KAET-ASU Poll

CONTACT:
Dr. Bruce Merrill (480)-965-7051
FOR RELEASE:
November 22, 2000
EMBARGOED UNTIL WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 22, 2000

KAET POLL

ARIZONANS SUPPORT CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT TO ABOLISH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE;
WANT CHANGES IN THE WAY ELECTION RETURNS ARE REPORTED;
ABOUT ONE-THIRD VOTED BY MAIL

A statewide telephone poll of 831 registered voters shows that 50 percent of all registered voters in Arizona would vote for an amendment to base future presidential elections on the popular vote rather than the electoral college. Thirty-two percent (32%) favor keeping the electoral college and 18 percent were undecided. Among those with an opinion, 63 percent favored abandoning the electoral college. The poll was conducted by KAET-TV and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Telecommunication at Arizona State University between November 16-19, 2000.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill who supervised the poll, "The thing that is most interesting about public opinion regarding the electoral college is that the issue is very polarized on the basis of socio-economic status. Democrats, people with a high school education, political moderates and liberals, and women tend to prefer the direct, popular election of presidents. Republicans, college educated voters, those who see themselves as politically very or generally conservative, and males tend to favor the electoral college."

There was almost unanimous agreement in Arizona that a law should be passed which would prevent television networks from releasing vote totals from any state until all the polls are closed in the continental United States. Seventy-eight percent (78%), 83 percent of those with an opinion, wanted the law. Sixteen percent (16%) were opposed and only six percent (6%) were undecided. The only demographic that was related to a law preventing early release of election results was age. The older a person is, the more likely they are to favor the ban. Seventy-one percent (71%) of those under 45 wanted a ban compared to 83 percent of those over 60.

Appoximately one-third (34%) of those interviewed said they voted early by mail. An analysis of the "early voters" indicated that those most likely to vote by mail were voters who consider themselves very conservative (43%), people over 60 years of age (42%), Republicans (42%), and college educated voters (37%). According to Dr. Merrill, "It is apparent the Republicans had a much more effective early voting program than the Democrats this year. While 40 percent of those voting for Bush voted "early," only 28 percent of the Gore vote took advantage of the early voting ballot.

The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percent when the proportion answering a question is 50 percent and assuming the 95 percent level of significance. The sample was 50 percent male and 50 percent female. Forty-six percent (46%) of those interviewed were registered as Republicans, 40 percent Democrats and 14 percent as something other than Republican or Democrat. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of the sample came from Maricopa County, 17 percent from Pima County, and 24 percent from counties other than Maricopa or Pima.

Q1: Would you approve or disapprove of an amendment to the Constitution to do away with the electoral college and base the election of future presidents on the total vote cast across the nation?

Q2: Would you favor or oppose passing a law in America that would require the television networks to not release the vote totals from any state until all of the polls are closed in the continental United States?

Q3: Did you vote by mail in this election?

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University.