A new KAET-ASU Poll shows a three-man race for the upcoming Democratic Presidential primary in Arizona. The statewide poll of 455 registered Democrats "with a high probability of voting*," conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University January 24-25,2004, found three candidates, Wesley Clark, John Kerry and Howard Dean, have a chance to win the Arizona Democratic primary. Among those having decided who they will vote for, Clark receives 15%, Kerry 10%, Dean 9%, Edwards 4%, Lieberman 3%, Kucinich 1% and Sharpton 1%. Other candidates received a combined 3% and 54% were undecided. * (A high probably of voting is defined as registered democrats who voted in at least three of the last four elections they were eligible to vote in.)

When Democrats who were "leaning" toward one of the candidates were added to those who have made up their minds, Clark got 22% of the vote, Kerry 21%, Dean 14%, Edwards 7%, Lieberman 3%, Kucinich 1%, Sharpton 1% and others 2%; 29% remained undecided.

The poll also asked people why they were voting for the candidate of their choice. Democrats will vote for Clark primarily because he comes across as a leader (31%), his military experience (20%), the issues he emphasizes (16%) and his electability (15%). Dean supporters like him because of the positions he takes on issues (38%), because of the way he presents himself (23%) and because of his position on Iraq (14%). He also is seen as electable (10%) and honest (10%). Kerry appears to have the widest basis of support but mainly appeals on the basis of his issue positions (25%), his leadership qualities (24%) and his position on the war in Iraq (16%). Edwards gets support primarily because he is seen as a young, fresh candidate (31%) and because he his issues appeal to the more conservative voters (47%).

Because electability is a key issue, the poll looked at which candidates were being supported on the basis of their ability to defeat President George W. Bush. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of those who said electability was a reason for their vote chose Clark and 38% chose Kerry. Fifteen percent (15%) were voting for Dean, 5% for Edwards and 4% for Lieberman.

When asked about the likelihood that they could change their vote before election day, Dean's supporters appear to be the most solid. Ninety-four percent (94%) said they will definitely stay with Dean. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Clark's supporters and 77% of those supporting Kerry said their vote would not change.

Demographic profiles showed Clark does particularly well with male voters (28%), residents of Maricopa county (27%), Democrats who only occasionally go to church services (26%) and college-educated voters (24%).

Kerry's support comes largely from self-identified political liberals (23%), from voters over 60 years of age (23%), Pima County voters (21%) and Democrats with college educations (21%).

Dean gets most of his support from Democrats living in rural areas (17%), self- identified liberals (16%), college-educated voters (16%) and voters who rarely or never attend church services (16%).

The poll also found that 10% of likely Democratic primary voters say they will definitely or probably vote for Bush this November. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they approve of the job Bush is doing regarding the war on terrorism, 22% approve of his decision to use military force in Iraq and 11% agree with the way he is handling the economy.

According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, "As of this last weekend, the Democratic primary is a contest between three candidates - Clark, Kerry and Dean. It is important to keep in mind while interpreting these poll results that there is still a high undecided vote and that the poll was taken before results of the New Hampshire primary were known. Because of the extensive media coverage of both the Iowa and New Hampshire votes, there is tremendous volatility in support for the various candidates. General Clark's support is based on the fact that he has done more political advertising than the other candidates and there are a large number of veterans in Arizona. If, however, he does not do well in New Hampshire, his support will drop in Arizona. If Dean does better than expected, his support in Arizona will firm up. Kerry must meet the expectations of having won in Iowa. Clearly the Arizona primary is shaping up to be the "make-or-break" election for the top four candidates. Whoever wins Arizona is likely to be a heavy favorite to gain the Democratic nomination for president this summer."

The statewide poll of 455 Democratic voters with a high probability of voting has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.6%. Fifty-two percent (52%) of those interviewed were female, 48% male. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17% in Pima County, and 25% in the less populated counties.