Wednesday, October 23, 1996

CONTACT: Dr. Bruce Merrill: (602)965-7051



With the election less than two weeks away, President Clinton's lead over Bob Dole in Arizona among all registered voters is 7%. Clinton is getting 46% of the vote, Dole 39%, Perot 4%, Harry Brown 1% and 10% are undecided. A month ago Clinton was ahead by 8%. The numbers were: Clinton 44%, Dole 36%, Perot 7%, Brown 1%, with 12% undecided.

Among voters indicating they are highly interested in politics and therefore have a high chance of voting, Clinton has actually increased his lead slightly. As of Sunday night when the poll was completed, Clinton receives 46% of the vote, Dole 40%, Perot 3%, Brown 2 with 9% undecided. Last month the numbers were: Clinton and Dole each with 44%, Perot 4%, Brown 1%, and 7% were undecided.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, Director of the Media Research Program at ASU, who conducted the poll, "the race continues to be very close in Arizona and either candidate could win. The key factor will be turnout. A low turnout, as was the case for the primary election, will clearly help Dole and the other Republican candidates. Clinton continues to lead in Arizona because twice as many Republicans (16%) are crossing over to vote for Clinton as Democrats are crossing over to vote for Dole (9%), and because women and registered voters over 65 are going disproportionately for Clinton."

Five hundred and thirty-seven (537) registered voters statewide in Arizona were interviewed by telephone between October 16 - 20, 1996. The sampling error for the survey is plus or minus 4.2%. The sample was statistically weighted to be identical to the sample taken one month ago. Forty-six percent (46%) were Republican, 39% were Democrat and 15% were registered with other parties.

The results on some of the major propositions are:

Proposition 102 relates to who will have jurisdiction over juvenile offenders. Currently the superior court has sole jurisdiction over juveniles. If you vote "yes," when the juveniles reach the age of 15 they will be automatically be tried as adults for murder, sexual assault, and armed robbery. The authority for juvenile offenders will be transferred from the courts to the executive branch of government. A "no" vote will keep things the way they are with the superior court retaining full jurisdiction over juvenile offenders. Will you vote yes (53%) or no (33%) on Proposition 102?

Fourteen percent (14%) were undecided.

Proposition 200 deals with controlled substances. A "yes" vote would require people who are convicted of committing violent crimes while on drugs to serve their entire sentences. It would also allow doctors to prescribe otherwise illegal substances for patients who need them for medical purposes. Will you vote yes (66%) or no (15%) on Proposition 200? Undecided (19%).

Proposition 201 relates to Indian gaming in Arizona. A "yes" vote would require the state to grant gaming compacts to Indian tribes on their reservations. A "no" vote would allow the State to refuse to grant gaming compacts to Indians tribes on their reservations. Will you vote yes (52%) or no (32%) on Proposition 201? Undecided (16%).

Proposition 203 relates to AHCCCS the state's health care plan for indigents. A "yes" vote would allocate $17 million dollars a year from lottery funds for health and nutrition and expand the eligibility to include more people. A "no" vote would essentially keep AHCCCS the way it is. Will you vote yes (57%) or no (23%) on Prop 203? Undecided ( 20%).

Proposition 300 would raise state legislator's annual salaries from $18,000 per year to $24,000 per year. Will you vote yes (45%) or no ( 39%) on Prop 300? Undecided (16%).

According to Dr. Merrill "Proposition 201, the so-called "Fairness Proposition" which would allow Indians to receive gaming compacts on their reservations, could actually affect both the Presidential election and the race in the tight Sixth Congressional District. If the Indians go to the polls in significant numbers to vote on Prop 201 they will tend to also favor President Clinton and Steve Owens in the Sixth District".


10/96 9/96
Clinton 46% 44%
Dole 39% 36%
Perot 4% 7%
Brown 1% 1%
Undecided 10% 12%

10/96 9/96
Clinton 46% 44%
Dole 40% 44%
Perot 3% 4%
Brown 2% 1%
Undecided 9% 7%

Proposition 102 Proposition 300
Juvenile Justice Legislators' Salaries
Yes 53% Yes 45%
No 33% No 39%
Undecided 14% Undecided 16%

Proposition 200

Controlled Substances

Yes 66%
No 15%
Undecided 19%

Proposition 201

Indian Gaming Compacts

Yes 52%
No 32%
Undecided 16%

Proposition 203


Yes 57%
No 23%
Undecided 20%


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