KAET-ASU Poll

Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill
(970) 927-0922
Can be used after 7 p.m., Tuesday, July 23, 2002

BUSH APPROVAL RATINGS BEGINNING TO SLIP

ARIZONANS DISMAYED BY U.S. ECONOMY;
CALL FOR TIGHTER REGULATION OF CORPORATIONS

A new poll by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University found that President Bush's approval ratings remain relatively high overall and for his battle against terrorism, but are much lower for his handling of the economy and have declined considerably among his traditional political opponents.

The poll of 411 registered voters in Arizona, conducted between July 18-21, 2002, found that two-thirds (66%) approve of the President's overall current performance, while 25% disapprove, and 9% have no opinion. The President's rating has declined since the most recent KAET measurement in February, at which time 79% gave their thumbs-up. Importantly, the customary partisan split in approval of the president has reemerged. Now, 89% of Arizona Republicans approve of Bush, compared to just 52% of Democrats.* Similarly, whereas fully 94% of self-identified conservatives give their nod of approval, only 39% of liberals share that sentiment. Approval of Bush is also stronger among males (77%) and whites (74%) than among women (68%) and non-whites (60%).

Arizonans' rating of the President's campaign against terrorism is similar to that for his overall performance. Sixty-nine percent (69%) approve, 23% disapprove, and 8% have no opinion. When KAET and the Cronkite School asked Arizonans only weeks after Sept. 11, 91% approved of Bush's anti-terrorism campaign. Republicans (84% approve), conservatives (91%), and male voters (80%) are again more supportive than Democrats (63%), liberals (53%), and women (70%).

Arizonans' rating of the President's handling of the economy is far less positive. Equal numbers of voters approve (44%) and disapprove (44%). Twelve percent (12%) gave no opinion. The partisan split is extremely pronounced on this issue. Whereas 73% of Republicans and 77% of conservatives approve of Bush's economic performance, only 23% of Democrats and 20% of liberals approve. Again, males (55% approve) and whites (53%) are somewhat more supportive than females (46%) and non-white voters (33%).

A majority of the state's voters now feel that the economy is headed in the wrong direction. Fifty percent (50%) think the country's economic condition is getting worse currently, compared to just 19% thinking it is improving. Twenty-seven percent (27%) think it is staying the same. Not surprisingly, those who are more supportive of the President's handling of the economy are also more optimistic about its current course. Whereas fully 68% of Democrats and 61% of liberals think the economy is declining, just 41% of Republicans and 42% of conservatives feel the same. Females (58% "worse") also give the economy lower marks than males (45%).

Finally, KAET and the Cronkite School found that an overwhelming majority of Arizonans feel the federal government should have a stronger hand in regulating the nation's corporations. Sixty-three percent (63%) would like to see increased federal regulation, while just 8% would prefer to see regulation decreased. Nineteen percent (19%) prefer to maintain the current level of regulation, and 10% were not sure. As one would expect, though majority support for increased regulation is present in all voter groups, Democrats (80% "increase") and liberals (79%) are somewhat more favorable towards an increased federal role than are Republicans (62%) and conservatives (59%). It is remarkable, however, that majority support is found in the latter groups, which tend to be ideologically opposed to additional regulation.

This poll of 411 registered voters in Arizona voters has a sampling error of 4.8%. Forty-five percent (45%) of those interviewed are registered Republicans, 38% Democrats, and 17% "others." Fifty-five percent (55%) live in Maricopa County, 16% in Pima County, and 29% in other counties. Fifty-three percent (53%) are female, 47% male.

POLL QUESTIONS

Q1: First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism?

Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the U.S. economy?

Q4: Several large corporations are being investigated for various kinds of alleged misconduct. Do you feel the involvement of the federal government in regulating corporations should be increased, decreased, or kept where it is now?

Q5: Right now, do you think the economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better, staying the same, or getting worse?

The KAET/Cronkite School poll uses "honest rounding" of percentages. Due to rounding error, some percentages may not total to 100%.

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University