KAET-ASU Poll

CONTACT:
Dr. Bruce D. Merrill
(602) 965-7051

KAET POLL:
HULL, MCGOVERN, SPRINGER AND WEST
LEAD PRIMARY RACES

A statewide poll of 428 registered Republicans conducted by KAET-TV and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Telecommunication at Arizona State University during the period August 27 - 30, 1998 found that Governor Jane Hull will easily defeat former TV broadcaster Jim Howl for the Republican nomination. Hull received 60% of the votes, Howl 10% with 30% indicating they were undecided. Hull did particularly well among voters who identified themselves as political moderates (68%) and voters over 60 years of age (70%).

In what many feel has been the most contentious race, Tom McGovern has a 12 point lead over former State Senator John Kaites, 32% to 20% with 48% undecided. McGovern's lead is primarily due to a strong showing in Pima County. He is also leading by about 10% in Maricopa County. The race appears to be even in the state's rural counties. Dr. Bruce Merrill, the poll's director, points out that this is a race that could still be very close by election day. "It's going to be determined by which candidate has the resources to run the best campaign 'down the stretch'."

At this time, Secretary of State Betsey Bayless is leading former Phoenix Councilwoman Francis Emma Barwood by a three-to-one margin, 33% to 10% with 57% undecided. Bayless leads in all parts of the state. Dr. Merrill feels that "Bayless has much higher name identification statewide and has far more resources than Barwood to run a statewide campaign between now and the election."

Former State Senator Carol Springer also enjoys a rather sizeable lead over businessman DL Culiver in the race for the nomination for State Treasurer, 30% to 15% with 60% undecided.

According to Dr. Merrill, "Even though there are large numbers of Republicans who say they are undecided in these contests, keep in mind this is a primary and the turnout will only be about one-third of those registered. Most of those who are still undecided with a week or ten days to go will not vote on election day. Nevertheless, all the races with high undecideds give hope to the candidates running behind that if they can get their supporters to the polls they have a chance to win."

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7%. Fifty-six percent (56%) of the sample was taken in Maricopa County; 20% in Pima County; and 24% in the other counties. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the sample was male; 49% female.

Q: In the race for governor will you probably vote for (ROTATE ORDER):

Q: In the race for Attorney General the two candidates are John Kaites and Tom McGovern. Who will you probably vote for in that race?

Q: The race for State Treasurer is between DL Culiver and Carol Springer. How will you probably vote in that race?

Q: In the race for Corporation Commissioner will you probably vote for Gary Carnicle or Tony West?

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