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KAET-ASU Poll |
CONTACT: KAET POLL: A poll of 400 registered voters living in Arizona conducted by KAET-TV and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Telecommunication at Arizona State University between March 23-27, 2000 found that Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore are in a statistical "dead heat" in Arizona. The poll found 41 percent of the state's voters say they are supporting Bush, 37 percent Gore, 10 percent say they would not support either candidate, and 12 percent were undecided. When given the option of voting in a three-way race between Bush, Gore and potential Reform Candidate Pat Buchanan, Bush received 39 percent of the vote, Gore 36 percent, Buchanan 18 percent with 7 percent undecided. An analysis of voters who indicate they are supporting Bush and Gore shows interesting differences. The number of party "cross-over" voters is about the same for both candidates. Sixteen percent of the Republicans are voting for Gore while 20 percent of the Democrats are voting for Bush. Their vote also varies considerably by county. Bush leads Gore in Maricopa County 58 percent to 42 percent. Gore leads Bush in Pima County 63% to 37%, and Bush leads Gore in Arizona's more rural counties 56 percent to 44 percent. Not surprisingly, conservatives overwhelmingly support Bush 81 percent to 19 percent and those who say they are more liberal support Gore 83 percent to 17 percent. Those who see themselves as moderates or "middle-of-the-roaders" are going for Gore 56 percent to 44 percent. Older voters, who have tended to vote heavily Republican in Arizona, are voting more Democrat in this contest. While 58 percent of those under 30 and 57 percent of those between 36 and 45 support Bush, his support drops to 49 percent for voters between the ages of 46 and 60 and is 51 percent among voters over 60. The poll also showed there is no "gender gap" this year. The poll also asked voters which candidates they thought would do the better job in a number of areas. Surprisingly, except in the case of keeping taxes low, people see few differences between the two candidates. Bush is seen as the "reform" candidate by 29 percent to 22 percent but 31 percent of those polled did not think either was really a "reform" candidate. Bush is also seen as the best bet to keep the economy moving ahead by a 40 percent to 34 percent margin. It is in regard to cutting taxes that Bush is most different from Gore. Fifty-three percent (53%) said Bush would keep taxes low compared to 26 percent for Gore. Thirty-six percent (36%) of those polled said Gore was the education candidate compared to Bush's 34 percent. Thirty-eight percent (38%) felt Gore would do a better job handling foreign affairs compared to 34% for Governor Bush. Each candidate was seen by 37 percent of the voters as better able to deal with the needs of retired people. According to Dr. Bruce Merrill who conducted the poll, "This election is likely to continue to be close because the public sees few differences between the two candidates and both candidates appear to be seen as ‘centrist'. If Arizona is any indication of the rest of the country, it is apparent that Bush must continue to move more to the center of the ideological spectrum in order to win in November." The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. Fifty-three percent of the sample was from Maricopa County, 19 percent from Pima County, and 28 percent from other counties. Forty-six percent (46%) of those interviewed were registered Republicans, 38 percent Democrats, and 16 percent "others". Fifty-three percent of the sample was male; 47 percent female. Q1. If the presidential election this fall ends up being between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore, who will you vote for?
Q2: If Pat Buchanan runs as the candidate of the Reform Party, will you probably vote for Bush, Gore or Buchanan?
Q3: Thinking now about Bush and Gore, which candidate do you consider to be the: (reform candidate,/will do the most to strengthen education,/will best be able to continue economic growth,/will do the best job handling foreign affairs,/will be best for handling the needs of retired people,/would be best to keep taxes as low as possible.
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