Ted Simons: Coming up next on "Arizona Horizon." A panel of journalists takes look back at the news of 2012 and predicts what is ahead in the coming years. It's our journalists prediction show next on "Arizona Horizon."
"Arizona Horizon" is made possible by contributions from the friends of 8, members of your Arizona PBS station. Thank you.
Ted Simons: Good evening, and welcome to "Arizona Horizon." I'm Ted Simons. It's time for our annual journalists roundtable prediction show, and joining me to preview 2013 are Doug Maceachern: of the Arizona Republic, Howard Fischer: of capitol media services and Steve Goldstein: of KJZZ Radio. Before we look ahead to the coming year let's look back at how the panel did in predicting what would happen in 2012. Producer Steve Clawson has the recap.
Steve Clawson: With 2012 being an election year, most predictions centered on who would win the various races. Starting with Arizona's Republican preferential election in February.
Doug Maceachern: I think Mitt Romney will win.
Steve Goldstein: I will go with Doug, Mitt Romney is going to win Arizona.
Howard Fischer:I think Romney is going to take Arizona. He does have organizations here. I certainly think the LDS influence helps.
Steve Clawson: Mitt Romney easily won with 47% of the vote. After Arizona, who did our panel see emerging as the eventual Republican presidential nominee?
Doug Maceachern: I think Romney will win.
Steve Goldstein: And will ultimately win the Republican nomination, as well.
Howard Fischer: I will say a deadlock convention and we have Chris Christie running.
Steve Clawson:Mitt Romney went out to win the Republican nomination earning the right to face President Barack Obama in November.
Ted Simons: Will President Barack Obama be re-elected?
Doug Maceachern: Yes, and I think that, that the Republican wins.
Ted Simons: I say the Republican wins? Yes. Interesting.
Ted Simons: Will the President be re-elected?
Howard Fischer:I think that he will.
Steve Clawson:The question then turned to how many electoral votes the candidate would receive.
Doug Maceachern: I am sure it will come down to one swing state. I think it will be ultimately 276 votes. What do you make? 278. 276, 278. This is like the price is right. Yes. 298,
Steve Clawson:President Barack Obama, he won, he will not win in time, are Florida and Virginia. President Barack Obama won with 332 electoral votes and captured both Florida and Virginia for second time. With the presidential election out of the way, attention turned to the Senate seated held by the retiring Jon Kyl.
Doug Maceachern: I think that Jeff lake will replace Jon Kyl.
Howard Fischer:I think that Carmona takes it.
Steve Goldstein: I have to go with flake although his name recognition is not there, he has the money advantage.
Steve Clawson: Jeff defeated Richard by three points. Our panel was then asked to predict the breakdown of the Arizona congressional delegation after the November election.
Steve Goldstein: I am going to go with six Republicans and three Democrats.
Ted Simons: Ok, Howie, give us numbers here.
Howard Fischer:I like that number. Given, of course, we have to see the redistricting maps which keep getting changed but I think a 6-3 breakdown makes a lot of sense.
Doug Maceachern: I think 5-4 breakdown, is possible given the new redistricting maps.
Steve Clawson:Arizona's delegation will have a 5-4 democratic advantage in the new house of representatives. With uncertainty, surrounding some races, our panel was asked if any incumbent member of Arizona's delegation would be defeated.
Steve Goldstein: I will say two. I will say Paul gosar and Raul will both lose.
Howard Fischer:I think gosar has problems with anne kirkpatrick running against him. Ben Quayle, maybe, and some of this has to do with the redistricting lines. If he's in the same district as schwiger, all bets are off.
Doug Maceachern: I think it's possible that gosar could lose.
Steve Clawson:Both he and Raul were re-elected, but Ben Quayle was defeated in the primary battle against David. With all seats up for grabs, would Democrats retake control in November?
Doug Maceachern: I think if there is a deadlock certainty, in this coming election cycle, it's the fact that they will not.
Ted Simons: What do you think, Howie?
Howard Fischer: no, I think that there is still enough dissatisfaction that even if Obama does manage to win reelection, I think that they like the idea of the house being Republican, in Republican hands.
Ted Simons: Steve?
Steve Goldstein: If the economy takes off, there is a chance that Obama gets more people to the polls but I would say no.
Steve Clawson: Republicans did retain control of the house, but lost few seats in the process. With Democrats controlling the Senate would Republicans be able to take it back from the democrats in 2012.
Steve Goldstein: I am going to say narrowly yes. Yes.
Ted Simons: Yes? What do you think?
Howard Fischer: That, I don't see. Again, it was, a good year for Republicans last time, but, you know, with the President at the top of the ticket, and that brings out a lot of folks, I don't see it.
Doug Maceachern: I think Republicans will take control of the Senate.
Steve Clawson: Democrats not only retain control of the Senate, but picked up couple of seats. Here in Arizona, an annual question is always, when will the Arizona legislature adjourn for the year?
Steve Goldstein: I'm going to say April 24th.
Howard Fischer: I'm going to give it a little more flexibility. I'm going to let's say play 1st or 2nd.
Doug Maceachern: I would say April 17th.
Steve Clawson: The Arizona legislature adjourned sine die on may 3rd. Our panel was then asked to predict the breakdown of Republicans and Democrats in the state house and Senate after the November election.
Steve Goldstein: The Democrats in the Senate will lose another seat, it will be 22-8 Republicans, and the Republicans will lose couple of seats in the house, we're going to make it 28-22 Republican in the house.
Doug Maceachern: I'm with Steve, that the Republicans will have a seat at 22, and then add couple in the house to 42.
Howard Fischer: I think that the Democrats pick up some seats again, the President at the top of the ticket, it could be a 36-24 house and an 18-12 Senate Republican.
Steve Clawson: The Republicans lost seats in both the house and Senate. The GOP will have a 17-13 advantage in the Senate, and in the house, it's a 36-24 advantage.
Ted Simons: Will the D'Backs repeat as nationally, national champions?
No. I do not think so because they have too many guys with career years players who spent a lot of time in the minors, and I think maybe the giants with their payroll will come back.
Doug Maceachern: I think that they do repeat.
Steve Clawson:The D'Backs finished third in the national league west. 13 games behind the world series San Francisco giants, and our panel asked for long shot and sure thing prediction.
Doug Maceachern: The sure thing is straightforward. I think that Republicans will increase the numbers in both the U.S. house and the Senate. The long shot, I think the Mayans will be proved right.
Howard Fischer:My sure shot is that the legislature will come up with a plan to revamp the, the redistricting commission. My long shot is, is that the supreme court will, will uphold part of, of 10-70 and keep the injunction in place on the rest of it.
Steve Goldstein: My sure thing is that it's a along-time bashas chain, which emerged from bankruptcy will sell off their parts and Eddie will leave retirement and retire in another state. Sure thing? My sure thing. Wow. My long shot, which is longer, considering I predicted President Barack Obama would win reelection, if Republican wins, in 2012, the presidential race, someone will talk Jon Kyl out of retirement and he will be the CIA director.
Steve Clawson:And now it's time to reveal who did the best job of predicting 2012 outcomes. Out of possible 18 points, Doug Maceachern finished with seven. Steve Goldstein had nine, and Howie Fischer wins with a total of ten points.
Ted Simons: And that's two years in a row for Howie. Congratulations, Howie.
Howard Fischer: 10-18 wins it, which suggests, well, you know what it means about our predictions. Yes.
Ted Simons: And congratulations. I can only take so much of that. [Laughter] Let's get to the prediction, and we have a lot to get to. And we'll start with gun control. And the aftermath of the school shootings in Connecticut, the question is, will Congress pass a bill, gun control bill and let's make it specific. On assault weapons.
Doug Maceachern: No, I don't believe that there is going to be any kind of ban on assault weapons, I do think, however, that there will be some kind of, of control on the size of the clip that, that, that you can use in an assault weapon.
Ted Simons: Assault weapons ban, what do you think?
Howard Fischer: No, because you look at what happened a couple weeks ago in Connecticut, and you say, ok. There wasn't, you know, assault weapons, like any other weapon, just looks different. So, I'm with Doug on that, and I am also with the agreement that perhaps maybe after the gabby Giffords thing that the size of the magazine will be an issue, particularly for handguns, in terms of whether it's eight, nine, or ten, that's it.
Steve Goldstein: No, there is too much contentiousness in the house for another Republicans to go for that. There is going to have to be an nra negativity as there is towards the Governor about taxes.
Ted Simons: Let's get to immigration, will Congress pass an immigration reform bill?
Steve Goldstein: In 2013, I will say yes. Although, it will not have all the legs of the stool that people want. In will be some sort of border security aspect to it. Some sort of guest worker program, but there will not an path to citizenship, not the reform that many on the left want.
Ted Simons: A major, minor bill.
Howard Fischer: Yes. I think it will, you know, narrower. I think you will see some version of a Dream Act but, more watered down, closer to what Senator Kyl had proposed. To deal with those who are, who were brought here as children without the path to citizenship. I think that the President would like, and I think that that's as far as it goes, and that's it.
Ted Simons: And this passes?
Howard Fischer:I think, I think that, that some, some diluted form of the Dream Act does pass.
Ted Simons: We're talking passing major immigration reform.
Doug Maceachern: I really do think that something will happen and it will be something, it will be some sort of legal status short of citizenship. And I think that it, it just -- to finish that thought, I think that it would, it will have some, something be contingent of some passage of some, some additional legislation, having to do with, with universal use of E-verify.
Ted Simons: Howie, will a supreme court justice announce retirement in 2013?
Howard Fischer:I think at least one will, perhaps two.
Ted Simons: What do you think, Steve?
Steve Clawson: One. And I will go out on a limb.
Ted Simons: You got name?
Steve Clawson: Yes.
Ted Simons: And what do you think?
Doug Maceachern: Honestly, I am tempted to say yes, because they are so old and they are so, there is so many health concerns among them all. I'm going to stop this right now. No.
Ted Simons: All right. So we have got someone changing from the locks that may turn everyone else. All right. Will any big names announce for Governor?
Steve Clawson: It depends on what he think about big names, if we consider Ken Bennett to be big name, yes. I will throw out two other names because I lost already to Howie last year, one person I would not be shocked, Vernon Parker. The person I would be shocked by but would not completely collapse is Russell Pearce.
Howard Fischer: With the definition of what's big. First, I don't think that Ken will announce specifically, he's gotten exploratory committee. I think that Fred Duval will put his name in because he's already -- heck, he's got several things for the Governor's association. I'm not sorry, I don't think Vernon Parker running. He lost another case in the Ninth Circuit, so, not going to happen there.
Ted Simons: What do you think, Doug? Big names.
Doug Maceachern: Yeah, again, it depends on what you mean, but I think you will see exploratory committees formed, and that qualifies as an announcement. But, Doug ducey, I think you will see. I think you will say Bill Montgomery.
Ted Simons: For Governor?
Doug Maceachern: Yes. And scot Smith.
Ted Simons: Ok. We'll keep those names in mind.
Howard Fischer:Bill Montgomery? Really? I have sense. Well, no, no. You just lost point there. Thank you.
Ted Simons: And let's get now to the independent redistricting commission. This will be, a, themed question, a paragraph as opposed to an a, b, yes, no. The state of the commission legal challenges, at this time, next year. Give us a scenario. What will we see as far as the independent redistricting commission, and it's court happenings?
Doug Maceachern: I think that you see, um, a, a, one of these cases succeed based on the in-- on the, the consistently underpopulated districts and overpopulated Republican districts.
Howard Fischer: I think that, that they will all be resolved, that the, at the trial level to get into Doug's issue of, of which way they are resolved. I think that that's the most promising one for, for the, for the challengers because I think that, that the issue with the legislature suit, we believe we get to draw congressional boundaries as going nowhere. The open meetings case is dead. And, and so, that, that leaves that one, and they have -- when we are sitting around this table a year from now, we'll have to know something because of the fact that there is a 2014 race coming up. And even if it's only resolved at the trial level or the Federal Court has redrawn the lines, we will have some resolution of the trial court level.
Steve Clawson: I agree with Doug quite a bit, although I left my ged at home so I will add this. I think, there is a bit of me that wants to say that, that, that the courts will not want to step on the idea that voters approved this idea of an independent commission, whether people think it is or not so I think they will tread lightly.
Ted Simons: When will the legislature adjourn, sine die?
Steve Clawson: Let me see, may 16th. Wait second, I had that -- you looked at my sheet. Really? [Laughter] That's not fair. Come on, Howie. He's cheating, teacher.
Howard Fischer:May 16th. That's what I have got down.
Steve Clawson: And may 15th or may 17th.
Doug Maceachern: There are so many days, guys. I think it will happen -- I think it will be record or a near record, short of, a short session, and I will say, maybe sometime look April 7th.
Steve Clawson: Wow.
Ted Simons: Will scandal force member of the Arizona legislature to resign? Just one.
Doug Maceachern: You are getting into a sticky territory because I would, actually, name that legislator. So, but I will not going to and I will say yes.
Ted Simons: What's the name? Give us a name. You are not going to do it, are you?
Doug Maceachern: Well this, person has not committed this vial act yet. Woe. Tune in next year, folks.
Howard Fischer:And I don't think that it's going to be scandal. I think there will be challenges to couple folks elected, you know, the guy who could not figure out whether Avondale or goodyear was his home. But I don't see anybody voluntarily resigning.
Steve Clawson: I will say yes because there are cameras everywhere, and we think about the silly thing with Dennis Welch and Governor brewer, I will say yes, but, I don't feel confident about that.
Ted Simons: Howie will Tom horn be attorney general at this time next year?
Howard Fischer: Yes, I think that, that we will have dragged through the whole issue of, yeah, finally, hopefully we'll have some resolution of the. Hit and run, and you, and we will certainly have, have the civil case pursued, but, I don't see anything that's going to force him out. This is not like a disbarment or like an Andy Thomas case.
Ted Simons: What do you think, Doug?
Doug Maceachern: I think that it will hang onto his office, I think that the Feds, especially, have demonstrated remarkable capacity to disappoint people that want to act to see the action on their part. And, I think that will continue.
Steve Clawson: I say yes because hebrus--
Ted Simons: poetic justice.
Steve Clawson: That's what it is.
Ted Simons: National jobless rate, Howie, in December of 2013.
Howard Fischer:National jobless rate. I think it will be 7.8%. I think we still have a ways to go to get to the point where the fed is ready to start tightening up the money supply.
Steve Clawson: 7.7.
Doug Maceachern: I think it's going to be a little bit lower, and I am not being positive about that because I think that there will be people finishing to drop out of the job market, and that's what's going to, to push the, push it down to 7.2.
Ted Simons: 7.2. All right. How hot will it get, the high temperature at the airport, the official high temperature for Phoenix next year?
Doug Maceachern: I'm staying traditional. I think it will be hot. I will say 117 high.
Ted Simons: What do you think, Howie? 119.
Howard Fischer:119. I think we'll get close to the record again. I think it will be a mild winter, and I think we're looking at pushing some, close to the record book for a few days next year.
Steve Clawson: I will say 115.
Ted Simons: 115 is it?
Steve Clawson: We might have like nine in a row of that, but yes, that will be it.
Ted Simons: Ok. Let's get to some sports questions here. Steve, we'll start with you. How far will the u of a go in the NCAA basketball tournament.
Steve Clawson: I will say Sweet 16 and knocked out at that point.
Ted Simons: Sweet 16?
Steve Clawson: Win two games in the tournament.
Howard Fischer:I was -- same thing, I think they will get to the Sweet 16 and that's about it before the whole thing falls apart.
Ted Simons: This is the u of a basketball team.
Doug Maceachern: I think that they are too young. I think that they will win game in the tournament, and then, and then --
Ted Simons: Just one win? Yeah. All right. Let's go to football, who will win the asu, u of a rivalry football game next year.
Doug Maceachern: I have got to say I like asu's chances. I thought it was fun game in 2012, I think it will be, another great game in 2013, but I think as, they will come out on top.
Ted Simons: What do you think, Howie? I did some graduate work at the u of a so I have got to go with the wildcats.
Ted Simons: That's about as scientific of an answer as you can get.
Doug Maceachern: As you are going to get from me.
Ted Simons: Steve.
Steve Clawson: A U. because of the u of a, fifth year, senior, quarterback, graduated.
Ted Simons: Cardinals, starting quarterback. Is starting, the starting quarterback come next season, will this – three-part question, hang with plea. Three parts here, a, b, or c. A, currently on the Cardinals' roster. Will the starting quarterback. B be on another NFL team's roster. Or c, be currently on college team's roster.
Howard Fischer:You are not going to push for d, the high school graduate that they are going to shove in?
Ted Simons: Not if I don't have.
I think it's b, and I think that whoever going to be the starting quarterback is someone who is not on the Cardinals' roster.
Ted Simons: But in the NFL? In the NFL. What do you think?
Steve Clawson: I want to be -- I don't want you to spit on me, but a. So you think -- ok. You say cobb.
Ted Simons: Doug?
Doug Maceachern: They will lose so many season ticket-holders if they try to do that. I'm just guessing that it will be a quarterback currently in the NFL now. Alex Smith, probably.
Ted Simons: You think they will get Smith?
Doug Maceachern: I think so.
Ted Simons: Wow. Ted Simons:
Doug, we'll stay with us, D'Backs, will the Diamondbacks make the playoffs?
Doug Maceachern: I am such homer on this. Sticking with it, though. Yeah. I think they are putting together good team, they have great pitching and I think that they will do ok. And, I think that upton will, will prove all the doubters wrong.
Ted Simons: Howie?
Howard Fischer:After couple of years of predicting I will finally turn around and say yes, I think that they can do it this time. Now, how far they go is another question. But yeah, I think that they can get there.
Steve Clawson: I still think the left side is terrible so I will say no.
Ted Simons: Not making the playoffs? Even that one game. Ok, no. Wow.
Ted Simons: We'll stick with you, Mr. Optimistic. Ok. And will the coyotes be in glendale when the season starts next season?
Steve Clawson: That's a good question. We're going to say provided, let's put this way.
Ted Simons: Next fall. Are the coyotes in glendale?
Steve Clawson: Yes, with Greg Jameson as the owner. Everything works itself out? To the extent that they will lose less money than they have and an owner who -- for that point, I will say yes.
Ted Simons: Bonus question. Oh, gosh. Will they be the Phoenix coyotes or the Arizona coyotes or the glendale coyotes or the west gate coyotes, what is it going to be?
Steve Clawson: Well, Ted, since worked for the Cardinals, I will say the Arizona coyotes since you forced me into it.
Ted Simons: I did. That one doesn't count. Ok. And both questions.
Howard Fischer:I think that, that they will be there. I think that we're over the biggest hurdle, we have got new administration coming in, and that's next month, and I think that, that they will be there, assuming that there is season. I don't see the -- the glendale coyotes doesn't play, you know, is it Phoenix coyotes? I think that, that, you don't want to change the name, I think it will be the Phoenix coyotes.
Doug Maceachern: I think that it's all about, all about marketing, expanding their fan base, and yes, they will be there, and yes, they will be there, the Arizona coyotes.
Ted Simons: All right. Time for our long shot and sure shot predictions. Doug, we'll start with you. Let's start with your long shot and give us your a short shot.
Doug Maceachern: Through the show I've been revising and re, revising this. So, this sure thing is not really so much of sure thing, I'm finding. I'm going to say that, that Governor brewer will not take any step towards running for reelection beyond continuing to suggest that she can if she wants to. I think that will be the teaser that we'll see throughout 2013.
Ted Simons: All right. Give us your long shot?
Doug Maceachern: My long shot is that Trevor Bower recently traded from the Diamondbacks to the Cleveland Indians will be the American League Rookie of the Year.
Ted Simons: Oh, my goodness. Wow. Howie, please.
Howard Fischer: My sure shot is despite everything that's gone on, we will not only have gun legislation, but we will have gun legislation and we'll get out of one chamber of the state house.
Ted Simons: The state? Yes.
Howard Fischer: There will be some bill to expand gun rights despite everything that's occurred. And I don't think it's going anywhere. Ultimately, but that's another thing. My long shot is sort of variation on Doug's. I think that sometime between now and a year from now Jan brewer will say, I thought about it and I am not going to seek a third term.
Steve Clawson: Ok. My sure thing is because of the result, of the result of prop 21, the primary went down and neither Smith nor Holman will run for Governor. My long shot, because of the pathetic nature of the suns having a satisfaction guaranteed night, former lieutenants of Jerry Colangelo will put bid together to buy the team.
Ted Simons: Including sun bryan?
Steve Clawson: Yes, he will leave the raptors, and it not be riot but it's bold.
Ted Simons: Regarding yours with the Governor, do you think that she will say it's possible that I will do it if I want to but she won't do it because of a perceived lame duck status?
Steve Clawson: Yeah, I think that she doesn't want to be considered a lame duck. And one way to do it, even though everyone knows you can't is to claim that you can.
Howard Fischer:I think that the, the, the other side is, the party folks are going to come to her and say, as long as you are the 800-pound Gorilla in this thing, you know, you have got to make decision. You cannot leave everyone else hanging. Obviously Doug is going to get into it no matter what, Ken Bennett is already in it. I think the issue comes down to she's going to be forced to make statement saying, yes, I think I could but I'm not going to. She's going to have to get out of the way.
Ted Simons: Steve, what do you say? You got whole bunch of folks ready to stampede on the Republican side for, for just to take their final opportunity here, and if she is standing in the way, what happens.
Steve Clawson: Relevance is a big thing, and we get an ego in politicians, if they want to be relevant and that's what she wants, my feeling is that she would be such poor candidate because people will be tired of her, and that ultimately, she won't run, but I'm with Doug, she's going to try to stay relevant and then not do anything.
Ted Simons: For purely conversation, on scale of 0-10, 0 being warfare, and 10 being holding hands and skipping through the daisies, the relationship between the Governor and the legislature this year.
Howard Fischer: I think it remains to be tested. I think with Andy Biggs in there, it will be a little tricky Andy is not as big of a fan as the, the special financial breaks that, this the Governor likes and that Andy toboggan -- that Andy tobin likes. I think they will hang together because not everybody go south. I think that, to use the question, I think there will be a dozen vetoes, but I think it will be relatively smooth.
Steve Clawson: I think proposition 204, the fact that the Governor was against the sales tax, I think that will help some connection there. And I'm going to say three. So -- I'm sorry, a seven.
Ted Simons: Seven. So skipping through daffodils.
Steve Clawson: Right. Let me trip bit but skipping.
Ted Simons: What do you think?
Doug Maceachern: I think there could be some consternation, and it could make me wrong in terms of the number of days the legislature will be in session but I think that there will be some conflict over Medicaid, over the numbers, who gets to qualify. There may be some movement on the part of the Feds that makes it possible for, for the Governor to support, but she'll bump heads with the legislature.
Ted Simons: We would have asked the Medicaid expansion question, but it's too complicated. There is no way to get scoring done. Good stuff and we'll see you this time next year. And that is it for now. I'm Ted Simons. Thank you very much for joining us. You have a great evening.