Horizon, Host: Ted Simons

August 30, 2005


Host: Michael Grant

Census


  • In an effort to quantify ballooning Maricopa County population figures, a mid-decade census survey will be mailed out to residents next week. The survey is important because the state returns nearly $1 billion in tax dollars each year to cities and towns based on population.
Guests:
  • Senator Jon Kyl -
  • George Pettit - 2005 Census Survey oversight subcommittee and also Gilbert City Manager


View Transcript
>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," immigration reform and border security are among the topics U.S. Senator Senator Jon Kyl joins us to talk about. Plus, a mid-decade census survey will mean more than a billion dollars a year in shared revenue in Maricopa County. We'll talk about what's at stake in your community. Those stories next on "Horizon."

>>Announcer:
"Horizon" is made possible by the friends of channel 8, members who provide financial support to this Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. Welcome to "Horizon." First up, the latest on hurricane Katrina, paralyzing parts of the gulf coast, two levees broke this morning, sending several feet of water into the heart of New Orleans, one day after the city appeared to have escaped widespread destruction. An estimated 80\% of New Orleans is now under water. Louisiana's Governor is ordering people out of the city. In Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, 59 people are dead, but that number is expected to climb into the hundreds. More than 2 million people are without power. Storm damage is expected to hit at least $25 billion. The American Red Cross says this is the largest mobilization of resources for a single natural disaster in its history. The Grand Canyon chapter of the Red Cross here in Phoenix is actively involved in the disaster relief operation. 25 volunteers from here are deployed to help get storm victims shelter, feed them and provide counseling. Two emergency response vehicles will be provided for feeding victims. An emergency communications response vehicle will provide satellite communications support. The fastest way you can help people affected by hurricane Katrina is by making a financial contribution to the National Disaster Relief Fund. The number to call is 1-800-help-now. That's 1-800-help-now. The disaster in the gulf coast is obviously the prevailing concern across the country. At our nation's capitol, leaders are gathering to put together a disaster relief plan. U.S. Senator Senator Jon Kyl joins us here. Senator Kyl is chairman of the Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security subcommittee and will talk about his border security and immigration reform bill in a moment. In the meantime, there are standing mechanisms in place for emergency disaster declarations and those kinds of things. This does seem to be, however, a disaster of enormous proportions.

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
One of the largest hurricanes ever with incredible damage. We had a conference call this morning of the senate Republican leadership. It is our intention to put together what's called a supplemental emergency appropriation bill to immediately fund the requirements for cleanup, for restoration of the area, for the power, the repair of levees and getting people back on their feet. People's whose homes were damaged can apply for funds under these relief bills. And we'll try to get those folks back on their feet as soon as possible.

>> Michael Grant:
You know, the enormity of this, I don't think we're going to know for quite some time. One of the other aspects of it is unlike say something like 9/11, there is a -- there is a major impact in terms of oil import capabilities, oil production capabilities, and oil refining capabilities, and you may see -- Lord knows the prices are bad enough right now, you may see the prices of oil going much higher? Let's get a fresh microphone on you.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
Fortunately, at least here in the State of Arizona, we get the bulk of our oil from the west coast refined in California, transported from California to Arizona, from there, and so we shouldn't be as directly affected by this event in terms of our gasoline supply here in Arizona, as they will be in the Midwest part of the country.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's shift to border security. We talked about the measure that you introduced last time you were on the program. What's the likelihood that some measure, perhaps including yours or an amalgam of various bills put together will clear this year?

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
Again, we talked about that in our conference call this morning. The majority leader of the senate said he really wanted to take up immigration reform before the end of our session this year. That means probably to take it up in late October, hopefully to conclude it no later than early November. That time is important because the house will also have to act on immigration. Their bill will be different than ours. There will be some amalgam of ideas. There are several different bills and we'll take different parts from different bills, put them together, and then there will have to be a conference committee with the House of Representatives. My own guess is even though I wish we could get this done this year, is that the conference committee will probably extend over into next year and will conclude our work early next year, send a bill to the president, hopefully get it signed so it can begin to work sometime next year. It would be great to complete it this fall. The press of other legislative business is such that may not be possible.

>> Michael Grant:
Speaking of the press of other legislative business, there is the Supreme Court nomination. Is the senate going to act on that in September?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
Yes, and that's one of the things that we have to do. There are other things we have to do, like pass the appropriation bills, fund our troops with the defense bill, and some other things, so there is an awful lot to accomplish, but we've left room in the schedule to ensure that we have a full week for the Roberts' nomination after he is cleared the Senate Judiciary Committee, which I expect him to do the third week in September. So the last week in September will be on the floor with his nomination. There will be a vote. He's not going to be filibustered in my view, and he will be confirmed, my guess is, the Thursday or Friday before the first Monday in October, which is when the new term of the Supreme Court begins.

>> Michael Grant:
Any prediction on the vote counts in the senate?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
I hate to say. I regret to say that my guess is it'll be more partisan than it should be. I think most Democrats will not support him. Virtually all Republicans will, if not all. I wish that he would have more Democrat support, but we'll see. It may be that the hearings go much better for him than I think they might. It may be that something will be revealed that causes less support. I don't think so. I think we've seen now all of the material that is going to come to light. It's now simply a matter of asking him questions, getting his responses, evaluating all of that, voting on him in the committee, and then voting on the full -- at the full senate level.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's go to Iraq for just a couple of minutes. What's your view on where the constitution is or is not at this point in time?

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
Some folks who have been there and looked at the issue carefully have indicated -- and I don't know whether this is really true -- but they indicate that one of the reasons there is not more Sunni support demonstrated for the constitution is they are simply afraid. They are scared to death, and they should be. There have been several Sunni leaders, politicians, people helping to draft the constitution assassinated, but the feeling is that once the matter goes to a vote, that the Sunni community is not necessarily going to come out in strong opposition to the constitution. There could be a lot of support for it. So the expectation is that it will be approved when they have their referendum on the constitution, and this would be a very good sign indeed. But there is always the possibility that enough people in enough provinces would vote against it that it wouldn't achieve the majority that is required under the agreement that was established earlier.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's be optimistic and make the assumption that we've got a favorable referendum in October on the constitution. If I recall correctly, elections are scheduled for December.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
December, correct.

>> Michael Grant:
To seat the government under that constitution. At that point in time, it seems to me a fair measure of our mission there has been accomplished. Is it time at that time for us to start pulling troops from Iraq?

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
Remember, there were two primary reasons for our action there, one of which was, of course, to remove Saddam Hussein, who posed a threat not just to us, but to the Iraqi people and to enable them to establish a new self-representative government. That's one of the reasons. But the other reason was the threat to the United States and rest of the world posed by what we thought were weapons of mass destruction, which did not turn out in large numbers to be there, but nevertheless, with Iraq having the capability of quickly constituting that capability, the elimination of Iraq as a threat from terrorism against the United States or Europe or direct military action against its neighbors. The removal of that threat is accomplished by the establishment of a Democratic government, but the removal of the threat of terrorists is not accomplished until we can say we've secured the country, that it does not need to fear being taken over by terrorists, that the insurgency that exists there now is not going to succeed, and that we've disrupted the terrorism mechanism there in the country today. That may take longer than December. My guess is it's going to take another year or so before we can say that we've achieved that degree of military success.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's come back to the State of Arizona. Issues popped up in the past week, 10 days, in fact a legal defense fund is being assembled on Arizona's behalf, a water war may be brewing between the upper States and the lower states over quite honestly an issue that I was not very familiar with, this is this tributary issue. How do you see that?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
Well, I say to all mothers, if you want to make sure that your son or daughter is well provided for in the future, instruct that child to become a water lawyer, because with every solution to a problem, two more problems arise, as long as water is the squares commodity it is in the west, there will be legal disputes.

>> Michael Grant:
Water doesn't run downhill, it runs to money.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
It runs to money.

>> Michael Grant:
That's right.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
And there have been a lot of funny sayings about whiskey for drinking and water for fighting', but the key here is to understand that even though we resolved a lot of the internal conflicts among Arizonans, primarily Indian tribes making claims for water in the historic Gila River water settlement bill last year, we still have some problems with our neighbors that have to be resolved, many of them were resolved years ago, but because of drought conditions and the growth of particularly Arizona, and especially Nevada, there are new demands on the water, and therefore, new issues arise, and we will have to resolve the issues between the upper basin states and the lower basin states of California, Nevada and Arizona, and perhaps some issues between some of the lower basin states. Hopefully through negotiation, hopefully we won't have to get to litigation. That may be federal legislative fixes down the road, but everyone is approaching this with the attitude that we need to stick together and resolve these issues through negotiation, if at all possible. That's much preferable to having to fight with them in the court or legislative arena.

>> Michael Grant:
Worst case scenario has been projected to be one half of the million-five Arizona has got in its Colorado river water allocation. Is that a realistic worst case in your opinion?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
I'm not precisely sure. I suppose you could say it's a worst case, but there are a lot of things that are available to us before we would get to that point. And I don't want to scare people here. It is probable that we're going to have to face some kind of action down the road here. Change is hard, but our California friends, for example, have taken a lot of water that Arizona was entitled to under the C.A.P. Upper basin states think we're taking too much of the water. We have obligations to Mexico. All of these things are in play. Plus, there are some new environmental concerns on protecting the Colorado river, and that requires that we keep more water in the river rather than taking it off and using it for ourselves, but they are wonderful opportunities to augment the water supply through things like cloud seeding that people have heard about through canal lining and through other mechanisms. Bottom line here, people shouldn't be afraid. The great history of Arizona -- one of the great aspects of it is people have always been forward thinking, forward looking when it comes to our water problems. People are anticipating these problems. We're thinking about them ahead of the time that the problems are really going to be on us, and I think we'll be able to get them resolved.

>> Michael Grant:
You obviously were key in that settlement that you mentioned. In fact, I can recall two or three years ago you -- I think we were off the air, but you were saying this year I think is the year. It took a couple more years than expected.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
We finally got it.

>> Michael Grant:
With something like this contemplated, when that settlement was put together, because obviously if we were to lose that kind of allocation, those waters would not be available to fuel the settlement.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
That's right. To some extent, the settlement anticipates the possibility that water that we currently have would not be available, but certainly not to the extent of losing half of our C.A.P. supply. That would be a catastrophe in the context of the settlement we put together. We did understand that there were potential threats. I just don't want people to panic here and think we're going to lose half of our water supply. That's not going to happen, but it is going to require a lot of work by a lot of people working in a totally bipartisan way. I talked with the Governor before this today, for example, and we're all committed toward working together ensure that together with our neighbors, we do the best to preserve the water and to allocate it in a manner that is -- that meets the legal requirements of the compact that the Colorado river allocations are based upon. And if some hothead in one of the states decides to start filing lawsuits, it will be a problem, because we'll have to defend they will and who knows what the outcome will be. I don't think that will happen. I think through negotiation and good will, we can resolve these issues.

>> Michael Grant:
All right, Arizona Senator Senator Jon Kyl, my condolences on having to return to the nation's capitol, but give it your best shot.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
We've got tough issues, but they'll be great to work on, thanks.

>> Michael Grant:
Shared revenue in Maricopa County communities is currently being funded by population figures that were compiled from the 2000 census. A number of the cities in the valley have expanded and need a new count to distribute the funding more equitably. In a moment we will talk about what some of those communities stand to receive. First, Merry Lucero tells us what we can expect from the questionnaire.

>> Merry Lucero:
Count me in. That's the slogan on signs lining Central Avenue in Phoenix. They urge people to fill out and mail back the mid-decade census surveys that will arrive in one in 13 Maricopa County mailboxes in the coming days.

>> Jay Occhiogrosso:
Basically the questions are did you live here on September 1st, if you did, how many people lived here. Then we ask for the names of the people who lived there as well as their gender.

>> Merry Lucero:
Local census workers have challenges to meet getting people to return the questionnaire.

>>Jay Occhiogrosso:
First, when it arrives, trying to discriminate it from junk mail which people throw away, we try our best to make it stand out, and let everybody know that this is legitimate business, very important, and some other things that get in the way are people not trusting the fact that this is confidential. We never share information with anybody. The IRS, the INS, FBI, anybody like that. It's totally confidential. Nobody outside of the census bureau will see anything that you put on your form.

>>Merry Lucero:
And there are serious penalties for sharing census information.

>> Jay Occhiogrosso:
Anything that's on there is protected by Title 13, which means that if anybody in this office or anybody who works for the census bureau were to disseminate this information any further than other census bureau employees, they would face a quarter million fine and five years in prison.

>> Merry Lucero:
The census bureau has done extensive public education and even public service announcements with local personalities, and will make every effort to get a response to the survey.

>> Jay Occhiogrosso:
What will happen, at first a mailer will go out with a blue census questionnaire. Hopefully we'll get a lot of return from that first mailing. If not, the people who don't mail back, we'll send a reminder postcard two weeks later. Hopefully that'll get more response. The people who haven't responded still, we'll send a second questionnaire two weeks after the postcard, four weeks after the first questionnaire, and hopefully that'll get a good majority of the remainder of the folks who may have thrown it away or disregarded it.

>> Merry Lucero:
Those who still don't respond will get a phone call and ultimately a census worker knocking at the door. The survey costs an estimated $7.5 million to do paid for by local communities and federal sources. The population count will be the basis for distributing a billion dollars a year of shared revenue in Maricopa County.

>> Michael:
Joining me now with more on census 2005, George Pettit, the chairman of the census survey oversight subcommittee and also Gilbert City manager. George thanks for joining us.

>> George Pettit:
Thanks for having me.

>> Michael Grant:
I have to assume there are valley cities that have real dollars at stake here?

>> George Pettit:
There is a keen interest in the state shared revenues in terms of sales tax, revenue tax, gasoline tax, all of those things that come true and they can only be adjusted based on a census. That's the reason behind this particular survey, and this particular case, for example, Gilbert, right now, we're receiving state shared revenues based upon a population of 109,000, which was our count in 2000 and now our population estimate is around 175,000. So there is about a 60\% shortfall in the case of Gilbert and other valley communities have similar problems.

>> Michael Grant:
I would expect maybe a Chandler to be in the same kind of model?

>> George Pettit:
Any number of communities, yes.

>> Michael Grant:
Buckeye?

>> George Pettit:
The West Valley has exploded, I think anywhere from Queen Creek that people don't think of in terms of being the metropolitan area. They have grown leaps and bounds next to us. Other communities that are still growing very quickly and rapidly, like Phoenix, like any other national standard, unfortunately, their rate of growth is a percent of the total population is not as great as ours, so they stand to lose a little money.

>> Michael Grant:
It's a zero sum game, is it not? Your gain will be somebody else's loss?

>> George Pettit:
There is a fixed pie across this state in terms of those sources. It's a redistribution of a fixed pie. Some win, some lose.

>> Michael Grant:
We've got some idea of the mechanics of what's going on here, but let's get a little more into that. This is a survey. It is a statistical survey; correct?

>> George Pettit:
Correct. It is a special mid-decade census under contract with the census bureau. It's being done as a statistical sampling, a survey as opposed to a full count.

>> Michael Grant:
What does that translate to in terms of like one out of how many people are being surveyed to extrapolate the data?

>> George Pettit:
In general on average we're talking about 1 in 13 households. Each community has a little bit different statistical sampling. Gilbert is 1 in 17, because the City of Gilbert thought in order to get a sample, they only needed that level of sample. Phoenix and Mesa, because of their physical size are having their surveys done in two separate areas to make sure they are getting correct counts for their population and diversity of their communities.

>> Michael Grant:
Any actual head counts part of this process?

>> George Pettit:
There are two groups of people that will be physically counted. One is those in-group homes, and a second part will be those in outdoors locations also known as homeless.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay, all right. Obviously one of the concerns that pop up routinely on -- well, not only special census, but also the regular 10-year census, is undercounting of different populations, including minority populations. Has there been an outreach program in relation to that?

>> George Pettit:
The City of Phoenix has shown outstanding leadership in trying to do that outreach program through the faith-based communities and through special communities that they regularly have access to. They have held special meetings and done special promotions. The survey itself is only being done in English and Spanish, but yet they've had a conscious outreach to the Asian communities and other faith-based communities to make sure people understand the benefits to their community of participating. If they choose not to participate, their communities lose money, and that's a fairly significant issue for those of us in the rapidly growing communities, and an even bigger one for Phoenix, because they have to figure out how to provide services over the next five years to their populations. State-shared revenues typically make up 20\% of people's general funds, fire, police, recreation and libraries. It's a fairly significant portion of everyone's budget.

>> Michael Grant:
As you know, illegal immigration is probably one of the most significant, certainly highest profile issues that we have currently. How does that survey go about addressing that issue? First, I assume that that person, legal or illegal, is still part of the count?

>> George Pettit:
Exactly. I think, you know, there has been a statistical sampling of addresses, not as to who lives there based upon any other criteria or the fact that there is a physical address and they are trying to get a count on who lives there. So it's vitally important whether they are here legally, illegally, otherwise, that they fill out the census form and return it, because it's valuable to the community. They are still using our services. They still need to be counted and failure to have the so-called illegal populations counted will have just an adverse effect as if they were never counted as all. That's not good for local government services.

>> Michael Grant:
One of the concerns that are always raised on the census is the confidentiality aspect of it. Not only in terms of illegal immigrants, but just normal human beings who don't want a whole lot of understandably prying into their affairs. What are the confidentiality restrictions?

>> George Pettit:
These are the strongest confidentiality restrictions in America. Title 13 has been challenged in court by any number of communities trying to figure out how to get access to this information. This is the most secure information available. In fact, because we're contracting with a special division of the census bureau, the parent census bureau won't have access to this information. No other federal agency has access to the information collected by the census bureau. So this is the most confidential, the most private, and the most protected information that you are ever going to fill out. Plus in the case of this particular survey, the information being asked for is not that level of detail that some people may have experienced in terms of the nightmare of the census 2000 survey with the long form. We're talking about 9 basic questions and a time frame of 6 minutes to complete it. Basically we want to know what type home this is, how many people are living there, their names and ages. That's it.

>> Michael Grant:
We have talked about the obvious revenue sharing aspects of this, but what other kinds of purposes are -- you know, is the census data put to?

>> George Pettit:
Probably the biggest thing is the validation of our estimates of what our population is when it comes to essential services as transportation planning. That's why the federal highway administration is partnering with us to help pay for the census to collect the most current information we can about the number of people that live here, their traveling characteristics and that type of thing for population forecasting and transportation forecasting. The other thing is trying to get that revenue that fixed piece of pie redistributed in an appropriate way that we have to live with for the next five years.

>> Michael Grant:
In aggregate, not individual form is this kind of data and is this census used for other purposes as well, private economic forecasting purposes, those kinds of things?

>> George Pettit:
Excellent question, no. This is a contract with the census bureau specifically to secure a population count for Maricopa County, Arizona, as of September 1st, 2005. So it's not used for any other information within the census bureau. We aren't even asking information that the census bureau wouldn't look for in terms of those longer forecasts or ability to forecast business purposes or things like that. Census bureau is doing surveys all of the time, but this one is a special contract specifically for counting population in Maricopa County.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay, George Pettit, thank you very much for sharing the information.

>> George Pettit:
Appreciate the chance.

>> Michael Grant:
If you would like more information on the census, there is a link to census 2005 web site on our web site. The address is www.azpbs.org. You can also see transcripts of "Horizon" and find out about upcoming topics.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Many Americans say the border is broken as illegal immigration has become a hot political as well at social issue. Arizona's border crisis is a rook at the phenomenon of immigration, the situation on the border, the role immigrants play in the work force and the politics behind it.

>> Michael Grant:
On Thursday, Governor Napolitano joins us to talk about a number of issues, and Friday, a wrap-up of the week's top stories on the Journalists' Roundtable. That's Friday on "Horizon." Thanks for joining us. I'm Michael Grant. I hope you have a great one. Good night.

senator Jon Kyl


  • U.S. Senator Jon Kyl joins host Michael Grant to talk about his immigration reform bill, border security, Arizona's water supply and the Federal Transportation Bill.
Guests:
  • Senator Jon Kyl -
  • George Pettit - 2005 Census Survey oversight subcommittee and also Gilbert City Manager


View Transcript
>> Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon," immigration reform and border security are among the topics U.S. Senator Senator Jon Kyl joins us to talk about. Plus, a mid-decade census survey will mean more than a billion dollars a year in shared revenue in Maricopa County. We'll talk about what's at stake in your community. Those stories next on "Horizon."

>>Announcer:
"Horizon" is made possible by the friends of channel 8, members who provide financial support to this Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

>> Michael Grant:
Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. Welcome to "Horizon." First up, the latest on hurricane Katrina, paralyzing parts of the gulf coast, two levees broke this morning, sending several feet of water into the heart of New Orleans, one day after the city appeared to have escaped widespread destruction. An estimated 80\% of New Orleans is now under water. Louisiana's Governor is ordering people out of the city. In Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, 59 people are dead, but that number is expected to climb into the hundreds. More than 2 million people are without power. Storm damage is expected to hit at least $25 billion. The American Red Cross says this is the largest mobilization of resources for a single natural disaster in its history. The Grand Canyon chapter of the Red Cross here in Phoenix is actively involved in the disaster relief operation. 25 volunteers from here are deployed to help get storm victims shelter, feed them and provide counseling. Two emergency response vehicles will be provided for feeding victims. An emergency communications response vehicle will provide satellite communications support. The fastest way you can help people affected by hurricane Katrina is by making a financial contribution to the National Disaster Relief Fund. The number to call is 1-800-help-now. That's 1-800-help-now. The disaster in the gulf coast is obviously the prevailing concern across the country. At our nation's capitol, leaders are gathering to put together a disaster relief plan. U.S. Senator Senator Jon Kyl joins us here. Senator Kyl is chairman of the Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security subcommittee and will talk about his border security and immigration reform bill in a moment. In the meantime, there are standing mechanisms in place for emergency disaster declarations and those kinds of things. This does seem to be, however, a disaster of enormous proportions.

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
One of the largest hurricanes ever with incredible damage. We had a conference call this morning of the senate Republican leadership. It is our intention to put together what's called a supplemental emergency appropriation bill to immediately fund the requirements for cleanup, for restoration of the area, for the power, the repair of levees and getting people back on their feet. People's whose homes were damaged can apply for funds under these relief bills. And we'll try to get those folks back on their feet as soon as possible.

>> Michael Grant:
You know, the enormity of this, I don't think we're going to know for quite some time. One of the other aspects of it is unlike say something like 9/11, there is a -- there is a major impact in terms of oil import capabilities, oil production capabilities, and oil refining capabilities, and you may see -- Lord knows the prices are bad enough right now, you may see the prices of oil going much higher? Let's get a fresh microphone on you.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
Fortunately, at least here in the State of Arizona, we get the bulk of our oil from the west coast refined in California, transported from California to Arizona, from there, and so we shouldn't be as directly affected by this event in terms of our gasoline supply here in Arizona, as they will be in the Midwest part of the country.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's shift to border security. We talked about the measure that you introduced last time you were on the program. What's the likelihood that some measure, perhaps including yours or an amalgam of various bills put together will clear this year?

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
Again, we talked about that in our conference call this morning. The majority leader of the senate said he really wanted to take up immigration reform before the end of our session this year. That means probably to take it up in late October, hopefully to conclude it no later than early November. That time is important because the house will also have to act on immigration. Their bill will be different than ours. There will be some amalgam of ideas. There are several different bills and we'll take different parts from different bills, put them together, and then there will have to be a conference committee with the House of Representatives. My own guess is even though I wish we could get this done this year, is that the conference committee will probably extend over into next year and will conclude our work early next year, send a bill to the president, hopefully get it signed so it can begin to work sometime next year. It would be great to complete it this fall. The press of other legislative business is such that may not be possible.

>> Michael Grant:
Speaking of the press of other legislative business, there is the Supreme Court nomination. Is the senate going to act on that in September?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
Yes, and that's one of the things that we have to do. There are other things we have to do, like pass the appropriation bills, fund our troops with the defense bill, and some other things, so there is an awful lot to accomplish, but we've left room in the schedule to ensure that we have a full week for the Roberts' nomination after he is cleared the Senate Judiciary Committee, which I expect him to do the third week in September. So the last week in September will be on the floor with his nomination. There will be a vote. He's not going to be filibustered in my view, and he will be confirmed, my guess is, the Thursday or Friday before the first Monday in October, which is when the new term of the Supreme Court begins.

>> Michael Grant:
Any prediction on the vote counts in the senate?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
I hate to say. I regret to say that my guess is it'll be more partisan than it should be. I think most Democrats will not support him. Virtually all Republicans will, if not all. I wish that he would have more Democrat support, but we'll see. It may be that the hearings go much better for him than I think they might. It may be that something will be revealed that causes less support. I don't think so. I think we've seen now all of the material that is going to come to light. It's now simply a matter of asking him questions, getting his responses, evaluating all of that, voting on him in the committee, and then voting on the full -- at the full senate level.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's go to Iraq for just a couple of minutes. What's your view on where the constitution is or is not at this point in time?

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
Some folks who have been there and looked at the issue carefully have indicated -- and I don't know whether this is really true -- but they indicate that one of the reasons there is not more Sunni support demonstrated for the constitution is they are simply afraid. They are scared to death, and they should be. There have been several Sunni leaders, politicians, people helping to draft the constitution assassinated, but the feeling is that once the matter goes to a vote, that the Sunni community is not necessarily going to come out in strong opposition to the constitution. There could be a lot of support for it. So the expectation is that it will be approved when they have their referendum on the constitution, and this would be a very good sign indeed. But there is always the possibility that enough people in enough provinces would vote against it that it wouldn't achieve the majority that is required under the agreement that was established earlier.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's be optimistic and make the assumption that we've got a favorable referendum in October on the constitution. If I recall correctly, elections are scheduled for December.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
December, correct.

>> Michael Grant:
To seat the government under that constitution. At that point in time, it seems to me a fair measure of our mission there has been accomplished. Is it time at that time for us to start pulling troops from Iraq?

>>Senator Jon Kyl:
Remember, there were two primary reasons for our action there, one of which was, of course, to remove Saddam Hussein, who posed a threat not just to us, but to the Iraqi people and to enable them to establish a new self-representative government. That's one of the reasons. But the other reason was the threat to the United States and rest of the world posed by what we thought were weapons of mass destruction, which did not turn out in large numbers to be there, but nevertheless, with Iraq having the capability of quickly constituting that capability, the elimination of Iraq as a threat from terrorism against the United States or Europe or direct military action against its neighbors. The removal of that threat is accomplished by the establishment of a Democratic government, but the removal of the threat of terrorists is not accomplished until we can say we've secured the country, that it does not need to fear being taken over by terrorists, that the insurgency that exists there now is not going to succeed, and that we've disrupted the terrorism mechanism there in the country today. That may take longer than December. My guess is it's going to take another year or so before we can say that we've achieved that degree of military success.

>> Michael Grant:
Let's come back to the State of Arizona. Issues popped up in the past week, 10 days, in fact a legal defense fund is being assembled on Arizona's behalf, a water war may be brewing between the upper States and the lower states over quite honestly an issue that I was not very familiar with, this is this tributary issue. How do you see that?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
Well, I say to all mothers, if you want to make sure that your son or daughter is well provided for in the future, instruct that child to become a water lawyer, because with every solution to a problem, two more problems arise, as long as water is the squares commodity it is in the west, there will be legal disputes.

>> Michael Grant:
Water doesn't run downhill, it runs to money.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
It runs to money.

>> Michael Grant:
That's right.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
And there have been a lot of funny sayings about whiskey for drinking and water for fighting', but the key here is to understand that even though we resolved a lot of the internal conflicts among Arizonans, primarily Indian tribes making claims for water in the historic Gila River water settlement bill last year, we still have some problems with our neighbors that have to be resolved, many of them were resolved years ago, but because of drought conditions and the growth of particularly Arizona, and especially Nevada, there are new demands on the water, and therefore, new issues arise, and we will have to resolve the issues between the upper basin states and the lower basin states of California, Nevada and Arizona, and perhaps some issues between some of the lower basin states. Hopefully through negotiation, hopefully we won't have to get to litigation. That may be federal legislative fixes down the road, but everyone is approaching this with the attitude that we need to stick together and resolve these issues through negotiation, if at all possible. That's much preferable to having to fight with them in the court or legislative arena.

>> Michael Grant:
Worst case scenario has been projected to be one half of the million-five Arizona has got in its Colorado river water allocation. Is that a realistic worst case in your opinion?

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
I'm not precisely sure. I suppose you could say it's a worst case, but there are a lot of things that are available to us before we would get to that point. And I don't want to scare people here. It is probable that we're going to have to face some kind of action down the road here. Change is hard, but our California friends, for example, have taken a lot of water that Arizona was entitled to under the C.A.P. Upper basin states think we're taking too much of the water. We have obligations to Mexico. All of these things are in play. Plus, there are some new environmental concerns on protecting the Colorado river, and that requires that we keep more water in the river rather than taking it off and using it for ourselves, but they are wonderful opportunities to augment the water supply through things like cloud seeding that people have heard about through canal lining and through other mechanisms. Bottom line here, people shouldn't be afraid. The great history of Arizona -- one of the great aspects of it is people have always been forward thinking, forward looking when it comes to our water problems. People are anticipating these problems. We're thinking about them ahead of the time that the problems are really going to be on us, and I think we'll be able to get them resolved.

>> Michael Grant:
You obviously were key in that settlement that you mentioned. In fact, I can recall two or three years ago you -- I think we were off the air, but you were saying this year I think is the year. It took a couple more years than expected.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
We finally got it.

>> Michael Grant:
With something like this contemplated, when that settlement was put together, because obviously if we were to lose that kind of allocation, those waters would not be available to fuel the settlement.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
That's right. To some extent, the settlement anticipates the possibility that water that we currently have would not be available, but certainly not to the extent of losing half of our C.A.P. supply. That would be a catastrophe in the context of the settlement we put together. We did understand that there were potential threats. I just don't want people to panic here and think we're going to lose half of our water supply. That's not going to happen, but it is going to require a lot of work by a lot of people working in a totally bipartisan way. I talked with the Governor before this today, for example, and we're all committed toward working together ensure that together with our neighbors, we do the best to preserve the water and to allocate it in a manner that is -- that meets the legal requirements of the compact that the Colorado river allocations are based upon. And if some hothead in one of the states decides to start filing lawsuits, it will be a problem, because we'll have to defend they will and who knows what the outcome will be. I don't think that will happen. I think through negotiation and good will, we can resolve these issues.

>> Michael Grant:
All right, Arizona Senator Senator Jon Kyl, my condolences on having to return to the nation's capitol, but give it your best shot.

>> Senator Jon Kyl:
We've got tough issues, but they'll be great to work on, thanks.

>> Michael Grant:
Shared revenue in Maricopa County communities is currently being funded by population figures that were compiled from the 2000 census. A number of the cities in the valley have expanded and need a new count to distribute the funding more equitably. In a moment we will talk about what some of those communities stand to receive. First, Merry Lucero tells us what we can expect from the questionnaire.

>> Merry Lucero:
Count me in. That's the slogan on signs lining Central Avenue in Phoenix. They urge people to fill out and mail back the mid-decade census surveys that will arrive in one in 13 Maricopa County mailboxes in the coming days.

>> Jay Occhiogrosso:
Basically the questions are did you live here on September 1st, if you did, how many people lived here. Then we ask for the names of the people who lived there as well as their gender.

>> Merry Lucero:
Local census workers have challenges to meet getting people to return the questionnaire.

>>Jay Occhiogrosso:
First, when it arrives, trying to discriminate it from junk mail which people throw away, we try our best to make it stand out, and let everybody know that this is legitimate business, very important, and some other things that get in the way are people not trusting the fact that this is confidential. We never share information with anybody. The IRS, the INS, FBI, anybody like that. It's totally confidential. Nobody outside of the census bureau will see anything that you put on your form.

>>Merry Lucero:
And there are serious penalties for sharing census information.

>> Jay Occhiogrosso:
Anything that's on there is protected by Title 13, which means that if anybody in this office or anybody who works for the census bureau were to disseminate this information any further than other census bureau employees, they would face a quarter million fine and five years in prison.

>> Merry Lucero:
The census bureau has done extensive public education and even public service announcements with local personalities, and will make every effort to get a response to the survey.

>> Jay Occhiogrosso:
What will happen, at first a mailer will go out with a blue census questionnaire. Hopefully we'll get a lot of return from that first mailing. If not, the people who don't mail back, we'll send a reminder postcard two weeks later. Hopefully that'll get more response. The people who haven't responded still, we'll send a second questionnaire two weeks after the postcard, four weeks after the first questionnaire, and hopefully that'll get a good majority of the remainder of the folks who may have thrown it away or disregarded it.

>> Merry Lucero:
Those who still don't respond will get a phone call and ultimately a census worker knocking at the door. The survey costs an estimated $7.5 million to do paid for by local communities and federal sources. The population count will be the basis for distributing a billion dollars a year of shared revenue in Maricopa County.

>> Michael:
Joining me now with more on census 2005, George Pettit, the chairman of the census survey oversight subcommittee and also Gilbert City manager. George thanks for joining us.

>> George Pettit:
Thanks for having me.

>> Michael Grant:
I have to assume there are valley cities that have real dollars at stake here?

>> George Pettit:
There is a keen interest in the state shared revenues in terms of sales tax, revenue tax, gasoline tax, all of those things that come true and they can only be adjusted based on a census. That's the reason behind this particular survey, and this particular case, for example, Gilbert, right now, we're receiving state shared revenues based upon a population of 109,000, which was our count in 2000 and now our population estimate is around 175,000. So there is about a 60\% shortfall in the case of Gilbert and other valley communities have similar problems.

>> Michael Grant:
I would expect maybe a Chandler to be in the same kind of model?

>> George Pettit:
Any number of communities, yes.

>> Michael Grant:
Buckeye?

>> George Pettit:
The West Valley has exploded, I think anywhere from Queen Creek that people don't think of in terms of being the metropolitan area. They have grown leaps and bounds next to us. Other communities that are still growing very quickly and rapidly, like Phoenix, like any other national standard, unfortunately, their rate of growth is a percent of the total population is not as great as ours, so they stand to lose a little money.

>> Michael Grant:
It's a zero sum game, is it not? Your gain will be somebody else's loss?

>> George Pettit:
There is a fixed pie across this state in terms of those sources. It's a redistribution of a fixed pie. Some win, some lose.

>> Michael Grant:
We've got some idea of the mechanics of what's going on here, but let's get a little more into that. This is a survey. It is a statistical survey; correct?

>> George Pettit:
Correct. It is a special mid-decade census under contract with the census bureau. It's being done as a statistical sampling, a survey as opposed to a full count.

>> Michael Grant:
What does that translate to in terms of like one out of how many people are being surveyed to extrapolate the data?

>> George Pettit:
In general on average we're talking about 1 in 13 households. Each community has a little bit different statistical sampling. Gilbert is 1 in 17, because the City of Gilbert thought in order to get a sample, they only needed that level of sample. Phoenix and Mesa, because of their physical size are having their surveys done in two separate areas to make sure they are getting correct counts for their population and diversity of their communities.

>> Michael Grant:
Any actual head counts part of this process?

>> George Pettit:
There are two groups of people that will be physically counted. One is those in-group homes, and a second part will be those in outdoors locations also known as homeless.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay, all right. Obviously one of the concerns that pop up routinely on -- well, not only special census, but also the regular 10-year census, is undercounting of different populations, including minority populations. Has there been an outreach program in relation to that?

>> George Pettit:
The City of Phoenix has shown outstanding leadership in trying to do that outreach program through the faith-based communities and through special communities that they regularly have access to. They have held special meetings and done special promotions. The survey itself is only being done in English and Spanish, but yet they've had a conscious outreach to the Asian communities and other faith-based communities to make sure people understand the benefits to their community of participating. If they choose not to participate, their communities lose money, and that's a fairly significant issue for those of us in the rapidly growing communities, and an even bigger one for Phoenix, because they have to figure out how to provide services over the next five years to their populations. State-shared revenues typically make up 20\% of people's general funds, fire, police, recreation and libraries. It's a fairly significant portion of everyone's budget.

>> Michael Grant:
As you know, illegal immigration is probably one of the most significant, certainly highest profile issues that we have currently. How does that survey go about addressing that issue? First, I assume that that person, legal or illegal, is still part of the count?

>> George Pettit:
Exactly. I think, you know, there has been a statistical sampling of addresses, not as to who lives there based upon any other criteria or the fact that there is a physical address and they are trying to get a count on who lives there. So it's vitally important whether they are here legally, illegally, otherwise, that they fill out the census form and return it, because it's valuable to the community. They are still using our services. They still need to be counted and failure to have the so-called illegal populations counted will have just an adverse effect as if they were never counted as all. That's not good for local government services.

>> Michael Grant:
One of the concerns that are always raised on the census is the confidentiality aspect of it. Not only in terms of illegal immigrants, but just normal human beings who don't want a whole lot of understandably prying into their affairs. What are the confidentiality restrictions?

>> George Pettit:
These are the strongest confidentiality restrictions in America. Title 13 has been challenged in court by any number of communities trying to figure out how to get access to this information. This is the most secure information available. In fact, because we're contracting with a special division of the census bureau, the parent census bureau won't have access to this information. No other federal agency has access to the information collected by the census bureau. So this is the most confidential, the most private, and the most protected information that you are ever going to fill out. Plus in the case of this particular survey, the information being asked for is not that level of detail that some people may have experienced in terms of the nightmare of the census 2000 survey with the long form. We're talking about 9 basic questions and a time frame of 6 minutes to complete it. Basically we want to know what type home this is, how many people are living there, their names and ages. That's it.

>> Michael Grant:
We have talked about the obvious revenue sharing aspects of this, but what other kinds of purposes are -- you know, is the census data put to?

>> George Pettit:
Probably the biggest thing is the validation of our estimates of what our population is when it comes to essential services as transportation planning. That's why the federal highway administration is partnering with us to help pay for the census to collect the most current information we can about the number of people that live here, their traveling characteristics and that type of thing for population forecasting and transportation forecasting. The other thing is trying to get that revenue that fixed piece of pie redistributed in an appropriate way that we have to live with for the next five years.

>> Michael Grant:
In aggregate, not individual form is this kind of data and is this census used for other purposes as well, private economic forecasting purposes, those kinds of things?

>> George Pettit:
Excellent question, no. This is a contract with the census bureau specifically to secure a population count for Maricopa County, Arizona, as of September 1st, 2005. So it's not used for any other information within the census bureau. We aren't even asking information that the census bureau wouldn't look for in terms of those longer forecasts or ability to forecast business purposes or things like that. Census bureau is doing surveys all of the time, but this one is a special contract specifically for counting population in Maricopa County.

>> Michael Grant:
Okay, George Pettit, thank you very much for sharing the information.

>> George Pettit:
Appreciate the chance.

>> Michael Grant:
If you would like more information on the census, there is a link to census 2005 web site on our web site. The address is www.azpbs.org. You can also see transcripts of "Horizon" and find out about upcoming topics.

>> Larry Lemmons:
Many Americans say the border is broken as illegal immigration has become a hot political as well at social issue. Arizona's border crisis is a rook at the phenomenon of immigration, the situation on the border, the role immigrants play in the work force and the politics behind it.

>> Michael Grant:
On Thursday, Governor Napolitano joins us to talk about a number of issues, and Friday, a wrap-up of the week's top stories on the Journalists' Roundtable. That's Friday on "Horizon." Thanks for joining us. I'm Michael Grant. I hope you have a great one. Good night.

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