, personal integrity and commitment to moral values. Nearly 50 percent of Sen. John Kerry's vote came from people who were voting against Bush or were against the war in Iraq. The election was highly partisan. Republicans (90 percent) and self-identified political conservatives (88 percent) supported Bush. Democrats (85 percent) and liberals (90 percent) voted for Kerry. Interestingly, traditional demographics, such as age, education and gender, were unrelated to how people voted in 2004.

People who mentioned moral values as a reason for their vote supported Bush 93 percent to 7 percent. Those concerned with terrorism and keeping America secure voted 83 percent to 17 percent for Bush and those who voted on the basis of leadership and personal characteristic supported Bush 69 percent to 31 percent. Those against the war in Iraq supported Kerry 69 percent to 31 percent. Voters concerned with jobs and the economy voted 86 percent for Kerry and people concerned with social issues such as abortion, education, the environment, government spending and social security supported Kerry over Bush by a 72-percent to 28-percent margin.

According to the KAET-ASU poll, 70 percent of registered voters in Arizona would support funding all-day kindergarten, 22 percent were opposed and 8 percent had no opinion. Democrats (87 percent) and liberals (88 percent) were more supportive of the funding than Republicans (62 percent) or conservatives (63 percent). Younger voters also were more supportive of funding all-day kindergarten than older voters.

The survey also determined that registered voters are evenly divided on support for an amendment to the Arizona Constitution that would ban same-sex marriage. Forty-nine percent would support an amendment, 43 percent would be opposed and 8 percent were undecided or had no opinion. Republicans (77 percent) were more supportive of an amendment than Democrats (38 percent) or independents (40 percent) and conservatives were more supportive (80 percent) than liberals (25 percent) and moderates (46 percent). People who were over 60 years of age (66 percent) were twice as likely as voters under 45 (33 percent) to support such an amendment. College graduates were less supportive of the proposed amendment than those with less formal education.

The survey also asked voters whether or not they felt it was time to get rid of the Electoral College. Forty-eight percent felt it was time, 32 percent disagreed and 20 percent didn't know or had no opinion. Liberals (78 percent) and Democrats (83 percent) were more likely to favor getting rid of the Electoral College than conservatives (35 percent) or Republicans (36 percent). Independents (67 percent) and moderates (65 percent) tended to favor getting rid of the college. Males (67 percent) and people with less than a college education (75 percent) were more supportive of getting rid of the Electoral College than women (54 percent) or college graduates (49 percent).

Finally, 62 percent of all registered voters supported a statewide ban on smoking in all public places including restaurants, bars and workplaces. Thirty-five percent would not support a ban and 3 percent had no opinion. Support for the statewide ban cut across all demographic and political groups.

The statewide poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.1 percent. Forty-nine percent of those interviewed were male and 51 percent were female. Sixty percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17 percent in Pima County, and 23 percent in the less populated counties. The sample consisted of 40 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 25 percent independents.

QUESTION WORDING

1. IF BUSH OR KERRY: What was the MAIN reason you voted for (Bush/Kerry)?
REASONS GIVEN FOR VOTING FOR BUSH
% Responses Reason
35% Personal qualities/leadership/honesty/integrity 15 Moral values or beliefs 14 Way he is handling the war in Iraq 11 I was against Kerry 6 His policies on terrorism/keeping us secure 5 He's a Republican/I always vote Republican 4 I didn't want to change in time of war 4 He was the lesser of two evils 3 His economic policies/economy improving 2 His opposition to gay marriage 1 Like his social policies
100% (n=164)

REASONS GIVEN FOR VOTING FOR KERRY
% Responses Reason
25% Voted because I did not want George Bush 23 I was against the war in Iraq and the way Bush is conducting it
14 Personal characteristics/leadership/integrity/honesty
8 The economy is in poor shape/lost jobs
6 Need a change/Bush has had four years
6 I always vote Democrat
4 Like his social policies
2 Concern with high deficit
2 Concerned about Social Security
2 Bush's high handed foreign policy
2 Pro-choice
1 Kerry's moral values
1 Environmental policies or concerns
1 His position on making U.S. safe, secure
1 Kerry's position on stem-cell research
1 Education policies
1 Religious philosophy, positions
100% (n=164)

2. Now, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: I would support an amendment to the Arizona Constitution that would ban same-sex marriage.
1. Agree 49% 2. Disagree 43 3. Undecided 8
100%

3. Now, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: I support funding "all day" kindergarten in Arizona.
1. Agree 70%
2. Disagree 22
3. Undecided 8 100%

4. Now, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: I think it is time to get rid of the electoral college.
1. Agree 48%
2. Disagree 32
3. Undecided 20
100%

5. Now, please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statement: I would support a statewide ban on smoking in all public places including restaurants, bars and workplaces.
1. Agree 62%
2. Disagree 35
3. Undecided 3
100%

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University