Dr. Bruce Merrill (480) 965-7051
Wednesday, May 24, 2000
BUSH "PULLS AHEAD" OF GORE;
A poll of 402 registered voters living in Arizona conducted by KAET-TV and
the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Telecommunication at Arizona
State University between May 18-21, 2000 found that Texas Governor George
W. Bush leads Vice-President Al Gore 45 percent to 31 percent. Potential independent
candidate Pat Buchanan received 4 percent of the vote and 20 percent of those
surveyed were undecided. In late March, Bush and Gore were almost even (41%
VOTERS SUPPORT GOVERNOR'S SALES TAX INCREASE
VOTERS FAVOR EXEMPTING TEACHERS FROM STATE INCOME TAXES
According to Dr. Bruce Merrill who directed the poll, "Bush leads in
Arizona because he enjoys a significant 'cross-over' advantage from Democrats.
While 17 percent of the Democrats are supporting Bush, only 6 percent of the
Republicans are defecting to Gore. Interestingly, political independents,
who are usually somewhat conservative and tend to vote Republican in Arizona,
are splitting their vote between Bush with 28 percent of the vote and Gore
with 24 percent." Gore does best with younger voters, Pima County residents,
and Latinos. Bush does best with older voters and Maricopa County residents.
There appears to be no "gender gap" between Bush and Gore although
Buchanan does receive 6 percent of the male vote compared to 1 percent of
the female vote.
The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. Fifty-nine percent
of the sample was from Maricopa County, 17 percent from Pima County, and 24
percent from other counties. Forty-seven percent (47%) of those interviewed
were registered Republicans, 42 percent Democrats, and 10 percent "others".
The sample was 50 percent male and 50 percent female.
The poll also found strong support for Governor Hull's proposal to raise the
state sales tax six-tenths of one percent to improve education. Sixty-two
percent (62%) favored Hull's proposal, 31 percent were opposed and 7 percent
were undecided. Democrats (71 percent favorable, 23 percent opposed and 6
percent undecided) tended to be much more supportive than Republicans (54
percent supportive, 38 percent opposed, and 7 percent undecided). Sixty-four
percent (64%) of the independents were supportive, 29 percent were opposed,
and 7 percent were undecided. Voters under 45 (73%), Latinos (68%), and women
(68%) were most supportive.
The poll also found that voters
would support a plan being offered by the governor of California to exempt
classroom teachers in grades K-12 from paying state income taxes. Fifty percent
(50%) were supportive, 38 percent were opposed, and 12 percent were undecided.
As expected, younger voters tended to be most supportive.
Q: If the election for president were held today, would you vote for
Republican George W. Bush, Democrat Al Gore, or independent Pat Buchanan?
Q: We would like your opinion
about Governor Hull's proposal to increase the sales tax six-tenths of one
percent to improve education. Most of the money would be used in grades K
thru 12 to repair schools, reduce class size and increase teachers' salaries.
Some of the funds would also be used for research and technology in the state's
universities, and some money would be used for job training programs in community
colleges. In general, do you favor or oppose the sales tax increase for education?
Q: In California, as part
of their education reform package, the governor is proposing that classroom
teachers in grades K-12 be exempted from paying state income taxes. The proposal
would save the teachers an average of $500 to $600 per year. Would you favor
or oppose exempting teachers in Arizona from paying state income taxes?