KAET-ASU Poll

CONTACT: Dr. Bruce Merrill: (602)965-7051

KAET POLL:

DOLE AND CLINTON IN CLOSE RACE;
ARIZONANS DON'T BELIEVE
DOLE TAX CUT PROMISE;
PREFER ELIZABETH DOLE
OVER HILLARY CLINTON

In a poll conducted of all registered voters in Arizona while the Democratic convention was in session (August 27, 28, 29), Bill Clinton led Bob Dole 43% to 35%, Ross Perot had 6%, and 16% were undecided. Among those most likely to vote on election day, however, the race was tied with each of the major party candidates receiving 42%, Perot with 3% and 13% were undecided.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, Professor of Mass Communication in the Walter Cronkite School, who directed the poll: "If the election were held today the election would be very close. Remember, however, this poll was conducted during the Democratic convention and would not measure the 'bounce' the Democrats received after their convention. Also, my suspicion is that the recent bombing of Iraq will help Clinton at least in the short term. The poll also shows that two-thirds (64%) of all registered voters and even a majority of the Republicans (53%) do not believe Dole will be able to keep his tax cut promise if he is elected. Dole could clearly lose Arizona this fall."

Clinton is still benefiting from more Republicans "crossing over" to vote for Clinton (20%) than Democrats defecting to Dole (10%). While men were evenly divided in the preference for Clinton (37%) and Dole (37%), the "gender gap" re-emerged in Arizona. Women preferred Clinton/Gore to Dole/Kemp 47% to 33%. A poll a month ago found the difference between men and women and who they preferred for President was not statistically significant. According to Dr. Merrill: "We almost found a 'gender gap' a month ago. What's happened now is that with the selection of Kemp, the battle lines on abortion are clearly drawn now between two 'pro-life' candidates and two 'pro-choice' candidates."

When asked whom they felt was the greater asset to their candidate's campaign, registered voters picked Elizabeth Dole over Hillary Clinton 43% to 26%. Twenty-two percent (22%) said their was no difference between the women and 9% had no opinion.

The poll of 474 registered voters which was co-sponsored by KAET-TV Channel 8 of Phoenix and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7%.

If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for Bill Clinton, Bob Dole, or Ross Perot? All registered:

Most likely to vote:

Whom do you think is the greater asset to their husband's campaign, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Dole?

Bob Dole has said he will cut federal taxes 15% if he is elected. Do you think he would be able to cut taxes 15% if he is elected?