KAET-ASU Poll

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WEDNESDAY JULY 18, 2001
(Dr. Merrill is on vacation. For information contact David Majure 480-965-5727)

KAET POLL:
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR McCAIN RECALL;
NAPOLITANO PREFERRED BY DEMOCRATS FOR GOVERNOR;
SALMON AND ARPAIO IN EARLY LEAD FOR REPUBLICAN
GUBERNATORIAL NOMINATION

It’s unlikely that Arizona voters would recall Arizona Senator John McCain, according to a statewide telephone poll of 410 registered voters conducted between July 12 and July 15, 2001.

Sixty-six percent (66%) said McCain should not be recalled, 18 percent said he should be recalled and 16 percent had no opinion on the matter. While the differences were not statistically significant, Republicans may be a little more likely to vote to recall McCain than other registered voters. Twenty-four percent (24%) of Republicans surveyed, sixteen percent (16%) of Democrats, and nine percent (9%) of independents would vote for recall. According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, director of the KAET Poll, "There is little chance that a recall would be successful. While some very conservative Republicans may feel Senator McCain has deserted his Party, his move to the ideological center of the electorate has broadened his support among all registered voters."

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. Forty-four percent (44%) of those interviewed were Republican, 40 percent Democrat and 16 percent Independents or "others". Fifty-nine percent (59%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 16 percent in Pima and 25 percent in other Arizona counties.

Poll results from June and July were combined to determine which candidates are leading in the race to become their party’s nominee for governor next year. At this early stage of the campaign, former Congressman Matt Salmon and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio appear to be early favorites among Republicans. Because of sampling error, it is not possible to determine if Salmon or Arpaio is leading. In the Democrat primary, Janet Napolitano is the early leader.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, "It is very early and a lot of things could happen between now and next year. Among the Republicans, Matt Salmon is probably slightly ahead of Arpaio at this time, but Arpaio could make the race interesting. Among the Democrats, Attorney General Napolitano is, clearly, the early leader. The poll results show that former state senator Alfredo Gutierrez gets a significant percentage of the Hispanic, African American and Native American votes. If these groups vote, the Democrat primary could certainly "heat up" during the campaign."

Q1: (ASKED TO REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO SAID THEY WOULD LIKELY VOTE IN THE REPUBLICAN RATHER THAN THE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY) Several Republicans are being considered as candidates for governor next year. If the following people run, who would be your first choice? (ORDER OF NAMES ROTATED): Former Congressman Matt Salmon, Secretary of State Betsey Bayless, Former State Senator Tom Patterson, State Treasurer Carol Springer or Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Sample size (206) (213) (419)
Sampling error for June and July is plus or minus 6.8 percent.
Sampling error for the combined sample is plus or minus 4.8 percent.

Q2: (ASKED TO DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO SAID THEY WOULD LIKELY VOTE IN THE DEMOCRAT RATHER THAN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY) Of the following Democrats who are being talked about as possible candidates for governor next year, who would be your first choice (ORDER OF NAMES ROTATED): Former Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard, Attorney General Janet Napolitano or Former State Senator Alfredo Gutierrez.

Sample size (175) (176) (351)
Sampling error for June and July is plus or minus 7.4 percent.
Sampling error for the combined sample is plus or minus 4.8 percent.

Sample sizes for the following potential general election match-ups are 399 for June, 410 for July and 809 for the months combined. The margin of error for June and July is plus or minus 4.9 percent. The combined margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percent.

The June KAET Poll found Janet Napolitano (45%) leading Joe Arpaio (27%) with 28 percent undecided. A question asking people who they preferred between Napolitano and Arpaio was not asked in July.

Q3: If the next election for Arizona governor ends up between Republican Matt Salmon and Democrat Janet Napolitano, who would you probably vote for? (order of names rotated)

The poll found that a race between Napolitano and Salmon is close at this time.

Q4: If the election is between Republican Matt Salmon and Democrat Alfredo Gutierrez, who would you vote for? (order of names rotated)

A possible Matt Salmon versus Alfredo Gutierrez match showed Salmon comfortably ahead.

Q5: Who would you vote for if the election ends up between Democrat Janet Napolitano and Republican Betsey Bayless? (order of names rotated)

Janet Napolitano leads a possible match-up with Betsey Bayless.

Q6: Who would you vote for if the election is between Democrat Janet Napolitano, Republican Matt Salmon and independent candidate Dick Mahoney? (order of names rotated)

Q7: Who would you vote for if the election is between Democrat Janet Napolitano, Republican Betsey Bayless or Independent Dick Mahoney?

The July poll found that former Arizona Secretary of State, Dick Mahoney, would be a decided underdog if he entered a race as an independent in either a Salmon/Napolitano or Napolitano/Bayless general election.

Q8: Now, I would like to switch subjects for a moment and ask you whether or not you think Senator John McCain should or should not be recalled.