Horizon, Host: Ted Simons

May 22, 2006


Host: Michael Grant

2006 Elections


  • A look at the Arizona congressional races and the issues that could affect them with Art Hamilton and Wes Gullet from Hamilton, Gullet, Davis and Roman.
Guests:
  • Art Hamilton - political consultant
  • Wes Gullet - political consultant


View Transcript
Michael Grant:
Tonight on Horizon, a look at the congressional races in our state this year including that race for the senate seat held by Jon Kyl. "New York Times" columnist David Brooks talking about this election year and a local organization that has been serving children and their families for 25 years.

Announcer:
Horizon is made possible by the contributions of friends of eight, members of your Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

Michael Grant:
Good evening. Thanks for joining us tonight on Horizon on. I'm Michael Grant. The United States Supreme Court has refused to hear James Hamm's appeal in his quest to be admitted to the state bar of Arizona. Hamm is a convicted murder seen here presenting his case before the Arizona Supreme Court last October. In 1974 Hamm and an accomplice killed two men during a drug deal. He was sentenced to life in prison. He was paroled in 1992, graduated from the ASU college of law in 1996 he passed the bar examination but has been thwarted in his attempt to become a practicing attorney in Arizona.

Michael Grant:
Immigration, the war on Iraq, gas prices, lobbyist scandals. All are issues that could affect the outcome of congressional races this year. Recent national polls have shown democrats could recapture the House of Representatives. Meanwhile one Arizona senator appears to be positions himself for a presidential run in 2008 while his colleague is defending his seat this year from well-funded opposition. Joining us to talk about the races, their implications, two names on the doors of Hamilton, Roman, Gullet and Davis. They are Art Hamilton and Wes gullet. Gentlemen, good to see both of you.

Art Hamilton:
Good to see you, Michael.

Michael Grant:
We don't get together frequently enough to chat about stuff like this.

Wes Gullet:
It's always interesting to be with Art in public to talk about politics. We do it a lot in private.

Hamilton:
I enjoy being with Wes. He's the reason I'm retired.

Michael Grant:
Mr. Hamilton, put all those substantive issues to one side. We talking real money here in this United States senate race? What do you think?

Art Hamilton:
We're talking real money. I suspect before it's all said and done the boys are probably going to spend 15 to $20 million. And for Arizona that's a lot of -- for any place that's a lot of money, But are they serious about it. Senator Kyl is intent on defending his seat. And I believe Jim Pederson is intent on bringing Senator Kyl home. I think it's going to be a real race.

Michael Grant:
Are we going to have battling fundraisers for the rest of the year? We have bill Clinton coming in for Pederson shortly, Laura bush coming in for Jon Kyl. It's been going back and forth here.

Wes Gullet:
There will be plenty of money and there will be plenty of opportunities to give your money in this election cycle. I think anybody who's interested in hearing a good speech will have an opportunity to hear one at a fundraiser. Only cost you about $1,000.

Michael Grant:
Let's do talk about some of the issues. These will ripple through -- we're going to try to talk about a couple of congressional races, too, but immigration. How do -- how does Jon Kyl, how do republicans generally best position themselves to have most success in November on immigration?

Wes Gullet:
Well, in one of Jon Kyl's commercials on immigration he said we needed to have a little straight talk about immigration. I thought that was a nice sap to my old boss, senator McCain. But I think they've got to get this off the table. They've got to act. I think the best thing for republicans is to have immigration reform behind us when we go into the elections. Because it's too volatile an issue to have out there on the playing field in this political environment.

Michael Grant:
Art, can you advance an argument, though, particularly with -- I mean, the decibel level on this thing has ratcheted just enormously in the past 60 days with the marches and those kinds of things. I think people see this now as a more tangible issue maybe than they saw it six months ago. Can you run a campaign on -- I'm going to do the right things on immigration or I'm going to support the right things on immigration or not?

Art Hamilton:
I think you can, Michael. Because I think folks actually want to see if we can find a solution to the immigration problem or at least to begin to address it. I think the idea that I'm just going to throw rhetoric at it, doing to demonize the issue might have worked in years past but it's too volatile, there are too many people involved. I think going to have to come with some real solutions which is why I think senator Kyl is going to find a way to make his position look a whole lot more like senator McCain's. I think McCain is seen as having a real solution to the problem. Maybe not exact right solution but simply putting a big 18-foot, 25-foot deep line across the border isn't going to solve the problem. And I think senator Kyl is recognizing that and starting to talk about, well, maybe we can find a way to deal with the guest worker program. I think you have to move a lot farther in that direction.

Michael Grant:
Former legislator John Ver Camp, does he figure in this at all.

Art Hamilton:
I think him a lot. He's a great guy but I think he's a republican plant. I can't understand why john decided to jump in this race. It's the kind of thing Wes would have come up with about 5 years ago. I think at the end of the day it will be Jim Pederson and Jon Kyl and a knock down drag out fight.

Michael Grant:
What are the other issues? What else maybe determines the outcome on this particular race, Wes?

Wes Gullet:
Well, I think in any campaign you look at the candidates and you feel comfortable with one of them and you vote for that person. I think Jon Kyl has a long history of making people feel comfortable with him in Arizona and I think that -- in November people will be feeling comfortable about Jon Kyl. I think Jim Pederson miss add opportunity to define himself as a regular guy as opposed to democrat party chairman and I think Jon Kyl's taken advantage of that right now. And we're going to have a political fight, a good one, but at the end of the day people are going to feel better about Jon Kyl, I think, then Jim Pederson.

Michael Grant:
Let's travel down to district 8, unfortunately, I always think of it as district 5. That seat is open almost for the first time in 25-years. The Jim McNulty-Jim Colby race in '82. Give me the analysis on the republican side of that race.

Wes Gullet:
Well, we have an interesting group of people running, but there are really three candidates. Randy Graff who ran against Jim Colby, very extreme right wing candidate who is running on immigration almost exclusively. Steve Huffman, who's a very smart chairman of the house ways and means committee, young guy, good fundraiser has a lot of business support is running, Steve Huffman and Michael Grant Helen is an established guy, very smart guy as well. Is running. I think at the end of the primary we'll see Steve Huffman I think come out of that race. Randy graph could. If he does I think the numbers in the district are not good for republicans and that's what the democrats are hoping for.

Michael Grant:
That's a real concern at least for the moderate wing of the party, is it not, that if Helen stays in he and Huffman hack at each other and Graff has got a solid base of conservative support down there. He pulled 42-43 against Colby a couple of years ago.

Wes Gullet:
Right. So it will be close. But even if he sticks at 43, which is a big number for somebody as conservative as randy Graff, I think has Huffman can still slip in with a funding advantage.

Michael Grant:
Two-person race on the d Side of that, patty wise and gabby --

Art Hamilton:
Gifford certainly has a lead in terms of money and I think name id. But patty wise is incredibly well known, a former TV personality, going to be well funded. Going to be a heck of a fight and a good contest because we do in fact see the possibility of picking up that seat after all those years of it being republican control. Senator Colby or congressman Colby was in fact a good, moderate, thoughtful person who appealed across party lines. If it happens to be Huffman he is a much tough person to beat for the democrats. If it happens to be randy Graff I think the district is not going to turn that far to the right and I believe who the democrats will nominate will be the next congressperson of that district.

Michael Grant: Arguably that district is most impacted by the immigration issue. You don't think Graff can ride that horse all the way through to November?

Art Hamilton:
I think he can ride that horse possibly through the nomination. But again I believe people at the end of the day want this problem off their plate. They want people to bring grown-up answers to what they see is a grown-up problem. I think Graff's one-dimensional rhetoric may appeal to a fairly broad base but it won't be big enough or deep enough in my judgment to get him to congress.

Michael Grant:
All right. Let's come back up to the phoenix metro area. Harry Mitchell has got this really big giant honking statue in Tempe and deservedly so. Is he viable against J.D. Hayworth?

Art Hamilton:
I think he is. He served Tempe for a long time as mayor, now serves in the state senate. He clearly has the kind of reputation that makes him viable. People I think see him as a person who can bring positive solutions to problems in a year where I think people are going to want grownup solutions to problems I think he is a perfect person to have running against J.D.

Michael Grant:
He is not a real good strong campaigner, though, Wes. And J.D., I mean, a lot of things get said about J.D., but he certainly is master of the 15-second sound bite. I mean, he can guarantee the headline, he can guarantee the clip on the 6 and 10 p.m. news. How do you see that race?

Wes Gullet:
Well, I see it that J.D. will probably win in the end. But there are rules and guidelines in politics. And one of the guidelines -- not a rule, just a guide line -- never run against a guy who's got a statue, especially if he's still alive. That's one you want to avoid. Now, that said, J.D. Has a -- is a very good campaigner. I don't know, though. I'm afraid that our turnout and our people won't vote. I'm afraid republicans aren't going to be energized. They're disappointed. They're delusional and they going to be -- disillusioned, I should say. Some of us are delusional. [Laughter]. So they're not going to vote. If they don't vote and the democrats vote like they did for john Kerry, it's a tied race and it's very he close.

Michael Grant:
Wes Gullet, thanks very much for joining us. We'll continue to check in, art Hamilton, good to see you.

Both:
Thank you.

Michael Grant:
David Brooks is a "New York times" columnist and contributor to the News Hour with Jim Lehrer. He recently spoke with Larry Lemmons about his thoughts on the upcoming election.

Larry Lemmons:
I'd like to talk about the upcoming election. Our own senator John McCain is obviously being touted as being a Republican frontrunner. And he's courting a part of the Republican Party that he didn't court the last time he ran. What's your take on that?

David Brooks:
Well, I think Senator McCain's likely to be the nominee, certainly the most likely. He's been right on a whole bunch of issues from a republican point of view on spending. Spending has gone out of control he's been very tough on spending. There were a lot of people who doubted him. When he ran against president bush I would say even the mainstream establishment of the Republican Party did not have a high opinion of john McCain. But over the last five years they've seen him on issue after issue come out on their side, whether it was foreign policy, whether it's spending, a bunch of other things. And so he has become the establishment candidate. It's sort of funny to see Jerry Falwell call him into his office. A lot is made of the fact that he's going out and courting the religious right group he wasn't too friendly with recently. But I've talked to people about how this is all working. What's happening is beginning to court him because they sent he's the frontrunner. And I've talked to all the other candidates, all the other candidates who are running. They say McCain is the frontrunner.

Larry Lemmons:
Even Frist?

David Brooks:
I haven't asked Frist, but I think people see this as the whole race, John McCain and one other person. They're competing to be that other person just as in the democratic side it will be hurricane Katrina, Hillary Ron ham Clinton. She's got tremendous skills. She's liked in the senate. That isn't always true especially of democratic nominees. I wouldn't say John Kerry was liked by everybody. I think her problems will be she doesn't necessarily trust other people. She's very guarded, and if you don't trust people that's hard for voters to trust you. That will be a personal thing, so either display or not display. But a McCain Hillary race would be an interesting race for host of us who are Washington political types because they're very good friends now. They would not be good friends. They are both very competitive people. That would be a race between two superstars.

Larry Lemmons:
Tom Delay is no longer majority leader. You think about his political demise. Is congress up for grabs? And will Tom Delay's exit affect that?

David Brooks:
I think congress is up for grabs in part because of Tom Delay himself but Delayism. And Delayism was a way of doing government. And it was to use all the tools of government to try to advance your partisan cause. And that meant spending a lot of money if you thought it would buy votes, it meant co-opting lobbyists if you felt it would help your party. The problem is the lobbyists' co-opted them. That led to this culture of self-dealing which republicans are aware and distressed about what happened. So delay created a culture where the congress has been behaving incoherently. They've been spending money on wild things unintelligently, running up deficits without really accomplishing that much. So I do think the congress is up for grabs. I think the house of representatives in particular is up for grabs. The republicans -- bush's approval rating is low. Republicans disastrously low, Democrats not high,, but as Newt Gingrich said and he nose something about this, if I were running the democratic party all I would say over and over again is, had enough? Had enough? That's not a bad thing to be said. The senate I think would be heart. I think if Jon Kyl were in any kind of trouble I would think then the senate could turn but I don't think that's true.

Larry Lemmons:
Well, speaking of, whatever happened to fiscal conservativism?

David Brooks:
Well, you know, what matters in Washington is less the philosophy you have it's where you sit. If you sit in the majority you're going to try to use money to buy votes. That's just what majority parties do. And the republicans did that. They did it through these earmarks, which are these little things congress would slip into bills in the middle of the night to pass favors to their special friends. When the republicans took over in 1994 there were 4,000 of these earmarks in the budget. Now there are about 15 to 20,000. So that's not fiscal discipline. And that's the corruption of being in office and that's why voters have to watch members of congress.

Larry Lemmons:
Well, please take out your crystal ball. Can you tell us what some of the driving issues will be in the upcoming election, and can you predict an outcome?

David Brooks:
Well, the driving issues are first the war. The war is effecting the republican standing, it's effecting bush's standing. Then as you get to the races you get too much more individual races. And I think it will be issue by issue. Out here it's obviously immigration is the dominant issue. Elsewhere it's not, actually. In Pennsylvania where there are some other key races. There you get strange things, symbolic issues like ANWR, drilling in ANWR. And some of it is just personal. So it's going to be a series of local races but with a general wind favoring the democrats. If I had to guess -- this is totally without value but this is what I do for a living is make guesses -- I would say the democrats will take the house and the republicans would keep the senate, Which I think would be the best for both parties. Because the republicans having all the control has made them a little arrogant, and the democrats having no power has made them a little bit irresponsible.

Michael Grant:
The 25-years southwest human development has been providing a variety of services for Arizona children from newborn to age 5. It was founded by a valley woman. I'll talk to her about the agency but first here's more on the program.

Announcer:
Five minutes at the end of the day or the hug that makes your day. Even the tears that go hand in hand with childhood. Make up the story of your relationship with your child. If you don't like the way your story is unfolding, the good fit center can help by providing mental health services for very young children and their families. Call the good fit center at 602-200-0434--- a program at southwest human development.

Michael Sauceda:
It's just one of the services for children and families provided by southwest human development. It was founded in phoenix in 1981. The nonprofit organization was founded to help build a positive future for young children and families in Arizona. It was created by early childhood professionals. It provides programs and services for families focusing on development of children from newborn to five years. Southwest human development started with six staff members to serve 175 children and families. It now has 500 staff members who service more than 50,000 children and families, mostly in Maricopa County. The agency offers services that cover child health and welfare, services for children with disabilities, a head start program, professional development and training and research-based early childhood development programs.

Michael Grant:
Recently I talked about southwest human development with its founder and director, Ginger Ward. Ginger, southwest human development is one of the largest nonprofits in the state.

Ginger Ward:
Yes, we are. We serve over 50,000 children and families each year. And I have a staff of about 550 child development professionals.

Michael Grant:
Are you getting tired after 25-years?

Ginger Ward:
Absolutely not. I am totally invigorated and we're doing bigger and better things all the time.

Michael Grant:
Why did you form it 25 years ago?

Ginger Ward:
Well, 25-years ago I thought it was a pretty simple concept. I was working in early childhood for a couple of years before I started southwest human development and saw there was a lack of services for very young children and their families who suffered from severe issues, social issues and other kinds of challenges. In addition to the lack of services, the quality of the services was pretty poor and services were a lot of times inaccessible to families and parents had to tell their story over and over and over again to try to get some help. So when I started it was with the idea of creating a system of support for families and then high quality early childhood programs.

Michael Grant:
Was the son September somewhat to create one stop I hesitate to call it shopping but maybe to bring closer together an array of services targeted obviously at that particular age group and those particular people with that set of needs?

Ginger Ward:
Yes. I think that not necessarily everybody coming to one place, but providing services in communities where families live, then where they went to go to the doctor's, to go shopping and those kinds of things. So actually thinking about all the services that could support young kids and their families and trying to put them together in a way that was coherent for families and also professionals in the field.

Michael Grant:
At this point in time, what's southwest human development's primary source of funding? Where do you get most of the money to make things go?

Ginger Ward:
At this point in time we have a combination of state and federal funds. And we also have a small portion of our funding that comes from corporate grants and foundation grants. But we are working right now on a new project called the Arizona institute for early childhood development that to expand programs that have no public funding and to form partnerships with more corporations and local foundations and individual donors.

Michael Grant:
Obviously involved deeply in head start programs, as I understand it, you both take those head start programs to schools and you also have some facilities yourself where you offer head start programs.

Ginger Ward:
Yes. We are operating head start programs in five different school districts in the phoenix area. And we also have an infant-toddler head start program. We've been operating that program for 23-years now. And it has given us a lot of basis for our research and evaluation that we've done on children and outcomes for children and families that have really paved the way for a lot of work we're doing today.

Michael Grant:
Remind us again what head start is.

Ginger Ward:
Head start is a preschool program for low-income families, from low -- children from low-income families. And also it's an infant toddler home visiting program for families who have kids younger than the age of three. In addition to the educational component of the program, there is a family support piece of the program, social services, and health consultants. So it really is a program that is targeting families to get their kids ready to go to school.

Michael Grant:
You mentioned data set. I mean, you've got 23-years, I think. You mentioned there's always controversy about what works and what doesn't. And often times unfortunately the response is, well, we don't have the right kind of linear studies. We haven't been able to track somebody from the age from the head start program through college or not as the case may be. Have you got some good linear data over a couple of decades?

Ginger Ward:
I think that we've got very good data on a number of our different projects. I think the thing that is exciting today is that after 20-years we have a strong foundation in just nationally on research -- through research and science about what really works for young kids and families. We know what young children need. We know what services work. We know how staffs have to be trained to do the service. So we don't really need any more research in the field, we just need to do what the research says and what science has been telling us for the last 20-years.

Michael Grant:
I want to make sure I ask you about -- you had a -- you have a new program called the birth to five help line.

Ginger Ward: Yes.

Michael Grant:
What's that about?

Ginger Ward:
The birth to five help line is a toll free number that families can call, care gives givers can call and also professionals in the childhood development asking questions about childhood development in the areas of sleep, nutrition, safety, are children reaching their developmental milestones. We're the only toll free number in the state of Arizona that serves this purpose. And the number is staffed with professionals, who are available all the time to answer people's questions.

Michael Grant:
So if a parent is concerned about any of those subjects they just get on the phone to that one and say, hey. Here's an issue for you and someone trained and hopefully competent will help them try to work through that?

Ginger Ward:
Yes, absolutely. We also refer people to different resources in the community. After 25-years it's still hard to figure out where to go if you have a young child that, you know, has a need. And we help direct people to resources. We have a backup group of nurses and psychologists and social workers and therapists that actually can further assist people if they have more complicated issues.

Michael Grant:
All right. Ginger ward, congratulations on 25-years for southwest human development, and we appreciate you joining us.

Ginger Ward:
Thank you so much for having me.

Announcer:
In the latest Eight opinion poll we asked people their views on immigration issues, including the state legislature's plan for funding border security measures. Sheriff Joe's posse members detained illegal immigrants and the minutemen building a wall at the borders. Those poll results Tuesday on Horizon.

Michael Grant:
Wednesday a look at how republican Hispanics are fighting stereotypes. Thursday, a look at some of the cases of the Supreme Court. Thanks for joining us. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

Announcer:
If you have comments about Horizon, pleads contact us at the addresses listed on your screen. Your name and comments may be used on a future edition of Horizon.

Announcer:
Horizon is made possible by contributions from the friends of eight, members of your Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

southwest Human Development


  • For 25 years now, Southwest Human Development has been helping children ages newborn to five and their families with a multitude of services. Ginger Ward, director and founder of the agency, tells us more about its mission.
Guests:
  • Art Hamilton - political consultant
  • Wes Gullet - political consultant


View Transcript
Michael Grant:
Tonight on Horizon, a look at the congressional races in our state this year including that race for the senate seat held by Jon Kyl. "New York Times" columnist David Brooks talking about this election year and a local organization that has been serving children and their families for 25 years.

Announcer:
Horizon is made possible by the contributions of friends of eight, members of your Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

Michael Grant:
Good evening. Thanks for joining us tonight on Horizon on. I'm Michael Grant. The United States Supreme Court has refused to hear James Hamm's appeal in his quest to be admitted to the state bar of Arizona. Hamm is a convicted murder seen here presenting his case before the Arizona Supreme Court last October. In 1974 Hamm and an accomplice killed two men during a drug deal. He was sentenced to life in prison. He was paroled in 1992, graduated from the ASU college of law in 1996 he passed the bar examination but has been thwarted in his attempt to become a practicing attorney in Arizona.

Michael Grant:
Immigration, the war on Iraq, gas prices, lobbyist scandals. All are issues that could affect the outcome of congressional races this year. Recent national polls have shown democrats could recapture the House of Representatives. Meanwhile one Arizona senator appears to be positions himself for a presidential run in 2008 while his colleague is defending his seat this year from well-funded opposition. Joining us to talk about the races, their implications, two names on the doors of Hamilton, Roman, Gullet and Davis. They are Art Hamilton and Wes gullet. Gentlemen, good to see both of you.

Art Hamilton:
Good to see you, Michael.

Michael Grant:
We don't get together frequently enough to chat about stuff like this.

Wes Gullet:
It's always interesting to be with Art in public to talk about politics. We do it a lot in private.

Hamilton:
I enjoy being with Wes. He's the reason I'm retired.

Michael Grant:
Mr. Hamilton, put all those substantive issues to one side. We talking real money here in this United States senate race? What do you think?

Art Hamilton:
We're talking real money. I suspect before it's all said and done the boys are probably going to spend 15 to $20 million. And for Arizona that's a lot of -- for any place that's a lot of money, But are they serious about it. Senator Kyl is intent on defending his seat. And I believe Jim Pederson is intent on bringing Senator Kyl home. I think it's going to be a real race.

Michael Grant:
Are we going to have battling fundraisers for the rest of the year? We have bill Clinton coming in for Pederson shortly, Laura bush coming in for Jon Kyl. It's been going back and forth here.

Wes Gullet:
There will be plenty of money and there will be plenty of opportunities to give your money in this election cycle. I think anybody who's interested in hearing a good speech will have an opportunity to hear one at a fundraiser. Only cost you about $1,000.

Michael Grant:
Let's do talk about some of the issues. These will ripple through -- we're going to try to talk about a couple of congressional races, too, but immigration. How do -- how does Jon Kyl, how do republicans generally best position themselves to have most success in November on immigration?

Wes Gullet:
Well, in one of Jon Kyl's commercials on immigration he said we needed to have a little straight talk about immigration. I thought that was a nice sap to my old boss, senator McCain. But I think they've got to get this off the table. They've got to act. I think the best thing for republicans is to have immigration reform behind us when we go into the elections. Because it's too volatile an issue to have out there on the playing field in this political environment.

Michael Grant:
Art, can you advance an argument, though, particularly with -- I mean, the decibel level on this thing has ratcheted just enormously in the past 60 days with the marches and those kinds of things. I think people see this now as a more tangible issue maybe than they saw it six months ago. Can you run a campaign on -- I'm going to do the right things on immigration or I'm going to support the right things on immigration or not?

Art Hamilton:
I think you can, Michael. Because I think folks actually want to see if we can find a solution to the immigration problem or at least to begin to address it. I think the idea that I'm just going to throw rhetoric at it, doing to demonize the issue might have worked in years past but it's too volatile, there are too many people involved. I think going to have to come with some real solutions which is why I think senator Kyl is going to find a way to make his position look a whole lot more like senator McCain's. I think McCain is seen as having a real solution to the problem. Maybe not exact right solution but simply putting a big 18-foot, 25-foot deep line across the border isn't going to solve the problem. And I think senator Kyl is recognizing that and starting to talk about, well, maybe we can find a way to deal with the guest worker program. I think you have to move a lot farther in that direction.

Michael Grant:
Former legislator John Ver Camp, does he figure in this at all.

Art Hamilton:
I think him a lot. He's a great guy but I think he's a republican plant. I can't understand why john decided to jump in this race. It's the kind of thing Wes would have come up with about 5 years ago. I think at the end of the day it will be Jim Pederson and Jon Kyl and a knock down drag out fight.

Michael Grant:
What are the other issues? What else maybe determines the outcome on this particular race, Wes?

Wes Gullet:
Well, I think in any campaign you look at the candidates and you feel comfortable with one of them and you vote for that person. I think Jon Kyl has a long history of making people feel comfortable with him in Arizona and I think that -- in November people will be feeling comfortable about Jon Kyl. I think Jim Pederson miss add opportunity to define himself as a regular guy as opposed to democrat party chairman and I think Jon Kyl's taken advantage of that right now. And we're going to have a political fight, a good one, but at the end of the day people are going to feel better about Jon Kyl, I think, then Jim Pederson.

Michael Grant:
Let's travel down to district 8, unfortunately, I always think of it as district 5. That seat is open almost for the first time in 25-years. The Jim McNulty-Jim Colby race in '82. Give me the analysis on the republican side of that race.

Wes Gullet:
Well, we have an interesting group of people running, but there are really three candidates. Randy Graff who ran against Jim Colby, very extreme right wing candidate who is running on immigration almost exclusively. Steve Huffman, who's a very smart chairman of the house ways and means committee, young guy, good fundraiser has a lot of business support is running, Steve Huffman and Michael Grant Helen is an established guy, very smart guy as well. Is running. I think at the end of the primary we'll see Steve Huffman I think come out of that race. Randy graph could. If he does I think the numbers in the district are not good for republicans and that's what the democrats are hoping for.

Michael Grant:
That's a real concern at least for the moderate wing of the party, is it not, that if Helen stays in he and Huffman hack at each other and Graff has got a solid base of conservative support down there. He pulled 42-43 against Colby a couple of years ago.

Wes Gullet:
Right. So it will be close. But even if he sticks at 43, which is a big number for somebody as conservative as randy Graff, I think has Huffman can still slip in with a funding advantage.

Michael Grant:
Two-person race on the d Side of that, patty wise and gabby --

Art Hamilton:
Gifford certainly has a lead in terms of money and I think name id. But patty wise is incredibly well known, a former TV personality, going to be well funded. Going to be a heck of a fight and a good contest because we do in fact see the possibility of picking up that seat after all those years of it being republican control. Senator Colby or congressman Colby was in fact a good, moderate, thoughtful person who appealed across party lines. If it happens to be Huffman he is a much tough person to beat for the democrats. If it happens to be randy Graff I think the district is not going to turn that far to the right and I believe who the democrats will nominate will be the next congressperson of that district.

Michael Grant: Arguably that district is most impacted by the immigration issue. You don't think Graff can ride that horse all the way through to November?

Art Hamilton:
I think he can ride that horse possibly through the nomination. But again I believe people at the end of the day want this problem off their plate. They want people to bring grown-up answers to what they see is a grown-up problem. I think Graff's one-dimensional rhetoric may appeal to a fairly broad base but it won't be big enough or deep enough in my judgment to get him to congress.

Michael Grant:
All right. Let's come back up to the phoenix metro area. Harry Mitchell has got this really big giant honking statue in Tempe and deservedly so. Is he viable against J.D. Hayworth?

Art Hamilton:
I think he is. He served Tempe for a long time as mayor, now serves in the state senate. He clearly has the kind of reputation that makes him viable. People I think see him as a person who can bring positive solutions to problems in a year where I think people are going to want grownup solutions to problems I think he is a perfect person to have running against J.D.

Michael Grant:
He is not a real good strong campaigner, though, Wes. And J.D., I mean, a lot of things get said about J.D., but he certainly is master of the 15-second sound bite. I mean, he can guarantee the headline, he can guarantee the clip on the 6 and 10 p.m. news. How do you see that race?

Wes Gullet:
Well, I see it that J.D. will probably win in the end. But there are rules and guidelines in politics. And one of the guidelines -- not a rule, just a guide line -- never run against a guy who's got a statue, especially if he's still alive. That's one you want to avoid. Now, that said, J.D. Has a -- is a very good campaigner. I don't know, though. I'm afraid that our turnout and our people won't vote. I'm afraid republicans aren't going to be energized. They're disappointed. They're delusional and they going to be -- disillusioned, I should say. Some of us are delusional. [Laughter]. So they're not going to vote. If they don't vote and the democrats vote like they did for john Kerry, it's a tied race and it's very he close.

Michael Grant:
Wes Gullet, thanks very much for joining us. We'll continue to check in, art Hamilton, good to see you.

Both:
Thank you.

Michael Grant:
David Brooks is a "New York times" columnist and contributor to the News Hour with Jim Lehrer. He recently spoke with Larry Lemmons about his thoughts on the upcoming election.

Larry Lemmons:
I'd like to talk about the upcoming election. Our own senator John McCain is obviously being touted as being a Republican frontrunner. And he's courting a part of the Republican Party that he didn't court the last time he ran. What's your take on that?

David Brooks:
Well, I think Senator McCain's likely to be the nominee, certainly the most likely. He's been right on a whole bunch of issues from a republican point of view on spending. Spending has gone out of control he's been very tough on spending. There were a lot of people who doubted him. When he ran against president bush I would say even the mainstream establishment of the Republican Party did not have a high opinion of john McCain. But over the last five years they've seen him on issue after issue come out on their side, whether it was foreign policy, whether it's spending, a bunch of other things. And so he has become the establishment candidate. It's sort of funny to see Jerry Falwell call him into his office. A lot is made of the fact that he's going out and courting the religious right group he wasn't too friendly with recently. But I've talked to people about how this is all working. What's happening is beginning to court him because they sent he's the frontrunner. And I've talked to all the other candidates, all the other candidates who are running. They say McCain is the frontrunner.

Larry Lemmons:
Even Frist?

David Brooks:
I haven't asked Frist, but I think people see this as the whole race, John McCain and one other person. They're competing to be that other person just as in the democratic side it will be hurricane Katrina, Hillary Ron ham Clinton. She's got tremendous skills. She's liked in the senate. That isn't always true especially of democratic nominees. I wouldn't say John Kerry was liked by everybody. I think her problems will be she doesn't necessarily trust other people. She's very guarded, and if you don't trust people that's hard for voters to trust you. That will be a personal thing, so either display or not display. But a McCain Hillary race would be an interesting race for host of us who are Washington political types because they're very good friends now. They would not be good friends. They are both very competitive people. That would be a race between two superstars.

Larry Lemmons:
Tom Delay is no longer majority leader. You think about his political demise. Is congress up for grabs? And will Tom Delay's exit affect that?

David Brooks:
I think congress is up for grabs in part because of Tom Delay himself but Delayism. And Delayism was a way of doing government. And it was to use all the tools of government to try to advance your partisan cause. And that meant spending a lot of money if you thought it would buy votes, it meant co-opting lobbyists if you felt it would help your party. The problem is the lobbyists' co-opted them. That led to this culture of self-dealing which republicans are aware and distressed about what happened. So delay created a culture where the congress has been behaving incoherently. They've been spending money on wild things unintelligently, running up deficits without really accomplishing that much. So I do think the congress is up for grabs. I think the house of representatives in particular is up for grabs. The republicans -- bush's approval rating is low. Republicans disastrously low, Democrats not high,, but as Newt Gingrich said and he nose something about this, if I were running the democratic party all I would say over and over again is, had enough? Had enough? That's not a bad thing to be said. The senate I think would be heart. I think if Jon Kyl were in any kind of trouble I would think then the senate could turn but I don't think that's true.

Larry Lemmons:
Well, speaking of, whatever happened to fiscal conservativism?

David Brooks:
Well, you know, what matters in Washington is less the philosophy you have it's where you sit. If you sit in the majority you're going to try to use money to buy votes. That's just what majority parties do. And the republicans did that. They did it through these earmarks, which are these little things congress would slip into bills in the middle of the night to pass favors to their special friends. When the republicans took over in 1994 there were 4,000 of these earmarks in the budget. Now there are about 15 to 20,000. So that's not fiscal discipline. And that's the corruption of being in office and that's why voters have to watch members of congress.

Larry Lemmons:
Well, please take out your crystal ball. Can you tell us what some of the driving issues will be in the upcoming election, and can you predict an outcome?

David Brooks:
Well, the driving issues are first the war. The war is effecting the republican standing, it's effecting bush's standing. Then as you get to the races you get too much more individual races. And I think it will be issue by issue. Out here it's obviously immigration is the dominant issue. Elsewhere it's not, actually. In Pennsylvania where there are some other key races. There you get strange things, symbolic issues like ANWR, drilling in ANWR. And some of it is just personal. So it's going to be a series of local races but with a general wind favoring the democrats. If I had to guess -- this is totally without value but this is what I do for a living is make guesses -- I would say the democrats will take the house and the republicans would keep the senate, Which I think would be the best for both parties. Because the republicans having all the control has made them a little arrogant, and the democrats having no power has made them a little bit irresponsible.

Michael Grant:
The 25-years southwest human development has been providing a variety of services for Arizona children from newborn to age 5. It was founded by a valley woman. I'll talk to her about the agency but first here's more on the program.

Announcer:
Five minutes at the end of the day or the hug that makes your day. Even the tears that go hand in hand with childhood. Make up the story of your relationship with your child. If you don't like the way your story is unfolding, the good fit center can help by providing mental health services for very young children and their families. Call the good fit center at 602-200-0434--- a program at southwest human development.

Michael Sauceda:
It's just one of the services for children and families provided by southwest human development. It was founded in phoenix in 1981. The nonprofit organization was founded to help build a positive future for young children and families in Arizona. It was created by early childhood professionals. It provides programs and services for families focusing on development of children from newborn to five years. Southwest human development started with six staff members to serve 175 children and families. It now has 500 staff members who service more than 50,000 children and families, mostly in Maricopa County. The agency offers services that cover child health and welfare, services for children with disabilities, a head start program, professional development and training and research-based early childhood development programs.

Michael Grant:
Recently I talked about southwest human development with its founder and director, Ginger Ward. Ginger, southwest human development is one of the largest nonprofits in the state.

Ginger Ward:
Yes, we are. We serve over 50,000 children and families each year. And I have a staff of about 550 child development professionals.

Michael Grant:
Are you getting tired after 25-years?

Ginger Ward:
Absolutely not. I am totally invigorated and we're doing bigger and better things all the time.

Michael Grant:
Why did you form it 25 years ago?

Ginger Ward:
Well, 25-years ago I thought it was a pretty simple concept. I was working in early childhood for a couple of years before I started southwest human development and saw there was a lack of services for very young children and their families who suffered from severe issues, social issues and other kinds of challenges. In addition to the lack of services, the quality of the services was pretty poor and services were a lot of times inaccessible to families and parents had to tell their story over and over and over again to try to get some help. So when I started it was with the idea of creating a system of support for families and then high quality early childhood programs.

Michael Grant:
Was the son September somewhat to create one stop I hesitate to call it shopping but maybe to bring closer together an array of services targeted obviously at that particular age group and those particular people with that set of needs?

Ginger Ward:
Yes. I think that not necessarily everybody coming to one place, but providing services in communities where families live, then where they went to go to the doctor's, to go shopping and those kinds of things. So actually thinking about all the services that could support young kids and their families and trying to put them together in a way that was coherent for families and also professionals in the field.

Michael Grant:
At this point in time, what's southwest human development's primary source of funding? Where do you get most of the money to make things go?

Ginger Ward:
At this point in time we have a combination of state and federal funds. And we also have a small portion of our funding that comes from corporate grants and foundation grants. But we are working right now on a new project called the Arizona institute for early childhood development that to expand programs that have no public funding and to form partnerships with more corporations and local foundations and individual donors.

Michael Grant:
Obviously involved deeply in head start programs, as I understand it, you both take those head start programs to schools and you also have some facilities yourself where you offer head start programs.

Ginger Ward:
Yes. We are operating head start programs in five different school districts in the phoenix area. And we also have an infant-toddler head start program. We've been operating that program for 23-years now. And it has given us a lot of basis for our research and evaluation that we've done on children and outcomes for children and families that have really paved the way for a lot of work we're doing today.

Michael Grant:
Remind us again what head start is.

Ginger Ward:
Head start is a preschool program for low-income families, from low -- children from low-income families. And also it's an infant toddler home visiting program for families who have kids younger than the age of three. In addition to the educational component of the program, there is a family support piece of the program, social services, and health consultants. So it really is a program that is targeting families to get their kids ready to go to school.

Michael Grant:
You mentioned data set. I mean, you've got 23-years, I think. You mentioned there's always controversy about what works and what doesn't. And often times unfortunately the response is, well, we don't have the right kind of linear studies. We haven't been able to track somebody from the age from the head start program through college or not as the case may be. Have you got some good linear data over a couple of decades?

Ginger Ward:
I think that we've got very good data on a number of our different projects. I think the thing that is exciting today is that after 20-years we have a strong foundation in just nationally on research -- through research and science about what really works for young kids and families. We know what young children need. We know what services work. We know how staffs have to be trained to do the service. So we don't really need any more research in the field, we just need to do what the research says and what science has been telling us for the last 20-years.

Michael Grant:
I want to make sure I ask you about -- you had a -- you have a new program called the birth to five help line.

Ginger Ward: Yes.

Michael Grant:
What's that about?

Ginger Ward:
The birth to five help line is a toll free number that families can call, care gives givers can call and also professionals in the childhood development asking questions about childhood development in the areas of sleep, nutrition, safety, are children reaching their developmental milestones. We're the only toll free number in the state of Arizona that serves this purpose. And the number is staffed with professionals, who are available all the time to answer people's questions.

Michael Grant:
So if a parent is concerned about any of those subjects they just get on the phone to that one and say, hey. Here's an issue for you and someone trained and hopefully competent will help them try to work through that?

Ginger Ward:
Yes, absolutely. We also refer people to different resources in the community. After 25-years it's still hard to figure out where to go if you have a young child that, you know, has a need. And we help direct people to resources. We have a backup group of nurses and psychologists and social workers and therapists that actually can further assist people if they have more complicated issues.

Michael Grant:
All right. Ginger ward, congratulations on 25-years for southwest human development, and we appreciate you joining us.

Ginger Ward:
Thank you so much for having me.

Announcer:
In the latest Eight opinion poll we asked people their views on immigration issues, including the state legislature's plan for funding border security measures. Sheriff Joe's posse members detained illegal immigrants and the minutemen building a wall at the borders. Those poll results Tuesday on Horizon.

Michael Grant:
Wednesday a look at how republican Hispanics are fighting stereotypes. Thursday, a look at some of the cases of the Supreme Court. Thanks for joining us. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

Announcer:
If you have comments about Horizon, pleads contact us at the addresses listed on your screen. Your name and comments may be used on a future edition of Horizon.

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Horizon is made possible by contributions from the friends of eight, members of your Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

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