Ted Simons: Good evening, and well come to this special Vote edition of "Arizona Horizon." I'm Ted Simons.
The ballots have been cast, results are in, and now it's time to talk about the winners and the non-winners of this year's primary election. Here to help us make sense of the vote, consultants Stan Barnes of Copper State Consulting and Bob Grossfeld of the Media Guys. Gentlemen thank you so much for joining us. We got a half hour to go through a lot of races. Before we get to the hard numbers and the results, anything stick out to you, any themes happening? What are you seeing?
Stan Barnes: We know who the Republican nominee is for governor. That's a big deal. After all the jockeying and polling, Ducey has -- Not has, has now won with a commanding lead. That's really good news for him. Because he's going to need all the momentum he can to unite the party and to take on a fresh Fred Duval, but this is an impressive win by Doug Ducey tonight.
Ted Simons: Thoughts, impressions?
Bob Grossfeld: I don't think it's that impressive. He spent a ton of money, he spent it early, and he did it correctly. Smith came in late, didn't have that much money, was thought to be one of the guys who could take on Ducey. Christine Jones spent a ton of money, and spent it all incorrectly. So I think what you have is something that's played out more tactically than the overall strategy of what's going on on the Republican side like that. I think he's got a big problem.
Ted Simons:You think Ducey has a problem?
Bob Grossfeld: Yes.
Ted Simons:What do you think that problem is?
Bob Grossfeld: I think he's got a little bit too far to the right. I think he's got a split party. And I'm not sure those kind of wounds will heal very quickly.
Stan Barnes: He does have a split party, Ted. But now the real race begins. Imagine in a very -- The next few weeks, we're going to see the immigration issue go right up to the top again. And we're going to watch President Obama unilaterally do a lot in that space and Fred Duval has -- It's going to be a bruising next two months.
Ted Simons: The governor obviously backs Smith, Smith is not -- Has not won. How hard now does she get behind Ducey, how hard does Smith, Thomas, Bennett, Jones, how hard do they get behind Ducey?
Stan Barnes: I think the governor is all in for Ducey. She likes him. She's a team player anyway. So I think she's enthusiastic. Will it make a difference? That's a good question. I think the other players in the primary will back Ducey with enthusiasm. I don't know Christine Jones, but I believe she's a classy lady, and will get behind the nominee.
Ted Simons: Will we see Christine Jones again?
Stan Barnes: You know, she's got a lot to offer. But there's a couple lessons here. One is like buzz mills before her, you simply cannot buy your way into an election. Doug Ducey spent a lot of money, $5 million of his own money plus others' U. but he spent it correctly. That's not that easy. It's easy to say, not easy to do. Christine spent $5 million of her own plus Bob parsons million and plus I don't know what. There are lessons for all of us.
Ted Simons: As far as the general, Fred Duval who has had absolutely no problem skating up till now. This kind of a primary, Ducey wins handily, was Duval helped or hurt by not having at least token opposition?
Bob Grossfeld: I don't think he was either helped or hurt. I think the situation he was in was one of get as much money together as you possibly can, build an organization, and know that coming out of it you're going to get one of two opponents that you would have to go up against. And either Ducey or Smith. And I think the way it played out, they're probably a bit more pleased about Ducey than had it been Smith.
Stan Barnes: This is a center right state. It has been for all of my political lifetime. For Fred to lean into that head wind, coming from the center left, he's going to have to take a play out of Janet Napolitano's winning handbook from in which she won by a mere , votes. He -- You can belt the Duval campaign is looking at how she did. She ran to the right of Matt salmon on a number of issues, Duval is going to come out as a conservative, pragmatic democrat and try to get Smith voters to go with him, not to mention all the other people that didn't go to a primary but are going to a general.
Ted Simons: Let's get to the attorney general's race. A lot of folks are interested in this one and this is the first of two races in which an incumbent is not going to make it. What happens? We know what happened. What happened?
Stan Barnes: The voters caught up with Tom Horne, and bad news caught up with Tom Horne. Bark Brnovich stood in as the anybody but Tom Horne place holder, and the anybody but Tom Horne numbers are bigger than Tom Horne's numbers himself. You know, would it have been almost a miracle if Horne would have come through that. I thought he would win the primary because he was on TV and playing the border card the way he can play it. And he does have great name I.D., etc. But there's so much of a cloud around him, that voters caught up.
Ted Simons: Democrats happy or not quite as happy that they're facing Brnovich as opposed to Tom Horne?
Bob Grossfeld: I think it would have been a gift worth giving. Certainly worth receiving had Horne made it through. But Brnovich has his own baggage. Nobody has made much -- Paid much attention to him and what he's saying, and the position he's taking. And I think the more that comes out, the less palatable he's going to be particularly for moderates.
Ted Simons: That brings up a question I asked during the bait, are you running for this office or are you running against Tom Horne? And it seemed for the most part he was basically saying vote for me I'm not Tom Horne.
Stan Barnes: He's getting his legs under him though. He's new to politics, that takes rhythm getting your confidence together. I think you'll see him do better than he should, but this is the race that democrats in Arizona I think can taste. Felicia Rotellini is a great candidate, and almost beat Tom Horne last time. And so democrats smell blood in this A.G.'s race. They've held it in recent past watery Goddard and I think they believe this is one for them.
Ted Simons: Speaking of Terry Goddard, with his Democratic candidate for secretary of state, let's get to the Republican side, any surprises that a last name of Reagan wound up winning.
Stan Barnes: I don't know how Michele Reagan could have possibly lost. She's a great candidate, great state senator, fine woman with a great resume. Her name is Reagan, she's female in a three-way race with two other guys who pounded the heck out of each other in direct mail and otherwise. So no, there's no surprise in this race.
Ted Simons: Michele Reagan is the head of that race, the impact of dark money on that race? Was it that much of an impact at all?
Bob Grossfeld: I don't know. I think the dark money was spent Frankly in other ways, and other races to a far greater extent. Especially if you start looking at the corporation commissioner commission races.
Ted Simons: Yes, which we will shortly. Here we have the results, at least standing results.
Bob Grossfeld: I think it's very interesting, Ted, that Justin pierce received three-quarters after million dollars or so of outside money on his behalf and he placed a distant second. I think Terry Goddard is probably unhappy tonight because he would much rather have faced will Cardon or Justin Pierce. How does he beat Michele Reagan in a general election for that office, I do not know.
Stan Barnes: I think Michele is going to win the general.
Ted Simons: You think so? Do you think she's going to win over Terry Goddard?
Bob Grossfeld: No. No way. Goddard is too strong statewide. Reagan has a base here in Maricopa County, and that's pretty much it. She has this fantastic last name that works really well in Republican primaries. But it doesn't translate out beyond that. So I don't think it's a slam-dunk for Michele Reagan at all.
Ted Simons: All right. Let's get to the superintendent of public instruction, yet another race in which an incumbent Republican bites the dust.
Stan Barnes: This is history in the making. Two incumbents in their own primary. John Huppenthal is a decent individual, he's a friend of mine, I'm sorry he had to go out of office this way, but his difficulties are fresh, they seemed like they just happened, they made a front page day after day, and he could not recover. I can barely name his opponent. I think her name is Douglas. So Diane Douglas was standing in as anybody but john Huppenthal and % or so at this point in the evening is really a big number. So I feel bad for John, the last few months are not reflective of his public service, which has been great in the state senate and other places. But this is not his night.
Ted Simons: It wasn't his campaign. He was all over the map with common core, explaining himself with falcon -- I mean, it seemed like every week there was another response to this.
Bob Grossfeld: Yeah. He was having problems.
Ted Simons:That's quite an --
Bob Grossfeld: Thank you. There's not a lot to analyze. I mean, the guy stepped in it big-time, tried to back out, kind of stepped in it again, tried to back out. Initially the question was, well, is he going to run? Is he even going to run for reelection? And at that time I took a look at it and said, he might as well. Because he could have pulled it out. He didn't run a decent campaign on top of it. I mean, had he been able to run a good campaign, he might have had a chance at it. Because his opponent, at least as I recall, is pretty -- Woo hoo --
Ted Simons: Can you define that?
Bob Grossfeld: Some of her positions on the issues I think are a tad bit out there.
Ted Simons: Are they so out there that a David Garcia who we'll see in a second on the Democratic side, looks like he's going to advance as well, is this David Garcia's seat to lose?
Stan Barnes: This is a -- The other seat statewide that democrats know they can win. Garcia is a sharp, intelligent, energetic likeable guy, and Diane is a brand-new player on the scene. And this is one of those offices that has the feeling of leaning toward democrats. I don't even know why I think that, because everybody, recent history has been a Republican that held that seat. The education issue is an issue that democrats do pretty well in.
Ted Simons: And also the Republican side, there's a faction of the Republican Party that common core or whatever they're calling it this week, they just hate common core. And it strikes me at least that a lot of folks in Arizona aren't quite that upset with common core.
Stan Barnes: Most people don't know what it is. And those who claim to know can't define it. But there is a slice of the Republican electorate that is very exercised about it, and Diane Douglas will carry that into the office. So it's -- I think you'll see independent or dark money come into this race as well. Is my guess. Even though there's not a lot of -- There's -- It's not a traditional place to spend a lot of money. Democrats want to put numbers on the board. They want to put W’s in the column, and this is one where they think they can win.
Ted Simons: Are these the kind of down ticket items that will bring more democrats to the polls in November? Because they have a chance now?
Bob Grossfeld: Absolutely. And I think if you look at the top tier, it's in a way it's kind of a Democratic Dream Team. Duval, Goddard, Rotellini, and now Garcia. It's like you look at that, and you go, what's not to like? I mean, set aside the bruising that's going to take place, and the dark money, darkest money I think we've ever seen that's going to be poured into this state on top of them, well, it's also going to be hitting the other side. And I think that's something -- It's easy to lose sight of that, particularly on the Democratic side. They're not going to sit backs and take it. It's going to be a two-way street.
Ted Simons: Let's get to a race in which there will not be a two-way street. Are there no democrats out there that can balance the books?
Bob Grossfeld: We don't do well with money. [laughter]
Stan Barnes: Save this tape! Save this tape!
Ted Simons: Let's get to the treasurer's race. A little -- I thought this was interesting as well. No one knew what a DeWitt was before this campaign started.
Stan Barnes: No one does yet. This is a brand-new guy on the scene, and I don't know if you credit the video that he made with his wife and kids recently, but it had a viral nature to it where they were mimicking the "Frozen" movie with their own lyrics. That is a surprise to me. Proving those of us who live in the echo chamber don't know what we're talking about some of the time. I knew it was going to be Halman. Because he was a smart and well-known guy with a base, etc. And DeWit is a total unknown. But he made a good case for himself as a guy with a securities license that's handled a lot of money, fresh face on the scene, energetic, seems to be likeable. And he's our next state treasurer, because even though democrats were in the majority in the state even until the 1980's, they haven't held the treasurer's race since the 40's, because as bob said they're not that good with money. At least people don't think they are. Regardless --
Bob Grossfeld: Let me pull back. I'm going to walk that one back.
Stan Barnes: You better!
Ted Simons: As far as Hugh Halman is concerned, people here remember him as the mayor of Tempe. This was a guy that was -- That wanted to originally run for governor.
Stan Barnes: Yes.
Ted Simons: Those numbers need to be tweaked. He was going to run for governor, back off that, let's go for treasurer. This isn't even all that close. What happens to Hugh Halman?
Stan Barnes: Hugh's got a lot to offer. I think we'll see him again. But he must be a surprise to everybody tonight. Because there was no polling in this race, no one knew what it was going to be. I'm sure he is surprised, I'm sure DeWiT is happy, congratulations, they deserve it.
Ted Simons: He's a young guy, so we're probably going to see him moving in other directions.
Stan Barnes: Maybe. Doug Ducey just served a term as treasurer and now is going to be the nominee for governor. I don't know if it's a path in the future, but there you go.
Ted Simons: Corporation commission. I know critics and cynics will say the Arizona public service, APS, the big winner tonight.
Bob Grossfeld: I don't think that's cynical. It's pretty much on target. What's interesting, we were talking about it earlier. It's gotten to the point where they're not even trying to hide it anymore. And I think they've -- For better or for worse, called it correctly. They can be outed on this stuff and nobody cares. It will get play in the press, dies, nobody really thinks much of it.
Ted Simons: Do they not care because it's just too -- You mentioned the corporation commission and most eyes glaze over anyway. Is that what's going on with the electorate? Did they just say make sure my bills aren't too high?
Bob Grossfeld: To some extent -- Here's what I found telling. "The Arizona Republic" covers that race only on the business section. That's the only place you see anything about this race. And I think it's been relegated to that pigeonhole, and I think that's probably a mistake in the -- From a statewide perspective.
Ted Simons: With that in mind, do democrats have a chance in the general?
Bob Grossfeld: Yes.
Ted Simons: They do have a chance?
Bob Grossfeld: Yeah.
Do you agree with that statement?
Stan Barnes: You have to say they do, because in very recent history they won two of the three seats. And Senator Kennedy, who is of course unopposed tonight in the primary, is one of those people coming back and Jim HOLway is the other democrat and they're both smart and experienced people. But this race, and this primary, even though it's not the biggest race of the night, is the most interesting to me, because the new phenomenon of the large monopoly being able allegedly, I don't know this, but everybody is saying, that APS is spending a great deal of money to choose its own regulators. The phenomenon is going to play out in the general, and it's going to be the big issue. Democrats are going to make a big issue of it.
Ted Simons: How many legs does that have?
Stan Barnes: I think spider legs, lots of legs. I think it's going to be the issue of the campaign. The democrats are going to portray themselves as the solar team, once again, it's been a winning marketing tool for them. And to the extent there's money on their behalf being spent, it's going to be pointing out -- Pointed out that without any details from Arizona public service, Tom Forese and Doug little are their candidates. Which is fortunate -- Unfortunate. Otherwise they're decent enough people, and foresee made a good that I'm for himself in the legislature, Doug little is new with a great resume. They're otherwise great candidates. But I worried as a Republican that the APS branding on them is going to be bad enough that they're going to suffer in the general, even if they win, how do they govern with that over their heads?
Ted Simons: Every action --
Stan Barnes: Yeah. That's not a good thing for us.
Ted Simons: All right. Let's get to the congressional races. We'll start with CD-. This is fascinating here. Gary Kiehne, who has dropped Nazi references, has curious photographs and videos we don't want to get into, and talked about serial killers being of a certain -- All sorts of crazy things. This gentleman is giving Andy Tobin a run for his money.
Bob Grossfeld: Well, it's a tight race. They've been pouring money in from all over the place. And when you start throwing a lot of money into a race, it starts elevating just about everybody in there. Because you're just paying more attention to it.
Ted Simons: 14 votes, though. Andy Tobin is the speaker of the house.
Bob Grossfeld: Yeah.
Ted Simons: What's going on?
Stan Barnes: Mr. Tobin, who is a fine gentleman, is once again reminding us, and I've seen this almost every election since , that legislative prowess and publicity and power does not translate to a congressional race. And we all in the echo chamber of the state capitol building revere Andy Tobin's steady hand as speaker of the house. But when you go out into a giant district like that and you try to raise money and connect with voters, and you got guys like Gary Kiehne and Mr. Kwasman on your heels, it's a whole different ball game. And being a speaker only gets you so much.
Ted Simons: All right. CD-, we'll start with you on this one, are you surprised that this was as lopsided as it looks to be?
Bob Grossfeld: No. And I've been seeing that for a long time developing.
Ted Simons: It's still Gallego up by, 12ish.
Stan Barnes: The race is done. Ruben won.
Bob Grossfeld: Again, it's kind of a classic old school versus new school. New tech versus low tech. Mary rose Wilcox ran her campaign. The one she's been running for X number of years. And relying on having contributed to the community, knowing everybody, everybody knows her, they go to a restaurant, a very community oriented way of doing things. You have this newcomer coming into the race with whole new ideas about how to do things, and using electronics like they've never been used before in this state, and using iPhones, not Palm pilots. Play the tape sometime. In order to do grass-roots organizing. And it worked like a charm.
Ted Simons: Did I miss, you know, the outward, the push from Ed pass tore, the pounding of the pavement, the get behind -- Did I miss that?
Bob Grossfeld: You could have just like that missed it. I don't think there was a whole lot there. Looks, he's a retiring Congressman, everybody wants something from him. And I think his endorsement of Mary rose was pretty predictable.
Ted Simons: Mr. Gallego goes to Washington.
Stan Barnes: Not only does he go to Washington, but I think your viewers ought to note this particular time as the birth of a new political dynasty on the Democratic side, if you will. I'd go that far. Ruben Gallego is young, and Ivy league educated with a military background, and as Bob said, is tech savvy and connected. And is now in a safe congressional seat for the rest of his life. If he wants to hold it. His wife of course is on the Phoenix city council. Those two people are going to anoint Democratic politicians in Phoenix and beyond for a long time to come.
Ted Simons: Interesting.
Stan Barnes: Mr. Grijalva in southern Arizona is on the way out, Ann Kirkpatrick is always struggling to hold her district. Ruben Gallego is going to be the tent pole democrat in this state for the next -- As long as he wants to have it. And that's a very interesting thing for tonight to see that play out.
Ted Simons: All right. And of course we're seeing the same thing in congressional district, right any can't say that with a straight face. Goodness gracious, Wendy Rogers against Andrew Walter, this was a strange race. Even the results are strange. Who thought this was an -point race?
Stan Barnes: Yeah, this was hard to call, hard to predict. There was a lot of inside baseball. This is Wendy's second round on this, and sometimes it takes more than once to do it. But Wendy is going to go forward. The problem for Wendy, who is a respected and decent and energetic woman, is she's about to go into the Sinema chain saw and Kyrsten Sinema is the personality of Arizona politics. I think she has $2 million in the bank in order to spend. So this is going to be a tough race for the Republicans.
Ted Simons: Is Sinema another one of those people like you were referring to, Mr. Gallego, somebody we're going to be seeing a lot of for a long time?
Stan Barnes: I think so. Unlike Mr. Gallego who is in a congressional seat now he can never lose in the future unless he really messes it up, she's in a central district, it's something in the balance all the time. So Kyrsten votes with the Republicans on a regular basis just to keep it balanced. She's going to have to have $2 million dollars. She's going to have to spend a lot of it to hold the seat.
Ted Simons: We thought this was -- The minute she won two years ago, that's going to be a hotly contested race. What happened?
Bob Grossfeld: She did good. She went to D.C. and instead of playing out this liberal Persona she developed here, she went moderate. And moderate to conservative on a lot of issues. And the leadership in D.C. allowed her to take some positions without beating her up over it. Knowing that she would have to come back and run in a moderate middle to, what did you say, middle right?
Ted Simons: Center right.
Bob Grossfeld: -- center right kind of area. Where despite what it is now, the shape it's moving into is going to be much safer for her over the next several years.
Ted Simons: OK.
Ted Simons: Because of the demographic changes.
Before we get out of here as far as the legislative races, too many to talk about, but some high points.
Stan Barnes: A couple of big things for tonight. One of them is that the -- Those legislators that decided to walk the plank and vote with the governor on Medicaid expansion, and split the Republicans, those Republican senators are with the governor all seem to be winning tonight. That's a big deal. Because when they cast that vote, it took a lot of political courage on their part in order to go into that. That earned all of them primary opponents. And there have been a lot of tough battles all over the state. But it appears that without fail, all of them are coming back tonight in their own primary. That's a big story.
Ted Simons: And yet the newcomers that were picked by the governor or at least folks aligned with the governor to take on maybe some of the more radical right, some would say extreme right elements didn't do quite so well.
Stan Barnes: The other side of that coin, the governor broke with tradition and decided separate from just backing those candidates that backed her in the legislature, she reached out to unknowns and tried to bring them in. And help fund their campaigns. All of those appear to be losing tonight, which is a very interesting phenomenon.
Ted Simons: What are you seeing as far as the legislature is concerned?
Bob Grossfeld: An enormous amount of money that was played into legislative races, where it just never had been before. And it's not going away. And I'm not sure what's going to happen when they actually go into the session. And they're not allowed to raise money. But there's all this money circling around them that just had not been there before. And that's going to fundamentally change how things are done, I suspect.
Stan Barnes: Bob hit on a very important point. There was over $ million in independent expenditure in the Republican primary. Over $8 million. That would have been an unheard of number just in one election cycle ago. But because of the Supreme Court decision and because of it's become culturally acceptable to spend money in a manner that's not disclosed, there it goes. And that's the real story of this primary, is all of that money that's been in the game.
Ted Simons: We've got less be a minute to go. Independents, how much impact?
Stan Barnes: Well, I think if you ask Scott Smith he would say not as much as he'd hoped. And so sitting here tonight, at this moment, it looks like it's not a measurable impact. You can't really point and say, here's where the independents made the difference.
Ted Simons: Did the independents make as big a difference as folks thought?
Bob Grossfeld: No. I think that was people looking for a story line. I think there was slightly higher turnout among independents, but you had this incredible array of races that was getting a lot of attention, and was driving people crazy. And so even in the independents are going to be drawn into that just to participate.
Ted Simons: Yeah. All right. Gentlemen, great stuff. We will talk a little bit more about this on tomorrow's show. Great to have you here tonight for your analysis.
That is it for now. I'm Ted Simons. Thank you so much for joining us. You have a great evening. Captioning Performed By LNS Captioning www.LNScaptioning.com
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