KAET-ASU Poll

Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill (480) 965-7051
Can be used after 7:00 p.m., Tuesday, September 24,

2002 RACES FOR GOVERNOR, SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION, AND TREASURER START EVEN

GODDARD LEADS ATTORNEY GENERAL RACE
BREWER HAS LEAD IN SECRETARY OF STATE RACE

A new statewide poll of registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University found that the race for Governor in November is starting out very close. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of all registered voters in Arizona are supporting Democrat Janet Napolitano, 36%, Republican Matt Salmon, four percent, independent Dick Mahoney, two percent, Libertarian Barry Hess and 21% are undecided. Among voters "most likely to vote," the race is still too close to call, with Napolitano receiving 43% of the vote, Salmon, 37%, Mahoney four percent, Hess one percent, while 15% are undecided.

Napolitano is benefiting from a slightly higher party crossover vote - 14% of the Republicans would vote for Napolitano compared to 12% of the Democrats supporting Salmon. Napolitano also is competing well in heavily Republican Maricopa County, where she is receiving 39% of the vote, compared to Salmon's 36%. Napolitano has a nearly two-to-one lead over Salmon in Pima County, 48% to 26%, but is trailing Salmon by a margin of 43% to 26% in the rural counties. There also appears to be an early gender gap in the Governor's race. Napolitano (39%) has an eight-percent lead over Salmon (31%) among female voters while Salmon (42%) has a seven-percent advantage over Napolitano (35%) among male voters.

In the race for Attorney General, former Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard seems to have retained enough name identification among registered voters to give him a 40% to 25% lead over Republican challenger Andrew Thomas. Libertarian nominee Ed Kahn received five percent of the support, while 30% are undecided. Among those most likely to vote, the numbers were Goddard 45%, Thomas 27%, Kahn five percent, with 23% undecided.

Republican Jan Brewer is leading Democrat Chris Cummiskey in the contest for Secretary of State 32% to 22%. Sean Nottingham, the Libertarian candidate, is receiving four percent of the vote and 42% are undecided. Among those most likely to vote, Brewer is receiving 36%, Cummiskey 28%, Nottingham three percent, with 33% undecided.

In the contest to become the next Superintendent of Public Instruction, Tom Horne (32%) and Jay Blanchard (27%) are running about even. John Zajac, the Libertarian, is receiving four percent of the vote while 37% are undecided. The numbers for those most likely to vote are Blanchard, 34%, Horne 31%, Zajac three percent, with 32% undecided.

Finally, few voters appear to know much about either candidate for State Treasurer. Democrat Ruth Solomon is receiving 27% of the vote, Republican David Petersen 31%, with 42% of all registered voters undecided. Among those most likely to vote, Solomon receives 26% and Petersen 31%. Forty-three percent (43%) are undecided.

The statewide poll of 481 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus four-point-five percent. The sampling error for those most likely to vote is plus or minus five-point-six percent. Fifty-four percent (54%) of those interviewed were female, 46% male. Fifty-six percent (56%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 18% in Pima County, and 26% in the less populated counties. The sample was 46% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 15% independent or "other".

Q1: This fall, there will be four candidates running for governor (rotate order names are read) Republican Matt Salmon, Democrat Janet Napolitano, independent Richard Mahoney and either Barry Hess or Gary Fallon, who are waiting for a recount in the Libertarian primary election. Will you vote for (rotate) Salmon, Napolitano, Mahoney, or Hess/Fallon?

Q2: In the race for Attorney General will you vote for (rotate)
Q3: For Secretary of State, will you vote for (rotate)
Q4: For Superintendent of Public Instruction will you vote for (rotate)
Q5: Democrat Ruth Solomon and Republican David Petersen are running for State Treasurer. Who will you vote for in that race?

* The "most likely to vote" category was determined by building an index combining scores on several demographic and psychographic variables including: frequency of media use, length of Arizona residence, age, education, how closely people follow state and local politics in Arizona, and past voting behavior.

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University